Adolf Hitler started World War II by attacking Poland on September 1, 1939. Nazi Germany moved only after it had already remilitarized the Rhineland, absorbed Austria, and dismantled Czechoslovakia. Before the outbreak of the war, Hitler’s new Third Reich had created the largest German-speaking nation in European history.
Well before the attack on Pearl Harbor, the Imperial Japanese government had redrawn the map of Asia and the Pacific. Japan had occupied or annexed Indochina, Korea, Manchuria, and Taiwan, in addition to swaths of coastal China. Attacking Hawaii, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Indonesia was merely the logical 1941 follow-up to more than a decade of Japanese aggression.
Fascist Italy, by the outbreak of World War II in Europe, had already been remaking the map of the Mediterranean region in imitation of ancient Rome. Strongman Benito Mussolini had annexed what is now Ethiopia, Albania, and most of Libya. He promised Italians that the Mediterranean would soon be mare nostrum, “our sea.”
All of these hegemonies had arisen without triggering a global war. Had Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese just been satisfied and consolidated their winnings, there was no evidence that the tired Western democracies would ever have stopped them.
The contemporary world is starting to resemble the 1930s, and maps again must be redrawn.
The Islamic State plans to take Baghdad to make it the capital of a radical Sunni caliphate from what is left of Syria and Iraq.
Its enemy, theocratic Iran, is forging its own Shiite empire. Through its proxies, Iran now effectively runs much of Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. When Teheran gets a nuclear bomb, it will urge on Shiite minorities to overthrow the Sunni monarchies in the rich, oil-exporting Persian Gulf nations.
Russian president Vladimir Putin thinks he can reconstitute the empire of the czars and the later Soviet Union. American “reset” diplomacy green-lighted his annexation of the Crimea and his occupation of areas of Ukraine. Should Putin wish to absorb Estonia or other Baltic States, NATO probably would not stop him.
A terrified Eastern Europe, which not that long ago was part of the old Soviet Warsaw Pact, is already making the necessary political concessions in hopes that the unpredictable Putin leaves them alone.
China is vastly increasing its strategic air force and navy — and reminding its neighbors from South Korea to Australia of its new military clout. It has recently instigated various territorial disputes with Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. As a clever way to control key sea lanes and oil-rich areas in the South China Sea, the Chinese are building new military bases by turning small coral reefs into islands of sand.
Is this 1939 or 2015?
Well before World War II, Great Britain and France allowed Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese to acquire what they pleased. The Western European democracies were terrified of confrontation and mired in economic crises. They had their own long-standing empires to worry about.
The United States — struggling with the Great Depression, squabbling over the New Deal, and bitter over its prior intervention in World War I and the failure to achieve European stability — also kept quiet.
Nothing much has changed 75 years later. Western Europe is terrified of Putin and mostly disarmed. The European Union is awash with debt.
Meanwhile, Japan rearms and is trying in vain to forge a common anti-Chinese front with the Philippines, Taiwan, and South Korea.
As in the 1930s, an isolationist United States is again watching the new map unfold from the sidelines. President Obama assumes Americans are tired of the Middle East and want to be left alone. Afghanistan is a quagmire. Iraq collapsed once the administration pulled out all U.S. troops. The bombing of Libya proved a disaster.
In 1945, after some 60 million had perished in World War II, the Western democracies blamed themselves for having appeased and empowered fascist empires. That sadder but wiser generation taught us two lessons: Small sacrifices now can avoid catastrophic ones later on, and dictatorial regimes on a roll never voluntarily quit playing geostrategic poker.
If the present trajectories continue, a reconfigured Middle East will be bookended by radical Islamic empires — the Islamic State caliphate and a new Persian empire. China will control most of the Pacific and adjudicate trade, commerce, and politics west of Hawaii and to the south and east of India. The client states of a new Russian empire will border central Europe and be under constant pressure to leave the EU, NATO, or both.
How does all this end? One of two ways.
America and its allies can reawaken, gradually restore deterrence, and reestablish the old postwar order without a global war.
Or the United States will not be bothered — at least until this new generation of dictators bothers us at home.
© 2015 Tribune Media Services, Inc.
Maybe ISIS and Iran will nuke each other, along with Russia and North Korea and China? Then: peace.
Wow, just the thought of ISIS having a nuclear weapon at their disposal is enough to give one a severe panic attack. And what is our Community Organizer-in-Chief doing to “degrade and destroy” this band of psychopaths?
I’m starting to hyperventilate; my heart is pounding at 170 bpm; my skin is sweaty…
If you don´t know your history, you are doomed to repeat it…..
C´est un profétique article que vous nous avez écris là monsieur Hansson.
Scary time we are living know.
Vous êtes médecin, monsieur? J’ai étudié devenir un infirmier.
Je suis désolé. Mon français n’est pas bon.
So the US should ‘double-down’ on 12? Broken old record that is stuck in a groove and only plays the stay ting over and over.
With the US government being run by people whose historical perspective only goes back to the Viet Nam war (I am being generous here) it is no surprise that following the easy path looks to them like brilliant original thinking. Avoiding any semblence of responsibility for anything has a long pedigree of failure and disaster, but our president and state department might not be aware of any of it.
“at least until this new generation of dictators bothers us at home.”
We’ve been growing our own and they are bothering us right now.
And as to the goings-on of a ‘new world order’ I would suggest adding a seemingly ambitious China flexing its power in its regional neighborhood involving the seas. Another point of concern for the West.
All of the world events noted by Professor Hanson indeed should concentrate the democratic world to the extent that those events demand a strong and willful response.
This must be a careful time not to show weakness in the face of belligerence.
Wikipedia’s “outline of war”, by date. More than 270 wars since 1945. Flash forward to the democrats in complete control of government in 2008 with the election of “the One”—- healing the sick and raising the dead. And now, the image sold to gain power has been stripped bare. Win their hearts and minds became—our peerless vision for the Nation, no dissenters, swallow our rules. Somehow, in the “land of the free”, those who assaulted Americans freedom got booted from office. Foreign powers beheld a spectacle of internal strife, withdrawal of power projection. The following sums up the power of the image and the predicament we find ourselves in—– pajama-boy as a model for the Nation supplanted the Marines raising the flag on Iwo Jima. Pajama-boy is not being ridiculed here— the reasoning is, what image is being projected to ill-effects, to a bloodthirsty World. The United States lost face, borders are being redrawn, rumblings of war are now surfacing in print. The crucial choice in 2016. Vote with the creator’s of the image of pajama-boy, OR, vote for those with enough intelligence to see the dangers of broadcasting that image.
“”” George Soros warns washington to mend relations with China or face world war 3″”. From zero hedge.
” A terrified Eastern Europe, which not that long ago was part of the old Soviet Warsaw Pact, is already making the necessary political concessions in hopes that the unpredictable Putin leaves them alone.”
ha ha. Yeah. That always works out well.
Once you pay the Danegeld, you never get rid of the Dane.
“We are always living in the truth.”
Heidegger
Very bleak assessment which I agree with. Kinda makes the copper theft and dumping problems at home pale in comparison. God protect us with a hedge of thorns and please provide this country with some intelligent leadership.
So the new tripartite alliance would consist of Russia, China, and Persia. As recently documented by Brigitte Gabriel, there is already significant Persian presence in Latin America dating back to as early as 2005. And America is not going to do anything about it, especially after Iran gets its nuclear arsenal up and ready for deployment under any contingency.
When your head is in the sand, guess what is sticking up in the air.
The cycle between peace and war continues. The world is now on a trajectory of a major world war and nothing can be done to stop it.
It is the 1930’s all over again and blood, again, will have to be spilled on the alter of freedom in order to preserve it!
What a shame we humans are so predictable!
If political and military power tend to fill a vacuum of the same, they will certainly continue to move toward the amazing vacuity in the present White House the next occupant of which will inherit a foreign and domestic policy minefield.
Truly brilliant article.
Hopefully economic interest will force State powers to concede to the will of people. How can Isis sustain? Let’s say it does take over, will it sell oil, dates? Will it print currency, back banking, encourage home loans? Can a Middle Ages society navigate complex bilateral trade negotiation ? Or will it fall on its face, bested by hundreds of years of western socio technology?
“”” The eurozone must either integrate or disintegrate .”” From the Telegraph. Same in USA in 2016. An election producing more gridlock……
“”” How wars in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Europe have created an unprecedented refugee crisis””. From the National Post. WW2 refugees–50 million. Current situation–59.5 million refugees. Timeline for creating a disaster— 2008 Democrat debates. Obama–Hillary debating. Obama whispers into Hillary’s ear, photographed moment. After the whisper, Hillary changes from a tiger in the debates and a thorn in Obama’s side to a demure pussycat. Obama wins, and allegedly making good on the whisper, promptly offers Hillary the Secretary of State job. United States foreign policy, from the minds of two progressives, has led to more refugees than World War 2.
“””NATO conducts rehearsal for Ukraine siege.”””. From zero hedge. ” Carter heads first to Berlin, where he is expected to call for Germany to pull the panties up, do more for security in the World.
I believe that radical Islam is at war with civilization and that its proponents will push incrementally on all fronts until we of the west are all dead. They certainly intend to take Israel out first.
Sleep on New World. Let us eat and drink; for tomorrow we die.
Maybe someone might suggest to the Community Organizer- in-Chief to reverse his reset and put the Poles/ European ballistic missile system back in play. The Russian might have second thoughts on more illegal annexing actions. This might be away to stop this Gangster raising Eastern Europe.
After Iran obtains the bomb the Oil oligarchs will do the same and then the race will on to rule the Arabian continent. We are a Pacific country we need to ally with the Japanese, Australians and all other Pacific rim countries to counter China’s military might ,which regardless of what is said cannot compare to a willing and determined US military,. The 2016 Presidential election will the most important election since the end of WWII
We may get some elements reversed, but I fear the overall drift in the international order has developed to much momentum to avoid some type of major conflict or strife.
For your readers who may not know German history, here’s a quick reminder of why Germany invaded Poland (Prussia) and Czechoslovakia (Bohemia) in the first place; to regain it’s natural borders and territory as they existed prior to 1919. Borders that were moved by the Treaty of Versailles as a result of territory being taken away from Germany as punishment for WW1.
Consider your own country’s song, America the Beautiful and the stanza “…from sea to shining sea” which is a clear reference to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. In our original national anthem of 1841 you will find similar geographic references; “Von der Maas bis an die Memel, Von der Etsch bis an den Belt” (From the Meuse to the Memel, From the Adige to the Belt)
If you do a little geography homework, you will find the Maas starts in France and flows through Belgium and the Netherlands before draining into the North Sea. The Memel is a major Eastern European river that starts in Belarus and flows through Lithuania. The Adige (Etsch in German) is a river with its source in the Alpine province of South Tyrol near the Italian border with Austria and Switzerland. The Belt refers to Fehmarn Belt; a strait connecting the Bay of Kiel and the Bay of Mecklenburg in the western part of the Baltic Sea between the German island of Fehmarn and the Danish island of Lolland.
These three rivers and one strait identify Germany’s original North, South, East and West borders as they once existed when Germany was still a consolidation of kingdoms over 170 years ago. Berlin, at one time, was the natural geographic center of our country and why Bonn was abandoned in 1991 in order to restore Berlin as our true capital as it exists today.
Thank you President Obama, self proclaimed greatest president ever.