Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
Iran apparently had not adjusted to its new 2025 status—or maybe it had. Most of its bought terrorists are currently either destroyed or anemic.
There is no more ascendant Iranian “Shia crescent” in the Middle East. Russia is no longer a Middle East power, patron, and protector.
The Assad dynasty imploded, flipping Syria from an Iranian proxy into a likely Iranian enemy. Hezbollah, once supposedly the most fearsome of all the Iranian terrorist tentacles, was humiliated and neutered by a series of surreal Israeli operations.
Hamas has been reduced to a subterranean terrorist remnant.
The Houthis’ tit-for-tat encounters with Israel and the U.S. are systematically turning their Yemeni enclave into an impotent dump. At its present rate, the Houthis will likely soon launch their last rocket at Israel or the Red Sea in a country without fuel, electricity, and ports.
Iran itself, last year in a disastrous air war with Israel, lost its air defenses and is now more or less impotent and defenseless against Israeli air incursions. Its oil income has been slashed by 70-80 percent by the renewed Trump sanctions and ‘maximum pressure’ campaign. Israel can destroy all of its oil industry if it wishes and, apparently, send operatives inside Iran itself as it pleases.
Most of the Arab Sunni world is now losing its accustomed fear of Iran. While the weary pan-Islamic solidarity boilerplate of the Middle East remains the same, privately, most Arab nations rely on the U.S. or even Israel to deter Iran—and predicate their own foreign policy on the degree to which they do just that.
With the end of the Biden administration and Obama a distant memory, Iran lost all hope that it could bluster, bluff, and negotiate itself out of sanctions and embargoes—and into nuclear weapons. There are no more John Kerrys or Antony Blinkens in charge, eager to meet Iranian demands. Ben Rhodes’s “echo chamber” Iran Deal is ancient history.
Israel had done more than all of America’s Middle East wars or all of NATO’s global presence to end Iran’s claims on power and the ability to project its brand of terror and fear throughout the Middle East.
So why did a neutered Iran still sound like the fiery Iran of old, when it once terrorized the Middle East and sent its assassination teams worldwide, with its nearly weekly loud threats to wipe out the one-bomb “Zionist entity?”
What was Iran thinking in refusing to negotiate seriously with the Trump administration to disband its nuclear weapons program and “normalize” its role in the Middle East?
Apparently, given its disastrous last two years, Iran still felt its last-gasp claim both internally and externally on power was on spec to stall and delay by negotiating its way to a dozen nuclear weapons, or, barring that, a deterrent consisting of huge stockpiles of conventional guided missiles.
Such a mini-nuclear arsenal, or fleets of long-range, conventional rockets, would, in Iran’s eyes, still frighten Israel, leverage Europe and the West, and eventually recharge its terrorist legions.
To achieve that unlikely deterrent, the theocracy thought it could draw out Trump’s negotiations endlessly with a series of its trademark feints, falsities, and even threats until it had enriched enough weapons-grade uranium to deter Israel, or created a massive missile force that could overcome the Israeli Iron Dome.
Tehran naively assumed that Trump’s own MAGA base forbade him from starting or even reacting to “forever wars.” Thereby, the Iranians may have believed that Trump’s willingness to deal was a signal that he was restrained domestically or naive enough to put up with their trademark dissimulation. And thus, they wished to believe that Trump would either harness Israel or keep distant from it should Israel preempt to end the Iranian nuclear option.
But Trump had always been clear that Iran could never obtain a nuclear weapon, if deliberately unclear about how that ultimatum would actually be enforced.
Moreover, Iran had always failed to grasp that Trump is not a neo-isolationist but rather a Jacksonian. He certainly does not believe in endless wars or, for that matter, any large, preemptive military action, especially on the ground in the Middle East. He loathes nation-building, and would likely never send a single platoon into Iran.
But all that said, the prior fates of the arch Iranian terrorist general Qasem Soleimani, ISIS kingpin Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, or the Russian Wagner group in Syria might have reminded Iran that Trump will use force to restore or enhance deterrence and ensure U.S. interests.
When Trump began negotiating with Iran for an end to its nuclear program, he warned the theocracy that it had 60 days to renounce nuclear weapon acquisitions. He apparently had picked such a two-month window, given that any time beyond that date might have ensured Iran would have developed a few nuclear weapons, a reality he knew was untenable for Israel and the U.S.
Iran arrogantly gambled that Trump was bluffing and would stay in endless Iranian bartering while pressuring Israel to stand down so as not to derail his peace efforts. But anyone who knew Benjamin Netanyahu or Trump would know that staying the deadline was impossible, and Iran would likely be hit right after the two-month warning expired.
And so, the regime was hit—swiftly and decisively.
Did Iran think its new Russian and Chinese allies would intervene on its behalf or threaten Israel to stand down? But Russia is bogged down in Ukraine in a new Stalingrad that may have cost it 1 million dead and wounded, with no end in sight. Its military has been weakened. It has no desire to enter any additional foreign conflict. If anything, Putin may soon wish Trump to find him a way out of his own self-created quagmire.
Anyway, an Israeli-Iranian conflict and the subsequent unrest and uncertainty in the Persian Gulf, as far as Vladimir Putin was concerned, would only raise the price of oil and further help feed his tiring Russian war machine.
China is currently trying to avoid a catastrophic trade war with the U.S. It has no desire to prevent the U.S. from aiding Israel. Unlike Russia, China wants no conflict of any kind in the Persian Gulf. It once bought 80-90 percent of Iranian oil, and the Middle East supplies about 50 percent of Beijing’s current oil needs.
So, what was Iran’s backup strategy of resistance if its nuclear infrastructure came under attack before it obtained a bomb? Apparently, it had none.
And in some sense, that is a silly question, given the theocracy has no reason to exist if it is not an exporter of Shiite Persian-sponsored terrorism aimed at isolating Israel, bullying the Sunni Arab world, and scaring the West. Indeed, the regime always believed it would dissolve without terrorist satellites, a nuclear threat, and oil money. Yet what we are beginning to witness after nearly half a century is a terrorist regime with no terrorists, a would-be nuclear bully with no nuclear weapons, and a conventional threat that will soon not be threatening.
So, what is the future of this latest episode of the Iran-Israel air war? For now, Trump will keep raising the specter of negotiations, and Israel will keep hammering Iran. Trump will expect that, at some point, either the cornered regime will return to drag out negotiations, lie and cajole to save their battered regime and dwindling resources, or see their oil and defense infrastructure eventually wiped out—and the possibility the regime disappears as well.
We might then expect the current hot war to turn into an intermittent one for a few weeks, its pulse controlled by Israel, in the manner that it has systematically eliminated Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis as threats.
Is that a viable solution? For now, yes, if the Iranian nuclear program is dismantled for a few years.
But no, if the regime survives.
The only end to the latest phase of forever wars in the Middle East is for the current regime in Iran to disappear and be followed by a somewhat sane regime resembling, say, Jordan or Egypt—mostly secular states that may loathe Israel in private but are pragmatic enough never to war with it ever again.
It is not a stretch to think people, like me, 50 years ago predicted this would be the course of action required for Iran. Too many of us remember the street rallies and “DEATH TO THE US” when the Shah fell and gritted our teeth as this barbaric regime held our people captive. It is just unfortunate that Jimmy Carter did not live long enough to see his ineptitude rewarded. He turned his back on the Shah and ensured that 50 years of terror were all but guaranteed. Likewise, every GOP President ignored the threat with the Democrat Presidents were intent on allowing the Iranians to not only build nuclear weapons but help finance it for them. What a refreshing change.
Victor and Sami,
Thanks for the shoutout, even though I did manage to mess up the Obama quote.
Hope you are recovering well from surgery, Victor.
Only a few months ago ordinary Iranians including young women were visibly revolting against their theocratic totalitarian rulers, being beaten, imprisoned or shot by government troops. Where are the people who filled the streets now? Why aren’t they fomenting revolution while the mullahs’ are teetering? Were all the brave ones jailed or murdered? Trump and Netanyahu are likely looking for Iranians to help themselves, not expect everything handed to them.
I agree with Tim Kelly about someone within the Iranian military establishment coming forward to lead the country. Israel has set the stage for this transition to happen by eliminating top Iranian nuclear scientists, military & intelligence personnel. The military will support whichever faction continues to pay it and offers amnesty for past transgressions. Meanwhile, heads on a swivel both home & abroad per Michael Chew.
The Middle East has seen only two events where governments have been forcefully removed, in both cases the military superseded civilian governments– Ataturk in Turkey in the early 20th Century and Al Sisi in Egypt after the Arab Spring. We need a similar event in Iran today.
Someone in the Iranian military needs to step forward and mobilize the troops to replace the current theocracy. The new leader must be a devout Muslim but one prepared to allow Israel to continue to exist.
Unfortunately the Mullahs have split the Iranian military into two forces–the traditional Army/Navy and the Ouds forces which are akin to Hitler’s SA and SS forces. The military leader is unlikely to come from the second force. But the traditional military is more numerous, better armed, and more effective than the Ouds.
Israel should be cultivating field grade and flag officers who are fed up with how the theocracy is destroying Iran. But one or a group needs to step forward and change the Iranian government.
The people will follow those who have the courage to do so.
Tim Kelly, Naples, FL
It’s odd how after nearly half a century we are still dealing with the mistakes of the Carter administration.
I am cautiously optimistic this may be the end of the radical “revolutionary” Iranian regime. The question is how the 800 million or so self identified “radical” Muslims (especially those that espouse ideology like Sharia law, honor killing of women, suicide bombings of civilians, tossing gays off buildings, hatred of Jews, Christians, etc.) will react to the “little Satan’s” (Israel) brazen attack on Iran and the “big Satan’s” (USA) tacit support.
Given our lax immigration and vetting over the years, and the probability that Islamic linked terror cells exist within our country, it is not outside the pale to expect some sort of retaliatory attack on a soft American civilian target to punish the United States for its support of Israel. Hopefully I’m wrong, but I suggest we all practice a heightened sense of situational awareness and keep our heads on a swivel until this all plays out.
Very concise view of the train-wreck that is Iran today. I’ve heard so many pundits telling us that to go to war against Iran would be a big mistake. Iran doesn’t look very powerful once you’ve peeled back the layers of protection they’ve enjoyed over these past 40+ years.. Iran’s proxies are all but vanquished, with little chance of replacing their weapons of terror – at least until the next democrat gains the office of POTUS.
Rinse and repeat.
So, who is the real enemy of the USA? Iran? Or is it the feckless democrats?
Thank you VDH.
George Hibard appears to have been hired by the Iranians to provide enough disinformation to confuse everyone. Iran with a bomb means no more Jews–Israel is a one-bomb country. Iran has killed thousands of Americans since 1979; does Mr. Hibard want to give them a chance to see how many more they can kill? Iran not building a nuclear warhead? How do you know? The Iran gov failed to reveal its nuclear related military activities as required by the NPT, the advanced protocol and the JCPOA #1. How many more deals do the mullahs get to pursue brining them a pathway to nuclear weapons capability? And why enrich to 60% as that is a short step to 90% which is bomb grade. And the technology deals with Russia, China and North Korea are for what? Missiles and bombs. Tucker C doesn’t get it. The nascent nuclear capability (the only thing to which the West pays attention) is being used by Iran to eliminate all economic sanctions, cement energy deals with Europe and Asia, and then under the cloak of another “fake” deal, secretly sprint to a nuclear capability to then surreptitiously put 2 bombs on ships and sail into Israeli ports. Or use a pop-up missile aboard a freighter. Surprise. No attribution. Trump and BB together figured out “ENOUGH.” Quincy, Tucker C, Tria Parsi, Omar and the Iranian mullah friends think one can endlessly receive a rope a dope treatment from this regime and magically the Mullahs will be transformed into as Prez Carter said gentle “Men of the cloth.”
Would like to hear more from Max Dublin & Victor about the culture, talent & resources of Iran, a Persian vs. Arab nation of people in the grips of an autocratic, Shiite theocracy.
Perhaps, Iran will become the focal point of an Islamic ecumenical movement, where Islam will experience a renaissance of its own recognizing other religions & ways of life.
IRT Mark Keller
June 16, 2025 at 11:18 am
Obama’s top aide was Valarie Jarrett, who’s family was from Iran. I cannot be certain she was an Iranian plant but she clearly had Obama’s ear on how to deal with Iran. She was intrumental in funneling billions to Iran, which did little to slow let alone prevent Iran from pursuing nuke capabliltiy. It clearly allowed Iran to fund proxies like Hamas and Hexbollah. Biden’s administration, do we know who was running that show, just reinstituted the Obama policy on/with Iran.
The missing piece is China. This is a war against them not against Iran.
BRI has to fail as part of the strategy to wind back Chinese dominance strategy.
Regime change in Iran and wiping out Hezbollah is a must do for future stability in that area. Iran has destabilised for far too long.
Thank You VDH.
Thank you PM Netanyahu and President Trump for finally destroying the Iranian nuclear threat. The free world is breathing a massive sigh of relief. For years we were told that we dare not attack Iran for fear of retaliation, so we might as well accept that they’ll have the bomb. We were even told by a worthless Barak Obama that we could reason with Iran. “If countries like Iran are willing to unclench their fist they will an extended hand from us.”
I think this is what Victor may call nemesis punishing hubris.
OMG. – tears of joy to have VDH make sense of the whole Israeli-Iran debacle. I’m so disappointed in Tucker not grasping that perhaps Israeli intelligence has more knowledge of what is going on in Iran to annihilate Israel with nuclear weapons. Perhaps someone needs to tell Tucker to look at this from a biblical viewpoint – has he ever heard of Ishmael & Esau. Why the ongoing hatred of Israel for 4,000 years. I wish we could have thousands writers/speakers like VDH.. Thank you for your clarity, wisdom and courage to make sense of this new crisis.
You will know the end is in sight when we provide the Israelis with the bunker busting bombs to eliminate the last of the nuclear facilities. That is not an if, it is a when.
Where were the Greeks? It’s about time they took on Persia again;)
Israel reaps exactly what it sows. Neither side eats bacon. NOT MY WAR!
If this doesn’t end soon, it will turn into a War of the Cities, like the Iran Iraq War. Then, Israel tells Trump, we need your bunker busters bombs from Diego Garcia. However, we don’t have an aircraft capable of delivering it, so you’ll have to do it. Or we’ll have to use one of our nukes.
Talk about someone left holding the bag.
Be careful fighting someone who doesn’t know when to quit.
Mike Tyson
As always, the always erudite VDH hits the nail squarely on the head in this game of Middle East Whack-A-Mole. I’m sure that 90% of Iranians would love nothing more than a regime change so that they can live in peace with the rest of the Middle East and enjoy the prosperity their country has to offer. As long as the ayatollahs persist in controlling the Islamic Republic (Totalitarian Aristocratic Dictatorial Theocracy) of Iran, its citizens are forever wedded to living in poverty. The ayatollahs remember what happened to Gaddafi in Libya after giving up nuclear aspirations. However, their days are numbered, as is always the case with totalitarians. God bless Israel and the United States for keeping up the pressure on the Iranian regime after two decades of U.S. Neo-con nation-building by Bush and appeasement by Obama and Biden. Trump is the most Pragmatic president (besides Reagan) that we have had in half a century.
Professor VDH, I hope Trump, his advisors and supporters are always listening to and consulting with you. How clear and rational you always are. Your fact based and comprehensive in depth knowledge and historical understanding of Russia, Europe, ancient Persia, the mid East and history in general, is invaluable. Thank you for your dedication to free speech and honest intelligent debate. You are the epitome of what true freedom and our Constitutional Republic is all about!
I follow yourself, as well as a number of others I realize have a better understanding of World events. I wish to pose a question, that I don’t know the answer to. Undoubtedly, your familiar with Tucker Carlson’s sentiment that there is “zero credible intelligence that suggests Iran is anywhere near building a bomb or has plans to”. He has argued that claims of Iran being close to nuclear capabilities are false and have been used for decades without proof. In my, unknowing opinion, if I had to guess; Iran does. My question is merely, does proof exist? I would love to hear your thoughts!
I can answer that question. You can’t fix stupid or a fanatical madmen with reason. Look at Hamas. If they surrendered some could have survived in the shadows. But now they will be rubbed out. Let’s hope DJT keeps the pressure on. that is the only way that despotic regime can be overthrown. Have to cut off the head of the snake, not just the tail if one wants to kill it.
Victor, what could Barak Obama and Joe Biden possibly gain for America from allowing Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon? Was there an alterial motive that hid their true intentions since Joe Biden went out of his way to restart the policy? Or, we’re they that incompetent to believe this was a good idea?
It is interesting to note that, at least initially, Jordan and Saudi Arabia were actually shooting down Iranian drones, headed for Israel. There is barely a country in the Middle East that does not, at least secretly, support the destruction of the zealous Islamic fundamentalist faction that currently runs Iran. And there is a good portion of the Iranian population that wish to be rid of it, as well. Putin has offered the Ayatollah Khamenei refuge in Russia, in a similar way he offered the same to Assad. While I disagree with much of what Mr. Hanson says about Russia’s ‘weakened’ military (but believe the exact opposite), in his own way, Putin is offering a solution. There was NEVER any chance that Iran was going to abide by any nuclear agreement. Netanyahu knew that, and Trump would have learned that his excellent deal making abilities would never convert Islamic fundamentalists to adhere to any deal with the ‘infidel’. One the first night, Iran sent hundreds of missiles into Israel. By Sunday night, the onslaught had been reduced to 65. The Iranian people are beginning to chant ‘death to the regime’. The Crown Prince of Iran has begun to make television appearances. It looks like there is that possibility that Iran, along with Lebanon, may revert back to the glorious countries that they once were.
Thank you Victor. This is maybe the best overview ive read so far. I’ve seen everyone preaching doomsday, so I am happy that you reminded everyone that Trump has always been clear about Iran willn’t have a nuclear weapon. He even said, this only ends in 2 ways, peacefully or one that would be bad for Iran. So, it puzzle me listening Tucker and others as if Trump wasn’t clear. These journey-come-lately maga supporters believe what they want to believe. Anyway, sorry for my rant. Thanks for a well conceptualized read.
Dr. Hanson, could you please explain what you mean by “Jacksonian” in relationship to Andrew Jackson, and President Trump’s Response to Iran.
Thank you.
Hate to say “we told you so” ….Twenty plus years ago, those of us withany amount of vision and understanding knew that it would come down to Israel being the tip of the spear to bring Iran [and other terrorist regimes] down. It took a leader named Donoal Trump, the best friend Israel ever had in the USA to watch its back. This isn’t over for a long-shot but it sure looks good less than a week into this campaign. Thank you Prof. Hanson for your wonderful daily essays, podcasts and insight.
An excellent analysis but I feel compelled to make one amendment when the regime in Iran changes the country will not become a failed state as are both Egypt and Jordan, nor will it become a frenemy as are they, but rather with its culture, talent and resources it will become the exact opposite of what it is now, a true a good friend of the Jewish state and forever grateful for having been liberated from the yoke of its repressive regime.
The comment from Victor that stands out is that in a matter of months, Israel has done more to settle the Middle East than the decades of US involvement.
My hope is that Israel will neuter the Iran regime and a new, sane and secular regime will replace it.
I firmly believe that there are native Iranians who have assisted towards that goal.
I love this article and I have always been a big fan of VDH until I heard him say on one of his podcasts that he likes Tucker Carlson. Carlson uses the cloak of America First to hide his anti-semitism and anti-Israel agenda, which Victor is anything but anti-semetic and he is a lover of Israel. I am disappointed in Victor not distancing himself from Carlson and the likes of him.
Have always believed that Donald Trump would have Israel’s back. He will make sure Benjamin Netanyahu has all he needs to end the evil regime of Iran, who exists for EVIL only. God is on the side of Israel. A tiny country, but protected by the Almighty Lord.
Yes, the evil regime needs to end, while the Trump administration is there to help.
God bless Israel
God bless the USA
Mary Lou Arkfeld
Thank you Victor! Perhaps omar and tlaib should be sent to Iran to try and convince them of the virtues of democracy versus theocracy. It is well known that they are ardent supporters of he American system of democracy – right?
Perhaps their view of history has a longer time frame. Perhaps they see the West,America & Isreal as civilizations in terminal decline. Perhaps they see DJT as a short term anomaly. Perhaps their only goal is to survive to fight another day. The inflection point comes when the Iranian people believe that if they revolt the West will not abandon them. Or sit idly by on their collective hands. Like Obama did.
Wouldn’t it be great if Victor’s prognostications were proven to be right, i.e., a neutered, secular & sane Iran for a change, at least for a while. We need to focus on our trade agreements, China & our national debt.
The regime cannot be allowed to survive. Now is the time for Israel to to strike and vaporise the ayatollah and his top cronies. Everything is pointing in that direction.