Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
Consider these European and American binaries.
On December 20, 2024, a terrorist, Taleb Al-Abdul Mohsen, rammed his SUV into a Christmas crowd in Magdeburg, Germany. He killed 6 pedestrians and injured 299 others.
Eleven days later, on New Year’s Eve in New Orleans, Louisiana, Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar smashed his pickup into a festive crowd. He murdered fifteen and hurt over 35.
Germany’s fertility rate is scarcely above 1.4—about average for a shrinking European Union. About 20 percent of the country is now foreign-born, a record high.
American fertility has precipitously dived to 1.6. The foreign-born now represent 15 percent of the American resident population, the highest in both actual numbers (50 million) and percentages in history.
The German military is a shell of its former self, with fewer than 200,000 soldiers and a shortage of almost all types of weapons.
The U.S. military, after being humiliated in Afghanistan, is currently down some 40,000-plus recruits. It faces shortages of anti-tank weapons, artillery shells, ships, and logistical support.
Germany may finally manage to spend 2% of its GDP on defense; the United States is heading downward below 3%—the lowest in over 80 years since the Great Depression.
Last year, the German economy shrank; this year, it will scarcely grow, in part because of shortages of affordable fossil fuels.
Germans pay four times what Americans on average do for electricity. Yet the Trump administration has promised an oil and natural gas renaissance, hoping to expand both production and exports with envisioned new pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals.
In sum, the U.S. is beginning to mimic the pathologies of Europe—and yet in the next four years, renewal could help slow the decline of both.
Both face shrinking and aging populations. Both either cannot or will not control their borders, despite popular protests. Both suffer from woke political correctness and are pushing back.
The proverbial people of both nations want smaller government—and more freedom of expression and less woke. They insist on less and legal-only immigration and secure borders.
They vote for cheaper energy and fewer regulations.
Europeans and Americans alike want more meritocracy and fewer fixations on race and gender.
In the chaos of the postmodern 21st century, Europe and the U.S. nevertheless are still likely to share the same enemies and friends.
Both resent the asymmetrical Chinese approach to global commerce, based on a mercantilism that would never allow Europe and the United States to treat China as it does both.
The Europeans and the Americans are both worried about a vastly expanding conventional and nuclear Chinese military.
Neither wants Iran to develop nuclear-tipped missiles with ranges to hit the capitals of both. They do not want Vladimir Putin to recreate the former Soviet Union’s borders.
Europe, as a rule, loves Democrats as kindred quasi-socialists. But privately many Europeans assume their own security and prosperity do better when America is governed by conservatives.
In the past, Europe has not been a fan of Donald Trump, both as president and as a pre- and post-presidency candidate.
They fear that he is an isolationist, insufficiently diplomatic, not fully supportive of NATO, or too tariff-happy for their tastes—and are scared of his art-of-the-deal trolling to prompt wake-up calls.
But 2025 is certainly not 2017 or even 2020. And a “reset” in thinking on both sides is urgently now needed more than ever.
The Biden administration was no model partner for Europe. It quite outrageously forced cancellations of a joint Cypriot, Greek, and Israeli EastMed pipeline to bring much-needed natural gas to Europe.
It talked a great game about strengthening NATO. But the alliance’s bulwark, the U.S. military, saw its real budget cut, its Pentagon politicized, and recruitment short more than 40,000 enlistees.
The humiliating 2021 skedaddle from Afghanistan not only eroded American credibility but undermined all Western deterrence as well.
Biden opposed building new liquefied natural gas export terminals in the U.S. designed to help energy-starved Europe find a reliable and honest supplier and decouple from Russia.
Trump, in contrast, promises to “drill, drill, drill,” in part to ensure needed income by exporting huge amounts of LNG to fuel-starved Europe.
Europe was angry that a bantering Trump once bullied them to meet their promises to increase their defense spending.
But after the invasion of Ukraine, they are happy that some countries did just that.
Europeans likely want—and need—Trump to restore a more deterrent U.S. military, not a woke one.
Europe and America are both in crisis and need radical new thinking.
So, who knows—Europe may soon quietly rejoice that Biden is gone, Trump is back, and they have a strong, loyal, and rowdy friend rather than a simpering enabler.
I normally hang on every word you write and agree with almost all of them. Not this time. Europe has been virtually impotent since the Bosnian War in 1992 when it could not muster the political will nor military means to deal with a small & bloody conflict on its frontier. The Europeans, secure under the American nuclear umbrella have built their morally superior welfare states while simultaneously resenting America’s leadership ( when it’s assertive & or when they need it). President Trump, with his focus on the American hemisphere ( Panama, the 2 huge pieces of Arctic geography Greenland & Canada) is sending a very clear message to the Europeans that his primary interest is securing the next American century and whether they ante up their 2% to keep NATO viable is up to them. Also, the closer European NATO gets to political & military guarantees for Ukraine the further and faster DJT will step back. How can any serious observer of Europe look at the current situation & trajectory of the last generation and see a viable alliance for the future? Much as i applaud Meloni, Italy is a middle power at best without the will or capacity to project power much beyond its borders. Do you think Mme. Le Pen is the answer? Which begs another question for the Europeans: where are the men? Are Macron & Starmer the best you’ve got?
Thanks Victor! Biden has always been a joke and now more so than ever! Unless one is into a tragic comedy genre, the sooner this clown is gone the better!
Adam Smith is often quoted for saying that there is much ruin in a nation. The Biden administration put that observation to the test. Trump’s “common sense” installation couldn’t be coming any sooner. He, in fact, hews much closer to the Enlightenment values the founders expressed, which we share with Europe and with other countries sympathetic to them. Thank heavens #47 will soon be here.
While it is not in the best interest of the US to abandon Germany and Europe overall, that may be what is required to Make America Great Again. The USA cannot defend Europe on our nickel while Europe contiues to spend their funds on leftist global warming and ‘woke’ agendas. Trump hit the nail head on when he told Merkel Germany cannot buy Russian oil and expect the US to defend Germany against Russian aggression. Trump not only forced Europe to pony up for NATO, he did much the same in South Korea, demanding more for the support of US troops in that country.
For too long US political leaders appeased Europe’s lack of meeting their defense requirements and relying on US. Our $37 trillion debt is coming home to roost and Europe may be required to pay the price with US.
Well put, Victor.
Great article, as usual, Victor! The good news is that my daughter’s French in-laws’ response to our re-election of Trump in November was “Can we please have him here in France??” They’ve come around since we first met them in 2016 when they preferred Hillary – (and we didn’t!! 🙂
MAGA- Make AMERICA great again! Please start the process with us FIRST President Trump! Immigration, balance the budget, stop spending and pay down the debt before we all go to hell in a handbasket! Be sure to allocate needed and necessary funds for our military though… Let Elon and Vivek do their thing! Great article as always VDH!! My Happy New Year will be on January 20th!!!
Yes, thanks, Germany does have a longer way to go, but reason for post-ruin hope in both countries.
VDH writes, “They (the Europeans and the Americans) do not want Vladimir Putin to recreate the former Soviet Union’s borders. Yet, if Trump abandons Ukraine, that is exactly what will happen because Putin will not stop his territorial expansion with Ukraine. The Baltics, Moldova, and Poland will be next. He will go West, and any historian realizes where that will lead. Moreover, a Ukrainian collapse would be a catastrophic defeat for Trump, making Biden’s Afghanistan pullout out look like a good move. That is why Trump must provide Ukrainians with any military kit they need to be able to defend themselves. Trump, unfortunately, seems to be willing to sell Ukraine down the river and Putin gets everything he wants. For Ukraine and Europe, the message is pretty stark.
I agree that we need to back Ukraine. Both for its own sake, to deter russia from attacking smaller NATO allies and to warn China off an attack on Taiwan.
That said, Russia’s empire building is over with. Its losses in blood and treasure trying to conquer Ukraine, the poor quality of its army, its reliance on cold war-era equipment (now mostly spent) all mean that, as long as Russia understands that NATO will properly respond to an attack on a NATO nation, Russia is at its limit fighting Ukraine. Its military, a broken-down mess, is no threat to a modern military.
Ukraine is a sunk-cost fallacy. Without some ability to declare victory, Putin must continue the war no matter the losses, no matter the destruction to the russian economy. Because the loss of face from spending this much and coming away empty-handed likely means the end of his rule and of course, Putin himself.
Yes JT, it likely means the end of his rule and of course, Putin himself.
By trying to extinguish Ukraine Putin has effectively destroyed Russia.
President Trump has nothing to do with the Ukrainian war, they’re not part of NATO in the first place, there will be no more money for Zelensky. Trump and the MAGA populist movement will put our US Republic first, we have major problems to deal with!
💪💪🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸💪💪
While Trump may banter he could do that, in fact he is willing to continue military support for Ukraine. While Biden makes headlines he will ‘sanction” Russian oil, all his actions have do nothing to stop the flow of oil out of Russia. Trump knows ( as does Putin)the USN can blockade Russian oil out of the Black sea, the bulk of it’s exports, as well as the Baltic and i think that is the card he is willing to play to get Russia to stop it’s offensive and settle for the status quo of territory it has now. Without oil revenue Russia, a gas station masquerading as a country would collapse. Ukraine has lost 1/3 of it’s population, and Dictator Zelensky’s goal of taking back all it’s lost territory including Crimea is a fantasy. He is totally dependent on the USA for survival, he will take the deal Trump says he will. The colossal losses of Russian tanks and other equipment have eviscerated it’s military, a paper tiger is has been shown to be. Does anyone think that an attack on a NATO nation Russia can assert air superiority? That will be NATO’s ( USAF) reign, and no war can succeed against that.
Deterrents must be returned to the tables of diplomacy, including Trumps’ threat to use nuculear. Even then, what is left is Doris Day’s “Que Serra, Serra: Whatever will be, will be. Human nature is HN.
Europe must join America more fully in “policing the world” and standing-up to these rogue nations.
We never should have backed Ukraine. We caused it in 2014 with the color revolution and then sold off the Donbas to European energy and mining interests. We promised to never move NATO eastward, and yet we have added country after country, in direct violation to the terms of Russian forces leaving East Germany. We have pushed Russia, a country with over 6000 nuclear warheads to the brink and used US weapons to strike into their territory. It is only by an act of God that this war has not escalated into a thermonuclear nightmare. We need out of NATO, the Warsaw pact is dead, buried, and the wounds inflicted on Ukraine were created when the homosexual comedian was installed as president by our State Department. It’s a self-inflicted wound. We committed an act of war by destroying the Nordstream pipeline – I could go on and on and all I’d be saying is let Europe die the death it has designed for itself. We have one chance, ONE CHANCE to right this ship or become the slave of Asia for the foreseeable future.
Karen Bass made Biden’s short list for VP for 2020 according to US News & World Report.
Wow, Bass on the VP shortlist makes sense in hindsight. That Administration was the Dem’s winning combination of incompetency and corruption from top to bottom. It was the stuff of SNL skits. That VP selection was 180 degrees opposite of Mother Nature’s Natural Selection.
The comments on Victor Davis Hanson’s “America and Europe Can Hang Together—Or Hang Separately” reflect diverse perspectives, largely critical of Europe and the Biden administration, while favoring Trump’s policies. Many argue Europe relies too heavily on the U.S. for defense, citing failures like Europe’s handling of the Bosnian War and its focus on “woke” agendas rather than military readiness. Critics of Biden see him as ineffective, contrasting his leadership with Trump’s direct approach to NATO funding and prioritizing U.S. interests.
Opinions on Ukraine vary widely. Some support continued U.S. backing, arguing it deters Russian aggression and preserves NATO’s credibility, while others see Ukraine as a “sunk-cost fallacy,” with critics blaming U.S. actions for provoking the war. The debate includes skepticism about European leadership (e.g., Macron and Starmer) and praise for Trump’s potential strategies, such as leveraging U.S. naval power to block Russian oil exports.
Overall, the commenters emphasize focusing on U.S. domestic priorities, curbing debt, and reasserting American strength while expressing doubts about Europe’s capacity to uphold its responsibilities. Views on Ukraine and NATO reveal deep divisions on America’s global role, with some advocating for continued engagement and others calling for disengagement to prioritize national interests.