Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
Hysteria has erupted here and abroad over President Trump’s threats to level trade tariffs against particular countries.
Both American and foreign critics blasted them variously as either counterproductive and suicidal or unfair, imperialistic, and xenophobic.
Certainly, tariffs are widely hated by doctrinaire economists. They complain that tariffs burden consumers with higher prices to protect weak domestic industries that, shielded from competition, will have no incentive to improve efficiency.
Their ideal is “free” trade. Supposedly a free global market alone should adjudicate which particular industry in any country can produce the greatest good for the world’s consumers, whether defined by lower prices or better quality, or both.
Even when “free trade” becomes “unfair trade”—such as China’s massive mercantile surpluses—many neoliberal economists still insist that even subsidized foreign imports are beneficial.
Cheap imports, Americans were told, supposedly still lowered prices for consumers, still forced domestic producers to economize to remain competitive, and still brought “creative destruction,” as inefficient domestic industries properly gave way to more efficient, market-driven ones.
But many exporters to the U.S. are propped up by their own governments.
They may seem more competitive only because their governments want to dump products at a loss to capture market share, subsidize their businesses’ overhead to protect domestic employment or seek to create a monopoly over a strategic industry.
Yet when Trump threatened to level tariffs against Mexico, Canada, Colombia, Venezuela, China, or the European Union, they were not primarily aimed at propping up particular inefficient U.S. industries at all.
Instead, an exasperated Trump threatened Mexico with tariffs for three reasons.
It refused to address its cartels’ illegal multibillion-dollar export of lethal fentanyl into the United States.
The cartels buy Chinese-supplied raw fentanyl with impunity, disguise it to resemble toxic drugs, and smuggle the product across a porous border.
The result over the last decade is more dead Americans from fentanyl than the total number of all U.S. soldiers lost in the wars of the twentieth century.
Second, Mexico had stonewalled all American efforts to stop their export of millions of illegal aliens into the United States—10-12 million in the last four years alone.
Mexico adds insult to injury by raking in profits from some $63 billion in remittances sent from its former resident citizens now residing in the United States and often subsidized by American taxpayers.
Third, Mexico grows its American trade surpluses each year. The imbalance is now a mind-boggling nearly $170 billion.
Trump threatened Canada because it has so far refused to police its side of an open and increasingly dangerous border. And it has racked up a $50 billion surplus by leveling asymmetrical tariffs on lots of U.S. products.
Canada also has refused to keep its NATO promises to spend 2 percent of its GDP on defense.
Canada’s pathetic 1.37 percent expenditure is predicated on American magnanimity. The U.S. alone protects Canada under the American North American nuclear shield and subsidizes NATO deadbeats like Canada by funding some 16 percent of the budget of the 32-nation alliance, as well as policing the international seas.
As for Venezuela and Colombia, both communist nations have deliberately emptied their prisons to send hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens into the U.S.—many of them violent felons. They do so either out of crass self-interest, hatred, or a strategic desire to weaken America.
China is a special case.
Its entire 20th-century ascendance was based on stealing U.S. technology, dumping its products on the U.S. market below the cost of production to capture market share, and forcing American corporations to relocate, offshore, and outsource—leaving our industrial hinterland a “rustbelt.”
The European Union runs a gargantuan half-trillion-dollar surplus with the U.S.
How?
Because for nearly the last 80 years, the U.S. has subsidized its defense during the Cold War and afterwards.
Europe acts as if it is recovering from World War II, so it can hit up a supposedly limitlessly rich American patron with asymmetrical tariffs.
Consider the various Trump “tariffs” leveled by an exasperated, and now $36 trillion-indebted, America.
Almost none of them meet the traditional definitions of an industry-protecting tariff.
Instead, they are the last-gasp tools of American leverage used only when decades of bipartisan diplomacy, summits, entreaties, and empty threats have all failed.
So, Trump is not a mercantilist.
Instead, he is trying to stop the multimillion-person influx of foreign criminals, the crashing of the border by millions of illegal aliens, the cartels’ export of American-killing drugs, the violation of past trade agreements, and allies from using America to subsidize their own defense.
The Trump tariffs are the last, desperate effort to reestablish global reciprocity and keep America safe.
And our “shocked” friends, allies, and enemies privately have known that all too well.
Simply put, it’s called “fair & balanced” trade as opposed to unbridled capitalism.
A quick summary is always useful.
Victor Davis Hanson argues that Trump’s tariffs are not traditional protectionist tools but strategic measures to counter foreign exploitation, mass migration, drug trafficking, and security threats. Unlike tariffs that shield weak industries, Trump’s approach pressures nations that manipulate trade, subsidize industries unfairly, and neglect security obligations. Critics ignore that these tariffs are a necessary correction after decades of failed diplomacy—America is finally leveraging its economic power to restore balance.
Globalism directly opposes MAGA.
I once supported globalization as a check against corrupt private-sector unions, but with their decline, the real power now lies in public-sector unions—funded by taxpayers and immune to outsourcing. Yet AI and automation will soon dismantle those jobs, a shift Trump is accelerating.
“Learn to code” is no longer sound advice—AI is replacing programmers too. I saw the software age emerge, and now I see it fading. Books on coding are disappearing from bookstores, signaling a profound shift. The question isn’t if automation will dominate, but how fast it will reshape the economy.
I’m so happy to have discovered your presence on tv interviews and YouTube. I also am a 6th generation Californian.A beautiful state raised in Huntington Beach. Having graduated in 1972 I was so consumed by Surfing, education took a back seat for years, my saving grace was a love of reading. Upon graduation there were around 12,000 people present in my town within 5years we were invaded by 300,000 East coast adventure seekers followed by another 2.3 million to the surrounding towns. I had an invite to move to Coeur d Alene Idaho and never looked back.. You’ve been a blessing to me giving me!! Understanding of the reality of current events. Trump is truly a blessing from above! I’m a devout non denominational Christian for years and was so distraught by years of lies and the threat of losing this great Country. Thanks again for your incite. You a very brilliant and good man God Bless 😎👍
I love your analysis, however, I think the situation is much more basic. With the floating exchange rate based upon the dollar makes it nearly impossible for the US to profitably compete. Currently the US dollar is strong against the Canadian dollar, Euro and Mexican peso. If you track the exchange rate changes over time US products automatically increase in cost in the foreign countries even when our cost of production has not increased. For us in the US, a strong dollar makes foreign products prices decline even though their manufacturing costs may not have changed.
The tariffs may help, but in reality it is best as a negotiating tool because the outcome is so unpredictable.
I just love your analysis, can for and humility; and I trust Trump listens to your analysis as well.
Victor, while I admire your take on most matters, and part of your defense of tariffs in this article, I think unintended consequences have not been recognized.
The Canadian economy is irrevocably intertwined with the American economy. Vehicle parts and assemblies cross and recross borders. Materials critical to the US economy; Potash 93%, 40% of imported oil, 20% of electricity to NE USA, 23% of Uranium are unable to be sourced from other countries. Export taxes on these items would be devastating the desire to control inflation. In addition, a boycott by 10 provincial liquor control boards would eliminate all American wine, beer and liquor sales in Canada.
Canada can rattle a Saber with the best of them.
However, what concerns me most is the incredible Nationalistic backlash by a usually complacent Canadian population. The feeling of betrayal is virulent. As a result, voters who were overwhelmingly ready to finally throw out the pathetic Trudeau government, are now rallying to the flag. The Canadian MSM are ignoting the Conservative contender, Pierre Polievre, and showcasing Trudeau’s resistance. I fear this tariffs fiasco has tilted the vote against Polievre, who is slighted as being Trump of the North.
The shameful lack of Canadian Nato funding must addressed… but by other means. Trade agreements were signed under the previous Trump administration, apparently with his approval. Declaring a National emergency to circumvent this agreement is disingenuous.
Here’s a current example of China “dumping its products on the U.S. market below the cost of production to capture market share”:
Walmart in San Clemente, CA sells a combination padlock for $1.43. It’s heavy duty with a “hardened steel” shackle and not “on-sale”.
YES, Thank you VDH.
“The Trump tariffs are the last, desperate effort to reestablish global reciprocity and keep America safe.”
If this last effort fails? Then what? Because the UU.S. will no longer be safe…WAR?
Stephen Moore @Unleash Prosperity points out that countries’ VAT taxes are actually tariffs; and that most of our imports have a 10%-20% tax levied by a substantive number,by both “friendlies”, and “not-so’s.”
I have been told by many I respect that ‘there is no evidence that countries are emptying their prisons to go north’. When our flabby-failure-in-chief says it, I know it is mostly BS. But when VDH says it, there must be some merit to Venezuela and Columbia doing this. Can anyone link a legitimate news source to confirm it?
Trump trying to stop the multimillion-person influx of foreign criminals; closing the border to millions of illegal aliens (note the missing, and likely sex-trafficked, 320,000 children): combating the cartels’ export of American-killing fentanyl; calling out the violation of past trade agreements and allies from using America to subsidize their own defense ….
OMG … Trump is an absolute Monster!!!
The idea that cheap subsidized imports force US producers to “economize” to stay competitive is merely a pipe dream of academics.
In the real world what “economizing” actually results in is cheapening the quality of what are typically superior US produced goods.
Ever try to work in Canada or the EU? I can tell you that it’s tough; you have to prove that you have the credentials (schooling and experience) and show that you have the means to support yourself while there working or studying. Not the case here. There is not a level playing field, and it’s been that way for many years. The rest of the world can come here and undercut our labor and also sell products that are subsidized by the state. Tariffs should be used and used much more stringently here to start the leveling.
Just come in as an illegal. We’ll put you up in a hotel and give you $3K CAD a month because you’re oppressed or something.
Thank you for the expanded version of ‘why tariffs’ are being used to seek reciprocity, much like those of 120 years ago under then President McKinley. Most people do not understand the use of diplomatic negotiation incentives, such as tariffs, to get back to a level playing field (reciprocity). We’ve been a soft touch for other countries over many decades and it is time to rattle the cages of complacency and get back to mutual responsibilities and care for one another. America alone cannot afford to be the global benefactor against tyranny. We need partners, not dependents.
Well said.
Excellent clarification. Both are right: the “doctrinaire economists” because tariffs potentially raise prices, and Trump because it has to be done. Freedom comes at a price.
Thank You VDH.
100%. One of your best.
The Canadian tariffs in particular have chilled CAPEX plans in both the US and Canada for those companies with activities which go across the border. If you recall your capital markets theory, an increase in uncertainty increases the cost of capital. Projects become riskier and are shelved. I have first level knowledge of this.
If the tariffs go through (after the 30-day cooling off period) you’ll begin to see layoffs across the Great Lakes area, from Rochester-Syracuse to Milwaukee….and wait for New England to squawk when the electricity they purchase from Hydro-Quebec is subject to a 10% tariff.
And your solution is……?
Solution to what? Trump is applying the solution to the problems enumerated above.
But in Canada’s case they are not problems. Every month, more than seven times as much fentanyl enters the U.S. from Mexico as comes from Canada in three years. 43 lbs were confiscated coming from Canada to the US in 2024. Toronto police just made a bust of 2000lbs of cocaine in Toronto that came from the US. Just one bust. The land border encounters at the southern border are 11 x that of the northern border. Meanwhile law enforcement officers in Canada report that 86% of guns used in crimes are illegal guns coming from the US.
So CAnada do not like the “illegal” guns” pouring over their boundary. That’s fine, lads. DO something decisive about both the guns and the drugs.
Perhaps if you were to allow your own to be armed, there would be some legitimte pushback against the border jumping AND the smuggling. Same folks doing both
That’s exactly right! I was hoping John would realize that!!!
Boy Victor, your thirty thousand foot view is pretty grim, but feels quite accurate. It also supports Tucker’s view that our ruling elite are self-absorbed and disgusting. Perhaps the fact that we are a geriatric nation ruins us of the contentiousness and vigor that is needed to jostle for our place amongst world leaders. It is ironic that our rather old President IS willing to shove his way to the front rank and assume pride of place that being a superpower affords us/him. It is my hope that the debriding of our hidebound institutions can unlimber the thews of our muscular underpinnings such that JD Vance et al might actually bring in a new Golden Age.