Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
The short answer to why both the Biden and Obama administrations failed to achieve peace in the Middle East is that they took actions opposite to Trump’s current efforts, which have led to a ceasefire.
First, consider Iran.
Iran was flush with cash, on a trajectory toward a nuclear weapon, and arming Israel’s “ring of fire” enemies: Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
The radical Islamic world of the Middle East was convinced that Israel would be doomed eventually.
Yet both Democratic administrations let Iran profit from oil sales.
They talked of delaying, but not ending, Iran’s nuclear program. And they feared that Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis were indomitable terrorist threats.
Thus, the disruptors of peace were appeased rather than deterred.
Two, both Obama and Biden pressured Israel in general and Netanyahu in particular to make constant concessions.
But neither offered any plan for how Israel was to survive when Iran sought its destruction, and Tehran’s terrorist triad aimed to bombard it with missiles, rockets, and drones.
Worse, once the larger Middle East saw Democratic presidents appeasing Iran and its terrorist appendages, they concluded it was unsafe to take risks by allying with a delusional United States.
Three, both Obama and Biden despised and personally insulted Benjamin Netanyahu, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and the Saudi royal family.
Biden called Saudi Arabia a “pariah state”—at least until he needed it to pump more oil to lower gas prices before the 2022 midterms.
Both presidents sought to isolate Sisi and remove him from power.
Obama had his team leak insults to Netanyahu, most infamously the “chicken sh—t” smear.
Middle Easterners have long memories.
Obama never would have thought up the Abraham Accords. Biden foolishly derailed and then pathetically tried to resurrect them.
Neither the Gulf monarchies, Egypt, nor any conservative government in Israel had any incentive to deal with Obama and Biden, whom they despised.
Yet the more Trump respected and engaged with the Gulf sheikhs, Sisi, and Netanyahu, the more their collective fortunes—and his influence over their nations—increased.
Four, the Obama and Biden administrations were reluctant to use force to curb terrorism in the Middle East.
Neither would ever have taken out Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and the ISIS founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, destroyed ISIS, obliterated much of Russia’s Wagner group, or hit the Houthis hard.
The result was that neither the Israelis nor the Arabs trusted Obama and Biden. So they were careful not to take risks, fearing the U.S. would leave them hanging.
Five, on the global stage, both Democratic administrations had radiated a general sense of appeasement and indecision that empowered enemies and scared off friends.
The Middle East remembered the 2011 Libyan bombing misadventure and John Kerry’s pathetic 2013 courting of Russian help in the Middle East.
It recalled the 2014 Russian takeover of Crimea and Donbass, the 2016 appeasement of Iran to cut a nuclear deal, and the 2021 Chinese dressing down of Biden diplomats in Anchorage.
It was shocked by the 2021 humiliating skedaddle from Afghanistan, the 2022 Russian assault on Kyiv, and the 2023 Chinese balloon fiasco.
The Middle East concluded that America was in managed decline. It could not or would not defend its own interests, much less those of its expendable friends.
Six, Obama—and especially Biden—were constrained by their domestic bases in a way Trump was not.
The pro-Hamas, anti-Israel left deterred Democratic presidents from taking risks. In contrast, Trump withstood MAGA fury about bombing Iran or allowing Netanyahu to destroy most of Hamas.
Seven, the Democrats talked diplomatese. They looked down on mercantilism—and so never connected with either the Arabs or Israelis.
Trump equated a peace deal with prosperity. He promised that almost all interests would profit mutually.
For negotiations, he preferred businessmen—himself, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff—to diplomats.
It turned out that the Arabs and Israelis did as well.
Eight, Obama and Biden were infamous for their empty threats. Few ever believed Obama’s 2012 “redlines” issued to Syria on WMD.
No one took seriously Biden’s 2022 threat of “don’t” when Russia was on the verge of invading Ukraine.
In contrast, Trump’s threats were all too real.
Nine, past American administrations were frustrated with a duplicitous Qatar. And so they appeased it. Trump offered both carrots and sticks. After Israel bombed Qatar, the regime sought Trump’s support, shaken and ready to help.
Ten, the Obama and Biden teams—Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Susan Rice, Leon Panetta, Jake Sullivan, Antony Blinken, and Lloyd Austin—were force multipliers of their presidents’ naïveté and incompetence.
By contrast, Sen. Marco Rubio, Gens. Erik Kurilla and Dan Caine, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner shaped, shared, and empowered Trump’s agenda.