Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
An October surprise is usually defined as the well-known (and more often left-wing) tactic of manufacturing or unloading a news story right before voting to surprise a rival without allowing them time sufficiently to respond or recover.
Think of the last-minute bombshell disclosure, five days before the 2000 election, that candidate George W. Bush had been cited for drunk driving over a quarter-century earlier. That surprise may have cost Bush the popular vote that year.
Sometimes, an incumbent can use his powers of office to warp the election. Joe Biden benefited before the 2022 midterm elections when leftist activists leaked the impending Supreme Court repeal of Roe v. Wade.
Closer to the actual voting, Biden sought to cancel hundreds of billions of dollars of student debt owed to the federal government. He also began draining the strategic petroleum reserve to lower gas prices (as he is doing again this election year as well). No wonder the predicted Republican midterm red wave ended up a tiny ripple.
More often, October surprises are more ad hominem and unleashed on a rival candidate’s supposedly previously undisclosed failings.
At the end of the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton’s team leaked news of her purchased bogus “Steele Dossier” as supposed proof of Trump-Russian “collusion.”
On the eve of the last 2020 presidential debate, Joe Biden delegated now Secretary of State Antony Blinken to work with former interim CIA Director Mike Morrell to round up “51 former intelligence authorities.” They were to lie that the incriminating Hunter Biden laptop was likely a product of a Russian intelligence “disinformation” operation.
The ruse worked—turning potential proof of Biden family corruption into a replay of the fake 2016 Trump-Russian collusion hoax.
This time around, apparently the Harris campaign could not wait until October or early November to spring their surprises.
Perhaps the Harris campaign’s impatience is due to Democratically-inspired radical changes to state voting laws.
Remember that in 2020, under the cover of COVID, Democrat legal teams got state laws altered to institutionalize early and mail-in voting in key states. Those changes reduced our once iconic Election Day into a mere construct when only 30 percent of voters cast their ballots.
So, former October surprises—both the embarrassing disclosures and the use of incumbency to warp the election—are now becoming earlier and more frequent preemptive “September” shocks.
Suddenly, the Federal Reserve Bank, just 50 days before the election, decided that interest rates that spiraled under Biden-Harris in reaction to their hyperinflation right now need to be slashed—as supposed proof that the Biden-Harris inflation is now over and the economy needs a sudden revving up.
Just as abruptly, on September 23, just 43 days before Election Day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was flown by the Biden-Harris administration—at U.S. government expense—into the United States.
More amazingly, Zelensky landed first in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, where most observers believe the currently deadlocked election will be decided.
No surprise, Zelensky immediately toured a Pennsylvania munitions plant making artillery shells likely destined for his Ukraine—at a time when the state’s voters are concerned about job losses.
The Harris-Biden administration was sending the not-so-subtle message that providing billions of dollars in arms to Zelensky’s Ukraine translates into jobs for voting Pennsylvanians.
But that was not all to this crass September surprise.
In an interview with the left-wing pro-Biden-Harris New Yorker magazine, Zelensky plunged right into the current neck-and-neck presidential race. He trashed Harris’s rival Donald Trump as someone who “doesn’t really know how to stop the war even if he might think he knows how.”
Not satisfied with that putdown, the Ukrainian president hit even harder Trump’s running mate and vice presidential candidate, J.D. Vance, as “dangerous” and “too radical.”
The left still talks nonstop about nonexistent 2016 Trump-Russia “collusion” and equally bogus 2020 Trump-Russian “disinformation.”
Yet it would be hard to define any clearer “election interference” than the current Zelensky surprise.
After all, has any vice president incumbent running for president ever flown in a foreign leader on a U.S. military jet to the one key U.S. state that will likely decide the impending election?
And furthermore, has any paraded him around that state’s weapons export plant while he trashed current Vice President Harris’s two opponents with invectives like “dangerous” and “radical?”
And why else was Zelensky’s Pennsylvania trip arranged by the Biden-Harris administration but to coincide with the traditional dates that mail-in and early-voting balloting start?
Yet were the Zelensky sudden Pennsylvania drop-in and his crude domestic politicking and trashing of Trump and Vance all that wise?
After all, Harris’s opponent Donald Trump had just escaped an assassination attempt from a pro-Ukrainian gunman—furious over Trump’s purported preference for a negotiated settlement to the 30-month-long, one-million-casualties war?
Add it all up, and sometimes September surprises backfire—when they appear to voters as crude and insulting rather than just conniving.
I don’t blame the candidates for October surprises. I blame the idiots who fall for them unquestionably.
The answer here seems clear. Mr. Tump needs to point out our military’s shortages and that we need to satisfy them first. Fear not Pennsylvania munitions workers, demand for your product is not dependent on Ukraine! In fact, that demand is far less reliable than our own and other allies!
Great answer!
The truth starts and ends here. Thanks!
Good column, sir, as usual. Sadly, Democrats have no scruples as to how low they will go in order to maintain/increase their power over the people….
Isn’t this foreign interference with an American election by the Kamala campaign? He used American taxpayers money to pay for this trip and campaign for Kamala in Pennsylvania. “Quid pro quo,” as far as I’m concerned. Where is the DOJ charges against whoever set this up?
Pray for a backfire.
It will backfire, if/when Trump’s re-elected. Per Victor, U.S. taxpayers are now covering 75% of the cost of this war. All Trump has to do is cut off the funds, and the war’s over, unless EU countries want to pay up. Zelensky sees the handwriting on the wall and is backing Harris. He has everything & nothing to lose.
I agree completely. Mr. Trump needs to win by a landslide so that the outcome can’t be altered by the powers that be. This war needs to end – immediately!
When will they fly in Putin as he has also endorsed Harris?
Progressives and the awful lame-stream media have one mode: “Whatever it takes!” They have demonstrated this tactic time and time again. Harry Reid’s accusation that Romney had not paid his taxes was effective, so the strategy was set. He was the epitome of an evil man…hopefully he received his proper final judgement.
Trump, Vance and all of the surrogates who speak on the ticket’s behalf, need to call out these tactics for what they are 1)abuse of the public trust 2) trickery of the public 3) desperate attempts to hold on to their ill-gotten power. In short, “They don’t give a damn about you, they only care about themselves.”
Partisan visit by Ukraine president to influence the election means that Harris’ foreign policy towards Ukraine is good for Ukraine and Trump’s is good for the United States.
It’s NOT about a fight to save a country’s sovereignty, it’s about one nation fighting a globalist take over of the world, starting with the Russian speaking communities inside UKRAINE AND select elites lining their pockets.
What nation is fighting a globalist takeover of the world?
Which country is representing the globalists?
The US Army Ammunition plant is in Scranton Pa. Strong democrat town and county already, little benefit left. But Zelensky trash-talk Trump and Vance is especially bad bet. When Trump wins, in 50 days, he will draw a line on the map and tell Zelensky that is Ukraine new border.
Another example of corruption in our country. Can it be beaten? It seems impossible at times.
Trump will have more success brokering a peace deal than Zelenskyy and/or Biden ever could; if in fact either of those two clowns want to end this war in Ukraine. Seems too much of the US tax dollars are flowing into the coffers of Zelenskyy’s friends and family with the villas and yachts being purchased. Since Zelenskyy called Trump out, I believe he just shoved his foot into his oversized mouth and may have boosted Trump’s chances in November.
I also suspect he misjudged those folks in PA making munitions. They know the US supply is low and there are threats around the world that make it imperative we restock our own munitions and Strategic Petroleum Reserves.
While I do not wish ill health to Zelenskyy; the people of Ukraine may be better off if he did not make it back to Kiev!
Perhaps the Zelenskyy visit to PA was bundled with his UN speech?
We are all in trouble when Lying becomes an art form.
Shame on our government for promoting the Neocon view of perpetual war. I check the news every morning to see if we are involved in another conflict that is not in our National interest.
Trump wil. Spend more money to bolster the US Military’s strength as part of his plan to “Make- America-Great-Again” than Biden Harris are now spending taxpayers dollars to benefit the US. War machine makers in Pennsylvania in aid of the Ukraine. Why does’nt MAGA let the people of PA know these facts?
The hilarity of using Zelensky in an attempt to affect the US election, when Zelensky has cancelled elections in his own country….a ‘minor point’ that should not go unnoticed.
Good insight
Excellent commentary Mr. Hanson, as usual. Let us all hope that the average American, who is clearly NOT better off today than 4 years ago by any metric – shows up and votes for a landslide win for Mr. Trump.
The Hare and the Fox’s Surprises
Once upon a time, in a bustling forest, the clever Fox plotted to be crowned king. He had heard whispers that his rival, the Hare, was gaining favor among the animals for being swift and sharp. So, the Fox devised a cunning plan.
“An October surprise will surely win me the crown,” he thought. But he grew impatient and decided to strike earlier, in September.
First, the Fox spread rumors about the Hare’s secret stash of carrots, claiming he had stolen them. Then, he paraded the forest’s best hunter, a fierce hawk from far away, to show his power and foreign connections. The hawk declared, “The Hare is weak and dangerous! Only the Fox can protect you.”
Yet the animals, growing wise to the Fox’s tricks, were not easily fooled. They saw his ploys for what they were—insults and distractions. As Election Day arrived, the animals chose not the one who surprised them with trickery, but the one who had always been swift, fair, and reliable.
And so, the Hare won the crown, while the Fox, outfoxed by his own games, slinked away.
Moral: Surprises and schemes may backfire when they are seen as crude rather than clever.
Mark Twain might summarize the essay like this:
“Well now, it seems the political playbook hasn’t changed much. Every election season, some fella dusts off the old trick of tossing out a scandal or two at the last minute—usually when the other side has just about finished lacing their boots. They call it an ‘October Surprise,’ though these days the surprises are showing up earlier, in September, like bad fruit before harvest time.
Victor Hanson spins the tale of how politicians—especially the left-leaning variety—can’t help but meddle in the headlines when their numbers are slipping. They’ve turned Election Day into a drawn-out affair, so the surprise attacks just come earlier. They wheel out foreign leaders, toss around big promises, and try to paint their opponents as the devil himself—hoping the voters won’t notice until it’s too late.
But as Hanson points out, sometimes these surprises end up being as subtle as a cannonball at a tea party. Instead of helping, they just make folks see the whole game for what it is—crude, calculated, and a little too obvious.”
Twain would likely add a wink at the end, knowing full well that voters, like readers, prefer their tricks clever and their fools exposed.
Grook on Surprises
By Mark Twain (had he been inclined)
An October Surprise—oh, what a sight!
Thrown just before Election Night,
But lately, it’s earlier, September’s the key,
To slip in a trick with none left to flee.
They twist and they spin, the tales they unfold,
The stories get old, but still, they are bold.
A foreign guest here, a promise or two,
Hoping the voters won’t see through the ruse.
But surprises, you see, when too early they land,
Turn slick politicians to sloppy and bland.
For truth’s a funny thing in the light of the day,
It laughs at the schemes and brushes them away.
So the lesson is clear, in this forest of games—
When tricksters arrive, they’ll soon know the names,
Of those who were patient and saw through the blur,
For schemes laid too early just start to stir.
Moral:
Surprises before the final bell
Often crack before they sell.
Hey Kamala, Chuckie, Hakeem, Nancy, MSM, here’s a November Surprise for you. YOU LOST!!!
Why? Because millions of simple little people like myself, regular Americans, voted for the President of the Century, Donald J Trump. How could this happen, you ask? Well, we simply asked ourselves…were we better off 4 years ago when Trump was president?. We answered with an ear piercing YES!!! Then we thought, have we personally been harmed or has our wonderful and once Great America been harmed by any of the crimes of which Trump has been accused by a weaponized DOJ, biased NY and Georgia legal hacks? Do we see any of the guilty verdicts achieved by kangaroo courts against him making our world a more just place?
Nope, we do not, nor has our country been injured in any way by Donald J Trump. We have only been injured by a once somewhat respectable Democratic party turning America into a laughingstock of a country through their attempts to bring about these unfounded and ridiculous charges AGAINST A FORMER pRESIDENT AND CURRENT POLITICAL OPPONENT purely for political gain. These actions have been promulgated by a now Evil Democratic Party and their assistants in crime against ordinary American people. Vote MAGA! Save America!!!
Democrats have perfected wack-a-mole election interference strategy. Other than trying to ensure voter identity and ballot chain of custody, there is virtually nothing else that can be done to save the process of elections.
In the event that the Democrats interfere with an election, I’m not aware of any way to reverse the results that’s prescribed in the Constitution. This is going to be a big problem in the near future.