Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
The Trump administration has bent over backward to negotiate an end to Iran’s grand plans to develop nuclear weapons—before the June 2025 bombing, afterward, and again during the follow-up diplomacy of spring 2026.
Yet Iran is unlikely ever to abandon its pursuit of the bomb voluntarily. With nuclear weapons, Tehran hopes to become the de facto hegemon of the Middle East. Only then could it effectively coerce or deter both Israel and the wealthy Arab Gulf states. And that is the charitable view, one that excludes the possibility of a messianic Shiite theocracy believing that eliminating the “one-bomb” state of Israel would forever ensure the Shiite minority permanent preeminence in the pantheon of Islamic jihadists.
After three months of intermittent war, we are now better acquainted with Iran’s intentions and the realities of the conflict.
The Iranian regime has never viewed “negotiations” as a path leading to an ultimate “deal.” At best, the regime’s supposedly “elected” government plays good cop, while the bad cop theocratic henchmen periodically violate whatever understandings have been reached. Accordingly, talks remain perpetually fluid, punctuated by delays, pauses, and renewed demands. The regime’s art of “dealing” is not aimed at resolution but at gaining strategic advantage by postponing any military effort that leads to their demise. The regime’s mere survival is broadcast as victory, whatever the damage to the country.
As a result, Iran does not necessarily regard overwhelming military defeat on the battlefield as a strategic loss. The regime believes its own advantage lies in the long term and beyond the battlefield itself. For nearly half a century, this wicked regime has survived through propaganda, bloodcurdling threats, slaughtering civilians at home and abroad, terrorist proxies and clients, and mastery of both global politics and the internal politics of its adversaries, especially in the U.S. and Europe.
Its strategy is also to feign detachment from reality and appear capable of doing anything to anyone anywhere at any time. Iran’s leaders are like the crazy assailant on the subway who feels he can do anything he wishes, since most people either fear his antics or don’t wish to stoop to his level to stop him.
All threats, ultimatums, and vows are also not credible. They are designed to bluff or mislead opponents into miscalculations. The more left-leaning American presidents, whether Clinton, Obama, or Biden, reached out to dialogue and normalize with Iran, the more the Iranians loathed these presidents for being weak.
They view Europe and the U.S. not as nations, but as various successive governments and administrations that, to various degrees, can be manipulated. And they have utter contempt for perceived Western appeasement. Magnanimity they interpret as weakness to be exploited, never as kindness to be reciprocated.
This Iran war is unlike our past conflicts in the Middle East. So far, there is no American use of ground troops. The bombing (and thus the war itself) has been historically short, lasting only around 38 days—unlike the two Iraq wars, Afghanistan, Libya, and Serbia.
In terms of size, population, resources, wealth, and military strength, Iran has been the most formidable adversary the United States has faced in the Middle East. Yet our losses in this war so far have been historically low, while the damage to the Iranian industrial, nuclear, and military infrastructure has been immense and unprecedented.
Unlike past conflicts, where combatants often struggled to distinguish friend from foe in places such as the streets of Fallujah, the villages of Helmand Province, or the rice paddies of South Vietnam, this war has been uniquely suited to overwhelming American airpower. The United States has clearly won the shooting war, though it has yet to secure the peace.
One problem is the scarcity of accurate information. We have only rumors and spotty regime-fed reports of what is actually going on inside Iran, given there are neither American ground troops nor embedded Western reporters there.
What comes out of Iran is the chronic form of lying associated with “Baghdad Bob” during the Second Gulf War. No one yet knows the full extent of the damage to the regime or the viability of the Iranian resistance. The result is that Iran is likely to be in far worse shape than it lets on.
Even so, a militarily weakened Iran seems to hope that escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz will raise gas prices, at home and worldwide, and cost Trump the midterms, before American sanctions, blockades, and freezing assets will bankrupt the country.
The United States is now weighing two choices. One is to end the war and get some sort of deal, assured that it has already done close to a decade’s worth of damage to Iran, and perhaps more if sanctions persist.
The United States would seek to negotiate an exit that lowers oil prices and staves off political catastrophe in the November midterms. America’s anxious Gulf allies might support—or even now insist upon—such a negotiated settlement, assuming that Iran has been sufficiently defanged in the short term, that their vulnerable oil infrastructure remains secure for the time being, that anti-Iran sentiment in the Arab world remains strong, and that the Iranian people will grow increasingly restive if the regime continues to ignore their poverty and instead chooses to rebuild its shattered arsenals and revive its bankrupt Arab terrorist proxies abroad.
Yet the long-term limitations of such a limited and transitory victory are twofold. First, Iran’s regime would likely consolidate its hold on power, claiming that its reputation abroad has grown, and that its mere survival should be seen as an incredible victory.
Secondly, Iran would likely rebuild and wait to go nuclear until the arrival of a president akin to Obama or Biden, convinced then that there would be no danger of another American intervention and that the new American Left sympathizes with Iran’s anti-Israel agenda and therefore its nuclear aspirations. The regime has good reason, given the current new Socialist-Islamist Democrat Party, that a future Democrat president would revive Obama’s bankrupt visions of empowering a Shia crescent from Tehran to Yemen to “balance” Israel and the Gulf monarchies.
An alternative course is a riskier one that could involve greater casualties and Iranian missile and drone strikes against Israel and the Gulf states. It would begin with issuing a final one-week deadline for Iran to concede to U.S. demands to denuclearize, hand over all its enriched uranium, dismantle its remaining missile forces, cease subsidizing Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, and stop interfering with international traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Otherwise, for a week or so, the U.S. would strike the remaining regime grandees who believe they are still in charge of the government, along with dual-use bridges, subterranean nuclear depots, power plants, island ports and docks, weapons arsenals and factories, and the remnants of the Iranian mosquito navy. It would then open the Strait of Hormuz, leave a guardian force to keep it navigable, declare victory, go home, and pivot to the economy.
The point would be to inflict enough damage on the Iranian theocracy and its appendages to end the current off-and-on war. Either such Iranian concessions or such destruction would humiliate the regime, neuter its military, and halt its nuclear aspirations for decades, leaving it ripe for internal uprising—and reminding the world there is a limit to unpredictable U.S. patience and placidity.
The current regime needs destroyed. These peace talks are bogus. The only think I can think of as to why trump is pushing peace is that he knows Iran has nuclear weapons and doesn’t want a nuclear war in the Middle East. I think trump is hiding this from Netanyahu because he knows that if Israel knew they would immediately nuke Iran. There has to be some reason why trump has been behaving so stupidly. There is a report by a CIA analyst that North Korea has sold warheads to Iran and Iran has the missiles to mount them on. In recent talks with Iran Rubio and others were told by Iran that they had enough material to make 11 bombs. If the U.S. and Israel were to attack to destroy completely the entire regime then Iran would use the bombs. Iran is led by a fanatical religious group of crazed people who believe their Mahdi is soon to appear and lead them to world domination. If Israel is backed into a corner they will use their nukes, I have no doubt of that.
Your analysis is spot on as usual! Jack London wrote about the ‘Law of the Jungle’ where animals see kindness as weakness and we seem to be dealing with animals in Iran. It’s very sad that the rest of the Western world doesn’t join President Trump in his effort to eliminate this threat to the world. History will judge the outcome and President Trump along with the Prime Minister of ISRAEL are the only leaders capable of a successful outcome. I do agree with you that the riskier approach is more likely to succeed. High reward comes with high risk!
Trump has totally misplayed his hand and it makes me very nervous that he has misjudged the resliaincy of the IRGC..which is mind boggling. His constant threats to bomb them into submission shows a total lack of understanding of their mindset and I think he is ignoring his advisors. This shows weakness and indecisivenss. At the end of the day, I think he’s going to fold so gas prices can return to a more favorable level but he’s going to lose the mid terms for the Republicans and then complain for two years how it was somebody ele’s fault. I hope it works out but I’m betting against it.
The best tactic for the USA to use in its current war with Iran would simply be to “hit them in the wallet”. That is what Scipio Africanus did when he seized Hannibal’s war chest in Spain by capturing New Carthage (Carthago Nova) in a sudden, brilliantly executed assault in 209 BC, where the Carthaginian treasury, hostages, and military stores were concentrated. That city was the financial heart of Carthaginian operations in Iberia and helped pay for his war against Rome in Italy.
Only the USA can wage war on credit (via the Federal Reserve). All others pay cash. Just ask Russia. Zelinsky has been destroying the Russian oil and gas production facilities because he understands that is what is necessary to get Russia to simply “go away and never come back”.
The blockade in the Sea of Oman helps limit Iranian oil deliverability but does not completely solve the problem. The USA should destroy all of the existing the oil facilities on Karg Island. Oil is Iran’s biggest export. Once the deliverability mechanism for that export is devasted for at least a decade, China would have no interest in helping Iran and the western Persian Gulf countries would breathe easier. I am not the only person who thinks this way.
Absent from these discussions regarding military action is that the US’ supply of munitions is critically low. A significant proportion of our stockpile was expended in the main attack, and what with our very diminished production capacity, there won’t be any large re-supply coming.
President Trump must keep consideration of China and Taiwan near the top of the priorities- should China finally pull the trigger, we’ll be out of munitions in a week or so.
Our pitifully limited factories and supply lines won’t be able to support our people out there in the east, and Iran won’t look like nearly as much a problem as it does today.
Your last 2 paragraphs are 100% correct. That is the course of action that should be taken. No ifs, ands, or buts. And done soon. I have no interest in Trump preening about being some “peace” president. He needs to finish the job.
Revised: Boots on the ground would be needed if the nuclear dust is not surrendered. Not necessarily American boots though. Hypothetically, a beach head could be established, then we could start arming and training the locals for ground operations supported by our air supremacy. I can’t imagine a scenario where we don’t win decisively as long as we have air superiority. Any casualties would be regrettable, but you’d think they could be minimized with our air power.
Boots on the ground would be needed if the nuclear dust is not surrendered. Not necessarily American boots though. Hypothetically, a beach head could be established, then we could start arming and training the locals for ground operations supported by our air supremacy. I can’t imagine a scenario where we don’t win decisively as long as we have air superiority. Any casualties would be regrettable, but you’d think they could be minimized with our air power.
Boots on the ground would be needed is the nuclear dust is not surrendered. No necessarily American boots though. Hypothetically, a beach head could be established, then we could start arming and training the locals for ground operations support by our air supremacy. I can’t imagine a scenario where we don’t win decisively as long as we have air superiority. Any casualties would be regrettable, but you’d think they could be minimized with our air power.
How inhumane would an EMP blast over Tehran be? Or over Karg island?
The negotiations increasingly look like window dressing for a US determination to finish the job at the appropriate time. Perhaps the takjs are also intended to conciliate domestic and international opinion, so that we can say, We did our best. It is foolish for the Iranian regime and its stateside supporters to believe that they can stall and outmaneuver the team of Trump, Rubio and their military advisors. The reputational costs to the US of backing down in such a confrontation are simply too large.
You cannot reason nor deal with an insane messianic death cult. For the 12th Imam to return Iran must be destroyed. In WWII the Japanese thought they could force an negotiated end to the war. While the insane Japanese military leadership talked about fighting to the last man and woman, less criminally insane leaders were not in on it. This is clearly not the mindset of the Iranian leadership. Those demons want to be destroyed. Utterly. You cannot reach a negotiated end with that mindset.
The only way to win a war is to win it, and that is by delivering the KO punch. So much money invested in a strong military to protect US citizens. Use it.Yoy don’t deal with terrorists and not with Iran for sure. Donald, if you’re gonna walk the walk, walk for Christ’s sake.No one needs a hugs deal for peace in the Middle East, and no one needed Oslo. Just do your job, ok.
Every single comment above is salient and to the point. IRGC has to be swept away….using a sunami of weapons that don’t stop until it’s finished…..dead. Completely defanged. My question is, “Why has Trump stopped?” Really, not some stupid comment like TACO, but what’s his reasoning? He does hate war, and he thinks he can make a ‘deal’, but surely he must know, NOT WITH THIS THEOCRACY.
I am disappointed with Trump. While he may be a masterful negotiator there is no Iranian side with which to negotiate. He is being foolish and this is obvious to all. The Iranian Terrorist regime has never kept a promise, they always lie and continuously violate the so-called ceasefire. These terrorists object whenever Israel reacts to Hezbollah terrorist attacks. Wake-up! Restart the bombing campaign in earnest. Bomb all dual use targets, kill as many IRGC as possible, forcibly retrieve the nuclear dust and use our fleet to reopen the strait. Yes, they will send drones and missiles, but with constant counter attacks, these will greatly diminish. Arm the Iranian opposition against the IRGC and encourage them to hang as many terrorists as possible. The current strategy will never work!
Trump is beginning to look fearful as he keeps delaying the ultimate, I am not using that is not using his best deal making mentality. He should call Isreal and say let’s do it. Unfortunately, this option will probably require US soldiers while the old government is rooted out and disposed of. This will impact the midterm election, but Trump has said he is not concerned. I wish I was as positive as this could turn out to be a longterm war with chain of governance and setting up a new government. Asymmetric warfare is a BITCH, and we are not good at it
Freedom isn’t FREE, the Iranian people must do it !!!!! not the world. The Iranian people MUST sacrifice with their lives, take their country back, every true Iranian must fight to the death !!!!!! Otherwise the regime will always win with just one gun !!!!! Iranian’s MUST DIE for their country otherwise, again, control will be just one GUN !!!!!
Are we reading/seeing a pattern here in the comments?! Seems pretty clear to me. Ever heard the saying, “When you have a gorilla by the balls you don’t let go for a better grip!” It’s pretty simple, really. You cannot negotiate with evil. End this crap, control the Strait of Hormuz, and offer great incentives to the Iranian people to take back their country –
Trump is saving defeat from the jaws of victory. Trump has lost his mind. No-one knows what he is doing. Talking with these savages is ridiculous. Talk to them after every target, boat, bridge, power plant, port, oil terminal has been destroyed.
I agree that the IRGC must be completely neutralized in any successful conclusion of these hostilities. They are the root cause in this equation of chaos.
The second alternative is the correct one to take. These Islamist regimes are religiously driven, in a way that is never amenable to negotiation and compromise. The Iranians were bombed last year, and still worked to restart their nuclear program. They were bombed again this year and still have launched missiles to attack our Gulf bases, Israel (though Hezbollah proxies), and our Gulf allies. We need to DESTROY all of their dual-purpose infrastructure and then starve their economy and destroy their oil wells through the cessation of offloading and storage. Who cares what the Democratic Party of Destruction apologists say in Congress or in the press? They actually want the destruction of our country. Ignore them. Destroy the Iranian regime.
Exceptional analysis…the central issue is citizenship, local or regional or global…It is always thus. We live as a pack, which has a pecking order as an objective to maintain order and security. Those who do not assimilate are removed or not welcomed by the pack. Iran’s theocracy intends to be the leader of all packs and does not seek to assimilate anywhere. Your analysis sits upon the fundamentals of a pack. This is our history as a specie. Resolve now or later must be presented to complete the current action.
Very well thought through however, we may Enumerate, enumerate, list, list, blah, blah, Any result without IRGC elimination is FAILURE. Pure and simple. They will just come BACK tomorrow. Here’s the problem, and It is THIS : Muslims divide the entirety of the world into two sections ; that, which is UNDER their thumb, ‘the Dar al Islam’ and that, which We are Fighting over, because we have Yet to control it, ‘The Dar al Harb (War), these mean House of Islam & House of War which means that despite the money, despite the shiny sharkskin suits, despite the Audi cars wrapped in solid gold and silver. & all the Rolex watches, these mental defectives see everything in REAL BLACK & WHITE ! They only know the long game. All ‘they’ want is total dominance. We are talking some seventh century sophistication . Who can make a cogent argument for cutting up a woman so she can never truly enjoy herself? Who ? This alone and many others from the ‘Religion of Peace.’ Really ? The IRGC is, after showing blocks and blocks of recently filled body bags, has been accused of murdering 30,000 – 40,0000 so called protesters. All in in the name of their clique staying on a bit longer. In a country that was hardly more than 20-25 % Islamic. Imagine something like these horrible misfortunes happening any where else…..you know, like, England or NYC……….What? 😃
There is only one way to deal with Iran: permanent destruction of its military capabilities and ending the hold of its theocratic government on its people by destroying their religious infrastructure. The key is: Islam is not a religion. It is a theocratic controlling agent of men over over other men with untold damage to women.
There must be a new strategy for dealing with “shadow governments.” The Iranian government which is visible is not the shadow government which actually governs. This reminds me of the Government of North Vietnam during the Vietnam war. The Hand we see is not the Hand which steers.
The president doesn’t seem to understand that this not a real estate deal where both sides have similar goals. He clearly recognized the need for a change in leadership for Venezuela. It is even more critical with the zealots in Tehran.
Excellent assessment as always. I vote for the alternative. Get the IRGC command to give up the easy way which would extend to the regular military. If they won’t do that then just get it done! The other options would never be considered a success in spite of the gains because you are correct…..they would only re-constitute and do it with the help of our other enemies. Bring the priced back in and free the people then the people can decide how they want to proceed. Clean house or bust.
The only mistake the Trump administration has made in the conflict with Iran is stopping the military from completely eliminating Iran’s henchmen, the IRCG. Tens of thousands of Iranian civilians have been murdered by the “religious” arm of the Iranian government. The Trump administration should have never taken it’s foot off the gas pedal and should have finished the job.
The mullahs only respect violence and the leverage that violence implies.
The second strategy really is not risky. It is more final.
Give them a seven day deadline, then on day three, bomb the place into oblivion.
Because of all the in-breeding these radical leaders are truly stupid and deranged. There is no common sense among them.
The world would be a better place without these nut jobs.
I totally agree with your assessment. I am on the hawk side in this battle. Nothing but utter and unequivocal defeat will end this terrorist Nation.
Bravo ! as you said cut the Gordian knot don’t try and solve it.
Trump set out the terms of victory and by those terms, the regime’s mere survival *is* a victory. Because it represents their ability to say “no” to Trump’s demands.
I support the risky strategy. We should have pursued it months ago rather than more than deadline extensions past the original 2 weeks. There’s nothing we learned by sitting on our hands all spring that wasn’t already very, very obvious about how mideast nations do buisness. They only respect force. Give them force.
“Its [the Iranian Regime] strategy is also to feign detachment from reality and appear capable of doing anything to anyone anywhere at any time. Iran’s leaders are like the crazy assailant on the subway who feels he can do anything he wishes….”
I think one can say both the Iranian Regime and the Subway Assailant speak with and in the same spirit, a spirit of the darkness.
Dr. Hanson, dependably, speaks from the Spirit of Light. He is the strongest of the voices shedding Light on our geopolitical world today. Therefore he is a treasure for all of us who seek to walk in the Light.