Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
We can draw a few conclusions from an off-year election, when iconic races in blue states went, as expected, overwhelmingly Democratic.
Nevertheless, there is only a year left before the midterms. So Republicans must react to even these paltry results.
1) Democrats’ chaotic nihilism still works. The chaos strategy causes so much turmoil, noise, and negative media coverage that the confused voting public simply cannot sort it all out. The public wishes the upheaval would just go away and often blames those with the most current authority—logically, the incumbent Trump and his administration.
2) Every day of Trump’s first year, there were either campus eruptions, Tesla firebombings, street violence against ICE, or crazy district judges’ injunctions.
The bedlam becomes force multiplied by unhinged outbursts from Democrats like AOC, Jasmine Crockett, Eric Swalwell, and the proverbial Squad.
The latest firecracker was thrown by a now Biden-like, faltering Nancy Pelosi, who recently screamed on CNN that President Trump “is just a vile creature, the worst thing on the face of the Earth.”
The public has no time to sort out all the actual causes for such mad hattery. It knows only from Democrats that the commotion is roughly correlated with “Trump.”
Note that there is never a positive Democrat “Contract with America,” since it is impossible to advance anything popular or moderate past its now firmly socialist base.
3) Democrats also use the chaos strategy to target key electoral groups.
In this week’s election, Republicans finally grasped the purpose of the pre-election shutdown.
It was designed to galvanize key constituencies to get out the vote in a low-turnout year. The lockdown was especially aimed at two groups: laid-off and unpaid government workers and entitlement recipients terrified that their checks would dry up.
Both turned out disproportionately in Virginia and New Jersey.
The Democrats are likely to resolve the shutdown soon, as the initial momentum gained by paralyzing the government is now diminishing.
The same strategy applies to the Hispanic vote that had defected in large numbers to Trump in 2024. However, this week, in many counties, the Hispanic vote shifted back toward the Democratic Party.
The truth does not get out enough that 70-80 percent of deportations are targeted at those with either criminal records or prior deportation orders.
Instead, the nonstop violent protests, the dangerous nullification threats from blue-city officials, and the slanted media coverage worked like proverbial propaganda to reduce ICE to “the Gestapo.”
Too many of the public believed that “Nazis” were hounding only law-abiding housekeepers and landscapers, who have been here for decades and only by accident forgot to make their de facto Americanness official.
Or so the successful Big Lie went—and went unchallenged.
The administration and MAGA do not talk enough about positive news of GDP growth, tolerable inflation, massive foreign investment, a calmer Middle East, or numerous miraculous ceasefires around the globe.
Instead, when there is a vacuum in self-praise, it is more easily replaced by the sensationalism of Trump’s “revenge tour” in hounding the boy scout James Comey and poor Letitia James, of taking a wrecking ball to the revered White House, or of insulting for no reason our blameless, “nice,” and gentle Canadian neighbors. The economy not culs-de-sac win elections.
4) Much of the Trump agenda, other than spectacular military recruitment and a secure border, is more long-term than instantly gratifying.
The multitrillion-dollar foreign investments may take a year or two to create jobs and spark the economy.
The deportations will take time to switch more jobs to U.S. citizens.
New gas, oil, and nuclear energy production, trimming the federal workforce, deregulating, and greenlighting AI and other new technologies will not be felt immediately.
After the summer 1984 convention, even Ronald Reagan trailed the anemic Walter Mondale in a few polls. Then the first three quarters of GDP—cumulatively over 7% growth—were digested, as the economy took off and buried Mondale by the November elections.
5) There is no longer a Democrat Party. It is now an unapologetically neo-socialist Jacobin movement. So traditional negative advertising designed to incur scandal and shame simply does not always work. All that matters is the hard-leftist fides of a candidate—period!
Threaten a political opponent with assassination? Brag about killing his kids?
Tattoo the 3rd Panzer SS Division death’s-head insignia on your chest?
Promise to arrest a foreign head of state when he visits your city?
Boast about grabbing the “means of production.”
So what?
To the new left, this is just proof that their new candidates and voters “mean business.” They cannot be shamed—not even by mocking Charlie Kirk’s wound or hoping Trump is not so lucky a third time.
There is plenty of time for Republicans to digest these results, especially the strategy and dangerous nature of the new left, along with the mercurial moods of the swing voters—and the need to stick to the economy.
But the clock is ticking.
I have a subscription to The Blade of Perseus but do not seem to receive Victor’s two weekly podcasts on the Blade. Can someone please help me? I am 80 years old and not very tech savvy
Wise words Victor. I’m a Democrat turned Independent, leaning Republican and you’re a big reason why. Loved your book “ The Case For Trump” and look forward to the next update. Starting to get deeper into the classics and am listening to civics Great Courses programs.
Republicans need to grow a spine, get rid of the filibuster, pass the CR to open the government, and pass as much legislation as possible between now and the midterm elections to inoculate the nation against the inevitable Democrat tyranny once Democrats return to power. Unfortunately, too many Republicans believe it is still 1980 and the Democrats are a loyal opposition, and not the radical, Marxist, anti-American, anti-Western party that they have become.
Thune still hasn’t fired the Democrat Senate Parliamentarian who should have been fired on day one of the current session. Cruz was on television this week providing more excuses for Republican inaction. His constant whining about “but the filibuster,” “but we don’t have an overwhelming majority,” “but we don’t want to break norms like the blue slip for judicial approvals because Democrats will use them against us once back in power.” Cruz and the rest of these do-nothings need to wake up. The “norms” are gone. Stop playing the game according to Hoyle. Democrats are no longer “colleagues.” They are enemies who will destroy Republicans and America when they get the chance.
Always spot-on Dr. Hanson! Thank you for your keen insights… As an observational aside: It truly amazes me that all you hear from Progressives is how dangerous guns are and that they must be eliminated from society — and yet they wouldn’t think twice about using one against those they disagree with!!
The reality of your analysis, seems to me that it is imperative that the Republican senators follow President Trump’s leadership and end the filibuster. They are playing with fire in thinking that the modern Democratic Party will uphold it if the Chaos Strategy wins them the midterms.
Riots, protests, in-yer-face violence, and now assassination still pays off big for the left because it continues and escalates.
Their 50-year media campaign of “Democrats are caring and fair, while Republicans are mean racists” pays limitless dividends.
Very soon Scott Weiner will replace Pelosi, and fellow radicals will turn the country into a Mamdani-Squad hell-hole.
It’s time for the president to grow up ,swallow his ego and not react to every slight and mainstream insult. There were a lot of “Bedtime for Bonzo” jokes about Reagan before he was president, not so much after his election. Trump is still reacting to nobodies like Seth Meyers and Rosie O’Donnell. He never pauses to stop the Wrestlefication of America. While his instincts are correct in many cases his refusal to ever take a step back and reflect on how he himself can convey a positive outlook and message.
The Democrats have no message ,Mamdani is only a more transparent version of DeBlasio, and without the buffer of 20 years of great NYC leadership before him, he will fail. It’s time for Mr Trump to grow a thicker hide,and try toappeal to people who may not agree with him always
Young voters can’t put their cellphones down to actually know what is news and what is b.s. Republicans better figure out a way to reach and then teach this generation and the next.
The shutdown is 37 days old. SNAP beneficiaries are now feeling the pain as will Christmas air travelers if this drags on into December. Who will be blamed? If history is our guide, then it will be the Republicans. For some reason there’s an unwritten law that says the party for reduced government shall always be blamed for closing down the government. Should they then cave to Hakeem Jeffries, or abolish the filibuster? Both options are bad.
I find it utterly astonishing that after one year of losing a national election the minority party can legally throw a spanner into the works and completely neuter their opposition.
It makes you wonder what was the point of having an election.
The Republicans are both spineless and afraid to disengage themselves from everything that the Israeli lobbyists tells them to do or their funding gets cut off. They don’t believe or care that we are in a fight for western civilization or nationhood.
They really don’t mind getting their butts kicked.
Thank you, Victor, for your insightful commentary. Apparently, the prediction back in 1984 by KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov who described what he defined as the Russin goal of a great brainwashing of America has come to pass but would appreciate your thoughts.
As usual, prescient comments. In today’s news conference, following the announcements of reductions in prices for anti-obesity drugs with two drug mfrs, Trump beat the drum of how well our economy is doing. EVERYONE wearing our jersey needs to do likewise. Going after Comey, Brennan, et al, while absolutely appropriate, distracts from the bigger, more powerful message: It’s the economy, stupid !
VDH,
The results in New Jersey were not unexpected.
You see here in New Jersey mail in ballots rule.
The Democrats in New Jersey have mail in Ballots down to a science.
Democratic Counties in Jersey send out calendars for 2026 in August with mail in ballots included.
I voted on Election Day, no ID required. I asked- how do you know it’s me
without checking my ID- the ad hoc hire pointed
at her computer and said, “this tells me.”
I am still trying to figure that one out.
No one toots the Republican horns! No one knows about Trump’s many successes– the economy, world peace, the tariff incomes, job creation, investments in America, and more. RINO Republicans say nothing and of course, the LYING MSM will do everything to hide it, so most people who follow mainstream media don’t have a clue as to what President Trump has done. Those who don’t watch Fox or trusted internet sources have no idea of his many victories.
It is true that the voters in the blue states voted blue…
It is also true that this is a truly sad state of affairs, my view, as most of those voting blue have no clue about the folks they vote for and have no clue what they are voting for…
These days, Democrat “moderates” (a term that’s only rhetorical fig leaf; Dems who actually vote like moderates are about as extinct as the Passenger Pigeon) are in a quandry.
Mamdani’s victory and the momentum of the cadre which is riding on ideological coattails of the victories in CA, VA, and NJ only makes it much more unlikely that any moderates will have the resolve to oppose the party’s current leftward slide. Schumer was scared of the radicals before the shutdown. Now he is even more hesitant to displease them.
Victor has often talked about how it took Dems years after the McGovern and Carter fiascos to get around to moving to the Center to win presidential elections. The result’s of this week’s election validates the tactics of the past ten months in the eyes of the party’s core and will just encourage the Chaos wing to instigate more riots, protests, and shutdowns. It seems that it will take (another) electoral disaster before there is any hope that the Dems will reconsider their strategy.
I believe the Republicans are potentially in a world of hurt if they don’t start getting simple understandable messages out to the voters. For example, the government is shut down. Lots of blame and finger pointing going around. John Thune needs to call for a vote every day in the Senate on the continuing resolution to open the government. And every time the Democrats vote it down the Republicans need to buy a bunch of advertising saying this is the 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th, however many times the Democrats have done that.
A simple message that everyone can understand.
Has anyone noticed that in the wake of the Republicans’ election defeats, no assets of the left were defaced or burned as Teslas were following Trump’s 2024 victory; nor was anyone from the left assaulted or shot; nor was there any destruction of public or private property by Republicans?
It seems that to capture attention, one has to do objectionable, violent acts and that self control and forbearance are not noticed, perhaps because the latter are deliberate acts NOT to do anything.
We are living in curious times.
Thank you for the article. America needs our prayers. May God help us and cause many to turn to Jesus Christ. Our republic needs moral clarity – a clearly defined universal moral code. This is why Benjamin Rush wrote about the importance of the Bible. The Bible played a significant role in our founders’ understanding of right and wrong. Without the Bible’s guidance, our republic will waver in moral confusion. We are witnessing the impact of generational biblical ignorance. Bring back the Bible, and bring back moral clarity and truth. Bring back moral clarity and truth, and bring back the principles that made America Great. America’s greatest issue is its heart. Lies are heralded as truth and truth as lies. The moral confusion progresses because the answer isn’t in politics. It’s in God.
The main issue now is the ‘tariff issue’. If Trump cannot use tariffs via IEPPA (or another tariff law) to achieve his international and domestic goals, his second term is done and the Democrats will put their forks in it. Nobody cares about the Democrat and Republican blatherskite regarding issues that the USA is now facing. People are looking in their wallets and checking accounts to see if positive things are happening. But change occurs slowly. The same thing happened in Reagan’s first term. The poet Borges once wrote, “After a while you learn the subtle difference between holding a hand and chaining a soul, and you learn that loving doesn’t mean leaning and company doesn’t mean security. And you begin to learn that kisses aren’t contracts and presents aren’t promises. . . .with every goodbye you learn”. Young people have just not learned enough to vote Republican.
Victor,
Can you provide insight on what will happen to Wall Street as a result of Mamdani”s victory? Will investors simply cozy up to the mayor and do business that way. I suspect that there will still be many less imbedded investors who will or are fleeing NYC to places like Dallas which is a relatively healthy financial center.
I am thinking that the Dems are expecting the Republicans to cave by thanksgiving and as usual they probably will.
The Trump Admin bags about putting two Antifa on trial. Not enough. 200. 2000. Actions have consequences and the Left believes they will never be held accountable. The Trump Admin has so far confirmed that view.
We are witnessing a Bolshevik revolution American style and the Republicans are sitting around in their suits with the thumbs up their butts. The media blitz on social media sites like Facebook by the democrats with screams of a constant din of pro marxist anti capitalist anti freedom lies was staggering. But as well know, a lie told often enough becomes the truth. The election this week was proof. There was absolutely NO organized Republican counter attack. We are in a battle for our freedom and unfortunately, our army is the feckless and fatuous Republican Party. We are in deep trouble especially with the mid terms soon upon us. Even the truth or an economic recovery could not save us. I hope Trump has another trick up his sleeve.
Thanks to progressive education and constant exposure to media, voters’ minds are chaotic. Steadily, they become less able to tell truth from fiction or to have anything but gut reactions.
Chaos is a tactic, not a philosophy — and like all noise, it loses power once people stop mistaking it for music. The Left’s racket works only as long as voters still expect harmony. Fatigue turns fast in politics, and when it does, silence will sound like leadership.
In the end, they’re just a lot of meaningless bugs.
“Much of the Trump agenda, other than spectacular military recruitment and a secure border, is more long-term than instantly gratifying.”
Long-term is something adults appreciate and understand. Sadly, too many people in our society, and indeed, throughout the West, are immature, stuck at the emotional level of adolescents. Instant gratification is all they want, all they understand.
So the party that promises them everything they want, and confirms them when they blame everyone else but themselves for the results of their decisions, will get their vote every time.