Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
The presidential race was not unpredictable, as the now once again discredited polls swore to us.
Instead, the great Trump comeback victory was clear by the last weeks of the campaign.
The Republicans had made massive gains in voter registrations since 2020, when Trump had lost the Electoral College by only a few thousand strategically placed votes.
Republicans began to master the transition to non-Election Day balloting—first engineered by the left in 2020 under the pretext of COVID.
They not only vastly exceeded their early/mail-in voting totals of 2020, but by Election Day, they often outpaced Democrats.
For months, it was widely reported, albeit grudgingly, that there were large defections in Hispanic and African American voters from Harris.
The betting odds over the last three weeks usually favored Trump.
Harris simply could not run on anything she had so emphatically promoted in the past—given these left-wing, unpopular, and failed policies had no majority support.
So, the chameleon Harris renounced her prior 30 years of earlier radical advocacies that, along with her race and gender, had forced Joe Biden in 2020 to select her as vice president.
There was no way Harris could still support banning fracking, defunding police, opposing border security and the wall, or calling for mass amnesties and an end to the border patrol.
Nor could Harris still promote racial reparations, ending private health care insurance, or advocating for higher income and capital gains taxes and a wealth tax.
Much less could Harris still boast of wanting mandatory “buyback” or confiscation of some semi-automatic weapons—including entering private homes to seize them.
So given all that, Harris simply flipped—and serially lied about who she was, renouncing her entire political career.
Indeed, Harris began to copycat Trump’s own positions. And so, she never convinced the electorate that she would not flip back to her earlier radicalism once elected or even in defeat finishing out her vice presidential term.
There were three damning realities that even if Harris had been a gifted politician and an adept speaker, she could never have changed.
One, Harris was preposterously running as a turn-the-page, new-generation candidate.
But why had she not sought to implement such a “new chapter” for the prior 45 months as an incumbent vice president, especially while in office during the campaign itself?
Voters knew the answer: the entire Biden-Harris tenure was a far left-wing utter disaster, one for which the radical Harris 1.0 had for three-plus years claimed co-ownership.
Two, why did Harris avoid all impromptu interviews and the media for most of the campaign—only to reverse course and seek out reporters when her polls eroded?
Did it hurt Harris more to avoid the media—or meet with them and thus confirm her inanity to millions of viewers and listeners?
Three, why did Harris serially lie to America that Joe Biden was hale and vigorous—until hours before his senility prompted leftist donors and party insiders to force him off the ticket?
And why could she not declare her independence from the historically unpopular Biden?
Harris instead chose to terrify voters to vote against a demonized and “fascist” Trump rather than to vote for Harris and her make-believe agendas.
But even in demonizing Trump, the maladroit Harris hit a wall.
By campaign’s end, Trump’s favorables were often higher than her own.
His prior four years as president polled higher than the current Biden-Harris train wreck.
Trump, the purported “racist,” won more Hispanic and black voters than past “moderate” Republicans like Bob Dole, John McCain or Mitt Romney.
It was hard to damn Trump as a crazy fascist when iconic liberal figures, like Robert Kennedy or Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, were campaigning for him.
Trump had reinvented the Republican Party by substituting ecumenical, middle-class solidarity for polarizing racial tribalism. Elitist Democrats were left to cater to the interests of their well-off and very rich donors as well as the subsidized poor.
Finally, workaholic Donald Trump campaigned nonstop for two years, won all the primaries, and was endorsed by his two chief primary rivals.
In contrast, the Harris “nomination” was the product of a coup that, in 48 hours, removed from the ticket an incumbent president, nullified the will of his 14 million primary voters, and coronated Harris, who had neither won nor ever entered a primary.
That late July forced abdication of Biden lent an air of illegitimacy to Harris’s candidacy, as well as truncating the time available to campaign.
Finally, Harris’s first major decision was to nominate as her vice president the buffoonish and inept Tim Walz. His radicalism, serial lying, and herky-jerky “weirdness” proved a force multiplier of her own mediocrity.
In contrast, the calm, empathetic, and astute J.D. Vance eviscerated Walz in their sole debate and did the same to the media.
Add it all up—and Harris and her star-crossed candidacy were simply and rightly doomed.
Thank you Victor for all that you’ve done to protect America and its citizens from the destructive policies of the deranged democratic left. You are the modern day equivalent to the ultimate Patriot (in my opinion) Dr. Joseph Warren. Dr. Warren did not hide when confronted with the sacrifices he would have to make and neither did you! Thank you for your courage.
Thank you for bringing up Dr. Warren
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Warren
…..Had Dr. Joseph Warren not been killed at Bunker Hill he would likely have been the Commander in Chief of the Continental Army and Washington would have served under him.
I hope you get to have a pint at the Warren Tavern in Charlestown, Boston. It’s the oldest pub in Massachusetts.
https://www.warrentavern.com/
Thank you Mr. Hanson, and thank you Tyrus……two pillars of strength in a turbulent world.
Fine, Victor, but the propaganda media machine, which greatly influences the way people think, were relentless in condemning Trump – and still do for that matter. This cultural war isn’t over by any means, and the Trump people know it. They’re not so triumphant in victory, as in 2016; the lawfare continues with some of these bogus cases, and the liberal media & Democrat Party have assumed a less-than-quiet resistance stance in full public view. There is no concession; the cultural war goes on.
Donald Trump was almost assisinated, of course he is more subdued.
Who wouldn’t be when a bullet nicks the ear so close to the the brain. A innocent man was killed that day and 2 others badly hurt.
Trump is a different man, forever changed.
He is more humble and wise and will be the better man for it.
You make good points about the continued efforts to stop or at least marginalize Trump and his programes. Someone I read suggested that an early release of treasonous formerly classified information, unveiling to the public the full extent of behind the scenes skullduggery, would set most if not all of Trump’s enemies back on their heels and disarm their weapons. They need to be overwhelmed and knocked off balance like what just happened in the election.
That release of information would be great, the Twitter Files effect.
Thanks for your helpful reminders that it is just one engagement in a long process. Trump’s first term was filled with subversion which hasn’t changed. The Trump team is more experienced now and will need to be preventative, vigilant and skillful. Physical security for the president and his staff will need to be enhanced as well.
And Kamala actually said the fight would go on. We need to wake more of the indoctrinated that don’t see what is right in front of their eyes. A lot of my family are in that category. It’s impossible to talk to them.
In my experience, it’s a gradual process of de-programming. When Victor calmly points out the asymmetry of situations, it does help on a cumulative basis. I’d like to say better days ahead, but concerned about Trump’s very life.
Victor – Thank you for your insights as they help explain the election. Also, thank you for your diligent reporting all this time.
Some states seem impervious to the factors that affected the rest of the country, so I am relieved and grateful that others saw the election differently.
Winning by a few people per hundred still makes the election very close and because of this, we as a country have much work to be done. People need good information which is hard to come by because of our educational system and media.
The next two to four years will hopefully be a productive time for our country. It should prove to be somewhat of a reprieve from the insanity of our culture and government.
Thanks be to God who has been merciful to our country and has given us time to seek him.
AMEN!!!!!
But, but, but ……aren’t you forgetting all the “joy” she had on her side?
.
Thank you and all the other independent voices here and abroad who have kept me informed and sane in my blue home bubble. I surprised my family via zoom as to my vote just before joining Rescue the Republic to hear Taibbi speak on Free Speech. Later a friend whose satirical art is not for the karens exclaimed when I said I was voting for The First Amendment. “Are you a Libertarian.” And you’re not, Mr. Foolish?
Now we just need to make the country sane again. Forget dei, gender fluidity, lgbtq+, gender affirming care that should be illegal by any account. Fixing the border can be done in under a year, but moving illegals out can be done slowly with catch and remove. Countries in South America are on notice.
Nicely sums it up.
Dr. Hanson, So once again we have arrived at tomorrow and are about to enter the swamp, to drain it, till it, plant and cultivate for what might prove to be a better field of realized dreams. DC was built from swamp land and the work starts. Already, the workers are gathering to get ‘er done.
Ted in Milwaukee
As long as 40+ % of American legal voters still don’t get it, we have more work to do.
Victor, I’m an avid reader of your takes on all things political. Your clear, incisive analysis is always a delight. Thank you for being the voice of rationality and balance.
agreed, kevin
As usual, Dr Hanson, your comments have been prescient and post-election, insightful. One thing confuses me. With the increase in Republican voter registration and the lopsided enthusiasm present for the Trump ticket, why were total voting numbers down for each party? Trump won with over 71 million votes but received over 74 million in 2020. Harris received over 66 million votes, but in 2020, Biden received more than 81 million. That is quite a drop in total voter participation. Would you care to comment?
Dear Dr. Hanson:
The leftist (media and politicians) are now claiming that the outcome is predictably due to all of the -ists and -isms as always. They are actually saying out loud that the defeat had nothing to do with policy or the fact that they themselves offended millions of formerly democrat voters. There is some begrudging admission that installing a candidate without a primary was bad. That wont last long. It is all rapidly becoming an exercise in rebranding the same old stuff that the voters have rejected. That is not surprising since rebranding is much less work that thinking through new policies and then convincing voters to vote for them. This will feed right in to the new rebranded racist narrative to fight any upcoming deportations. They wont even be able to abide the deportations of proven and convicted criminals. They actually got away with installing a president through half of the system and most rank and file democrats allowed it without protest. Thankfully enough voters stopped it!
Pelosi, Obama, Sanders, Sawyer, Clinton, etc will pretty much age out and be background players over the next several years. A growing Hispanic community with their rapidly growing educated and maturing population, and theirincreased Hispanic support for the Republicans, suggest that those who remain Democrats and who step into leadership within their party, may change the Dems in a more sensible direction. Certainly Democratic policies often harm the very people they purport to help and like their white blue collar counterparts, they’ve become fed up with it.
if AOC is anything to go by, then I kind of doubt it. at least not in the timescale you predicted.
Lawfare and censorship were contributing factors to Harris’s demise. “Justice and free speech for me but not for thee” got everyone’s attention and they resoundingly voted “hell no”!
Game…set…match
We have Game and Set.
Keeping the House = Match.
My better half became the chair of the local Republican Town Committee this past summer.During the fall, I was asked to speak and expected between 5-6 participants; the room overflowed with 55 victors; it only got better; the next meeting counted 71; a joint meeting with three other communities ended up counting more than 500 attendees when we expected 200. In a traditionally blue state [MA], Trump lost our county by only 31 votes. I don’t think we cold have asked for better.
Thanks for all your service. Keep up the good work!
Congratulations on your “growth”. I always say our state is so far left, we’ll be falling off into the ocean. I do hope 47 will have better luck this time getting past the in-fighting, and a good candidate will come out of this administration for the next presidential election. I at least now see some younger candidates on the horizon.
Another clear-eyed analysis of our electoral choices, Victor. Thank you.
A few comments;
Kamala Harris could not declare independence from the Biden debacle. You know mean ol’ Joe would have publicly declared she was a willing and enthusiastic partner.
She avoided impromptu media questions out of necessity. She couldn’t speak honestly about her “values (that) haven’t changed” since they were far out of step with mainstream Americans. She only caved to questions out of desperation near the end, when it was clear her ship was sinking.
Trump scored with blacks and Latinos because he engaged with them on their turf, even when it was hostile (NABJ). That showed respect—far more than Obama’s scolding or Kamala’s appeal to identity.
Glad to see her strategy of offering bread (taxpayer-funded giveaways) and circuses (vapid celebrity endorsements) failed in this republic.
To all those voters in swing states, thank you for saving the USA
Long time fan Victor and God Bless America, Trump, his family and his administration going forward. The battle was won, now they need to win the war to bring America back to its former greatness. You are a ‘Diamond Among the Rock Pile’ when it comes to your intellect, skills and abilities to present all the objectivity we need to see through the political BS. Thanks and best wishes to you and your family for Thanksgiving and Christmas. MCGA….Make Christmas Great Again!!!
Thank you, Dr. Hanson. For the past four years, I pretty much tuned out the main stream media and relied on your thoughtful commentary. There seem to be very few journalists who are original thinkers and writers and who are not regurgitating Democrat propaganda.
The Blade of Perseus has been raised triumphantly as Trumps fist in Butler!
The current Medusa has been slain, hoisted upon her own blade of deception. Today is a day of victory for the working men and women of America, who WORK to make our country strong, the “little people” have had the courage and resolution to stand for what they believe in, and take action!
May we humbly wield this great trust, and pray for direction from a higher power to direct us in its application.
Thank you Mr. Hanson for your dedication, courage, and hard work in handling the Blade of Perseus!
A little Handyman,
Matthew
Victor as one of your comments suggests, let’s just make America sane again, I would like my own family sane again. I have been married for 55 years to the same beautiful woman, but since 2016 I have been living in a different world. I have 2 very successful sons, one a very successful surgeon, th other a Nurse, all have various degrees of TDS, my wife the worst. I did make a mistake a few days ago and forwarded an article you wrote recently to my son the surgeon, and sent a response about laughing to much to read it. Now he isn’t talking to me. I would hope things change for everyone. I will continue to live my conscience, and thank you for your incredible insight and thought provoking articles.
There may be a number of reasons for why this happens but from what I hear, the medical profession teaches a lot of DEI ideology during medical school and likely afterwards in the hospitals.
Keep watch for opportunities to have conversations. An emergency room physician has acknowledged to me that many of the patients that he sees speak only Spanish. This was a starting point for speaking with him about the costs of illegal immigration and he listened but didn’t say much.
Thanks for trying to give your family good information. May God bless you and your loved ones.
Some Dems are now wondering what happened to those ‘20 million voters’ that gave Biden the election in 2020….and if those voters had ‘turned up’ for the 2024 race, perhaps the result wold have been different. I hope they actually do some kind of research on this. Those 20 million voters were actually hidden under tables in ballot counting rooms with the likes of Ruby Freeman. Perhaps the Dems, and others, will finally understand that Trump actually did win the 2020 election.
No, they’re so foolish they still believe Biden received more votes than the 1st black President and the 1st potential black woman President. Too much to overcome this time is almost certainly the explanation as the former is absurd.
Exactly!
Thank you Victor for unburdening us for what has been. It took the passage of time for Big Red to have joy in the morning, as it was delicious!
Harris was and will be the most unaccomplished and least competent presidential candidate in history.
Trump frequently pushes hyperbole beyond its limits into the clearly untrue category for no good reason, e.g., claiming 25 million illegal immigrants have entered the USA in the last five years. I would think that a man with such obvious precise intelligence would not fall so completely for Trump. He did NOT make major inroads into the Black and Hispanic communities, which VDH repeats here. He made modest inroads. Trump’s undisciplined speech and over-confidence are major concerns for his second term. Let us hope that he appoints a much more savvy staff and cabinet this time around, not a crowd of sycophants!
Your middle name should be kill-joy. Or holyer than thou. Smugness does not become you.
Trump WON the male hispanic vote and got 15% of the male black vote.
He also won suburban women.
Here is irony: conservatives were concerned about the possibility of all the new illegals voting this year, but what happened is that the latino vote is what pushed him over the finish line, with room to spare.
Trump is a great salesman and certainly acts the part. Get used to it, George. This is what salespeople do. They are master influencers and persuaders.
Or would you prefer our “murderer’s row” of unexciting, phlegmatic and failed candidates that preceded him over the past 20 years?
Securing a large portion of the hispanic vote is what is driving the dems crazy. This is a growing constituency that we need to carefully and unambiguously court in the future. They will become the life-blood of the party. They work hard, cherish their families, and want those families to grow and prosper by following the rules.
Sounds like republicans to me. Or, at least, conservatives.
We dodged a bullet! VDH gives all the reasons we SHOULD have known Harris was doomed, and all the reasons that President Trump out-earned her at the ballot box…. but we didn’t know until the votes were counted. Unless History (via the populace) really plans to punish the Democrats for this behavior, we will see it again. Perhaps it’s already begun with Schumer pushing his “No Kings Act” intended to subject Trump to continuing law-fare harassment. I pray the VDH and now Tyrus and others and all of us will be staunch to build a new era out of Trump’s vision of honoring Labor and work.
In 2020 election we were shocked to go to bed at 11:30 with Trump handily ahead only to wake up to find that he lost. While thousands of ballots just showed up, we were left mesmerized.
So this 2024 election cycle we saw the same campaign from the basement. I was expecting another magical appearance of ballots. I guess so was Kamala!
The spell is broken and I am enjoying reading all the great commentary.
ThanksVDH for your weekly lifelines.
It isn’t over yet. A headline seen on Newsmax tonight: “The Democrats will do everything possible to thwart the Trump administration.” They obviously care only about control and one-party rule – their holy grail. THAT is pure authoritarianism.
Trump won the popular vote by 3%.
Here are the final predictions from some of the top polls for the 2024 election:
1. Rasmussen Reports: Predicted Trump leading by 3%.
2. Emerson College: Reported a tie, with Trump and Harris both at 49%.
3. New York Times/Siena College: Also reported a tie, each candidate receiving 48%.
4. IBD/TIPP: Showed Harris with a slight edge, but within a tight margin that suggested a close race.
5. FOX News Poll: Indicated a small lead for Harris.
6. Quinnipiac University: Slight lead for Harris, generally showing her with a 1-2 point advantage.
7. NBC News/Marist: Predicted Harris leading by about 2%.
8. Monmouth University: Showed Harris with a slim lead, close to within the margin of error.
9. SurveyUSA: Reported Harris with a slight advantage.
10. YouGov: Also leaned slightly toward Harris, with a lead of 1-2 points.
Based on this lineup, Rasmussen stood out as the most accurate — by far.
The other major polls generally leaned toward a tight race, with several slightly favoring Harris.
My assessment is that watching polls other than Rasmussen is a waste of your time. However, Trafalgar is also close in most cases.
Rasmussen was also accurate in the past two elections.
The rest of the polls are either trying to influence your vote or are caught up in “me too-ism”.
Victor, you are a great American. Thank you. Something I found very odd about this election is in the 2020 election Biden recieved 81 million votes. His campaign was during covid, but even so he had a few rallies, but mostly ran it out of his basement. The Dem machine pulled out a victory for Joe, who I doubt had superb faculties even 4 years ago (he was suffering mentally even then).
2004 Kerry – 59 million
2008 Obama – 69.5 million
2012 Obama – 65.9 million
2016 Clinton – 65.8 million
2020 Biden – 81.3 million
2024 Harris – 69 million
The mean of these results with the exception of Biden 2020 is 65.8million.
Joe Biden with his basement/legacy news campaign got 15.5 million more votes in 2020.
Are we supposed to believe this is all a result of mail-in ballots? How does this square up ?
Something smells fishy.
The statistics are stunning. Accorting to your data, Biden received almost 24% more votes than the average democrat candidate and 17% more than Harris!
I’m wondering why no coverage of fact that Harris received 13,000,000 less votes than Biden in 2020. While Trump received approx. the same in 2020 and 2024 election. Where did those 13 mil votes go? Perhaps more important, where did they come from in 2020.
Dr Hanson,
Sir, I am a retired US Marine. Your works have long motivated me.
You are truly the light of sanity and clear thought in the darkness.
Semper Fidelis and continued success to you Sir!
I’ve been roughing up the NR for their constant proclivity to take cheap shots against Trump, but Jack Fowler then defends them.
Victor, Sir, you’ve stated you position, and I agree 100%. … Jack might give the NRO Castrati a bit more stress than he has been.
Glad we won despite Rich Lowry’s de facto support of Harris.
IMO, the election results were certainly a perfect storm for the democrats – economy, demented party leader, border crises, child genital mutilation, etc. But the repulsion of Harris’s personaliy cannot be over valued in their loss. Harris won’t be the gift that keeps giving in 2028. A candidate that is actually likeable could have resulted in much different results given the same voter anger.
Now there will be this endless parade of ex Biden staffers who will get jobs in the MSM or continue the line of show talking heads outlining all the failures to come, of which there will be none; but someone has to try and scare the masses.
So glad I don’t watch the MSM.