Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
How does the supposedly most fearsome regime in the violent Middle East now find itself on the verge of an utter economic and military collapse?
Iran’s half-century-long deadly terrorist reputation peaked with the October 7, 2023, massacre in Israel that it helped fund and coordinate.
Iran’s terrorist ambitions of running the Middle East had accelerated after witnessing Joe Biden’s cognitive decline and his administration’s distancing itself from Israel. Biden’s humiliation by a series of Chinese slights and the Russian invasion of Ukraine further eroded American deterrence. European appeasement was another force multiplier of Iranian hubris.
The theocracy apparently assumed that its supposed “ring of fire” terrorist proxies—in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen—could lethally squeeze Israel, now reeling from the greatest single-day loss of Jewish life since the Holocaust.
The theocrats further conjectured that, like most incumbent presidents, Biden would be reelected and continue to revive the disastrous Obama-era appeasement.
Once Biden had begged Iran to reenter the Iran deal, lifted sanctions, sent cash, and removed terrorist designations from some of its proxies, the Khamenei regime, now flush with new oil revenues, logically stepped up its nuclear enrichment.
Tehran was assured that not even Israel would dare strike its nuclear labyrinth, given its reputedly state-of-the-art Chinese and Russian air defenses—and its own retaliatory armada of thousands of ballistic missiles and drones, augmented by perhaps 200,000 short-range rockets of its Arab terrorist clients.
But Iran sorely miscalculated.
The cognitively challenged Biden reelection candidacy imploded, replaced by the anemic Kamala Harris nomination—and with it, the Democrats lost power.
Worse, the supposedly politically dead and buried Trump pulled off the most amazing political return in modern American history.
Benjamin Netanyahu survived the political implosions following October 7 and now had a supportive American presidency.
A cleverer Iran would have stopped the bombast, downplayed its terrorist connections, and returned to its trademark delay-delay-delay style of negotiations—in hopes that the Europeans, the terrified Gulf monarchies, the anti-Israel Democrats, and the paleo-Right would combine to prevent Trump from doing what seven prior presidents had claimed was essential but had never dared to do.
But instead, Iran kept bragging about its air defenses and its vast missile fleet and egged on its expendable Arab surrogates.
It had no inkling that October 7 had reminded Israel that it could never trust its Islamic enemies and that its extinction, not mere defeat, was the aim of the Iranian nexus.
In truth, Iran’s ferocious reputation was never based on any actual success on the battlefield.
Its forte had always been enlisting Arabs and other Middle Easterners to kill Israelis, Americans, and other Westerners in Europe, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
When Israel preempted this and destroyed the Iranian air defenses during the 12-Day War in 2025, and the Americans pounded its multi-billion-dollar nuclear facility, the world saw for the first time how hollow the theocracy had always been.
Even its patrons, Russia and China, privately despised Iran and considered it only a useful anti-American and anti-Western tool.
But once Russia got mired in Ukraine and lost Syria, it was forced to cut Iran loose.
The Chinese—who have turned a million Muslim Uyghurs into indentured serfs—saw Iran merely as a cut-rate gas station.
As long as it was free to buy sanctioned Iranian oil on the sly, China sold Iran almost every weapons system Tehran wanted.
But again, the Chinese connection was predicated only on Iranian utility—which has now mostly evaporated.
The Gulf sheikdoms loathed and feared Iran but were too close to the monster to dare poke it. And so they appeased and bribed Iran and hoped their money, oil, and the US military would deter the mullahs.
That strategy, too, has imploded, Iran having blasted the Gulf with more missiles (5,000) than it had sent (500) even against the hated Zionist entity.
Europe for decades appeased Iran to buy its oil, to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, and to protect itself from Iranian-funded terrorists. Now that the US has defanged Iran, Europe is likely to pile on.
Iran has no government. Freelancing apparatchiks from the military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the government, and the theocracy fear being dubbed soft by their competitors, but all of these fear a popular uprising and an overdue noose strung over the collective neck of the regime even more.
They have no idea what Trump will do. Their signature methods of delaying and bartering won’t work with him, especially when time is no longer on Iran’s side, and they have no military left.
The bankrupt regime is bleeding over $400 million a day in revenue. It faces a loss of half a trillion dollars from its half-century-long investment in a vast and now obliterated military-nuclear-industrial complex and arsenal.
In sum, Iran can no longer credibly bluff, threaten, or delay. Not even the American Left and the European appeasers can save it.
Its 47-year façade is in ruins.
Iran in its current state, is an explicit example of why our 2nd Amendment is so important. If the people in Iran had guns and ammunition, this whole exercise would be concluded for the betterment of the Iranian people and the World.
Message to President Trump. “Finish iT!” Negotiations under terms of surrender will benefit all the Middle East countries. Our Arab friends need not to fear Iran again.
Very well thought through, however, we may enumerate, enumerate, list, list, blah, blah, blah, Any result without IRGC elimination is FAILURE. Pure and simple. They will just come BACK tomorrow. Here is the problem, and It is THIS : Muslims divide the entirety of the world into two sections ; that, which is UNDER their thumb, ‘the Dar al Islam’ and that, which We are Fighting over, because we have Yet to control it, ‘The Dar al Harb’, i.e. War, these mean House of Islam & House of War which means that despite the money, despite the shiny sharkskin suits, despite the Audi cars wrapped in solid gold and silver. & all the Rolex watches, these mental defectives see everything in REAL BLACK & WHITE ! They only know the long game. All ‘they’ want is total dominance. We are talking some seventh century sophistication . Who can make a cogent argument for cutting up a woman so she can never truly enjoy herself? Who? This alone and many others from the ‘Religion of Peace.’ Really? The IRGC is, after showing blocks and blocks of recently filled body bags, has been accused of murdering 30,000 – 50,0000 so called protesters. All in in the name of their clique staying on a bit longer. All. in a country that was hardly more than 20-25 % Islamic. Imagine something like these horrible misfortunes happening any where else…..you know, like, England or NYC……….What?
JIM REYNOLDS Says “I hear on MSNOW multiple times a day that Iran is clearly winning.”
Well there’s your problem Jim… they are called “Fake News” for good reason.
The very worst of the terrorist sympathisers is MSNow. Ninety years ago they would have worn brown shirts and jack boots and attended Nazi rallies shouting Heil Hitler with full-blown gusto. Today they’re muted somewhat, utilising modern communications technology, but their authoritarian bent has not wavered. If we fail to address the reality of the Enemy Within, ultimately our breathtaking military prowess will be to no avail.
No doubt that the “facade” is ruin. I just hope and pray that the regime is ruin. Our fellow western nations should be ashamed of their lack of action in getting behind us, Israel and the Arab states in taking out the number one sponsor of terrorism. You can finally see real peace in the Middle East on the horizon if only the rational world could get behind President Trump’s and Bibi’s lead. They may be able to do it without them but it would be a guarantee with them.
popular not populat. I do not know how to correct my typo.
Thanks again, Professor Hanson, for this very comprehensive piece on how Iran “Committed Suicide.” I think back to the era when Ross Perot accomplished the daring rescue of two of his EDS employees who were captured and imprisoned in the Qasr prison in Iran. There was much confusion in the country at that time as the Shah was being deposed and Ayatollah Khomeini was returning to Iran from exile to form and take over government. The prison was overrun by an angry mob who hated the Shah who fled, ultimately to America as I recall. In the resulting chaos, the prison was liberated and the EDS employees were evacuated to friendler surroundings.
As you point out, there is now no government left in Iran, only a handful of would be regime leaders fearing a popular uprising by the people eager to string them up with a noose around their collective neck. It will be fun to watch them scatter in the aftermath of just a small uprising being watched over by a battalion or so of US Marines, some IDF Troops and a couple of A-10 Warthogs loitering overhead. A small populat uprising by the people can grow quickly into a massive groundswell. The theocratic rats will not be able to scurry away quickly enough.
Iranian Islamists are obliged by the Quran to lie to all non Muslims. Not a single concession they make can be trusted without overwhelming military consequences. Even then, they can’t be trusted. They are willing to sacrifice every last person in Iran to bring about a world wide Califate or Armageddon.
shades of the Tet Offensive from our media…
@Jim Reynolds. Only a fool would quote legacy media as a basis of any ‘fact’.
Mr. Reynolds is pulling our collective leg in his first two grafs. His third graf is spot on.
Mr. Reynolds’s is pulling our collective leg in his first two grafs. His third graf is spot on.
Has there ever in world history been a time and pattern of circumstances wherein the “powers that (would} be” have been so deluded about, and insulated from, the facts on the ground due to their overwhelmingly negative impressions and judgments of a world leader (love or despise him/her)? If not, are we living in unexplored territory where gut feelings are so prominent relative to assessments of reality? Thank goodness there is a Victor Davis Hanson to steadfastly jerk us away from bias and toward facts and logic.
Trump’s negotiating skills Will be severely challenged by these criminal zealots. There are roughly 50,00 to 200,000 thousand Shia mullahs in Iran depending on how broadly “mullah” is defined. The vast majority are anti Israeli/American, western civilization zealots. Eventually, they must be delt with if peace in the region is going to last.
Jim: How is Iran winning? Iran is clearly on the brink of collapse militarily as well as economically. I can’t think of any previous military engagement so liaised since the 90 Gulf war.
Have to agree completely, as always Professor Hanson has laid out the facts and truth for all to see. One thing we should remember is now Iran’s minions are on their own including terrorists that may have been put into the U.S. and other countries. Those agents of hate could act on their own, we just don’t know when or where and we don’t know their capabilities. Hopefully the government is on top of this.
Lots of hopeful conjecture in this article. The administration made two critical mistakes, and forgot an important strategic rule of war, “the enemy gets a vote.” 1 – The evil Iranian regime is decentralized, radical, and deep. 2 – Hormuz is easily blocked, as every Pentagon war game has proven. Time is also not on the United States side. If Hormuz stays closed for three more weeks the World will suffer cataclysmic economic losses.
Jim, listening to MSNOW several times a day is why you are not hearing truths. Try Podcasts, NewsMAX, or even C-SPAN.
Dealing with “Barbary Pirates” is as old as the Republic.
I expect the Iranians to start shooting at one another soon, as the power vacuum increases.
I agree with George Washington that we should avoid foreign entanglements. However, at that time, one had to take a sail powered ship to come to America from Europe. As we discovered in WW2, those days are over. The IRGC is akin to Hitler’s SS troops in early 1945, amoral and in control even as the country disintegrates around them, searching to find out how to get out of the country to where they have stashed their millions of looted money. It’s a nasty situation and I pray for the normal Irani people who aren’t into the Islamic stuff.
Hope and pray this war ends quickly without additional killing, especially more Americans. Also pray that America stops funding and fighting Israel’s wars once this regime is gone. We can bless Israel in many ways. Blessing them by fighting and funding their wars and ambitions was never what scripture defined as blessing them.
I would much prefer if the US follow George Washington’s advice in his farewell address that we not have any favored or disfavored nations. This would keep us out of a lot of foreign entanglement.
But Victor’s history lessons have persuaded me that once we are engaged in a war, we have to win decisively in order to maintain deterrence. Plus, I have to admit that I don’t know all the things that the president does, and have come to trust his instincts.
Shades of “Silencing Patton” has been top of mind where we are stacked militarily around Iran as we were in WWII Europe where Patton wanted to kick the Soviets back to Moscow.
You can’t miss this opportunity to finish evil now in Iran or face the fear of greater future evil.
Victor states it best, and succinctly as well!
Old enough to recall the 1979 revolution and the taking of our embassy in Tehran. Finally a President with the spine, the skill and the willingness to risk his legacy and political power and stand up to the radical mullahs in Iran. Standing for America instead of himself. Democrats will rue the day they cheered on the radical islamists in Tehran. It showed their true colors
Iran has already been demolished with no weaponry to fight off anyone especially the USA. President Trump will just wait them out till there money from oil stops. Simple strategy. Then give the Iranian people a chance at governing themselves. This so called War was over in about 3 weeks. Now it’s time for Trump to sit back and watch Iran fall apart from within. All this with few Troops on the ground as Bush 2 could figure out in his 8 years of disastrous leadership. God Blessed us twice with a President that actually love America.
I can’t disagree with VDH’s analysis, but the premise, that is, that we are dealing with rational actors, may be badly flawed. For them, any crisis that allows the regime to survive, must seem like a victory. And yes, they do care about American politics, because all the evidence points to their being rescued by the Democrat after the 2026 midterms.
To those who that infer this is just for Israels benefit, Trump was 30 or so when the hostages were taken in Iran. That was a deeply embarrassing thing for the USA. I can see Trump waiting for the moment to deliver some payback.
What’s left of the Iranian elite and the IRGC doubtless have cash and properties stashed in the UK, France, and Switzerland. Keep up the blockade and the consequent bankruptcy, and they’ll likely flee the inevitable popular eruption.
Then President Trump and his Arab allies will be able to make a new government an offer: join us in the New Middle East Peace and the Abraham Accords, and we’ll even stake you to a seat on the Council of Peace.
Jim, you watch MSNOW, question, where do they get their misinformation? Can you back up with empirical evidence anything they say is correct?
For those who only listen to such questionable propaganda sites such as msnow, you are being played. I would trust the wisdom of VDH, an historian who has analyzed myriad historical empires and battle before a single talking head at a very pro-left advocacy platform. You are laboring with only a fraction of the data that you need to comprehend this very complex and long plan to control, not only the evil thugs in iran, but long term damage to our true enemy – China. How shortsighted vision that you allow yourself for the sake of staying loyal to your cult.
For a permanent resolution the world and more particularly, the Iranian people need regime change and that won’t happen without a second (much bloodier) revolution. This is the onerous burden the Persians must bear. It was, of course, their tolerance of the mullahs that’s an ultimate cause of these troubles.
You can take the Muslim out of piracy but you can’t take piracy out of Muslims…
I hope the US Government is training Iranians here in the military and intelligence craft to infiltrate Iran and liberate it. Probably not. That makes way too much sense.
I hear on MSNOW multiple times a day that Iran is clearly winning.
I have no idea where VDH is getting his misinformation.
Still, unless the people of Iran rise up we will face another sh*t show in a few years.
Your analysis is valued but in some instances it is opinion rather than evidenced analysis. Iran likely cared less about the 2024 presidential election, evidenced by the fact they continued to enrich uranium and shout death to Israel and America. Great that Israel nudged the US to target the nuclear facilities that has resulted in obliterating the theocracy but the IRGC still resists. Hope team Trump/Netanyahu get the job done soon and rid the world of that despotic regime.
Hanson has become as deranged as Trump. If one thing is certain, it is that Iran has won this war, dealing the US its most serious and humiliating defeat ever.
Shades of “Silencing Patton” has been top of mind Victor dear where we are stacked militarily around Iran as we were in WWII
Europe where Patton wanted to kick the Soviets back to Moscow. You can’t miss this opportunity to finish evil now in Iran or face the fear of greater evil taking root in the future.
Right! What a relief.
Shades of “Silencing Patton” has been top of mind Victor dear where we are stacked militarily around Iran as we were in WWII Europe where Patton wanted to kick the Soviets back to Moscow. You can’t miss this opportunity to finish evil now in Iran or face the fear of greater evil taking root in the future.
Iran will never recover from this. It is just a matter of time before the regime falls. Let’s hope the next leader is not a terrorist.
Yet Europe remains toothless and noncommittal, unwilling to open its airspace to US operations. The blockade is solely a US effort. When will Europe pile on?
“Its 47-year façade is in ruins.”
Shhhh ….. don’t tell the legacy media, they think Iran is still formidable
VDH often points to America’s vaunted GDP as a sign of strength and greatness (although not mentioned in this essay). One nagging thought that I’ve had in relation to the militarily successful effort to degrade Iran’s capabilities is that the U.S. does not have the industrial base it once had (largely shipped to China — you can’t buy a USA-made Rubbermaid kitchen sink mat or a pair of Vise-Grip pliers anymore, or hardly anything else not ‘Made in China’, including machine tools — the machines that make machines — once the backbone of Cleveland and Milwaukee, built by men with 8th-grade educations, like my grandfather). U.S. industrial production won the World Wars. From 1941-1945 the USA built more than 8000 ships. We can’t build more than a handful of ships now. Our capacity to do so is gone. And, we are the brokiest-brokey-broke nation that ever was, with a death-spiral deficit — annual interest on the national debt exceeds the War Department budget. A wise man once said, “That which cannot continue, . . . won’t.”
Rare earth elements needed to produce high-tech weapons and iPhones come from China. And sink mats. And pliers. And nearly every other tangible thing. We do have more tax-preparers, tattoo parlors, vape shops, government-sponsored lotteries, ‘door-dash’ food, and overpriced coffee boutiques, though. That’s our GDP. Some GDP, eh? U.S. greatness was based on shared virtues that Alexis de Tocqueville described. Who are we, now?
VDH – out of the park home run once again!