Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
What did Donald Trump do differently to obtain at least temporary calm in the Middle East compared to the failed efforts of past administrations, foreign powers, and the United Nations? Let us count ten different approaches.
- Trump curtailed a considerable amount of Iranian oil income and its dispersal. He stopped, for the near future, the Iranian effort to build a bomb. Trump also allowed Israel to destroy Tehran’s air defenses, humiliate it militarily, and eliminate many of its top military officers and nuclear physicists. Thus, Israel’s half-century-long worries about Iranian nukes were addressed. At the same time, its stature as a military power soared to an all-time high—even if it became more isolated politically. Israel became more confident but also more sensitive to past, current, and future American military and political support—or pressure.
- Trump allowed Netanyahu to destroy Hamas, cripple Hezbollah, and retaliate at will against the Houthis. That liberation led to general dejection among Israel’s enemies and a resurgence in Netanyahu’s own political fortunes. And that rise of Israel and the collapse of the Iranian terrorist network—the “ring of fire”— explain the greater chances for a ceasefire and possibly a peace. Trump allowed no daylight between Israel and the U.S., which, under the Biden administration, may have sent the wrong signals to Hamas prior to October 7.
So there is now no terrorist Palestinian leader, such as a Yasser Arafat or an all-powerful Hamas killer, to sandbag negotiations. Instead, Trump involved a number of self-interested surrogate Arab officials who have the money and influence to rebuild Gaza and restore calm on their own terms. Trump and Israel are not just negotiating from positions of historic strength, but they have also empowered the reasonable Arab nations to have honor and clout in Middle East negotiations in an unprecedented fashion.
- Trump also leveraged all his benefactions to Israel by pressuring it to agree to a ceasefire. Even the optics of a strong Israeli leader conceding to Trump that there would be no annexation of the West Bank gave the U.S. credibility in the Arab world as an honest broker and yet paradoxically helped Israel’s global reputation—as well as Netanyahu’s—as a more flexible negotiator.
- Trump used the Abraham Accords and his much-maligned tariffs, along with expanding or curtailing commercial access into U.S. markets, to pressure—or persuade—the Gulf and moderate Arab states to ensure funding for Gaza reconstruction and the continued political weakening of Hamas. There is a sense in the Middle East, as elsewhere, that when it comes to new technologies such as AI, robotics, genetic engineering, and cryptocurrencies, the U.S. will remain the global leader, and thus a nation to court and please.
- Trump, in carrot-and-stick fashion, promised a defense protection pact with Qatar—the proverbial untrusted wild card of the Middle East. But his new quid pro quo “protectorate” also implied reining in Qatar if it should resume its customary double-dealing that so infuriates its neighbors and increasingly enrages the West. The Israeli attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar, and the signal Israel could strike again at will, terrified Qatar and drove it to seek protection in—new dependency on—the U.S.
- Trump dealt with enemies, allies, and neutrals from a position of strength, comparative advantage, and national ascendance, unlike the appeasing and anemic Biden years or the apologetics of Obama. The successful complex bombing of the Iranian nuclear facilities and the past elimination of terrorist Iranian General Qasem Soleimani and ISIS founder and thug Bakr al-Baghdadi ensured Trump was seen as more serious than either Obama or Biden ever were.
The Arab world and Israel also understood that there are no alternatives to Trump. Russia’s Syrian outpost is gone. Moscow is bogged down in a forever war in Ukraine and under sanctions. It is no longer a force in the Middle East.
Trump has confronted China and exposed its economic vulnerabilities, ensuring that the Arabs saw no outside power comparable to the U.S.
Chinese and Russian allies, like the Iranian theocracy and the former Assad dynasty in Syria, were also shown over the last year to be shrill, impotent, losing clients. At home, restoring the U.S. border, strengthening NATO, rebooting the U.S. military, fast-tracking energy development, and cracking down on crime fed the impression of an American renaissance rather than the continued Obama-Biden-managed decline.
- Trump was entirely transactional. Unlike the Biden administration, he did not libel the Saudis, or demonize Netanyahu, or take seriously any of the past proverbial empty “peace plans” of a corrupt UN or of terrified Europeans. He had no sooner destroyed Iran’s nuclear capability than he allowed a ceremonial but innocuous “hit” on a U.S. base in Qatar and then declared he wanted to “make Iran great again.” For someone who is supposedly mercurial, holds grudges, and is reckless, Trump was careful to treat all the major parties with deference and a clean slate and offered them trade and military deals rather than diplomatese and platitudes.
- Europe went from sandbagging Trump in 2017 to 2021 to calling him “daddy” once they realized that only Trump could save Ukraine and, by extension, Europe from Putin. The result was not an anti-American Europe trying to intrude into the Middle East negotiations or ankle-biting the U.S. To the degree that Europeans save face, it is by symbolically recognizing a Palestinian state, but not materially altering realities on the ground in Gaza. For the most part, there is now a calmer Europe, relieved that Iran was denuclearized and the Palestinian terrorists in the Middle East might no longer trigger unrest among Europe’s own restive and unassimilated Muslim populations.
- At this 11th hour, Hamas was reminded that it has no real alternatives—as the rubble of Gaza attests. Trump signaled to Israel that it could and can still go medieval on Hamas and its remnants should they resume terrorism. Otherwise, Gaza remains a bombed-out wreck. Qatar will be pressured to kick out its conniving Hamas billionaires. The result is a stark choice: any Hamas attempt to rebuild its terrorist networks will ensure that it—and everything around it—will be moonscaped. Trump made it clear there are now no more sacred cows in the Middle East, no more safe spaces, and no more off-limits targets—juxtaposed to numerous win-win incentives that can lead to prosperity and security.
- The Middle East was not seen as a one-off U.S. peace effort—as is usually the case. Instead, it was envisioned as a continuation of a series of prior successfulTrump-led ceasefires between Rwanda and Congo, Armenia and Azerbaijan, India and Pakistan, Kosovo and Serbia, Cambodia and Thailand, and Egypt and Ethiopia. The Israelis and the Palestinians saw Trump’s success elsewhere and may have felt from such momentum that the same might be possible in Gaza.
And if the ceasefire holds, or at least reduces the violence, global attention will next turn to Ukraine. Expectations in and outside the Middle East will rise that if there can be quiet in war-torn Gaza, then that momentum might lead to progress toward peace on the Ukrainian border as well.
Dear VDH
I wanted to share my experience. As a member of the US Air force in 1973, first of the volunteer military. I flashed back to my emotions in the summer of 1973. On Monday Oct 13, 2025 while I witnessed the signing of a multinational peace agreement I recalled the apprehension, fear, uncertainty I experienced as a 17 year old military member.
One day in the summer of 1973 we were informed that our wing was to be deployed to Turkey for the middle east conflict taking place. Wow, where the hell is the middle east was my first thought. So many conflicting emotions and thoughts, all I wanted to do is take care of people and be the best Paramedic I could be. That desire came through but ultimately I was assigned and shipped off to South East Asia for the “conflict” still in progress there.
Tuesday Oct 13th was the first time in my adult life where I felt a deep breath that just maybe we would not have a global war in the Middle East. If this peace plan lasts a week, a month or years it is better than the last 50 years of complete uncertainty.
Peace among humans is much more difficult than most people realize, ego, pride, power and greed always cloud their judgement and actions.
I take my hat off to President Trump and all of the world leaders who are at least trying to achieve peace. Blessed are the Peace Makers.
As your resident Paramedic I will repeat, Just don’t die and thank god for another day of wonder.
Respectfully,, Chris L
These benighted people wil never stop fighting.
To Jontyd:
Trump wasn’t President a year ago.
VDH is too uncritical on these matters. Trump’s ‘plan’ is recycled, failed useless crap. Trump wrongly interfered with Israeli destruction of Iran, rightful retribution on Qatar and handed over Gaza to supporters, funders and co-conspirators of Hamas.
Trump could have had the hostages released a year ago if he applied pressure to Qatar and Egypt. He did none of this. He is bought off by Qatari & Saudi ‘investments’. The US base in Qatar is illegal under UNSCR 1373 and Trump’s statements about ‘everlasting peace’ are unhinged hyperbole and absurd.
If anyone deserves any credit it is Netanyahu that called all the shots correctly on Gaza, Hezbollah, Iran, Houthis and the PA He maintained the military pressure, refused to do piecemeal deals under enormous unrelenting pressure, went into Rafah and Gaza city and was about to annihilate Hamas, until Trump came in at the end with this useless plan to claim all the credit.
The Arab imperial and theological project of destroying Israel is still left intact and Trump is still responsible for that fact. In this he has proven to be just as corrupt and stupid as all who have come before him.
China & Russia are the two axis of evil in the world.
China & Russia are the two axis of evil in the world.
Great to see world leaders gather to celebrate this historic agreement. Common denominator seems to be the fear of jihadists topling Mideast dictatorships and fomenting more unrest in Europe. As well, everyone wants the oil to keep flowing, especially Europe. Nevertheless, these people will never stop fighting, even though their leaders might the benefits of western society and don’t want to be left behind.
VDH –
I had to adjust my hearing aids, change to my other prescription eyeglasses and wake myself up from what I thought was a dream about real, live unicorns! Did Barry Obama and Hillary Clinton actually commend and credit DJT for the peace in Israel and Gaza? No, that simply can’t be.
Get well soon!
Dr Hanson, as per usual you enlighten this forum with observations and insights that make perfect sense!
Reading the prior comments I have to agree to what the pro and con views are as I appreciate the current peace but I have reservations about how long those factions, eg, Qatar, Hamas, will remain quelled.
But let us rejoice for now, but cautiously.
And Godspeed on your return to good health
I printed this out to remember in all its steps and details a brilliant geopolitical strategy for peace. I bet Trump’s planned withdrawal from Afghanistan was as meticulously and thoughtfully designed – ultimately underestimated and misconstrued (to be nice). I am dismayed at how many concentrate on the obvious possibilty of peace not succeeding, as if continuing with past decades of a crazy status quo were a better option than trying something different. Obviously we will be on tenterhooks as the more difficut phases develop.
I read here that you are not well – maybe more effects of long covid? – and I do hope for your speedy recovery!
Sorry to hear you have been unwell Mr Hanson. Heard a Gazan woman on YT describe the mindset of Islamists in the ME and maybe I am the last to get it , but she said the Arab nations do not allow Gazans to be citizens of any Arab country for the purpose of keeping alive the ‘Palestinian /israeli/ occupation. The hope that may have some traction is that it seems Trump’s plan brings in all those parties of Arab nations and maybe this forces the issue. Kind of like if Al Sharpton Jesse Jackson Obama Biden were offered a chance to get something they want out of an anti Racism (real racism) peace deal.
I wonder what carrots were offered to those Arab nations who basically seem to have commissioned Gazans to play the victim part and suffer all these years. It is long past time to call the guilty parties to answer. Guess the smell of money buried in the Gazan coast -just ripe for development- is irresistible .
Professor Hansen,
From your article, it sounds to me like you think That there’s a chance of a lasting peace n the Middle East.?
Someone messaged me to say that I already said this. I didn’t.
Judi
Professor Hansen,
From your article, it sounds to me like you think That there’s a chance of a lasting peace n the Middle East.?
Judi
Thank you so much Victor Hanson. You are my voice of reason in complicated political, cultural, educational and worldwide EVENTS; you seem as tireless as Donald Trump! Now it appears there is some hope for “peace” in the Middle East, or at least “less violence” at present.
Will continue my PRAYERS for you and all those courageous people who continue to negotiate, with good faith, on behalf of free persons everywhere.
God bless you!
Great to see world leaders gather to celebrate this peace agreement. Common denominator seems to be the fear of jihadists topling Mideast dictatorships and fomenting more unrest in Europe. Of course, everyone wants the oil to keep flowing, especially Europe, but these people will never stop fighting, even though their leaders might recognize the benefits of western society..
Great analysis, of what occurred and concisely written. Thanks VDH!
Thank you Victor for the thoughtful analysis and breakdown of this historic peace agreement. Now that the hostages (and bodies) have been returned to Israel in exchange for 250 Islamic murderers and 1,700 Hamas combatants (hardly a fair exchange), the question of the successful implementation of the second phase of the plan comes into play.
I am dubious of how the Palestinian’s with their systemic hatred of Jews (and America), let alone their refusal to acknowledge Israel’s right to exist, will somehow learn to accept and deal peacefully with their Israeli neighbors. I also question the ability of a “Board of Peace” to de-militarize Gaza and work towards rebuilding Gaza (without tunnels). I have an inherent distrust of the middle east and the “religion of peace”.
Finally, as an Idahoan I was taken aback by the news that we are allowing the Qataris to build a training facility at Mountain Home Airforce base to train Qataris on flying and maintaining our F-15 fighter jets. Sorry, but the idea of training another countries fighters when they hold an Islamofascist ideology contrary to western values is greatly troubling.
This is where I am not as sure as VDH that Trump has pulled anything useful off and invoke my indepndent inteligence to disagree. This could go off the rails very easily and in any number of ways.
It’s a good start. But a good START.
Thank for all your good words and good work- you have illuminated Trump’s strategy which gives us comfort that there are well thought out plans in the works. Sorry to hear of your health difficulties- best wishes for the return of good health.
Praying for your renewed good health, dear Professor Hansen!
Sincerely,
Eleanor Venables
Thank you, Victor, for breaking it down for me.
While I am glad that Trump has gotten the guns to fall silent, I don’t believe this will be a meaningful peace. My guess is that it will take Israel’s enemies to rebuild their weapons arsenals in order to be able to attack again. My guess is this takes 3 to 5 years to rebuild.
There is one thing that was not mentioned here. Trump has no vested interest in constant war. The vast majority of Washington DC swamp creatures profit from war. Whether it is war with our people dying or causing wars like in the Ukraine that gets other people killed, these creatures love war and are war profiteers. Sad to say this is only a temporary lull before DC swamp creatures figure out how to start another war, which will enrich themselves and their buddies while draining America of its gold and precious treasure of young people.
Outta-sight insight! You are figuring out the five-dimensional chessboard over which Trump reigns! Because of Trump, Lee Greenwood, and Dr. Hanson I “am proud to be an American!” 🎶🇺🇸🙏
Not to take anything away from Israel or VDH (my favorite foreign country and my favorite long term analyst) but:
1. Israel’s long term concern with Iran’s nukes have only been addressed short to intermediate term, but not fully addressed. Had Trump allowed for Israel to bomb Iran’s oil infrastructure, Iran wouldn’t be able to finance its terror proxies or rebuild its nuke operations.
2. Trump assuredly did not allow Bibi to destroy Hamas. Last I noticed, Hamas is still alive and kicking. Yes, huge damage to Hamas is the best way to put it. Hamas is killing the clans, to allow it keep some control at worst over Gaza. And get new recruits into Hamas.
3. Helping Israel’s global reputation? With who? The moronic Western leaders are still saying they’ll recognize ”the Palestinian state.”
4. Qatar is a garbage state who has done huge damage to Israel and the West. Trump should have let Bibi’s IAF take out all the Hamas billionaires in Qatar. Stroking Trump is the quickest way to get on to his good side, and is among Trump’s few but greatest weaknesses.
Dear Prof. Hansen: well, you’ve gone and done it again! Yours is the first analysis I seek following a major event such as this (well, any event I’m interested in).
I’m so grateful for your brilliant and common sense opinions on world affairs. This is a perfect example that provides me with my own “talking points” about this huge event. My friends and relatives think I’ve magically expanded my brain power because of what you teach.
I’m a bit of a cynic at heart and know there will be bumps in the road. But in my many years on this planet I can say I’m very hopeful for success this time. I’ve never seen so many of our world’s leaders looking positive and grateful, wanting to be part of this.
Our President is a brilliant blessing and I thank God for saving him for us!!
Thank you VDH. I pray for your recovery, and that you remain well. ‘Ofa Atu.
Dear Mr Hanson,
Thank-you for laying it all out so concisely. Im grateful for your allways being able to help the average person understand complex politics.
I pray your health improves and that God almighty grants you peace and joy for many years.
I am praying for your complete recovery. I miss you when you are not posting. Jack, ignore all those people who say negative things about you: I think you are great: always well informed. I greatly enjoy your conversations with Victor!
Dr. Hanson: I thank God for all your work. This article gives excellent insights into the bigger picture of how President Trump and his administration have made such important progress.
Prof. Hansen, I hope your health is improving. Thank you for a reasonable article, at a moment when FOX and Newsmax are bubbling over with enthusiasm for the achievement of world peace. Let’s wait and see who is going to disarm Hammas.
Dear Victor: hope this comment finds you feeling better. I congratulate POTUS and his team for all their exemplary efforts in the global and national political arenas. I know one thing for sure; I sleep much better knowing that the likes of Harris/Walz are not dancing around in the oval office. The one wish I have before I meet my maker is that many of these left wing ‘traitors’ finally come face to face with justice. As stated before, I am a fatalist and as such, have little hope these criminals in both the left wing political and MSM circles will ever get their just desserts. Please stay healthy as the thought of not being on the receiving end of your perspicuity weekly makes me very nervous!
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