Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
Donald Trump’s far-ranging counter-revolution, to quote the old Star Trek mission statement, seeks “To boldly go where no one has gone before.”
Because no conservative president has dared to question the last 70 years of progressive cultural, social, economic, and political dominance, all traditional wisdom, all our renowned “experts,” and all the self-described “authorities” have no real credibility in their mostly flawed analyses and wrong prognoses.
Read what our legacy media predicted in March for this summer’s economy, or in January for the future of the border, or what would happen should the U.S. Air Force enter Iranian airspace.
Take the border. “Comprehensive immigration reform” (a euphemism for rolling amnesties and a still-open border) was the establishment’s answer to 10,000 foreign nationals storming the border during peak surges of the Biden administration.
But no president had ever simultaneously 1) pressured Mexico to close its borders and patrol ours, 2) announced a plan to complete a border wall along the entire US-Mexico boundary, 3) stopped catch-and-release, 4) ceased refugee applications after illegally entering the U.S., 5) introduced policies encouraging voluntary self-deportation, and 6) prevented all illegal entries at the border.
The result is that we do not know the full effects of these combined border policies.
So far, one million foreign nationals have lost jobs, and 2 million Americans have gained them since Trump’s inauguration. How much money will be saved in local, state, and federal entitlements if illegal immigrants return home?
How much trauma and costs will be avoided if 500,000 criminal aliens are deported?
How many serious and lethal hit-and-run accidents will be prevented?
To what degree will the idea of citizenship be reenergized once it is not reduced to the equivalency of mere residence?
How many emergency rooms will have more space for U.S. citizens? No one knows, but the consequences could be enormous.
The U.S. has never applied so many tariffs in so many ways upon so many goods from so many countries. As a result, economists have sworn since March that we are headed to a recession, stock collapse, stagflation, and high unemployment.
But do they really know the profit margins of our mercantile importers, who tariff our goods but expect easy entry for their exports to the U.S.?
Can importers pay a 15% tariff, still make a handsome profit, and not raise costs excessively on the U.S. consumer? If trade surpluses do not matter and tariffs hurt those who implement them, why do sophisticated Europeans, adroit Japanese, and smart Chinese prefer surpluses and tariffs to our deficits and zero or low tariffs? Are they on to something?
Do moderate tariffs encourage rather than retard American enterprise, on the theory that it will not be undercut by dumping and exchange manipulation and can also compete with far cheaper energy and transportation costs?
No one really knows these answers because the U.S. has never tried the current policy in quite the present way before. We do know that the radical free trade and asymmetrical tariffs of the last half-century empowered China to world power status with a dangerous military and hollowed out the U.S. industrial interior.
Is the $2 trillion budget deficit, as predicted, set in stone? Will the national debt only grow to unsustainable levels? However, federal agencies have never announced annual cuts of nearly $200 billion—along with a ten percent reduction in the budget deficit.
Never has the government promised to deregulate and fast-track permits for construction, energy development, and manufacturing from 2-3 years to mere months. What will the financial results be?
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum suggests that $15 trillion in new foreign investments are now promised. If accurate, what will such influxes do to employment? To federal revenues? To the economy in general?
Is it possible that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could be right that $300 billion in federal income will come from new tariffs—if true, that might reduce the deficit by another 15 percent?
What is the effect on the economy of cheaper energy costs when production is slated to rise without draining the strategic petroleum reserve on the eve of elections?
No one has ever questioned universities before so systematically.
We do know that student loan debt has spiraled to $1.7 trillion. Graduation rates have dropped to about 50-60 percent of those who enroll. The average student now takes six—not four—years to graduate. Today’s graduates, by all accounts, leave universities with fewer analytical skills, less language fluency, and reduced general knowledge than in past decades. Faculties have never been more weaponized, with 90-95 percent reportedly holding progressive views.
If universities are taxed on their endowments, will that not force them to reconsider their efforts to maintain their non-profit status?
Will 15 percent limits on overhead charges on federal grants force researchers to watch their budgets and universities to curb their bloated administrative legions?
What is so wrong with curbing the tuition gouging and profiteering off foreign students, and limiting their numbers to ensure access to underserved, deserving Americans?
Will the end of segregated dorms, safe spaces, and “affinity” graduations lead to more integration and assimilation than do the current tribal fixations on race and ethnicity? Historically, does tribalism or assimilation best serve a nation?
Will meritocratic admissions improve student skills, rewarding those who study hard and encouraging those who do not to emulate those who do? Will minorities who are admitted under meritocratic criteria be seen as more or less qualified?
Are far fewer administrators, more emphasis on instruction and less on politics, and more students from the heartland and fewer from communist China or the illiberal Middle East such bad things?
In the last 50 years, affirmative action transmogrified into DEI racial separatism, chauvinism, and a system of reparatory spoils, played and manipulated by grifters, opportunists, and fakers, from Elizabeth Warren-style phonies and Jussie Smollett-like con artists to opportunists like Zohran Mamdani who game the system.
Has any chauvinistic multiracial democracy—like Brazil or India—or any multiethnic or multireligious confederation—such as Lebanon, the former Yugoslavia, or Iraq—ever succeeded by prioritizing caste, race, religious sectarianism, or ethnic tribalism?
Can any top-down imposed policy ever be successful when 70 percent of the electorate opposes it?
Can any government that institutionalizes bias and preferences succeed while ignoring class in favor of race—without ever clearly defining which racial criteria justify the entire spoils system, or why?
In our postmodern 21st-century system, no one knows exactly what will happen when race becomes incidental rather than essential. But we do know from history where we were headed under the current aberrant system.
Abroad, in the last 30 years, NATO was voluntarily hollowed out—largely praised in the abstract by European grandees and shorted and ignored in the concrete by Euro budget technocrats. Yet since the days of the Cold War, NATO members had not met their defense expenditure promises.
Now, most NATO members have met those commitments. Frontline NATO states like Sweden, Finland, and Poland are far better armed and prepared than legacy Western members like Belgium, Spain, or Italy. If there follows a rearmed and recommitted NATO, will not the world become a safer place?
We were told for a half-century to steer clear of Iran, the supposed unhinged, lethal bully of the Middle East. Their henchmen blew up barracks and embassies, took and executed hostages, and sowed terror throughout the Middle East with their killer surrogates Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
But Iran had never really fought, much less won a war, since it pleaded with Saddam Hussein for an armistice from the catastrophic Iran-Iraq conflict.
What will be the effect on the Middle East with a currently impotent Iran, an inert Hezbollah, and a subterranean Hamas in hiding? More importantly, what is the current regional role of Iran without a nuclear program, air defenses, a navy, or expeditionary terrorist forces? Again, no one knows.
Finally, we have never seen anything quite so radical as the new Democratic Party, at least not since the McGovern blowout of 1972. In its 24/7, 360-degree fixation on hating Donald Trump and his MAGA agenda, rarely has a party embraced signature policies that are so despised by the American people. As a result, we have no idea what the result will be other than a national implosion at the polls.
Why would any political party embrace open borders, the influx of 12 million illegal aliens, 600 sanctuary cities, biological men dominating women’s sports, dismantling the oil, gas, coal, and nuclear industries, prosecutors who release rather than indict and convict violent criminals, defunding the police, tribal fixations and racial spoils systems in defiance of the Supreme Court, the terrorists of Hamas over democratic Israel, and overt campus anti-Semitism?
We are in the middle of a counter-revolution, whose fate will likely be decided in 15 months by the midterm elections and the status of the late 2026 economy.
Structural changes across the economy, culture, and politics of the country are underway. Our bicoastal experts and authorities are mostly predicting a multifaceted systems failure—without explaining why or how.
Yet the only constant in their predictions is that when and if they prove wrong, they will not pivot, correct, or apologize, but simply move on to their next flawed prognosis, fortified by their titles and letters after their names—but otherwise little else.
A lot of questions for the reader but not many answers. On one hand it gives the reader the chance to decide for him/herself. But that said it would have been interesting to hear the authors take
To me, the two necessary reforms proposed by Ron Nixon are very important. Having elections every two years distracts from governing and involves too far much money. Velvel Rice also makes a good point about VDH’s website promoting gold versus the US dollar. We need to get our government spending under control, yesterday.
Professor, Please, please remind everyone that Rome collapsed because of its’ ‘affordability’ crisis:
FREE STUFF, COIN DEBASEMENT, FREE FOOD, FREE ENTERTAINMENT, FREE HOUSING etc., AND few people creating wealth.
Boy, the greatest thing Democrats have going for them is the ignorance of their supporters. Pretty funny, because they are not cogent enough to recognize they are being lied to.
Oh well. Hope you’ll help ID how well ‘affordability’ worked out for the Roman Empire.
My hope is that this entire commentary can be posted in every major newspaper and online news source. across America by VDH.
responding to Jeff H above: you are on the right track about the marxists of the 60’s or so going after the education system. This is correct.. but it began in earnest about forty years before that. I have read of communist infiltrators working hard here in the US to plan and apply a wholesale coopting of our education and entertainment systems here. This they have accomplished, and, sadly, far too well.
In education, begin dumbing down the system to produce weak, ignorant, and lazy citizens, That sort will not uncover the goals of corrupt government and thus simply go along with the flow.
In entertainment, erode the system of high moral values and practices, the worth of healthy families, integrity, hard work, and vision casting for a better future.
I am sad to observe they have largely been successful in this transformation goal. I do see a strong ray of hope with the present administration, being repeatedly astounded and pleased at the high quality of new hires to Make America Great Again About time.
Bravo Prof. Hanson. Very good overview of Trump’s accomplishments on the domestic front: closing the border, deregulation, cheaper energy, etc. I am skeptical, however, regarding his tariff policies, the effects of which have yet to be fully played out. One of the immediate consequences of that policy is the fall in the value of the dollar vis-à-vis a basket of currencies. In January, the dollar was near parity with the Euro; as of July, it declined to $1.18 to one Euro. Such a drop jeopardizes its status as the world’s reserve currency. The negative implications of a weaker dollar are self-evident and massive.
As a longtime devotee of Victor Davis Hanson’s work, I’m writing this with real disappointment.
I received an email from Blade of Perseus that carried an advertisement predicting financial Armageddon from President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” — the very bill Dr. Hanson has publicly supported.
I’m aware of the disclaimer stating that the opinions are those of the advertiser and not the website. But notwithstanding that legal shield, the ad went out under his banner, trading on his name to push a message completely contrary to his stated views.
For decades, I’ve admired Dr. Hanson for standing firmly against hypocrisy and for upholding intellectual integrity. Allowing fear-mongering ads that contradict his own positions to reach his followers is, in my view, hypocritical and against the very values I’ve come to respect in him.
MAGA
Again
Trump 2.0
VDH,
I don’t know how they did it but the Democrats were able to establish that they are the party of “The Moral High Ground.”
That false perception is what has attracted so many people to their positions.
Who wouldn’t want to be associated with people who have high moral values.
This problem has been going on long before the 60’s and 70’s.
The tactic worked and over the years they became more and more radical.
They were able to literally own, take hold of the education system in the USA which allowed them to indoctrinated young minds to their increasingly radical narrative.
Pre-K, Kindergarten, it is never too early to start indoctrination of these young minds Unfortunately it is still going on entrenched in our education system.
The remedy is a “Hard Stop,” does that mean breaking down, may be, but the Harder the Better, kinda like the Southern Border.
The third paragraph from the end sums up the big question we as a nation face in the upcoming midterm elections. Will our country remain on track and continue the necessary reforms of the MAGA counter revolution or will we snapback to our set point?
Like a dieter fighting the urge to eat comfort food and return to lifestyle choices that are slowly killing him, Americans will be tempted to return to the past and take the soft option of letting deficits grow and social justice policies continue, knowing full well the consequences.
We are also facing institutional challenges that could determine our future. First, having three independent branches of government that require elections every two years. This is unnecessary and fatiguing to the electorate. The net effect is that we are in a perpetual state of electing a government that does very little governing. Voters are understandably exhausted from the never ending campaigning. The effect is that some voters choose to ignore the election process altogether. Second, the massive sums of money required in American elections and the undue influence of the billionaire class. As an individual voter I’m limited to $2300 that can be contributed to elections in a year. Soft money contributions from PACs and big donors is unlimited. This has had the effect of swaying elections as was seen by Zuckerburg’s $419 million in the 2020 elections and Musk’s $150 in the last Pennsylvania race.
We need serious reform in these two areas.
After being subjected to the last 4 years of radical woke ideology, sanctimonious lectures, shaming, censoring, cancel culture dogma, I have an even greater appreciation for President Trump’s trustworthy, pragmatic leadership. Admire his astounding strategic achievements and steadfast, courageous efforts in putting America first while pursuing peace initiatives to benefit everyone. Promises made. Promises kept indeed. Quite a novel and productive approach in the world of self serving, power hungry politicians and bureaucrats.
Once again VDH nails it. He has a way of putting everything into perspective, and you have to ask yourself; why would anyone vote Democrat? Especially with their poll numbers in the basement. It’s obvious that the American people get it, why don’t the Democrat politicians???
Yes! Well stated. In fact, uniquely stated because no one – NO ONE – has made the effort to ask all of these legitimate questions from the neutral/positive perspective. All of these what-if’s are highly consequential not only to the country but to the world. Your summary made it clear to me what an absolute Godzilla our president is. World leaders bow and scrape and allow him to call the shots! Only Putin is being obstinately resistant (and maybe that Euro/Canadian), and I don’t think that will fare well for him/them. One thing you didn’t mention – the Federal Reserve. How’s that going to work out? Somehow Trump WILL have his way. He’s running the table, isn’t he?
Follow up: Don’t tell me VDH can’t take a wee bit of hilarious criticism, after all it was he who specified the “old” Star Trek…meaning it has to be, “where no MAN has gone before.”
Astonishing when all in one spot. THANKS
Thank you again for the clear, factual and rational analysis of our current political and cultural state of affairs. I am pleased you have this platform to elaborate on your views and analysis. I am always frustrated when your views are asked but you are expected to reduce a very thoughtful concept into a catch phrase rather than an understanding. Glad you continue to be asked to comment however brief .
As Rush would have named them, the Drive By Democrats.
“Faculties have never been more weaponized, with 90-95 percent reportedly holding progressive views”
This is the root cause of the American Progressive Era… AOC, Bernie-bros, sanctuary cities, pervasive drug culture, dystopian homeless camps, surrendering the border to migrants, climate change as a religion, gay/trans culture in virtually all entertainment and corporate branding, abortion as the primary/sole voting motivation… it all starts in US public education. The Marxists of the 60’s and 70’s knew that the path to system control was through the children. It took them decades, but they were deliberate and methodical, and they now own American education. Sorry to say, but nothing is fixed yet… the US will keep churning out generation after generation of entitled, useless, outrage-driven coffee shop Wi-Fi connection “slacktivists” as long as education is still their system to wield…
Once again VDH asks the hard questions.
He also provides different perspectives that are well founded, clearly stated and at the very least elicit the “hmm, come to think of it I’ve never thought about it like that” response.
The only other voice I’ve ever come across that matches VDH’s is that of George Orwell.
These questions are the true underbelly of the Trump administration… still unknown consequences, that could “make America greater than ever”..
But the biggest question to me is WHY has no president before him touched on most of it??….
How many presidents have promised to put an embassy in Jerusalem, but never done it! How many have talked “peace in the Middle East”…but never accomplished it?…Why did no past president make “energy independence” a goal? Etc Etc
Thank you – excellent summary – key point for me – we don’t know how all of Trump’s policies will work out, but what we do know is that the those predicting failure have been wrong so far.
The Left’s stranglehold on education remains largely intact. Where are all the replacements for the Marxist/Nihilist teachers and professors? Our young are still vulnerable to indoctrination by the teachers now in place.
Touche Dr. Hanson, touché. An excellent summary. The left is so out of touch with what matters to most Americans.
This should be required reading for all politicians at the local, state and certainly Federal level.
Thank you.
If what you write is accurate, and I believe it is, why is there any doubt about the outcome of the 2026 midterms? Are Americans that stupid? Are there that many people with blue hair & Level 4 TDS? There is a huge “missing piece” in this analysis, hopefully the midterm results will be 1 more item on the long list of things the big brains got terribly wrong
And you call yourself an historian! “…where no one has gone before.” WHAT! It’s “man,” VDH, not “one.” Buckling under to woke?!?!? If you fancy yourself a Trekkie your credentials are hereby revoked. Otherwise yet another stellar column.