In this weekend episode, Victor Davis Hanson and cohost Sami Winc examine the recent tariff policy and Liberation Day speech, the Great Depression and current economic policy, and Gavin Newsom’s machination and the no-alternative Democrats.
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Here’s the irony: if the wise and street smart Trump proves to be correct with his reciprocal tariff strategy, there will be no congratulations from the highly skeptical legacy media. They will simply move on to being nay sayers and attempted sabateurs of his next “thinking out of the box “ policy. God Bless You, Donald J. Trump.
Victor, Victor, Victor, when speaking on the “Great Depression” and how FDR mismanaged it why in the world did you not speak of the short-lived “Forgotten Depression “ of 1921-1922, and how Harding’s governmental inaction allowed it to end in just 18 months, bringing on the “Roaring Twenties”. Please, please speak to your audience about. The magic of the invisible hand of capitalism that allowed this to happen.
Linda, I am a Huge Fan (25 years or more) of VDH & now I am huge fan of you. Your comment echos my feelings exactly – Well Said!
I enjoyed the information on the Great Depression and your insights on President Trump and the tariffs (non tariffs).
Thank you!
Tom N.
Yes, agree with your points 1 and 2…….Dr. Hansen’s historical perspectives are most intriguing. His information like “Japan after the war said fire bombing ended the war more than the atomic bombs” is valuable in seeking the truth.
With Victor’s knowledge of history I would be interested in his comparison of backgrounds and personality traits of the “out of the woodwork” innovators he mentions like Patton, Sherman and ancient leaders.
Dear Dr. Hanson,
My comments are less deep and thought-provoking than the above. I just want to thank you for your thoughts on Liberation Day tariffs. After listening to nothing but negative comments and doomsday predictions (and letting them make me feel quite discouraged), your podcast removed my discouraging thoughts and made me feel positive again. Thank you!
And thank you for all your podcasts and your erudition on so many diverse subjects…you and they make every week a positive one.
Sincerely,
Linda, a huge fan
Dear Dr. Hanson,
In an internet age saturated with all manner of punditry for the price of a 5-second ad, I really, really appreciate the contributions from those rare individuals, such as yourself, whose opinions have a foundation in *scholarship*. Your featured historical segues (e.g. Russo-Japanese war, Panama Canal, WW-I, WW-II, and now Great Depression) are, by themselves, worth the price of admission.
If I may be so bold as to make a request for future subject material that also pertains to this important period of the last century, would you please consider speaking on either of two subjects (or both, pretty please with Sun-maid raisins on top) that have piqued my interest:
1) What can you teach us about the role of the major European neutrals in WW II– Spain, Switzerland, Ireland, Sweden, and Portugal? How did they manage what must have been a delicate balancing act? How did they fare in the aftermath?
2) What can you teach us about the circumstances that lead to the seemingly tit-for-tat deconstruction of institutional checks-and-balances with the successive passage of the 17th Amendment (1913), the Reapportionment Act of 1929, the (albeit unsuccessful) Judicial Procedures Reform bill (1937), and finally the Presidential term limits of the 22nd Amendment (1951)? Why did Americans reject Madison’s prescriptions for balanced power? What have been the ramifications? How much has the growth and influence of the federal government been affected by such “tinkering?”
comment and critical thought about the Great Depression? Too large a topic, but I would suggest:
H.W. Arndt’s book that I read years ago — Economic Lessons of the Nineteen Thirties. As a quick refresher, see this –> https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/FOREIGNStudies30-WORLD-2.pdf?x85095
That said, almost all serious discussions of the era neglect the proliferation of multiple international cartels that divided allocations and technologies via secret agreement. See Cartels in Action, or Hexner’s, International Cartels…. and James S. Martin’s, All Honorable Men
answering VDH’s narrow question –Valuations of stocks last week- or tomorrow? Prices are contextual. So at one moment in time, relative to future earnings (premised on a whole slew of assumptions about the future) the price/earnings ratio of PLTR stock was north of 800. After Trump’s new tariff levels, the price of PLTR stock fell and now is about 389. Perceptions about its value changed. Stock & bond prices change constantly. So under some conditions, high PE’s seem rational. There is no absolute value for stocks or bonds. Values are contextual.
Eight years of WHAT administration????
Trump had 4 (sort of), Biden had 4 (sort of), and now Trump has had a little over 2 months in this admin. You have to go all the way back to the disastrous Obammy to get 8 years(even though Obammy was the puppet master for Biden’s fake shell, it still was not 8 years)
I tried to enter a serious, but lengthy reply to VDH’s questions. Space was limited….only a few sentences uploaded. …. then this space crashed and erased my submission. Is there way to contribute via email?
I have always been bemused by the people worshiping FDR for bringing us out of the Depression. I came across a (obviously not) famous letter written to him by his Treasury Secretary, Robert Morgenthau on 9 May 1939, eight years into his Presidency:
No, gentlemen, we have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and if I am wrong, as far as I am concerned, somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises…
But why not let’s come to grips? And as I say, all I am interested in is to really see this country prosperous and this form of Government continue, because after eight years if we can’t make a success somebody else is going to claim the right to make it and he’s got the right to make the trial. I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started.. . . . And an enormous debt to boot! We are just sitting here and fiddling and I am just wearing myself out and getting sick. Because why? I can’t see any daylight. I want it for my people, for my children, and your children. I want to see some daylight and I don’t see it…
You’ve answered a lot of questions I had—thank you.
Couple of thoughts:
1. The Great Depression: I think the two main interpretations are the Keynsians and the monetarists (esp. Friedman, whom VDH discussed several times during this podcast). I’d like to point out that there is at least one other school of thought which was mostly founded in Murray Rothbard’s “America’s Great Depression.” This, essentially, pinned the blame on the Fed Reserve playing with the money supply throughout the 1920s. Whereas Friedman faults the in/actions of he Fed, Rothbard just blames the Fed in toto.
2. Smoot-Hawley: I don’t know how many economists argue that the S-H Tariff caused the GD. The argument, which I think makes sense, is that S-H, was a catalyst in turning the Wall Street collapse into a worldwide depression. Although S-H didn’t pass until 1930, it had been wandering through Congress for a couple of years. The collapse gave renewed impetus to the bill and contributed to it passing. However, as it became obvious that it would be passed, other countries began to impose preemptive and/or retaliatory tariffs. Paul Johnson discussed this in “Modern Times.”
As always, a brilliant, insightful podcast, even if I disagree around the margins.
The Great Depression was caused solely by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. Tariff revision started in Congress in December, 1928. By October 1929, many investors had begun to realize that enormous trade restrictions were in the offing. They saw what was coming and began to pull out. Unless you do the math, you cannot begin to appreciate the enormous effect the tariff rate has on prices.
You can find the math at http://www.civilwarcause.com/relationship.html and https://www.civilwarcause.com/relationship/relationshipmath.html
Most academic historians, it appears, do not do math. Perhaps it is because they get their money by means of government like the protectionists.
There is a vast amount of political-economic history that has yet to be generally known. If you want to know more, just ask.