Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
Critics of Trump’s second-term foreign policy—the usual Left and some on the neo-isolationist Right—claim it is recklessly herky jerky and guided by no consistent grand strategy.
Yet, in both the first Trump administration’s National Security Strategy paper and its second-term update, he clearly disdained ground wars abroad, nation-building, and isolationism.
A better description of U.S. strategy across Trump’s two terms in office might be called Jacksonian or preemptive deterrence.
That is, Trump’s foreign policy neither ignores nor merely reacts to crises.
Instead, it seeks out favorable cost-benefit scenarios to weaken its strategic enemies and bolster its friends.
The aim is to preclude the outbreak of major wars of the sort that were common during the Obama and Biden years.
Those two administrations projected indifference abroad and anemic deterrence. As a result, four major theater conflicts broke out during their tenures: the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, the 2014 absorption of much of the Donbas, the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the 2024–25 Middle East theater war.
Some telling first-term examples of the Trump grand strategy were the lethal strikes on Iranian general and terrorist mastermind Qasem Soleimani and ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The 2018 demolition of a Wagner Group force in Syria and the 2018–19 bombing of ISIS into irrelevance also restored a deterrent U.S. presence in the Middle East.
Trump’s first-term warnings to China and Russia, respectively, not to move on Taiwan or invade Ukraine, were effective—as were ultimatums to North Korea to cease its reckless missile launches.
However, the ensuing Biden administration’s skedaddle from Afghanistan, its mixed prewar signals to Putin, and the pathetic efforts to reenter the Iran deal and to put distance between Israel and the U.S. all collapsed prior U.S. deterrence, ensuring the outbreak of major wars.
Biden’s own cognitive decline and his policies of open borders, therapeutic woke/DEI Pentagon initiatives, and uncertainty over who was in charge of U.S. foreign policy also confirmed an image of an America adrift at home and abroad.
Trump’s second-term strategy has focused on diminishing the power and influence of China, weakening Russia while offering it an eventual out by détente/reset with the West, and neutering Chinese–Russian terrorist client states.
Compare the following:
- Trump’s confrontation with Panama about its de facto violations of the spirit and the law of the Panama Canal Treaty eroded China’s effort to absorb or control the canal.
- In Venezuela, the removal of the Maduro Marxist government and the restoration of the Monroe Doctrine restored U.S. predominance in the Western Hemisphere—again, at the expense of China.
- Closing the U.S. southern border, stern warnings to the Mexican government, and efforts to stop Chinese shipments of raw fentanyl to the cartels have likewise damaged China’s Western Hemisphere efforts.
- The diminution of the Iranian nuclear threat, and perhaps soon even the theocracy itself, with the end of the Assad regime in Syria—both terrorist states supported and aided by North Korea, Russia, and China—also restored American preeminence in the Middle East.
- Record U.S. oil and gas production lowered world prices at the expense of Russia and the Middle East. Interrupting embargoed oil shipments from Venezuela and Iran has weakened Chinese influence and nearly strangled Cuba.
- Passive-aggressive, tough-love talk with NATO members encouraged (or enraged) Europeans to raise their NATO spending targets from 2 to 5 percent and expand the alliance with strategically valuable members like Finland and Sweden. Trump’s appeal to Europe’s self-interest (and its innate anti-American chauvinism) helps the region rearm and deter Russia, while freeing up U.S. assets for an increased Western profile in Asia and the Pacific.
- Efforts to strangle the Cuban and Iranian governments will starve their respective anti-Western surrogates and their own terrorist efforts in Latin America and the Middle East—once more to China’s chagrin.
- Pivoting the defense budget toward both weapon quantity and quality, prioritizing battlefield efficacy over social agendas, and expanding the number of defense contractors will increase American lethality.
- Quietly continuing aid to Ukraine to ensure it does not lose the war, while appealing to Putin that it is in his self-interest to cut his catastrophic losses, could restore Russian triangulation with the West vis-à-vis China.
- The Trump domestic economic, social, and cultural counterrevolution has encouraged the spread of conservative, pro-American governance in South America, Japan, and soon Europe as well—with negative consequences to China.
The media has fixated on Trump’s tariffs and his provocative tweets. Meanwhile, he and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have already done more to hinder China and its terrorist clients and proxies than any administration in memory.
Perhaps true from an imperialist perspective. But if respect for national sovereignty, the promotion of democracy, and the furthering of peace is desirable you would throw out Victor’s ideas, for they are an outmoded way of thinking, incredibly naïve and dangerous. Let me note this man has a PhD in the classics/antiquity. He is neither an economist, a political scientist or a historian. He appears to be a journeyman academic who has never found a permanent home at a top university.
With all due respect, it is astounding to see so many comments by people, who I take to be patriotic, in support of Trump. American patriotism rests on protecting the fundamental freedoms we all well know. But under Trump we’ve had significant incursions against freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, a lack of respect for due process and the rule of law. He’s used the office to punish those who dare disagree with him, much like dictactorships punishing political dissidents. He has disdain for democratic processes and is increasingly autocratic. To state the obvious, the United States is significantly less democratic than it was before Trump and his actions can properly be labeled as anti-American, that is, if you believe in the basic ideals upon which this country was founded. I respectfully ask commentors to pause and reflect. You cannot be both a Trump supporter and pro-America at the same time. It is contradictory.
“Is there a Trump ‘Great Game’?” Well, there is one now.
Great to have you back! Love the lists of Trump’s accomplishments. Facts for persuasion.
Can you comment on where England factors into this game of Risk. I have been reading disturbing news that they are not our friends … at all!
If strategic competition defines this era, then Canada is dangerously unserious. We miss NATO targets year after year, restrict our own energy capacity while others weaponize theirs, and hesitate in trade negotiations that shape continental leverage. Sovereignty isn’t maintained by rhetoric — it’s maintained by power, production, and credible commitments. At present, Canada projects none of the three.
Victor, Thanks for your erudite article on the current issues. Much needed clarity. Heal up fast! You’re in my thoughts and prayers.
As my mother would say, “Old age ain’t for sissy’s” What a health struggle you have endured, and persevered through over your journeys, across this life, and world. I along with many others are glad to see you are on the mend, getting better with each post, and we all welcome the continued publishing of your learned thoughts!
Thank you!
God speed Victor
Domestic political pundants bemoan Trump’s focus on strategic foreign policy victories, but this is exactly what I voted for. VDH’s list of important accomplishments should be more persuasive than they apparently are. If voters want to focus on kitchen table issues they should applaud a strong, respected and secure America as the prerequisite for the prosperity they yearn for.
Professor Hanson,
So grateful that you can still devote your energies to illuminating issues that, in our popular discourse, are drowning in ignorance and stupidities. We pray for you.
I would submit that the Trump administration is preparing the geo-strategic “battlefield” in preparation for a multipolar world and renewed Great Power competition with China and/or Russia. We are pushing Chinese influence out our own hemisphere in Panama, Venezuela, Central America, and Argentina. Attempting to eliminate points of strategic vulnerability that could be used to distract and occupy us from the main confrontation, like Iran and Ukraine. And eliminating economic vulnerability by revitalizing and reindustrializing our economy. It seems to me that the administration is “ticking one box off after another” to clear the field in preparation for the main event (how many metaphors mixed in that sentence?!].
China, too, looks to be preparing for conflict — internal purges of the PLA, stockpiling critical materials and oil, large purchases of gold, etc. We are mistaken if we view any of the issues vexing us — Iran, immigration, fentanyl, unlicensed Chinese bio-labs in Fresno and Las Vegas, Belt and Road in the Western Hemisphere, Chinese control of global rare earth and critical minerals resources, etc. — as being isolated issues, outside and independent of the Great Power competition that is upon us.
Victor I hope you are healing well. As usual, your analysis is brilliant and insightful. Back when Trump first announced his candidacy I was a total skeptic but like so many others I changed my mind. Since 2016 your articles and podcasts have helped assure me that I was wise to ultimately back Trump. I look forward to future content from you. ο Θεός να σε ευλογεί
I think point 8 misses the boat. The Ukraine war’s use of drones has shown that Trump’s idea of a super aircraft carrier is a mistake.
VDH…you are a national treasure. Best!
Continued prayers for you, Dr VDH. Long time follower of your writings/podcast/etc and purchaser of your excellent books. Very relieved to see you back in the saddle and looking so well. Your clear articulation of the Trump strategy and modus operandi is well taken. A breath of fresh air for those of us who have come to cherish your sound wisdom and deep knowledge of military/political strategy & history. Having lived for over 40 years in the Levant and Persian Gulf area, I strongly concur that the Trump Doctrine has blown new life into American foreign policy. Since the end of the Cold War, the US State Department and then Dept of Defense had calcified and ossified in terms of original thinking in a new paradigm. ( Former President Obama’s strategy of ‘Leading from behind.’ was basically no strategy.). You pointed all that out in your excellent book, The Case for Trump. Bless you for your continued contributions to our knowledge and may God return you to full good health.
Now we need focus on domestic accountability. Trump promised it. If some isn’t delivered MAGA is doomed. The nitwits running things are still overspent by $2 T a year. That is certifiably insane. DOJ is a sham and a disgrace. Judges still run everything. Some of this needs a reset. Very, very quickly.
Happy to see you back at the keyboard sharing insights and information. With Trump, there is always a ‘reason’ and while I am not a chess player, it appears to me that is the game he plays in his negotiations with other countries. Thank you, Victor, for this clear look at what is happening.
Happy to see you back at the keyboard sharing insights and information. With Trump, there is always a ‘reason’ and while I am not a chess player, it appears to me that is the game he plays in his negotiations with other countries. Thank you, Victor, for this clear look at what is happening. Welcome back!
Thank you Victor! You have always been a clear thinker. Your article here shows that nothing has changed! Sometimes situations arise that help us to refocus on what is really happening around us allowing us to bring clarity to troublesome issues. Your key points in this article are crystal clear.
Great to have you back, on the mends and back to work. Enjoy your column. Keep up the good work.
Glad you have gotten some better Victor. As always you are spot on! Thanks for your posts. ❤️❤️❤️🙏🏼🙏🏼
Dear VDH, I have been keeping you in my thoughts and prayers for your continued recovery. We all need your clear eyed analysis now more than ever. I believe the president will be successful in renewing the country and your piece lays it out in black and white.
Victor delighted to have you back. Thank God you’re safe and pray you remain in good health and spirits.
You made salient points here on trump strategy and how effective it has been so far. I hope they win the midterms and keep the trifecta so trump agenda doesn’t stall.
In the ‘olden days’, the opposition would oppose the ruling party by critiquing policy and positing an alternative policy (or approach). There was never a question of whether or not the opposition was still supporting the Republic. Currently, the opposition is behaving like it is the enemy and is no longer supporting the Republic. I’m at wits end on how to proceed in ways that our Founding Fathers had envisioned.
Mr Biden’s cognitive decline, clear before he was elected, makes me think he was irrelevant to the policies. Someone, some group, was directing things.
I wish you were my next door neighbor. Talking over the back fence wold be a graduate school education!
Welcome back Victor, glad you’re OK.
VDH, glad to have you back and best wishes for continued recovery.
Your column, while not completely excoriating Obama and Biden (they certainly deserve it), is factual and comprehensive on the Trump presidencies in terms of EFFECTIVE foreign policy as opposed to the FECKLESS policies of Obama and Biden.
Trump’s policies will have positive effects for decades to come. Let’s hope for even more positive outcomes in the years ahead.
As a Canadian I keep wondering why Mr. Trump favoured the election of Liberal Mark Carney over that of Conservative Pierre Poilièvre…..
As we confront Trump haters online it’s useful to have more ammunition in our favor that we can use in an argument. Thank you, Professor Hanson for bringing these bits together and helping define what is right and good about the President. As the crazy left continues to come out in force, thanks for your help reminding and defining, we’re better prepared and more confident.
Rick,
I’m also your age and played a lot of hockey with Canadians through college & overseas. They’re great people, no doubt, but they’ve not been carrying their weight in terms of NATO & national defense in general. Clearly, they should raise their NATO spending to 5% of GDP and reduce their trade surplus with us by half in opening up their markets to U.S. goods & services.
Otherwise, I agree with everything you say about Trump’s dealings with Canada, where his unnecessary rhetoric is so damaging of relationships on many levels; at times, he seems to be his own worse enemy.
In the end, I don’t know how the Canadians expect to defend the 2nd largest country in the world with 41+ million in population, 90% of them living on our border feeding off our economy.
Never thought i would consider anyone in the same league as RWR but DJT is fast approaching.
VDH –
Ten very notable points that DJT should “trump up” for the midterm elections. I agree with Harry that Marco Rubio is my guy for 2028. As a first generation American with German heritage, I especially appreciated Marco’s Munich Security Conference speech when he said that the Germans are credited for the Midwest farming/agricultural industry and improved the process for brewing American beer.
Delighted to see you back creatively sharing your ideas again; I know some of your challenges as we are the same age. That said:
“Instead, it seeks out favorable cost-benefit scenarios to weaken its strategic enemies and bolster its friends.”
Does that include Canada – our neighbor a few miles away, whose troops were beside me and others every single day of our war in Afghanistan? As they were in our prior Gulf War?
How did Trump further American interests by interfering in their election by threatening invasion/annexation to rescue the Canadian Liberals who were about to lose so badly they were expected to even lose official party status?
We now have a Canada run not by the expected conservative leader, an economist more conservative than Trump, but instead by an internationl bankster and Marxist, Carney. Instead of another Reagan-Mulroney partnership, we have a Canada run by a far smarter Marxist and globalist than Trudeau ever was.
In four short years we have gone from President Trump crowing he had the best trade deal ever with Canada, to Trump v2.0 saying Canadians are ripping us off and hid from all the fighting in Afghanistan – never doing anything for us. While he hammers them with greater penalties than the ChiComs.
If 9/11 happened tomorrow, do you believe his policies and comments directed at Canadians on the eve of a national election and insults would result in the Canada of today being just as eager to fight beside us as they did after 9/11? I don’t.
Dr. Hanson may have been out of contact, but not out of touch. Another well-presented statement of the facts as they are and not the incoherence the media projects. Thank you, Dr. Hanson and God-speed with your recovery.
Delighted to have you back.
All this sounds very good. But unless and until the U.S. actually engages in warfare to bring down the Iranian regime I am holding my breath. You can’t make a deal on unfounded trust.
Welcome back and thankfully you will remain healthy. Your common sense from the San Joaquin Valley is much needed in our country. As a person of very similar age (74) from Fresno and in Santa Cruz since ‘64 it’s encouraging to see how you can express the middle class thoughts in an organized, structured manner. We were lucky enough to see you at the Reagan Library when promoting your Trump book, very witty evening and the place was packed. If you ever go back or have other venues in California please let us fans know. Your historical books are all great reads, along with all your recent books. Good luck and you’re a blessing to the country. Wish you were on Trumps advisory group.
Rubio is starting to look like a strong potential candidate as a successor in 2028, though I imagine that election will be a hard fought one.
Thank you, Mr Hanson. Your wisdom is much needed. May our Father in heaven continue to bless you as you bless others.
Good to have you back. Very pleased that you’re getting on top of your health issues. It’s just hell getting older. Not for the faint of heart.
As for the column, spot on. Trumps super power is the ability to be grossly underestimated. Then like magic, wielding the biggest stick no one has ever seen. Modern day strength projection. Very effective. Unlike useless/endless diplomatic efforts.
Only wish that the President’s cohesiveness in foreign policy was matched by his seemingly erratic (and at times, baffling) use of tariffs…