Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
When Russia invaded Ukraine, Americans overwhelmingly supported Ukraine—as they did with Israel after October 7.
No wonder: Ukraine was surprise attacked by Russia, and Israel was by Hamas.
It seemed an easy binary of good versus evil: both the attacked Ukraine and Israel are pro-Western. Both their attackers, anti-Western Russia and Hamas, are not.
Now everything is bifurcating. And the politics of the wars in America reflect incoherence.
Both Ukraine and Israel are portrayed in the media as supposedly bogging down in their counteroffensives.
More pro-Israel Republicans are troubled by Ukraine’s strategy, or lack thereof, in an increasing Somme-like stalemate.
Yet more pro-Ukrainian Democrats are turning away from Israel as it dismantles Gaza in the messy, bloody slog against Hamas. The left claims either Israel cannot or should not defeat Hamas, or at least at the present cost.
So the left pushes Israel to a ceasefire with Hamas.
It blasts Israeli “disproportionate” responses.
It demands that Israel avoid collateral damage.
It pressures it to form a wartime bipartisan government.
It lobbies to cut it off from American resupply.
It is terrified that Israel will expand the war by responding to aggression from Hezbollah and Iran.
Yet on Ukraine, the left oddly pivots to the very opposite agenda.
It believes Ukraine should not be forced to make peace with Russian “fascists.” It must become disproportionate to “win” the war.
President Zelensky deserves a pass, despite cancelling elections while suspending political parties.
America must step up its resupply to Kyiv with more and far deadlier weapons.
Ukraine has a perfect right to hit targets inside Russia.
Russian threats to widen the war should be considered empty and thus ignored. America should hate Russia far more than Hamas.
By contrast, conservatives are less supportive of Ukraine’s offensives, if more than ever allied with Israel.
In their realist views, Ukraine is a smaller power, vastly outnumbered by a richer, better-armed Russia. Thus, it should negotiate while it can, rather than eventually losing everything.
Israel, however, is, in their view, defeating Hamas. If allowed to finish the job, it can soon win the war in Gaza and still handle Hezbollah and deter Iran.
Furthermore, the right is wary that Russia is a nuclear power. The Ukraine war is unfortunately creating a new, potent anti-American axis of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea and drawing in former U.S. allies like Turkey and Qatar.
Yet, in Israel’s case, the U.S. is far more powerful than Hamas’s patron, Iran, and can easily deter it should Tehran intervene.
As of now, none of Hamas’s allies have nuclear weapons. Israel, however, does, unlike Ukraine.
Many conservatives further point out that Israel is a long-time U.S. democratic ally.
Ukraine’s elections are currently suspended while the country remains under martial law.
In realist terms, the old idea of Russian triangulation still makes some sense. Russia should be no friendlier to China than to the U.S., and China is no more aligned with Russia than with America.
Hamas, by contrast, is a terrorist clique, as are Hezbollah and all of Iran’s terrorist appendages. Their hatred of the U.S. is long-standing, immutable, and transcends the Gaza war.
How about the public’s views in general?
With over $35 trillion in debt, still smarting over the humiliating withdrawal from Kabul, and the military short 40,000 recruits, the public does not wish to get heavily involved in either war, even as polls still show radically differing left/right attitudes toward both.
Americans once overwhelmingly supported vast aid for Ukraine. Now they decidedly believe the U.S. is providing too much to Kyiv.
They still poll strong support for Israel over Hamas, but less so for Israel’s ongoing destruction of Hamas given the collateral damage that follows.
Given there are few Russian-Americans, there are almost no demonstrations on behalf of Moscow’s war. But there are plenty of protests for Hamas since there are lots of Middle-Eastern Americans and visitors within the U.S.
What are we to conclude about these contradictory wars and American attitudes toward them?
The more democratic and defensive the power, the more Americans support it—but only up to a point.
Even more, they demand quick victory—and lose interest when the wars stagnate, costs increase, and protests grow.
When Ukraine and Israel began costly counteroffensives, the former losing thousands and the latter killing thousands, the American public began to be less invested in either war.
Final lessons?
Israel should do all it can to destroy Hamas as quickly as possible and end the war.
Ukraine does not have the wherewithal to defeat Russia. It should cease costly offensives against Russia’s fortified lines and seek to negotiate.
Or, put another way, fickle Americans sympathize with those who are attacked. But their continuing support seems contingent on whether the victim can remain sympathetic—and win decisively to end the war rapidly.
Wonderful article. One nit: the attack on the Ukraine by Russia was many things. But one thing it wasn’t was a “surprise.” My friends and I actually had a betting pool months in advance as to when the invasion would start.
No one took the “not going to happen” bet.
You are spot on, Michael. VDH’s characterization as a “surprise” jumped out at me when I read it, also. When Russian has a couple of hundred thousand troops positioned on Ukraine’s border for a couple of months prior to the invasion, it is hardly a surprise when it happens. All the while this was happening Joe Biden was sitting on his hands. He made no public effort to defuse it; to the contrary, talks of the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO continued.
Hamas’s invasion on last October 7th, just as Washington’s crossing of the Delaware on Christmas Day of 1776 — now those were surprise attacks. Putin’s just doesn’t qualify.
What is Israel waiting for? They should have used the pretext of an Israeli delegation visit to Washington (ostensibly to huddle with the USG about the merits of such an operation) to launch their final Rafah operation. Denial and Deception. The JRB administration is not bold enough to exact too high a cost from the Israeli people and unity government. And this fight would be all but over. By the time the JRB humanitarian pier arrives and is operational, the IDF should be on the receiving end, and Hamas vanquished.
I think the summary is this – the further left you are, the more you hate democracy (i.e.: as Ukraine became more autocratic ,cancelling elections, stopping some Orthodox Church services, the left’s support increased), and the more traditionalist you are the more you support democracy and pursue peace. Traditionalists know Israel will defeat Hamas and continue to preserve the only real democracy in the Middle East; they also know that Ukraine cannot win and should cut the best deal for themselves they can without wasting more lives and money. Some will say that is a simplistic world view but you will see it generally plays out (unless Trump gets involved – then the left immediately opposes what he supports regardless).
I have always been skeptical of Ukraine because they are too personally close to Biden and the Democrats. And now the war is bogging down in a stalemate, and we are woefully short of ammo for field artillery. That war needs to end.
The Israel war is the latest flare-up of a perennial conflict. It was obvious since Oct 7 that the war will expand to additional fronts. As the fighters dance around each other waiting for the opportunity to launch full attacks in the North and West Bank, one thing is clear – Israel is in a very tough position, and the war is only going to get uglier. Ultimately, to survive, Israel must depopulate Gaza, and there is literally nowhere to send them to. And the Northern Front isn’t going to get any better unless Hezbollah is totally destroyed. Meanwhile, the Jordan and Egypt regimes are sitting on top of powder kegs.
It is a great disappointment to me to read these words from a man I consider the great American intellectual and military historian of our time. Conflating Russian and Hamas actions as equivalent sneak attacks. Upbraiding the American people’s changing attitudes to grinding wars as fickle and emotion driven.
Someday, historians will pour thru memoirs and archives to evaluate the competing claims of why Russian troops crossed the border in 2022. Were they making an undermanned and ill-equipped drive to conquer a city of millions of inhabitants, or were they launching a diversion to turn around the NATO army that had already begun its attack on Crimea?
For now, the American public live in an information age, with many sources to consult from around the world. There is no need to believe any common narrative and every reason to question years of stories that never seem to add up.
If Doctor Hansen is acting from Patriotic motives I can respect that, but I will state my opinion that an informed public makes the best decisions in the long run.
You made an agreement. Ukraine gave up their nukes. We guaranteed their sovereign protection. We have dropped the ball and now proven that a nuclear power can wage wars of conquest without response. I’m sure that’ll work out great.
Astute descriptive analysis. Prescriptively, I still feel strongly–especially as China watches–that we should enable Ukraine to “win” (in some meaningful sense). The alternative is unacceptable.
What I conclude is that fickle Americans can hold contradictory views because they don’t invest time in thinking about them in the same way you do. Or as Jonathon Swift wrote “You cannot reason a man out of a position he has not reasoned himself into”.
Given the savage, grotesque, inhuman surprise attack on civilians on October 7th, 2023 it’s difficult to form a mental picture of exactly what is a proportionate response to the barbaric, midieval slaughter of innocents would look like.
Also lest not forget, as VDH has pointed out on numerous occasions, the non-Hamas residents of Gaza were generally quite supportive of the October 7th invasion by Hamas. They reacted with glee! Just as many muslins did in this country in September 11, 2001, when out Twin Towers fell.
The U.S. really, really, needs to get better with its vetting as to whom we allow within “our gates”.
True enough.
But, unfortunately and sadly, now it is too late.
It’s been over 3 1/2 years with damn little opposition and merely soft talk of the House cutting budgets.
A couple months ago, a former head of Homeland Security, asserted there was at that time over 14,000,000 aliens here and on gov subsistence.
That subsistence and midnight flights represent a pretty penny of the House generated budget. Nevertheless, Rep Gaetz took heat for standing on principle and losing in the end.
They are inside the wire and the Dems are doing their best to register them to vote.
Dems plan and fight to win by any means while the GOP merely hopes to win.
There are two guiding factors here.
With Ukraine, the main theme is “follow the money”. Our military needs to be fed and the conflict in Ukraine is as good an excuse as any. We are not defending democracy in any way. The public is getting wise to the fact that we are seriously in debt and should not be funding a war in Europe. We are more than broke.
With Israel and Hamas, it is simply that we have too many non-western people in America. This problem will never go away. It is like a cancer and it will kill us, eventually. Western civilization is on the verge of crumbling because we have allowed it to be poisoned by people who do not believe in our basic tenets.
Two different factors, one is about money and one is about core beliefs.
Both are powerful and equally destructive.
I absolutely agree with you, Mr. Reynolds. The savage Nature of the attack on October 7 Would seem to justify The strong Israeli response. But how many crushed and bleeding Palestinian toddlers, will it take to pay for the bodies of immolated Israeli babies?
To paraphrase, Tevye from fiddler on the roof, Under this principal of an eye for a Under this principal of an eye for an eye and an eye and a tooth for a tooth the whole world will soon be blind and toothless. In other words, it will be without children.
Excellent analysis. This is a prospective I haven’t considered
Ukraine should have negotiated an end to the war early on and avoided the unnecessary deaths and ruination on both sides. Instead the US and UK encouraged Zelensky in setting foolish, maximalist conditions to enter negotiations. As a result the country is ruined and Russia will have its way in any case. The Ukrainian forces will have died needlessly all because the US and UK played a cynical game of sacrificing Ukrainians while Zelensky was too dumb to realize that Russia could never be allowed to actually lose as it would be too dangerous.
I agree with all points except Ukraine suing for peace. Russia doesn’t want a small sliver of Ukraine, they want all of it. There are other ways for the US to help defeat Russia and they don’t involve guns and ammo. If the US produced more oil we could run the Russians bankrupt. Biden would rather take Greta’s advice and keep it in the ground.
Excellent point. We have a lot of leverage over Russia. Biden will not use it, but Trump will.
We can squeeze Russian with our ability to lower oil prizes. From what I understand that is their only commodity to bring in foreign revenue.
I think you logic is wrong.
Russia appears to be fighting the globalist.
Israel appears to be heavy handed towards a much weaker foe.
Heavy handed? Israel lives in a rough neighborhood. Hamas is dedicated to their utter destruction. I am rooting for Israel!
“Final lessons” are spot on. The chance of them becoming a reality?
Biden – Zero / Trump – 100%
Russia has made clear that in any negotiations, the most it will allow is for Ukraine to become a puppet state, and possibly not even that. Besides invading Ukraine 3 times – the Donbas, Crimea, and the massive 2022 invasion – it has also seized chunks of Georgia and Moldova and turned Belarus into a puppet state. Its media surrogates have made clear that it will not stop with these countries. Russia’s ambitions today are strikingly similar to Germany’s in the 1930s. Ukraine is the only country in Europe which can defend itself without American troops. If we choose not to supply Ukraine with weapons and ammo, the battlefield will simply advance to the next country on Putin’s menu, and we will be faced with the choice of troops or a series of conquests in Eastern Europe.
“Now everything is bifurcating(?) and the politics of the wars in America reflect incoherence.” And why, pray tell, is that? Both the Ukraine and Russia and Israel and the Palestinians are todays Hatfields and MacCoys. You want to take sides? You must be carrying. Lot of rudder .
Both the Ukraine and Israel do money laundering to the maximum possible extent. Money goes to each country and then some is kicked back to US politicians and other Deep State operatives. Oddly enough, I believe both of these wars (Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas) are White Hat operations. Nothing is as it seems on the surface so I think it is fair to say that a better way to put this is there is a White Hat/Black Hat war in each location. This is the only way I can make any sense of what is happening in each theater– the Fake News being absolutely worthless. White Hats are patriots and believe in the rule of law; Black Hats are deep state criminals and terrorists. I believe NetAndYahoo is a deep state criminal as is Zelensky. But, of course, I welcome alternative viewpoints.
Hard to argue with this logic.
Also hard to agree with it.
We have no idea about what is really going on.
The “news” has nothing to do with reality. It is all influencer spin.
The best we can do is doubt everything. In the case of the legacy news operations, I assume that they are telling us lies all day to influence the dumb people. As they say, they have it “down to a science”.
I believe Netanyahu is an Israeli Patriot. I don’t know about Zelensky with regards to Ukraine.
I guess if we looked at their bank accounts we would get better insight.
“A deep state criminal as is Zelensky.” Sure, but you forgot to add that he is a Jewish Nazi. Why is it that Kremlin trolls hiding behind bizarre innocuous sounding pseudonyms are always the first to criticize Ukraine and Zelensky? “Proudly Unaffiliated,” you’re not fooling anyone and do reveal your true identity and location.
This article was added to the AM Update part of RealClearPolicy using the
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Should we believe that Russia attacked Ukraine by surprise? They were already engaged for eight years and the Russians massed troops on the border for weeks before February 2022. It’s not possible to compare the situations.
This is interesting. I feel the US should firmly support Ukraine and Israel. I am far more supportive of Israel’s goal of the complete annihilation of Hamas than anything since our goal to eradicate Al-Qaeda after 9/11. My hesitancy about Ukraine is that we established multiple CIA blacksites, have pushed NATO to Russian limits, were key to the color revolutions and have special forces on the ground (per BBC reporting). We act as though Russia is the aggressor but we have poked and prodded. However, allowing Russia to succeed is a mistake. We must signal to China and Russia that we are willing to fight the battles we are in, even peripherally, to their conclusion. After we help Ukraine win we should reconsider the future of NATO and turn inward. The whole goal of NATO was to defend the West from ideological powers that would encroach on its citizens ability to pursue lives of freedom. Europe is less free than ever and NATO is slowly morphing into the collective power of an increasingly leftist authoritarian European hellscape. America needs to beat Russia in Ukraine, allow Israel to wipe out Hamas and expand territory, reconsider NATO’s authority and scope, turn from globalist policy, and acknowledge its cold war with China and treat the CCP as the enemy to America that it is.
Tip,
Ukraine has zero chance of “winning” the war with Russia.
We are just feeding the American military machine. $FTM, nothing more, nothing less.
In my opinion, of course.
Spot on!
Yes, spot on.
Nothing more, nothing less.
Yet again the American public has been duped.
Mr Hanson, I see you all the time on Fox news channel and I want to suggest this to you to try to spread the word if you think it’s good. The governors senators and congressman probably Republican only, go to Washington and hold a conference out on the same place where Martin Luther King did his great speech and they tell all the things that Joe Biden and his gang like Blinken are lying about all the time I can’t possibly get this message to anyone but the fake media is lying to everybody so nobody here is the truth in any sort of large amount but this kind of public speech led by Mike Johnson would be to call out all their lies about the immigration and the foreign policy how they are betraying our allies and lying about everything and try to force the green agenda and cost the United States a lot of money with getting rid of us selling natural gas and not using the oil in the ground and many more things.
Maybe a fat lady handing out cookies, along with the rest of the blob color revolution crew had more to do with the “surprise” attack? Maybe looking back it’s not such a “surprise” that such a gross miscalculation of Russian vital national interests resulted in the mess we have today? Maybe sending Blinkens and Sullivans to play high stakes, all in poker might have been a bad idea when you are holding a 2-7 offsuit? And maybe I’m a Chinese jet pilot.
Sarcasm will not get you far, Mr Extinct. “Miscalculation of Russian vital national interests,” should read “Miscalculation of Russian contrived paranoia.” Neither Ukraine nor NATO ever presented a threat to Russia’s vital interests. These are not my words, but that of Mr Prigozhin and the real reason he was eliminated. It contradicted Putin’s fraudulent narrative.
We are in the first stages of WW III. The alliance of dictatorships v. the alliance of democracies. Ukraine was the first battle. Gaza is the second battle. Ukraine is capable of defeating Russia in Ukraine, with the assistance of the U.S. and Europe. The economic strength of the allied democracies is about 20 times the economic strength of China/Russia/Iran/N.Korea. The investment of about $60 billion to supply Ukraine and Israel is the best investment imaginable. Half of the money will be paid to U.S. companies, which increases our economic and military strength. The allied democracies are holding about $350 billion of Russia’s liquid assets, which can be used to pay back the allies and rebuild Ukraine. After the defeat of Russia its dictatorship will collapse —- as did the Soviet Union. At the present time the sanctions imposed by the allies and the cost to Russia of maintaining its invasion of Ukraine will soon bankrupt Russia. Its currency is becoming worthless and its standard of living is rapidly receding. Its military equipment is dwindling and is its trained military manpower. Russia is losing its productive population through war loss, out migration and demographic recession. Corruption within the totalitarian system will erode its capacity to maintain social control — both within its military ranks and within its private citizenry. Russia’s defeat will be a great deterrence to China’s invasion of Taiwan. Further aid to Russia is necessary.
Barry,
We are 35 trillion dollars in debt.
We have no money of our own to invest in any foreign wars.
Period.
Very astute comments, Barry. We are in the first stages of WW III, and the West had better realize that before it’s too late . . . for as Trotsky once noted “You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.”
In the last sentence of my prior comment the word “Russia” should be “Ukraine”.
Bottom line: War in Israel is war between GOD and Satan. Read Revelation. GOD will win, take the Jews through a terrible time. But, remember, we will be judged according to how we treat Israel. It is no small thing when you hate Israel. Jesus is a Jew..GOD’S only begotten son…America better wise up..if we turn our back on ISRAEL…we are done!!!!
Plain and simple
Betty,so well said and simple! Thank you and I wholeheartedly agree. It is a war good vs evil and America and the Jew haters in this administration back the Evil! Hard Times will befall the US for the decisions they are forcing upon Israel! So much of this would never have been if we wouldn’t have feared and fought the takeover and steal! Elections do have consequences and we are and will be seeing them…….God Bless Israel and the IDF!wish I was younger
Failing Moral clarity & Consistency 101:
When Russia invaded Ukraine Joe Biden promised to always support democracy and resist autocracy. That was great until Hamas, a thugocracy invaded democratic Israel.
VDH writes that “The Ukrainian and Israeli wars are similar and yet also different conflicts,” and that “it seems an easy binary of good versus evil.” While both statements are true, that is as far as the similarities go. These two wars have vastly different historical backgrounds, scope, and implications for world security and should not be compared but analyzed separately.
That said, since I read “A War Like No Other” I have been an ardent admirer of your writing and views on culture and politics. However, I have been extremely disillusioned by your seeming lack of empathy and understanding for the plight of millions of Ukrainians suffering from Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine. One might even get the impression that you are more concerned with the feelings of Russians than you are with Ukrainian attempts to stay free and independent. You also seem to be critical of Ukraine for declaring martial law and postponing elections. Please, Victor, how in the world do you expect a country that is one-fifth occupied with ten million displaced to hold an election? Furthermore, you make the inexcusable mistake other “experts” have made of equating Russian speakers with Russians. Today, even the remaining Russians in Ukraine don’t want to be part of Russia.
In effect, you’re telling Ukrainians to surrender and negotiate. I trust you realize, that negotiating with Putin is equivalent of signing the terms of your annihilation and erasure of Ukraine from the map of Europe. TBC.
followed by a bloodbath and purge of proportions we have not seen since the Holocaust. When Chechens lost their struggle for independence a quarter of their population was annihilated. Apply that fraction to Ukraine’s 40 million means the eradication, murder, and repression, of numbers comparable to those who perished in Stalin’s genocidal famine, the Holodomor. It would be the third genocide Russia has perpetrated in Ukraine during the last 100 years.
After thirty years of independence, Ukrainians have tasted freedom and determined they will never again be under the Russian boot as they have been for 300 years since Poltava and 70 years of Communist subjugation.
I bring to your attention something you wrote in “Carnage and Culture” some twenty years ago. In the section ‘The Meaning of Freedom’ (pages 51-53) you wrote that the Athenian mark of liberty was “freedom to speak” and the “freedom to choose the occasion of one’s own death.” You conclude that “the mark of liberty is man’s wish not to live as a slave, reminiscent of the motto “I’d rather die standing than live on my knees.” As an American of Ukrainian descent and survivor of Communism, I can tell you that this time Ukrainians, like the Finns in 1940, will fight to the last man to stay free and independent.
Jaroslaw,
I appreciate your strong feelings for your mother country. I’m sure that many others feel similarly.
However, the United States of America is broke and deeply in debt.
We have no business paying for foreign wars that have no direct impact on us. Our current crushing debt will eventually kill us and everything we stand for. History is quite clear about this.
If we can’t service our debt then nothing else matters.
Try running a household or a business like this and see what happens.
Catastrophe, every time.
I come from a proud Finnish heritage. The Finns hated the Russians so much that they teamed up with the Nazis to kill as many Russians as possible. Did a pretty good job of it.
The Finns were the only country that fully paid reparations to the West after the war.
Thanks for your comment, Jim.
The David and Goliath struggle taking place in Ukraine is practically identical to the 1940 Russo/Finnish War. However, Finnish tenacity (and threats of intervention by Britain, France, Italy, and Spain on the side of the Finns) stopped Stalin from overtaking the country.
I agree, we have no interest or money to fund foreign wars. Iraq and Afghanistan were examples of needless and wasteful wars that did not pose a direct threat to the United States. Russia’s war on Ukraine, however, is a completely different animal that directly threatens the interests of the US, NATO, and Europe. Ukraine is doing all the fighting and dying, and the cost of military aid provided to Ukraine is less than 5% of the US (or NATO) defense budget. That amount is tiny compared to the cost the West will have to incur if Russia wins and threatens Eastern Europe, which they are doing openly. Thus Russia is a mortal threat, not just to Ukraine, but to all of Europe, the United States, and indeed the world. Professor Motyl explains that better than I can in this limited space. Read his April 8 piece in The Hill: The West is failing to rise to the challenge of Russia’s threat https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4580536-the-west-is-failing-to-rise-to-the-challenge-of-russias-threat/
Victor; We never heard the final chapter of your Ram Diesel story. Your recent pod said you have your new 5.7 ram gas.
What I hope to hear from VDH in the next podcast is more about the most salient issue of the day:
Russia’s genocidal war on Ukraine which BTW dwarfs the Palestinian/Israeli conflict as a threat to world peace and stability. After all, Putin has effectively declared war on NATO, so it is much better to stop him in Ukraine than in the Baltics or Poland. The Ukrainian army therefore must get all the weapons and ammunition it needs because it’s already fighting NATO’s war. If Putin is not stopped there, the Baltics are next, followed by Poland, Moldova et al all the way to the gates of Berlin and Vienna.
You can spin it any way you want, but I believe history will see the connection between Obama and Victoria Nuland’s coup to dislodge a democratically elected Ukraine government as the precipitator of the entire conflict, exacerbated by the continual pressure of NATO to surround the Russian Federation. Russians have a historical memory, recalling past invasion and betrayals. One might say NATO expansion is a betrayal of agreements with Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. They see it in terms of the betrayal by Hitler of his agreement with Stalin. I am no fan of Putin, but that is the history that drives the events since Bush 41, like it or not.
“the continual pressure of NATO to surround the Russian Federation,” is a Kremlin propaganda swallowed by some very naive commentators in the West. So please sine agendis, spare us the myth.
The West couldn’t surround a herd of wild goats. You know it, I know it and Putin knows it. Putin is a megalomaniac who uses this pretext not only to recreate the soviet union but to resurrect the Russian empire. In doing so he has only strengthened NATO as we see from Finland and Sweden, long-standing neutrals, joining NATO. And why hide behind a ridiculous pseudonym?