Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
Trump was elected in part on promises to avoid “endless wars” of the sort that cost American blood and treasure in Afghanistan and Iraq but without resulting in strategic advantage or civilized calm.
Yet as a Jacksonian, Trump also restored American deterrence through punitive strikes against ISIS and terrorist thugs like Baghdadi and Soleimani—without being bogged down in costly follow-ups. During the last four administrations, Putin stayed within his borders only during the Trump four years.
But upon entering office, Trump will likely still be faced with something far more challenging as he confronts what has become the greatest European killing field since World War II—the cauldron on the Ukrainian border that has likely already cost 1-1.5 million combined dead, wounded, and missing Ukrainian and Russian soldiers and civilians.
There is no end in sight after three years of escalating violence. But there are increasing worries that strategically logical and morally defensible—but geopolitically dangerous—Ukrainian strikes on the Russian interior will nonetheless escalate and lead to a wider war among the world’s nuclear powers.
Many on the right wish for Trump to immediately cut off all aid to Ukraine for what they feel is an unwinnable war, even if that abrupt cessation would end any leverage with which to force Putin to negotiate.
They claim the war was instigated by a globalist left, serving as a proxy conflict waged to ruin Russia at the cost of Ukrainian soldiers. They see it orchestrated by a now non-democratic Ukrainian government, lacking elections, a free press, or opposition parties, led by an ungracious and corrupt Zelensky cadre that has allied with the American left in an election year.
In contrast, many on the left see Putin’s invasion and the right’s weariness with the costs of the conflict as the long-awaited global proof of the Trump-Russian “collusion” unicorn. Thus, after the 2016 collusion hoax and 2020 laptop disinformation ruse, they see in some of the right’s opposition to the war at last proof of the Russophiliac Trump perfidy. They judge Putin, not China’s imperialist juggernaut, as the real enemy and discount the dangers of a new Russia-China-Iran-North Korean axis. And to see Ukraine utterly defeat Russia, recover all of the Donbass and Crimea, and destroy the Putin dictatorship, they are willing again to feed the war to the last Ukrainian while discounting escalating Russian threats to use tactical nuclear weapons to prevent defeat.
Trump has vowed to end the catastrophe on day one by doing what is now taboo: calling Vladimir Putin and making a deal that would do the now impossible: entice Russia back to its February 24, 2022, borders before it invaded and thus preserve a reduced but still autonomous and secure Ukraine.
How could Trump pull that unlikely deal off?
Ostensibly, he would follow the advice of a growing number of Western diplomats, generals, scholars, and pundits who have reluctantly outlined a general plan to stop the slaughter.
But how could Putin reassure the Russian people of anything short of an absolute annexation of Ukraine after the cost of one million Russian casualties?
Perhaps in the deal, Putin could brag that he institutionalized forever his 2014 annexations of once Russian-speaking majority Donbass and Crimea; that he prevented Ukraine from joining NATO on the doorstep of Mother Russia; and that he achieved a strategic coup in aligning Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea in a new grand alliance against the West and particularly the United States, with the acquiescence if not support of NATO member Turkey and an ever more sympathetic India.
And what would Ukraine and the West gain from such a Trump art of the deal?
Kyiv might boast that, as the bulwark of Europe, Ukraine heroically saved the country from Russian annexation as envisioned in the 2022 attempt to decapitate Kyiv and absorb the entire country. Ukraine subsequently was armed by the West and fought effectively enough to stymie the Russian juggernaut, wound and humiliate the Russian military, and sow dissension within the vastly weakened Russian dictatorship, as evidenced by the assassinated would-be insurgent Prigozhin.
Trump then might pull off the agreement if he could further establish a DMZ between the Russian and Ukrainian borders and ensure European Union economic aid for a fully armed Ukraine that might deter an endlessly restless Russian neighbor.
It would admittedly be a shaky and questionable deal, given Putin’s propensity to break his word and insidiously and endlessly seek to reestablish the borders of the old Soviet Union.
How then would Trump pull such a grand bargain off, given the hatred shown him by the American left for “selling out Zelensky,” the likely furor from the MAGA base of giving even one cent more than the current $200 billion to Ukraine, and its “endless war,” and the ankle biting from the Europeans who would be relieved by the end of hostilities on its borders but loathe to give any credit to Trump, whom they detest?
What would be the incentives for any such deal, and would they be contrary to both the interests of the American people and the new Republican populist-nationalist coalition?
Yet consider that if Trump were to cut all support for Ukraine, the right would see Ukraine become shortly absorbed—and it would be blamed for a humiliation comparable to the Kabul catastrophe, only worse, since Ukraine, unlike the Afghanistan mess, required only American arms, not our lives.
In contrast, if the endless war grinds on and on, at some point, the pro-war and so-called humanitarian left will be permanently stamped as the callous party of unending conflict and utterly indifferent to the consumption of Ukrainian youth, spent to further its endless vendetta against a Russian people who also are worn out by the war.
Both Russia and Ukraine are running out of soldiers, with escalating casualties that will haunt them for decades. Russia yearns to be free of sanctions and to sell oil and gas to Europe. The West, and the U.S. in particular, would like to triangulate Russia against China and vice versa, in Kissingerian style, and thus avoid any two-power nuclear standoff.
America wants to increase and stockpile its munitions with an emboldened China on the horizon. It is dangerously exhausted by defense cuts and massive aid to Ukraine and Israel while preferring allies like Israel that can win with a few billion rather than perhaps lose after receiving $200 billion. The Republican Party is now becoming the party of peace, and Trump, the Jacksonian, nonetheless the most reluctant president to spend American blood and treasure abroad in memory.
Europe is mentally worn out by the war and increasingly reneging on its once boastful unqualified support for Ukraine. So, it hopes the demonized Trump can both end the hated war and then be blamed for ending it without an unconditional Ukrainian victory.
In short, there are lots of parties who want, and lots of incentives for, an end to our 21st-century Verdun.
Here is a highly detailed analysis of how Ukraine could potentially defeat Russia if attacked, with specific weapon systems, numbers needed, and targets within Russia that Ukraine could damage, as of November 17, 2024:
Ukraine’s Overall Strategy: Ukraine’s primary objective would be to inflict maximum damage on Russian forces, logistics, and key targets deep inside Russia using long-range precision weapons recently provided by Western allies. The goal is to degrade Russia’s ability to sustain offensive operations and force them to negotiate. Key elements include:
•Employ 500-1000 U.S. ATACMS short-range ballistic missiles (range 300 km) and 50-100 SCALP/Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles (range 250-560 km) to strike supply depots, airfields, ports, bridges, electrical grids, and military industry facilities 300-500 km inside Russia. This includes key targets like:
1 Logistics hubs in Belgorod, Kursk, Voronezh supplying Russian troops in Ukraine
2 Airfields housing bombers striking Ukraine like Engels-2, Dyagilevo, Shaykovka
3 Black Sea Fleet HQ and port in Sevastopol, Crimea
4 Tank and vehicle factories in Nizhny Tagil, Kurgan, St. Petersburg
5 Aircraft plants in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Irkutsk, Kazan
6 Missile production sites in Votkinsk and Yekaterinburg
7 Oil refineries and fuel depots across southern Russia
Damaging this military-industrial infrastructure would severely disrupt Russian operations and war-making capacity. Even a few hundred ATACMS could devastate key bases and factories.
•Use 1000+ TB2 Bayraktar, Switchblade and other attack drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting Russian artillery, command posts, and logistics. Ukraine has used drones to great effect constraining Russian maneuver.
•Defend against the Russian offensive by leveraging drones, 1000-2000 155mm howitzers, multi-layered air defenses, and asymmetric capabilities, while mobilizing 400,000-500,000 additional troops.
Contest the initiative and launch counteroffensives at the right moment.
Specific Weapon Systems and Numbers Needed:
Artillery: Ukraine would need a large number of long-range precision artillery systems to counter Russia’s 10:1 artillery advantage and strike key targets:
•500-1000 M142 HIMARS or M270 MLRS rocket artillery systems firing GMLRS (range 70 km) and ATACMS missiles (range 300 km). These would be the primary deep strike systems.
•1000-2000 155mm howitzers like the M777, Caesar, Krab, PzH 2000 (range 30-40 km) for supporting frontline operations. Ample guided rounds like Excalibur.
•500,000 to 1 million 155mm artillery rounds per month to match Russia’s production of 3 million rounds in 2024.
2/2
Air Power: While Ukraine’s air force is limited, it would need substantial air power to contest the skies and deliver standoff munitions:
•100-200 F-16 fighter jets armed with HARM anti-radiation missiles and precision-guided bombs for SEAD/DEAD and deep strike missions.
•50-100 Su-24, Tornado or other strike aircraft donated by NATO allies for delivering cruise missiles and guided bombs.
•1000+ TB2 Bayraktar drones and 10,000+ Switchblade, Phoenix Ghost and other loitering munitions for tactical strikes.
Air Defenses: To defend against Russian missiles and drones, Ukraine needs a multi-layered air defense network:
•20-30 Patriot batteries for long-range air defense against ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and aircraft. Current 3 batteries are insufficient.
•50-100 NASAMS and IRIS-T SLM medium-range air defense systems to protect key cities and infrastructure.
•1000s of Stinger, Starstreak, Mistral, Piorun and other MANPADS for short-range air defense.
Armor: To conduct counteroffensives and exploit breakthroughs, Ukraine requires substantial armored forces:
•500-1000 modern Western main battle tanks like Leopard 2, Challenger 2, M1 Abrams.
•1000-2000 infantry fighting vehicles like the Bradley, Marder, CV90, and Stryker for mechanized operations.
•1000s of Javelin, NLAW, Spike, Stugna-P anti-tank guided missiles to defeat Russian armor.
Effects on Russia’s Military Industry and Will to Fight: Striking the targets described above with long-range precision weapons could have devastating effects on Russia’s military manufacturing base and war effort:
•Destroying tank, vehicle, aircraft, missile factories would prevent Russia from replenishing heavy losses of equipment in Ukraine. Output could fall 30-50%.
•Hitting oil refineries and fuel depots across southern Russia would reduce gasoline and diesel production by 15-30%, complicating Russian logistics and mechanized operations.
•Damaging electrical grids and infrastructure supporting military industry could disrupt production schedules and supply chains.
•Constant attacks deep in Russia would demoralize Russian troops and population. Pressure to end the costly war would mount.
•However, Russia’s vast strategic depth, dispersed industry and fuel surplus offer some resilience. Total economic/military collapse is unlikely, but a favorable peace deal becomes more likely.
In summary, with sufficient Western weapons, especially 500-1000 ATACMS and 100s of aircraft, Ukraine could potentially defeat a major Russian offensive by devastating Russia’s military industry and logistics with strikes deep inside its territory. This could force Moscow to abandon its campaign, though overcoming challenges in absorbing so many new systems would be key. Continued proactive military aid from the U.S. and NATO remains essential to Ukraine’s success.
Add threatened use of new physics U.S. weapon systems to force Russia to surrender and withdraw from Ukraine.
Yet another gigantic scar that must be placed directly on the Biden Administration. The death and destruction in Ukraine as well as Israel resulting from a rigged election (data now shows bogus 10+ million votes compared to past elections) is a tragic reminder that weakness in the White House enables the worst of humanity.
If anyone can negotiate an end to this conflict, it is Trump. I pray that he does so.
Should that happen, would he be a recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize? Don’t hold your breath…
This isn’t complicated. Ukraine Russia is every bit the 2 state solution that Israel Palestine is. Add to that a very, very serious commitment by the West to stay out of Ukrainian politics and an even more serious rejection of Ukraine ever joining NATO & the rest are details.
Trump has been given a mandate election by the people. Whether he can facilitate an end to the Ukraine/Russia war and the details of the final peace may determine whether he deserves a Nobel, not that he will receive one though.
The recent escalation by the Biden administration in green lighting the use and providing target data, likely sans Biden’s demented knowledge, will make it that much harder to get that peace. Does the Trump mystic hold enough sway with Putin to prevent Russia from escalating in retaliation long enough for Trump to take office and effect a long term solution? Will the American people accept the cost of a probable rebuild of Ukraine cities should Trump make that offer for Zelensky to relinquish territory to Putin. I expect Trump to have all manner of deals on the table by the end of January.
“Damned if you do.”
“Damned if you don’t.”
Dear Mr. Hanson, I’ve carefully followed your analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war since 2021, and unfortunately you’ve almost always been wrong. You are still not getting the situation. I’m currently in Moscow, on a business trip. Russia will NEVER agree to a rearmed Ukraine. Do you really think that Russia — the largest country/landmass in the world with fewer than 150 million people — wanted more LAND from Ukraine ?! There is only one peace deal possible: (a) Russia keeps Crimea + the 4 oblasts it has annexed; (b) Ukraine agrees to never rearm nor join any military club like NATO; (c) Ukraine can join the EU; (d) the West can reroute Russia’s $400 bn into Ukraine for reconstruction; (e) the West lifts ALL sanctions imposed on Russia… something along these lines. Otherwise, the war will continue, (the Russian people are ready… as Boris Yeltsin once told Bill Clinton — never underestimate our people’s ability to suffer )… so the war will go on until a frozen conflict, and if this happens, the EU will disintegrate, the Euro will disappear, and America will never succeed in containing China. How shortsighted was it to pick Ukraine over Russia ?!
Oh Ukraine, give me a break, By 2030; thanks to the EU WOKE policy, Europe will be the 21st century’s version of the 19th century Qing dynasty – living in the delusion of it’s past grandeur. Also, somewhere in the mid 2030’s both Putin and Xi will be no more and their lack of developing successors will bring chaos to Russia and China for at least a generation. And finally, the Japanese and Koreans are currently all dressed up with no where to go – So it would behoove the United States has to think about the sun rising on the Indian Ocean and the African Continent.
All this is beginning to sound like England’s Chamberlian “”Peace for Our Time”. It didn’t work in 1939 when a German monster was running amuck in Europe, and it won’t work now with a Russian leader like Vlad the Impaler. Yes, the can, can be kicked down the road for another 3-5 years but sooner than later it will have to be dealt with.
Felt with in what way?
DELT not FELT
I wish President-elect Trump all the best in ending the war in Ukraine. However, when negotiating with Putin he should realize he is talking the devil incarnate as evil and devious as Stalin. Trump should also be aware that Putin has broken nearly every agreement he made with Ukraine and the West. General David Petraeus once described the war in Ukraine as a clear-cut case of “right versus wrong.” Tragically, some Republicans do not see this; they either don’t know history, have lost their moral compass, or worse become Kremlin’s useful idiots.
That’s why many on the right incorrectly claim that “the war was instigated by a globalist left, serving as a proxy conflict waged to ruin Russia at the cost of Ukrainian soldiers. They see it orchestrated by a now non-democratic Ukrainian government, lacking elections, a free press, or opposition parties. I hope you realize, Prof Hanson, that that kind of thinking is hogwash, and it is your obligation as a highly influential historian to refute such nonsense and point to the real reason Putin wants Ukraine: to reestablish the Russian Empire. Ironically, even if he takes Ukraine, he will still be bordering on NATO countries. Will they be next? Where does Russian imperialism end?
There is no room in this note to elaborate my argument, so I will end by saying that in the December 1, 1991, referendum 92% of Ukrainians voted for independence from Russia, including majorities in Donbas and Crimea. It does not get any more definitive.
Dr. Hanson did not state any agreement with the lines you copied; he wrote that as a description of “Many on the right…” You do not state in any way how that is “hogwash”. Putin invaded Ukraine in response to Biden’s weakness and fecklessness, a redux of Obama’s lack of response to taking Crimea, invading Donbas, and shooting down a civilian airliner. This is Biden’s war.
Questioning what American interests are in Ukraine is reasonable. Concern over depleting American military inventory is reasonable. Concern about Ukraine’s continued capacity to defend itself is reasonable: Ukraine’s army averages 45 years old. Dr. Hanson’s only obligation is to state facts and provide his insight, not to rationalize open-ended American commitment to Ukraine.
Putin will likely require a 200 nm buffer (minimum) in Eastern Ukraine where no weapons or military personnel can set foot. That will provide Moscow 450 miles of standoff/response time. Don’t be surprised if he demands 250 nm, not to round it up to an even 500nm, but to accommodate munitions currently fielded.
All products in this zone free from EU import taxes and administered by Russia.
Prohibitions on Ukrainian forces training with NATO – anywhere.
A couple questions and observations:
Where’s the deserved audit of American Taxpayer dollars committed to this war effort? Seems like the American people deserve this accountability. Why can’t we get that?
Of the Top-10 “Aerospace & Defense” stocks (public companies), ranked by market cap … GE, RTX, LMT, BA, GD, NOC, TDC, LHX, AXON, HWM … These top ten companies represent $937B in market cap with $403B in sales. Since the election, 8 of 10 of these stocks have been trending downward in price. So(!), do you really think it’s in their interest to settle these wars and support peace?
Rob, FYI, since the war started, there have been several audits and oversight efforts regarding the money going to Ukraine. The mechanisms established by the three OIGs at the U.S. DOD, the U.S. Department of State, and USAID already provide the necessary oversight and accountability. There have been no allegations of corruption associated with this support. Moreover, Ukraine has a vibrant civil society that has provided an important source of independent transparency and accountability for the government.
I’m not sure if the new DOGE agency created by DJT will oversee expenditures to the Ukrainian war effort, but nevertheless, this agency is long overdue. Elon and Vivek are the perfect co-leaders for running this department. Famous quote from Ronald Reagan “Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem”
But the sun is eclipsed by the moon, as Biden tells Ukraine, “Fire all of of our guns at once and explode into space.”
Wild.
“Endless wars?” This part of human DNA goes back to the Pleistocene and it’s doubtful in my mind that Trump or anyone has the ability to alter that! On Ukraine, all he and his allies need to do is keep them from losing and to be thence subsumed into Putin’s revived SSR. All Trump et al need to know that it’s not the cost in dollars but the cost to collective will.
I think the Soviet-Finnish wars, the Winter War 1939-40 and the Continuation War 1941-44 “rhyme” with the Russia-Ukraine War since the full scale Russian invasion in 2022.
Finland was part of the Russian Empire, declared independence in 1917, fought a civil war 1918-20 against their red guard who were militarily supported by the USSR.
In the Winter War, The Soviets attacked & failed to reconquer Finland, the Finns ceded 9% of their country to the USSR, but Finland survived.
In the Continuation War, the USSR attacked Finland again, the Finns became a Nazi German ally, regained their lost territories, before losing them again, and unconditionally surrendering to the USSR at the end of WWII.
Finland “won” because they survived what were wars for national survival. Unlike every other German ally, Finland was not occupied; and escaped the fate of its three Baltic neighbors who were absorbed back into the “Russian Empire.”
Finland was neutral for the entire Cold War, and built a capable military as a deterrence to a 3rd Soviet invasion. Finland is a good NATO ally that was once part of Russia (and Sweden too), and fought 2.5 wars with the USSR. It took Finland 75yrs to join NATO – it may take Ukraine awhile to join NATO too.
From the beginning Europe was not going to support this war financially any more than they supported NATO. Ukraine was never going to be able to defeat Russia and the USA knew it as indicated by our lack of action when Putin annexed Crimea. The USA interests lie in Israel, Taiwan and defending against China.
PER HISTORY, WARS ARE THE NORM, AND PEACE ONLY ALLOWS TIME TO PREPARE FOR FUTURE WARS.
President Trump has made many political promises during his election of 2024. Like many before him, he will not be able to fully implement the revolutionary changes he has discussed. The great thing about American’s constitutional republic is that shared self-government doesn’t provide for one person to rule.
I agree with Jaroslaw Martyniuk that Putin has broken every agreement about Ukraine. He started an unprovoked war, as others ignored the Budapest memorandam and is as bad as Stalin. Ukraine is fighting for its survival as a free democratic country. It is on the front to prevent the gates of hell to open on other European countries. The Biden administration has slow dripped weapons to Ukraine and has now finally agreed to allow Ukraine to use long range American missles into Russia.
There can only be peace through strenght and President Trump must continue to support Ukraine.
A deal to cut into Ukraine’s territorial integrity will only embloden Putin down the road.
There is an Axis of Evil. We see it in autocratic Russia, North Korea, Iran, China.
It must be stopped!
In the 1930’s Stain’s genicide against Ukrainian farmers starved many millions of Ukrainians to death. Now after the fall of the Soviet empire, Putin wants to ressurect it. If Ukraine falls, many other European countries, some NATO allies will be next.
President Trump has difficult choices, he would be wise to drive a very hard bargain against Putin.
Russia’s economy is now a travesty. Predient Trump needs to immediately open the Keystone pipeline to dramatically increase US oil production. With the price of oil dropping, Russia will not be able to feed its war machine.
Let’s hope.
There is an Axis of Evil! Russia, Iran, North Korea, China. All autocratic dictatorships. Russia invaded sovereign Democratic Ukrtaine and is Putin’s dream of ressurecting the Soviet empire. Every agreement about Ukraine has been broken by Putin, sending millions to death, and almost as bad as Stain. The Budapest Memorandam signed by Russia, UK, USA in 1994 had Ukraine give up it nuclear arsenal for security and territorial integrety as a sovereign Nation. Russia under Putin broke this twice., first under Obama in 2014 and now over 1000 days ago. President Trump would be wise to follow peace through strenght, supporting Ukraine. Ukraine is on the front lines holding back the gates of hell. All Europe is at risk if Putin prevails. Many millions of Ukrainian farmers were intentially starved to death by Stalin, Putin is now killing more millions.
Prof. Hanson likely didn’t have the benefit of knowing when he wrote this essay that first use of US long range missile by the Ukraine with US guidance is now a reality. It happened sometime in the last 24 hours and Russia is citing this event as the reason for them putting their finger on the nuclear trigger in the form of a revised Russian first nuclear use protocol.
The warmongering Democrats and Republican Neocons have now collectively managed to put civilization in a precarious spot. They are now daring Putin to end it all with mutually assured destruction. They are inviting Putin to use theater tactical warheads. To be sure, the slope downward from there to strategic missile use is near vertical – maybe a matter of minutes or hours.
This needs to be clearly and immediately put on Barack Obama if there is any hope identifying the instigator and averting the disaster. As the leader of the Democrat party and controller of what the US does next we have to ask the following question. Is it in Obama’s interest to see WW3 start before Biden leaves office? Obama undoubtedly enabled the firing of missiles into Russia through his remote control of the federal government apparatus but is backing off this nuclear precipice part of his plan? Seeing demented old Joe Biden wandering around lost at the Amazon conference today tells us he will not be saving humanity. This is far worse than the Cuban missile crisis. We’re in a terrible place – how does it end?
You really do not believe your statement that given Putin’s propensity to break his word and insidiously and endlessly seek to reestablish the borders of the old Soviet Union. You are stuck in the past with the ridiculous word salad you penned when in reality the new Russian Federation had zero intentions now or before of ever attacking a nuclear armed NATO country. You cannot say the same about the West expansion East as the actions they exhibit prove the real problem. If you want to be taken seriously get your facts straight to who has insidiously and endlessly broke their word with constant NATO expansionism.
Hard to believe that any Ukrainian would believe this war was worth the price they have paid in people and infrastructure damage. All because Zelinski wanted to join NATO. Poorly thought out by him and Biden. Of course, neither of them sacrificed anything.
I am in agreement with Victor’s assessment. It is reasonable. I support the West in aiding Ukraine against the global communist movement. Victor stated that strategically and morally Ukraine has every right to attack Russia inside Russia. The hard reality is that the US is woefully behind Russia in fighting and winning a nuclear war. The Russians and the Chinese have been preparing to win a nuclear war for a long time. The West has been fooled into believing in the MAD doctrine. We need at least some kind of negotiated deal for now because we have lost the deterrence advantage. We believed that when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the communist movement would no longer be a serious threat. While we let our guard down, the Russians went to work to strengthen and increase their nuclear program. The best we can do is buy some time for now. That is not appeasement, it’s just the reality.