Current polls, pundits, and politicos insist that the 2024 race is a sure rematch between former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden.
It may well turn out that way.
But in past election cycles, summer polls 15 months before the general election usually did not mean much.
In December 2003, the CBS poll headline blared, “Dean Pulls Away in Dem Race.” Howard Dean would eventually be clobbered by nominee John Kerry.
In the Gallup Poll of late June 2007, Hillary Clinton still continued to enjoy her wide lead in the Democratic primary over eventual nominee and elected president Barack Obama.
On the Republican side, Gallup noted of its summer 2007 polls that, “There has been little serious threat to the frontrunner, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani”—who bombed out early in the race.
About this time in 2015, Jeb Bush was leading Donald Trump in the Republican primary. Or as CNN characterized their summer poll, “He [Bush] holds a significant lead over the second-place candidate Trump.”
By January 2016, the favorite, can-do Wisconsin governor Scott Walker was leading all candidates by a substantial margin as they headed for the Iowa caucuses.
There are lots of reasons to believe that 2024 may prove to be the most volatile race in recent memory.
Not since 1912—when third-party ex-president Theodore Roosevelt challenged incumbent President William Howard Taft in a three-way race with Woodrow Wilson—have two presidents run against each other.
Both, remember, lost that year to the far less experienced Wilson.
Second, Donald Trump is currently the target of at least four state and federal prosecutors.
Millions of Americans feel that current and likely future indictments are patently political. The Trump prosecutions would never have gone ahead had he not run for the presidency a third time.
Leftwing strategists believe that these partisan indictments will earn Trump Republican empathy.
The legal persecutions supposedly will ensure him the nomination, but then intensify during the 2024 general campaign to bleed him out—ensuring a Democratic victory.
Perhaps.
But the Left’s weaponization of the legal system is playing with fire.
They have no real idea whether their hounding will result in an indicted, inert Trump at election time, or fuel more empathy to empower him over his eventual Democratic rival, regardless of his legal status.
Or will the nonending legal morass eventually wear out Republican primary voters, resulting in their rage at such unfairness helping another Republican candidate?
Third, despite Democratic denials, there is mounting evidence—from emails, laptop communications, IRS whistleblowers, testimony from Biden family business associates, and likely bank records—that Joe Biden was directly involved in his son’s illegal activities.
Yet daily new details elicit only incoherent fury from Biden—especially since he clearly has serially lied that he had no knowledge of his son Hunter’s business misadventures.
Fourth, not since Woodrow Wilson’s incapacity rendered him bedridden and all but incommunicado for the last 17 months of his presidency, has a president appeared so enfeebled.
The 80-year-old Biden has fallen repeatedly. He often slurs his words to the point of inaudibility.
His halting gait radiates frailty.
Often aides must remind Biden where he is.
Biden appears frustrated and angry at his increasing cognitive decline—forgetting the names of foreign leaders and close associates.
To be blunt, Joe Biden is one more serious fall from physical incapacity—and a Vice President Kamala Harris stewardship of his presidency.
Increasing leftwing leaks and rumors spread alarm about Biden’s legal problems. Liberal writers chart his mental confusion. Progressive columnists decry his treatment of his illegitimate granddaughter.
Apparently Democratic insiders hope Biden does not run for reelection—but by all accounts must finish his term to prevent a Kamala Harris presidency in either 2023-4 or thereafter.
So, the leaks of Biden’s impropriety and incapacity are aimed at ensuring Biden does not run in 2024.
Yet they apparently must not prove actionable enough to abort his current presidency.
Fifth, the first Republican primary debate is still almost a month away. And debates often have proven the graveyard of sure-thing front-runners.
Donald Trump has understandably indicated it would be foolish to debate while enjoying a sizable lead in the polls.
Nevertheless, it is hard to imagine that Trump, a proven and skilled debater, would pass up the stage of a multimillion-person televised audience only to be ritually trashed in absentia on it.
It is even more difficult to envision a frail Joe Biden holding his own against either Democratic rivals or a Republican contender in the general election.
Add it all up, and the presidential race is unpredictable with an array of known “unknowns.”
The only certain fact is that anyone who currently declares the outcomes of the primary races or general election a foregone conclusion is utterly delusional.
The only for polls that matter? November 2024: Trump v. Biden in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin. Can’t win there? Won’t win the White House…
Yes, Ron is a better choice. But I don’t believe Biden makes it into 2024.
They can rig PA, GA, AZ, WI, MI and NV against DeSantis just as well as they can against Trump.
Do not put it past the democrat cabal to repeat actions of the 2020 election.
What we are seeing is national polls when what is important is state-by-state polls. At this point, they may be the same, but what we don’t know is the level of never-Trumpers or never Biden among all classes of voters.
Like watching a tornado and trying to predict just where the cow will land.
To me, it seems utterly ridiculous that biden won the first election. To think that this country is being run by anyone but the crooked communists who pull his strings is likewise…
Most likely He didn’t, but they are covering up the data. Common sense says no way. More votes than Obama and in Philadelphia? No way, that’s my neck of the woods.
The Democrats have stolen a page from the Russian playbook. Just as in the 2016 election, when allegations were flying fast and furious about Russian collusion with Trump, the real goal of Russian interference was simply chaos. They had no dog in the race, per se, Trump being an unknown quantity, and Hillary being a progressivist scold, but they rolled the dice on promoting the Steele dossier anyway, knowing that confusion is sometimes as good as strategy in determining an outcome. They had a more long-term objective than just upsetting one election: they wanted to upset the whole basis for democracy in the United States by pitting one group against the other. That strategy is still very much in place.
If you ever saw the old Miller Lite ads ( circa 1987 ) with Conrad Dobler, https://youtu.be/hkM9VdOcjGA you understand the role Russia is playing.
( Unfortunately, Miller Brewing learned nothing from the current Bud Light advertising debacle. They have followed suit, going woke. Let’s hope woke is broke. )
You’ve been watching too much CNN & “The View” if you believe the Russians played a role in the Steele dossier.
Bingo!
You are not a serious commentator…….at all.
RUSSIA – RUSSIA – RUSSIA!
They could not have done so without knowing first the DOJ/FBI/national media would be working with them.
Thanks. I forgot about those great Miller Lite ads of yesteryear.
IMO Russia, Putin, would prefer Biden over Trump. Whether Trump can bring Putin to the table and stop the war in Ukraine is a stretch but clearly Biden has no cards to play there other than to keep Zelensky engaged. Is Biden just trying to distract voters from his own troubles, certainly he is failing there also!
The media has a long record of ginning up elections early, through polls, partisan opinion segments, and shilling for their preferred candidate. In the current corrupt corporate media environment this practice continues, and is even ratcheted up to new heights.
The alleged and potentially criminal corruption related to Biden and many in his family, plus Biden’s weaponizing of the DOJ, and FBI against his opponent Trump, have not been seen before IMO. New evidence of Biden bribery, and perhaps even extortion, keeps poring in, while the DOJ, FBI, and media avert their eyes. This cannot continue, so it probably won’t.
On the Republican side, I wouldn’t count DeSantis out yet, but he can’t just wait for mostly fabricated prosecutions to take Trump down. Gavin Newsom, and who knows who else are waiting in the wings on the Democrat side. Joe won’t be running in 2024 – whether he makes it to the end of his first term is anybody’s guess.
Some would have us believe that the former Oregon State linebacker will make a run around right end.
As smart,and as informative as anyone I’ve come across in years…bases information on research,history,and facts.Thank God for his dedicated work!
Never a dull (and rarely a reassuring) moment.
Dr. Hanson, you are calcium in the backbone of reason.
I suspect that your presence in American decision making is more influential than even most aware citizens realize.
We can certainly hope so. Professor Hanson is clearly the voice of conservative reason today.
Howard Dean was the darling of the progressive left until Howard Dean clobbered Howard Dean.
As an American and a conservative Republican I want to win. But Trump can’t. He will do to the US WHAT HE DID TO PA and GA get DEMS elected. Since his election he has lost every election. Worse all the candidates he supports lost. At least 12 House seats as well as Senate seats. Look what Biden has done by getting the Whole of Govt backing him (or leading him). Trump complained about the deep state but did not let his officials stay in power long enough to put their people in power. And he has no loyalty. Spent much more $s attacking DeSantis than supporting candidates. Your fired is not a management style. Let’s stand by Trump to win his legal cases and vote for someone who can win an election.
Over 80% of DeSantis money is from big donors, and they’re maxed out. However, over 80% of Trump’s are small, individual donors. Also, please explain how DeSantis can win the general and Trump can’t? DeSantis is a 90s Bible Belt Bush throwback to most outside of Florida, even in the South. I’m in Ga, and we wonder why DeSantis gets all these props when he wasn’t even as good as RINO Kemp during covid. Florida will go blue with its imports ( probably here too ). Trump was impeded by his own party, impeached twice and not defended, obstructed by the bureaucracy, and had literal treason committed against him. If DeSantis is MORE hardcore than Trump ( he’s not ) then what do you think will happen to him? If DeSantis can’t win the primary, how could he win the general? What good has come from his candidacy? All I get is ” He’s a good man and a good conservative and nice blah blah blah.” What a load of dogsqueeze, and what a bunch of weenies we have on the right. I predict the “It was Trump and his supporters fault” narrative beginning the day after the election…after those saying it stay home and pout. Some of us, the ones that knew Trump had it in ’16, knew what the outcome of the DeSantis campaign was going to be the whole time, yet here we are. Sigh.
Twitter ( X ?) has my feed full of DeSantis campaign and DeSantis PAC promoted tweets…all attacking Trump and his supporters, claiming victimhood for snarky replies, etc. This has been going on for a week. He layed off staff and obviously put the money into a massive social media push. So you know, the tweets are ratio’d big time, if you know what that means, and the campaign is failing. More is happening than you can see.
My wife asked me a great question the other day: Is there one positive outcome from Ron DeSantis entering the race for 24? For the country, the race, or the candidates themselves? I could not find one. Sure, I hear the ” nothing wrong with healthy debate on our side ” stuff, but I think that’s a hollow excuse.
True, it is folly to predict the presidential nominees of the 2024 election. Except one thing bodes well for the predictability of the Republican nominee.
Trump, unlike the other rising stars mentioned by Victor who did not go the distance, did go the distance. Prior to the 2016 election he rose in the polls and did not fade. While I don’t have a crystal ball (of course) I am betting he will not fade this time either.
If he is put on trial, and if his reasonable request of a televised trial is granted, that will work tremendously to his advantage. Viewership would be akin to the O.J. Simpson “trial of the century”.
(I say it is a reasonable request because never before have we had a former president prosecuted. It is reasonable to believe that politics just may play a large part in this. Therefore, the American people deserve that the trial be fully transparent by it being televised.)
Does it even matter? Who can govern those that believe trans women are women?
“The only certain fact is that anyone who currently declares the outcomes of the primary races or general election a foregone conclusion is utterly delusional.”
I learnt this phrase — Analysis paralysis.
I also learnt this phrase — FUD (Fear, uncertainty and doubt)
I may be delusional, but I sincerely believe TRUMP will either get re-elected, or a Dem will be president in 2024.
Also, Victor is so certain Biden won’t run in 2024. Yet, he thinks whoever is certain of the 2024 primary/general outcome is delusional? Does he include himself in that camp?