Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
As the 1992 campaign approached, incumbent president George H.W. Bush was seen as a shoo-in for reelection.
The First Gulf War ended in 1991 with a spectacular U.S. victory at the head of a coalition that had expelled Saddam Hussein from Kuwait with few losses.
For much of 1991, Bush’s approval ratings hovered between 90 and 70 percent.
By February 1992, an obscure Arkansas governor, Bill Clinton, emerged as the favorite Democratic nominee. But he was written off as having little chance to knock off the popular Republican incumbent president with far more foreign affairs experience.
Bush, however, had just lost his brilliant 1988 campaign manager, Lee Atwater, to cancer. And third-party prairie-fire candidate Ross Perot had entered the race, drawing off conservative Bush support.
Most importantly, in 1990, the U.S. economy had experienced a mild recession that had bottomed out in early 1991.
By the 1992 election, the U.S. was headed to full recovery.
In the last six months of 1992, GDP rebounded at over an astonishing four percent.
The inflation rate in the months before the election was often less than three percent.
Even stubborn unemployment was starting to fall to 7.3%. The eight-month recession officially ended in March 1991, followed by continual positive economic growth.
No matter. The brilliant Clinton campaign still ran on the directive “It’s the economy, stupid” and the slogan “Putting people first.”
The Clinton theme song was the upbeat Fleetwood Mac hit “Don’t Stop,” highlighting the young Clinton-Gore ticket in supposed contrast to the 68-year-old Bush.
Key to the Clinton campaign rhetoric was the false charge of “the worst job growth since the Great Depression.” By November 1992, Clinton had convinced voters that the prior year’s recession was still in full force.
The doom-and-gloom, near-depression “recession,” together with Perot’s third-party candidacy and Bush’s sluggish campaign, won Clinton the presidency with 43% of the popular vote.
In response, the Bush campaign had tried to trumpet the administration’s many foreign policy successes.
The Berlin Wall fell in November 1989.
The Cold War ended in a U.S. victory.
Germany was reunified in October 1990.
In December 1989, Bush successfully removed the narco-dictator Manuel Noriega of Panama, who threatened the viability of the Panama Canal.
The Gulf War was won brilliantly by February 1991.
The nuclear START treaty was signed with the Soviet Union in July 1991, just before the USSR itself collapsed in December.
By any normal reckoning, Bush should have been a shoo-in: spectacular foreign policy successes and a rebounding economy after a brief recession that had ended 15 months before the November 1992 election.
Instead, the pseudo-recession of 1992 dominated the campaign. Indeed, Bush’s many achievements overseas were cleverly distorted by Clinton as proof that the globe-trotting president was more interested in the world abroad than “putting people first” at home.
As in Bush’s prior 1988 campaign, Lee Atwater would have torn the Clinton campaign apart as inexperienced and disingenuous. Atwater would have ordered Bush to talk nonstop about virtually no inflation, robust four percent economic growth, and declining unemployment.
Instead, the lackluster Bush campaign team never caught on and was crushed by Clinton, with help from the economic populist Ross Perot.
The pseudo-recession of 1992 should remind the Trump people not to repeat the same mistake in the 2026 midterms.
Trump’s first ten months of foreign policy achievements are almost as impressive as Bush’s entire four years.
He neutered the feared Iranian nuclear bomb project. He ensured Israel could devastate the terrorist cabals of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, as well as their sponsor, theocratic Iran.
Instead of a trade war, increased tariff revenue and fair trade agreements were signed.
The border was closed shut.
Military recruitment rebounded to near record levels.
NATO was strengthened, and the intractable Ukraine war may end in a ceasefire.
Compared to the prior moribund Biden economy, Trump’s has set new precedents: record energy production and falling gas prices; inflation now below the three percent he inherited; and third-quarter GDP growth at a remarkable 4.3%.
But more importantly, 2026 may see even stronger economic growth, given a historical $10 trillion in foreign investment, tax cuts, deregulation, ever-greater energy production, huge investment in new technologies like AI and nuclear fusion, and dozens of favorable trade deals.
Yet, the left, like the Clinton campaign of old, is talking nonstop bout “affordability”—both ignoring the Democrats’ own dismal 2021-2025 economic record and claiming Trump, like Bush, cares more about those overseas than at home.
Whether the pseudo-recession of 2025-2026 works as well as the fake 1992 recession now hinges on whether the Trump campaign learns from the past and from now on fixates on the economy.
I was looking to buy a home in 1991-1992. Interest rates were still above 8% for a 30-year fixed loan. By the summer of 1993, interest rates had fallen below 6% and a new home was 25% cheaper than those purchased in 1991-1992. Was this a continuation of Bush’s economic policies, or was it a paradigm shift in the way people viewed the economy under the Democrats and Clinton? Maybe a little bit of both.
God’s speed on your recovery Brother Vic, I’m not big on praying but I’m praying for you. Cape COD .
Unequivocally, Ross Perot, in essence, elected Bill Clinton. I’ve said often that this was some sort of vendetta by Perot against HW…
Question – who are you going to believe? The non-stop drivel of the corporate media who are teamed up with democrats or your lyin’ eyes which are backed up with plenty of objective data. Sadly, the former is what most people will fall for. In part because of the constant reinforcement provided by media and in part because people just like to complain and a fake economic story gives a premise to complain.
To a large portion of the voters, the messaging is presented by the corrupt MSM which has dishonestly destroyed Republicans since Nixon.
The unemployment rate increased during Bush’s term. Regardless of whether he had much control of it, people were feeling it despite the improving economic news. I don’t think it had as big an impact as you suggest. The spoiler in the 1992 election was Ross Perot. He got almost 19% of the vote to Clinton’s 43% and Bush’s 37.5%. Polls showed there was no chance he was going to win but he persisted. Had he withdrawn gracefully, it’s likely that Bush would have won since there was only a 5.5 point difference between him and Clinton. I think Perot’s massive ego is the reason the U.S. suffered decades of the corrupt Clintons and the massive destruction they wreaked.
I remember the 1992 election very well. From my perspective, Bush acted as if he didn’t care about domestic politics. He had a 92% approval rating after the Gulf War. He should have taken that opportunity to lay out a vision for substantive growth in America. The Democrats would have been afraid to fight him. But he did nothing. He didn’t even try to get a cut in the Capital Gains tax rate. He just went back to the White House and didn’t reemerge until it was too late.
It does not matter what positive economic or political aspects exist next year, the Democrats will LIE about everything! IT IS WHAT THEY DO, and IS ALL THEY KNOW!
I concur with the above comments regarding messaging..I also feel that President Trump should be emphasizing the need for Republicans to get out to vote in ’26. He should conclude every rally event speech with a reminder of the importance of the mid-terms and the need for our base to vote. If the Democrats win the House, his agenda will stall and we’ll once again be faced with Impeachment after Impeachment. Everyone..please commit to voting next November!
It is the economy…stupid! I had forgotten the precipitous fall of HW Bush and how little his huge successes on the international front were considered by the electorate. While it is possible to focus on two things at once, there does need to be a significant pivot by he Trump administration to the economy before it is too late. Trump’s recent speech about the economy was a start, however, I must admit, I can’t bear to watch those “addresses to the American public” which are little more than campaign speeches- even if it is a Republican touting the successes of Republican policies.
Sure hope that President Trump and his team pay attention to your wise words Sir.
I and many others here in England hope for continued victory for Republicans as our own country’s destiny feels very much linked to yours.
A Blessed Christmas to you and your family and hopefully continued peace and prosperity for Ameland the rest of the world in 2026
Praying for your quick recovery Victor. May the New year bring you better health and prosperity 😀😀🙏🏼🙏🏼❤️Always enjoy your podcast . Thanks for sharing your thoughts and wisdom.
The key wins you mentioned are executive successes but very few Congressional victories. Having this flow to House and Senate races will largely require a focused Trump campaigning as if he was on the ballot (the worst of Trump will be on the ballot as told by Dems). I’m afraid without total engagement by Trump, Republicans will at least lose the House and Dems will hamstring Trump’s final two years. I hope he understands this.
Thank you, Professor, for this timely Reverian warning.
All of this article is about a presidential poll. Trump is on no ballot, and while the top-line messaging is crucial, and Trump should emphasize all of his wins, this is very much a state-by-state duel about who else is on the ballot and what else is on the ballot. The party will need state-level ingenuity to get candidates and ballot measures that replace Trump’s presence on those ballots to draw supporters to the polls to vote. The national Republican structure needs collaborate with the state organizations in these matters. Get ballot measures that are a magnet to the typical Republican and independent voter, and no RINOs! And make sure Ukraine does not collapse before next November.
Victor: hope you and family had a blessed Christmas and you are feeling better from your procedures. I have to tell you, at 71 now, the first thing I do when I slowly climb out of bed is thank God for another healthy day! Time sure does fly when you’re having fun! I fully concur with your comments that ‘messaging’ is the all important key to the mid-terms. I call it the ‘Ostrich Syndrome’ (it’s a myth of course that these birds bury their heads in the sand) but based on what I am seeing, too many individuals have this mentality. In concert with this, the ‘gullibility factor’ is another key aspect of the voting public. Thankfully, my parents taught me that ‘paralysis by analysis’ is not always a negative personality trait. It has its pros/cons based on the subject matter. Trump and the administration’s hurdles will be to convince the ‘gullible ostriches’ that their policies are and will make a significant difference in their lives and how soon. Hopefully the GOP has an intelligent strategy going forward or we will need a miracle come next November! Best wishes and blessings to you, Sami, Jack and your families for the New Year. God bless our military and Veterans.
I know that the economy, “no new taxes”, and Ross Perot are usually given credit for Bush’s loss, but I was always skeptical. When I saw Sect. of Defense Colin Powell persuade Bush to stop the destruction of the Republican Guard for “humanitarian” reasons, I knew that the job wasn’t done, and we would be back. Many understood Bush’s reprieve as weakness, as did I. Sect. of State Baker’s allegation that if we removed Saddam, we would be responsible for running the country, was false. Once Saddam was gone, the Iraqis were quite capable of sorting things out for themselves. Whatever came next would be on them, not us. We would have left as heroes, not zeroes. Americans expect politicians to lie – we are used to that. But we don’t like losers, as the next election showed.
I get disappointed whenever Trump fails to stop the slaughter in Gaza, or the war in Ukraine, or renames the department if defense, or the Gulf of Mexico.
Most of these are not what impresses the man in the street.
$10 trillion dollars in foreign investments, if it ever materializes is what gets his attention.
Press on with this theme.
In 1992 it was “it’s the economy, stupid”
In 2026-28 it will be “it’s the cruelty, stupid”.
The rank cruelty of this administration is not going over well and by being in bed with Israel as much as it has been they’re tied to the atrocities in Gaza as the cherry on top. The 60 Minutes CECOT fiasco shows the vulnerable underbelly of Trump in 2nd term.
Also you just cannot compare 1992 vs now due to social media and 24/7 cable news. It’s a totally different communication world now.
The one thing everyone needs to focus on: have faith in President Trump. His sole purpose in life is to make America a better place to live without massive government interference.
Merry Christmas, you are very right to be concerned. The media/dems are in full blast negitive. In April, I think things will look very different. There will be massive tax refunds for the lower paid Americans. (Maybe not in blue states, which want their taxes on tips and overtime). I am shocked how good things look on my taxes and I am retired.
Clinton won because the Republicans never bothered to forcefully refute the many lies he and the Dems told. We have the Dems doing the same thing now and the Republicans need to get off their collective butts and not make the same mistake they did with Clinton.
Brilliant point by VDH. JD Vance or whoever the GOP candidate is will have to find a great campaign team to overcome the vast TDS cult momentum.
Remember Bush’s statement about “No New Taxes!” ?
President Trump did much better with “NEW! No Taxes! on tips, overtime, and Social Security.”
The results of that needs to be repeated over and over until the mid-terms. The so-called free press won’t do it because it contradicts the agenda item of defeating Trump.
Hopefully the Trump economy has the democrat left playing right into a Trump trap. The left blasted the ‘affordability’ mantra the last several months and now Trump has gotten big pharma to lower prices, grocery prices have fallen due as much to lower fuel costs as other factors. Wages increasing more than inflation rates. Interest rates stubbornly being lowered; families may see a home becoming more affordable as well as available when more of the illegal immigrants return to their native countries, or elsewhere! Trap set by President Trump’s team.
Merry Christmas and a very prosperous 2026 to all!
This is the example that I have ranted about for years that people, in general, don’t pay enough attention. Hopefully, with the alternative news sources, the Democrats and their co-conspirators with Main Stream Media, Hollywierd and Education cannot continually lie to the Citizens and get away with it and with absolutely no consequences.
History repeats itself as you delineate so well. I am praying for complete healing for you Victor. Thank you for your excellent analyses of events and the way it helps keep everything in perspective. God bless you and a very Merry Christmas!