Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
On January 3, 2020, the Trump administration conducted a drone strike near Baghdad International Airport, killing Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani.
Soleimani had a long record of waging surrogate wars against Americans, especially during the Iraq conflict and its aftermath.
After the Trump cancellation of the Iran Deal, followed by U.S. sanctions, Soleimani reportedly stepped up violence against regional American bases—most of which Trump himself ironically wished to remove.
A few days later, Iran staged a performance-art retaliatory strike against Americans in Iraq and Syria, assuming Trump had no desire for a wider Middle East war.
So, Iran launched 12 missiles that hit two U.S. airbases in Iraq. Supposedly, Tehran had warned the Trump administration of the impending attacks that killed no Americans. Later reports, however, suggested that some Americans suffered concussions, while more damage was done to the bases than was initially disclosed.
Nonetheless, this Iranian interlude seemed to reflect Trump’s agenda of avoiding “endless wars” in the Middle East while restoring deterrence that prevented, not prompted, full-scale conflicts.
Yet in a second Trump administration, rethreading the deterrence needle without getting into major wars may become far more challenging. The world of today is far more dangerous than when Trump left in 2021.
An inept Biden administration has utterly destroyed U.S. deterrence abroad through both actual and symbolic disasters: the Chinese dressing down of U.S. diplomats in Anchorage; the humiliating skedaddle from Afghanistan; the brazen flight of a Chinese spy balloon across the U.S.; the invasion of Ukraine by Russia; the October 7, 2023 massacre of 1200 Israelis; the serial Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea; the visible restraint of Israeli from fully replying to Iranian missile attacks on its homeland; and renewed bellicosity on the part of both North Korea and China toward American allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
Of course, a second-term Trump must radically reform the Pentagon and beef up the military while warning enemies of the consequences to follow from any unwise aggression.
But if opponents believe such admonitions remain only vocal threats, then empty verbiage surely will erode deterrence further—such as Joe Biden’s serial and empty braggadocio, “Don’t!”
Biden’s past theatrical finger-shaking translated into aggressors like Putin going into Ukraine, Iran sending missiles into Israel, and the Houthis serially hitting shipping in the Red Sea.
Given the past messes of the Iraqi, Libyan, and Syrian interventions, and the catastrophic Biden humiliation in Afghanistan, Trump in 2024 is much more emphatic about the need to avoid such overseas dead-end entanglements or even the gratuitous use of force that historically can sometimes lead to tit-for-tat entanglements.
Still, Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance as vice president, along with Tulsi Gabbard, RFK, Jr., and Tucker Carlson as close advisors, coupled with the announcements that former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and prior UN Ambassador Nikki Haley will not be in the administration, may be misinterpreted by scheming foreign adversaries as proof of Trump neo-isolationism.
Moreover, the U.S. is battered by an unsustainable $37 trillion national debt and a nonexistent southern border that saw 12 million illegal aliens enter with impunity.
So, the use of force abroad is now often seen in a zero-sum fashion as coming at the expense of unaddressed American needs at home.
Moreover, a woke, manpower-short military has not achieved strategic advantages from wars abroad, while disparaging and alienating the very working-class recruits who disproportionately fight and die in them.
Recently, even as President-elect Trump’s inner circle emphasized an end to endless conflicts, Trump warned Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin not to escalate his attacks against Ukraine. Yet that advice was followed by a Russian massive drone onslaught against civilian Ukrainian targets.
Putin no doubt wishes to encourage American enemies to test Trump’s deterrent rhetoric against his campaign’s domestic promises to mind America’s own business at home.
Is there a way to square the deterrence circle?
Trump will have to speak clearly and softly while carrying a club. And for the first few months of his administration, he will be tested as never before to make it clear to Iran and its terrorist surrogates, China, North Korea, and Russia that aggression against US interests will be swiftly and quietly met with disproportionate and overwhelming repercussions.
Yet Trump will likely have to rely on drones, missiles, and air strikes and not on major engagements, to deter enemies from aggression—and his domestic critics from claiming he turned into a globalist interventionist.
He is not.
Trump remains a Jacksonian. But such deterrence entails warning from time to time the reckless and adventurous abroad that our allies have no better friend than America and our adversaries no worse enemy.
In other words, Trump must remind Americans only by periodically deterring enemies can he prevent endless wars.
Excellent summation, Victor. My main concerns now are:
1) it feels like a LONG TIME until Noon 1/20/2025. Currently, we are extremely vulnerable with a cluster of ineptitude at the White House.
2) the ever-present threat of an assassination to throw us into more turmoil
3) the sense that our enemies see an absolute deadline of 1/20/25 to take advantage of the situation
Question: Now that Trump is the President-elect, does he get the daily morning briefings? I would hope so.
he US is a cess pool, California being the worst, and our armed forces are assassins; why would youe possibly wish to pass that on to the rest of the world. The best part of the Rand report is that our armed forces are as incapable as our government is corrupt. The US is the antithesis of a stabilizing. We are disruptive, morally bankrupt and the agents of bankers, MIC, and the anglo-zionist cabal. You speak out against war but blame Russia, Iran, China when we are the instigators and mass murderers of non-combatants in places such as Afghanistan, Syria, Somolia, Jugoslavia, Libya, Iraq and countless more through our proxies. We would be betters off without the NS organizations that work more to destroy than protect.;
You call your site American Greatness; their is NOTHING Great about about America at this time.
You are obviously not a patriot. And, you sound like a non-citizen. We have many issues that, in time, will be diminished thanks to our new leadership. No matter where you are, you and yours face a much more difficult future. It is probably quite true that anywhere else your rancor, freely expressed here, would change your living conditions dramatically for the worse. We are the last best hope.
The only time you might have “seen it before” was when you were on LSD.
“if you want peace, prepare for war” comes from the book “Epitoma Rei Militaris,” by the Roman general Vegetius.
The challenges will indeed be greater, but at least Trump’s building a talented, like-minded (deterrence through strength/leverage) team.
I think we will see great numbers of military recruits in 2025 now that we have “boots on the ground” leadership and the end of wokeness.
That head-lock that the Houthis have on the Red Sea choke-point has got to be high on Trump’s “fix it” list… and now that Iran’s air defense system is down for the count, maybe it’s time to give them the type of attitude adjustment that General Jack Keane has been arguing for for months now.
Trump is about to ‘run the gauntlet’. After leaving tens of billions of dollars in military equipment behind in Afghanistan and sending a lot of military hardware and artillery shells to Ukraine in a piecemeal manner, our conventional firepower has been substantially reduced. And our bloated semi-Woke military leadership who cannot attract new recruits scares nobody but us Americans. The USA and most NATO countries are now in economic disarray. However, China, Russia and North Korea are also hurting economically. Once Trump is inaugurated, Iran will pull in it horns. Actually, they have started doing so once Trump won the recent election (Houthis and Hamas have said they are standing down). The last time we saw this was when Reagan was elected president and Iran released the embassy hostages. The first test of Trump will be how he handles the Russia-Ukraine war. Significant concessions will have to be made to Russia to stop that war, starting with making Ukraine’s admittance to NATO a no-go for the foreseeable future.
Wish all the bad guys would just build solid societies and try to just get along! What is their missions! Why do they have to rule everything! Was great to live some 50 or more years without having to be truly threatened by overseers! Always favored the Big Stick approach that deters them! Sad to see countries think they have to rule the world and it’s people!
America must give all military personnel a significant pay raise commensurate with the sacrifice and danger of the job. Making the military a well paying job to entice young men and women with many other options. The amount of money lost to incompetence and fraud alone in the American budget would more than pay for this. Thanks a million times over VDH, our modern day Paul Revere.
All good. Down to earth, typical, VDH comment and advice. I would like to request thoughts on the effects of reduction of Federal spending associated with the promised trimming of the Federal Bureaucracy. I have yet to see the due diligence associated with this promise
My Issue with DJT in his first term was his exorbitant spending.
Please advise on the due diligence required to finance the necessary reductions in the Federal Bureaucracy, the cost of the buildup of the Military and the resolution of the service of our gross national debt,
Items 1, 2, 3 are targeted for the new Sec Def, Pete Hekseth. He is a genuine warrior and recruiting poster. A former Spec Ops guy told yesterday he’s seriously considering reenlisting given the new culture he sees Hekseth bringing to organization. Rebuilding a warrior culture is the first step in a credible deterrent.
Top priorities for the DoD:
1-Improve recruitment
2-Improve morale in the ranks
3-Eliminate woke and rebuild a warrior culture
4-Clear out top heavy command
5-Fix procurement, eliminate waste and build domestic capabilities and capacity
Victor Davis Hanson is still broadcasting this lie. As usual, he doesn’t know that Trump and Putin did not talk:
“Recently, even as President-elect Trump’s inner circle emphasized an end to endless conflicts, Trump warned Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin not to escalate his attacks against Ukraine.”
VDH never said that they talked, and it is not at all necessary that they would have had to for Trump to issue said warning. The only lie is from you.
You write important messages to Americans Dr. Hanson. This message makes me think back to the history which I have witnessed and lived through. Contrary to SEENITBEFORE’S message posted above, America is not a cesspool with assassins for its armed forces. American armed forces stormed the beaches at Normandy, held strong at Bastogne, advanced into Berlin defeating Nazi Germany, fought countless battles against the Empire of Japan at Guadalcanal and many other Pacific islands, raised the American flag on Mt. Suribachi ultimately defeating the Empire of Japan saving China and Asia permiting the light of freedom to shine once again throughout that vast expanse of the world. Shortly after, it was the American armed forces rescuing South Korea from North Korea’s attempt to dominate that nation, and later imposing a roadblock to evil communist intentions in Viet Nam again permitting a degree of freedom throughout the world. Fortunately, enough Americans have absorbed the realities of life on this planet to peacefully rescue America on November 5, 2024 from the likes of SEENITBEFORE and his numerous counterparts.
Going forward it will once again take great effort and sacrifice on the part of all Americans. We are becoming a more perfect union. There is within my lifetime increasingly an inclusion of all individuals without reard to color of skin, religion, or country of origin. America is Great now and is going to become even Greater. Let us pull together in unity.
Absolutely spot on.
Just wondering, would Trump picking 3 or 5 individuals or organizations to “neutralize” in his first 90 days be enough of a “club” to show the world he ain’t messing around this time?
Grook: “Woke is Dead”
The woke are dead, their fever spent,
The people roared, the mandate sent.
Trump returned with victory bright,
The Dems in shambles, lost the fight.
Biden faltered, Harris fell,
The voters spoke, no magic spell.
The House, the Senate, all red’s gain,
A sweep so vast it stuns the brain.
The Cabinet’s here, a bold new crew:
Rubio’s voice for foreign view,
Tulsi’s mind in intel’s den,
Gaetz as AG shakes up again.
Hegseth, Defense, no beltway ties,
And RFK with health’s surprise.
The world reacts, the markets cheer,
A seismic shift is drawing near.
CNN and MSNBC in fright,
Half their viewers lost from sight.
RNC and Lara too,
Faced the light of public view.
But conservatives, oh, how they cheered,
A shift so grand, the path was cleared.
Before he’s sworn, the world’s in sway,
Markets soar, a brighter day.
The woke are gone, the air is clear,
A new dawn breaks—a time to cheer.
Wonderful !!!
This is completely backwards. Who travelled 6000 miles to pick a fight? It wasn’t Iran.
It’s this “opposite day” reading of events and Hubris which is gonna get a shit ton of your fellow Americans killed in the middle east.
I’ll give Trump credit for not taking the bait when the Global Hawk violated Iranian airspace and was promptly shot down (with a P7 full of officers right next to it)
This isn’t the 90s and Iran is nothing like Iraq. Russia can’t wait for this to be a Iran+proxies Vs US fight instead of Israel (Russia too is under the Zionist influence). Every scenario Pentagon did war games on ended up as disasters. But I know you’re gonna be stupid, so bring it on and all your assets in the region gets flattened. NATO Empire will finally be ejected from the region once and for all. Stay tha fu*k home!