Victor Davis Hanson
Most think it likely that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will run against a probable candidate Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. If so, we can expect the following:
1) DeSantis will run on the Trump MAGA agenda. There will be no challenge on the major issues. There will be no Never Trump return, no Romneyism redux, no Liz Cheney-like recalibration of the Republican Party.
2) DeSantis cannot argue that his superb governorship gives him superior executive experience over Trump, given that Trump’s four years saw historic successes. And vice-versa. Instead, the race will hinge on two considerations: Trump will argue that DeSantis is his own copied automaton (e.g., “I made him”) and yet lacks Trump’s fire-in-the-belly combativeness, so necessary to challenge the leftwing destruction of our institutions. DeSantis will fire back that he will “get even not mad.” That is, his attacks on Disney or Martha’s Vineyard are laser-focused, shorn of puerile put-downs, cul-de-sac extraneous tweets, and narcissistic fixations with past grievances and hurts.
3) Trump will assert charisma; DeSantis competence. Each will try to combine both as Reagan did. But can Trump run or govern without the psychodramas of being surrounded by shysters like the Mooch or Omarosa, or the volatility of a Bannon or Roger Stone?
4) Alternatively, can DeSantis turn out 40,000 in an open-air rally in early February?
5) We know Trump from his presidency, but will we know him at age 78-79? Is he as alert and savvy and cunning as he was nine or ten years earlier? And in the debates, will DeSantis prove dazzling or more a 2016 Scott Walker, a figure with a similarly superb record of state governance, a willingness to take on the teacher unions and the Left, and someone who exuded executive competence—before he melted down on the debate stage?
6) The midterms may prove interesting. What to watch: how will the Trumpers in Ohio or Arizona do? Will a Republican blowout favor Trump, while the party just squeaking by suggests pushback against and weariness with Trump’s nonstop flamboyance?
7) Money will not be the object. Both will raise fantastic amounts of cash that will strangle the efforts of the others (e.g., Cotton, Pompeo, Haley, Pence, etc.). Instead, the nomination will likely be decided in the early primaries, given DeSantis will or will not shatter the aura of Trump Republican invincibility.
8) Some Christie-like marginal party candidate, angling for a cabinet spot or VP birth, will be a designated anti-Trump attack-dog. He will bark at Trump nonstop in the manner of the 2016 efforts of Mitt Romney or John Kasich, and his role will be to bait Trump in hopes of keeping him reactive and self-obsessed while DeSantis appears presidentially aloof from the mudslinging.
9) The Left will likely fund Trump’s efforts, in the manner they are already feigning sympathy for his “charisma,” while trashing DeSantis’s “mean spiritedness—and likewise are pumping money into Trumpian House and Senate and state candidacies on the theory the Trump brand is as toxic in the general election as it is invaluable during the primaries (i.e., ensure he will win in June, fail in November 2024). On the other hand, for all their hatred of Trump, at some point leftwing pols will figure that DeSantis lacks the negative personal polling of Trump, and might be the harder candidate to defeat, and thus the preferrable target of their funded invective?
10) The two are not running in a vacuum. Joe Biden will not run, despite protestations to the contrary. Kamala Harris will not be the nominee; she shares Biden’s cognitive challenges but without the excuse of senility or the fake patina of “Ole Joe Biden from Scranton,” given her toxic multiple personalities and her hyper-Hillary cackling. Newsom claims he will be more charismatic and “tough” and “experienced.” Maybe. But here in California, he is known as an obnoxious hypocrite and pampered Bay-Area empty suit, a featherbrain who listens to the last leftist he talks to. And when Gavin play acts the role of man-of-the-people and goes out to one of California’s weekly disasters (looting trains, wildfires, earthquakes, etc.) he puts on pristine Patagonia-like outdoor clothes and seems bothered by the proximate dust and dirt. Bottom line: Trump’s electability issue will not be so prominent, given Clinton and Biden were savvier politicians and were familiar old Democratic warhorses—at least compared to a Gavin or the factotums on the 2016 and 2020 debate stages.
11) Expect the unexpected. Will Trump be indicted on a trumped-up charge? Would it win him sympathy and votes or more likely relief, “I’m tired of the hysteria he attracts from the crazy Left”? Will Ukraine end with a whimper or a bang? Will we be in a stagflationary depression by 2024? How will Biden exit the stage? What dirt will the Left spring, in Access Hollywood, Kavanaugh hearing, or Russian collusion fraud fashion—or at this point are Americans bored with and immune to their melodramas? Can Trump match DeSantis’s campaigning mile-for-mile, despite being nearly 35 years older? Will Trump’s health hold out? Do we know much of anything about DeSantis compared to the now open book of Trump’s life? Does that matter anymore?
Will the two Floridians, make up, get around the Constitution, and run as a pair?
Discussion (30)
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I highly respect Thomas Sowell however I surmise his remarks are due to a stigma from adverse publicity in the 1960's of Trump's father's real estate business that produced disdain among some New Yorkers and they still have it for Trump.
Why does everyone make such a big deal out of Trump's tweets? I admire him for speaking his mind and being one of us not some phony who has every word scripted for him. Desantis and he may have had a disagreement who knows and perhaps his tweet was not an "attack" at all. Trump is the boss and that is how he gets results. The Republicans obviously did not listen to him about the funding of candidates and I would trust Trump's judgement on how to best spend the funds over anyone else in the party.
Yes, you have a great point. That is very scary. They need to remove Biden on corruption and mental incapacity, and Harris on dereliction of duty at the border. Prohibit both of them from ever holding federal office again, just like Cheney attempted on Trump with the ridiculous Jan 6 committee. The speaker of the House becomes president and the Dems and media will cry Fascism but nobody will care. Have the FCC cancel CNN, MSNBC all of them as they are cancelling conservative outlets everyday. Perhaps that is why they calling Republicans Fascists now because they know what is in store for them and they know what they deserve! Fire 25% of all federal employees. Investigate the Obama's and Clintons and if found guilty of wrongdoing rescind their pensions and secret service details. They would have to leave the US and go into hiding for the rest of their lives. That is what they deserve, NOT to live in the US!
Hello, President Trump and Melania really looked great the other night...rested, and calm and his speech was better than ever. He is eager to start the fight for sure. I would love to see him win and crush the democrats in a second term. Trump in a second term will have no reservations with a Republican Congress can stop the Dems once and for all. The Republicans have already crafted the necessary legislation on fair voting, gerrymandering, etc. and it will get passed. I think Ron Desantis should stay in Florida who needs him after that disaster still and run in 2028. I think Trump should run with Marco Rubio and dump Mike Pence!
Donald Trump (and the nation ultimately) had the great good fortune of running against the single worst candidate in the last 75 years, maybe longer. Please remember that during the campaign both candidates shared the ultimate reason to vote for either one of them; the other one was worse. They were both correct. President Trump led the charge in getting far more accomplished than almost everyone surmised. His accomplishments are impressive indeed. He also was/remains the most divisive POTUS, and now candidate again, in the last century or so. That is not favorable to good governance over time. IMHO the liabilities exceed the opportunities with the former POTUS. HE had his day and far exceeded expectations. May he have wisdom to see the highest value to the nation now by supporting the next leader.
Two bulls in the same pen never work out well. It would also tar DeSantis with the "crazy" that the former POTUS carries around with him every day. It will be a choice between the two and may cooler heads prevail.
If Trump had regressed into "largely adolescent behavior" by the time he ran for the Presidency, how in the hell did he win?
How about an example of a "reckless tweet" from President Trump?
Dr. Hanson thank you again for your analysis. A correction and a query to ponder: You wrote: “ Will the two Floridians, make up, get around the Constitution, and run as a pair?” My observation is that is seems that the President and Vice-President candidates cannot be residents of the same State. (Fla Electors). The Query: We likely all agree that President Trump is a bit impetuous and frankly even juvinile with his Twitter and endless ad hominem attacks on nearly all comers. He is certainly divisive. I wrote to Mr. Trump in June 2015 urging that he consider a run for President (he responded). He was the right man for the Executive at the moment, and he fulfilled a great need and did a great service to the USA as fearlessly fighting back against all Left adversity, including the Media and the Bureaucratic State (FBI Collusion Hoax etc). He was what the USA needed in 2020 - 4 more years of foundation building. Certainly the “Trump 2024” came to many minds as early as mid-November 2020. But the query suggests otherwise. The query is that given the acts and omissions of President Biden and the Leftist Democrat Party we (USA) needs a Republican Presidential who can win in 2024 and who can run again in 2028. Nevermind President Trump’s age, by the Constitution he is now limited to only one more term. This analyst concludes that it must be DeSantis in 2024 and then 8 years of the True Reset. Thoughts? John M. (twitter 65MAmerica) RE 65M votes to win ‘16
Excellent article! Thanks once more Professor Hanson. I believe the MAGA agenda/Commitment to America is a winner … but think Trump should shift to the role of “elder statesman” and support DeSantis for President with a VP of Haley/Pompeo/etc (strong field). Trump could open rallies then hand over to DeSantis. Trump has a strong base but his ongoing ego-centric election fraud, reckless tweets, etc will turn off (again) independent voters that would likely vote for DeSantis. Timing for Trump to shift roles is important because the moment he announces then the Dems will focus all the invective on DeSantis.
Hang on, there. Hunter is under investigation?? My prediction, GOP wins Senate and House, tells Joe quit or Hunter goes bye bye for 20 years. On Jan. 23 he resigns, Camel is Pres for less than two years, but is entitled to run for two terms. The GOP must be careful not to have TOO many investigations/impeachments or Camel (never appearing publicly but only with very carefully scripted TV appearances) gets a sympathetic backlash and she wins in 2024 with (AOC? as VP) The DEMs learned how to steal in 2020 and have been working on doing better later.
President Trump would be a lame duck, last term President and thus able to do more than DeSantis who would be looking to his second term. DeSantis would be smart to take the VP spot as his polling numbers would make him a sure candidate in 2028 and it's hard to imagine things not getting much better after Trump wins and Trump uses his VP and keeps him in the spotlight and he would be virtually guaranteed election.
Trump/Anybody has a disastrous ring to it.
In a 2017 presentation by the Hudson Institute, Thomas Sowell said that he had listened to an old television interview with the then 35 year-old Donald Trump. He was impressed that Trump seemed very "grown-up" at that age, but that by the time he ran for the Presidency, he had regressed into largely adolescent behavior. The trajectory has not improved since 2017. If Republicans nominate Trump again, it will say a lot more about the Party than it does the nominee. And what it says will not be flattering.
That would be the best slate--IF the GOP can neutralize all the left's lawfare attacks, all of which will be headlined endlessly by the corrupt media, and IF Trump doesn't become the issue instead of the real issues. And, of course, IF the Republicans find a way to stop the Soros-Zuckerberg-etc. hundreds of millions from tilting the election, again. Anyone who doesn't think they will try again is willfully blind. They're working on it "as we speak."
I would like to see them team up and run against a Harris-Newsom team.
I do not think it matters where she was born, if she was born to US citizens, but I don't think she was, so yeah, she's out.
The bigger question is whether there will be primaries. If Trump decides to run, some think he will run unopposed. If Trump decides not run, there will be many candidates like in 2016; and De Santis would be the favorite.
What a wonderful pair...Trump-DeSantis....wow. My vote is assured.
I hope they do run together.
Equally as important is what happens after the midterms. If we have a repeat of post 2010 Republican wave, where the party appeared completely and utterly ineffectual in the aftermath, It will have a lasting effect on enthusiasm going forward. My last political donation was in 2010, and for me, I made a lot. I will never make another. If on the other hand there is a wave, and positive policy momentum can be established, I believe we have an entirely different election environment. Time will tell, but I can't say I have a ton of faith that "party leadership" will materially advance the ball to the point where our scenario radically changes. The House may have a reasonable progression. The Senate, I have my doubts. I am not saying that policy failure determines the outcome of 24. I do feel it has a material effect on who the candidate is, and how hard it will be to achieve policy reversals that last. At the end of the day, if this is not achieved, deep doo doo.
Your insights VDH are, as always, extraordinary. The first excellent summary of the likely Trump-DeSantis confrontation. I am Trump weary, Trump exhausted. I would support DeSantis all the way in 2024. What Trump achieved was amazing against all odds, notably the Supreme Court, but degraded by his lack of discipline. For all of his success in my opinion his greatest failure was the loss of the two Georgia Senate seats and I attribute the losses entirely to him. It was conduct unbecoming on an epic scale as only Trump can do. Finally, with all due respect to President Trump, he will be too old to serve as Biden now makes plain. A 46 year Old President DeSantis sounds quite refreshing. I don't think Pompeo or Cotton, whom I have great respect for, will have gravity in their favor in the primaries if DeSantis moves next year. It is DeSantis or Trump. Everyone else is less than 5%. Thank you for your insightful commentary.
Trump/DeSantis has a pretty nice ring to it. And in 2028 DeSantis would be tested and ready to receive the torch from the octogenarian Trump. Maybe there is hope for America, after all.
As a pair would be an intriguing turn of events.
Trump's supporters will not abandon him. I certainly won't. He has my vote if he runs. He had delivered wonderful results. That's all we can ask and expect from politicians.
Hadn't realized that Sears was born in Jamaica and not the U.S. Our loss.
I'd love to see them team up, Trump as President, DeSantis as Vice-President. And then DeSantis runs for President in 2028.
Well done forecast of the 2024 race. Republicans can afford to look at all comers and let them battle it out on the debate stage. In addition to Cotton, Pompeo, Haley, Pence, there will be others. Youngkin is one, and yes, there will likely be some never-Trump attack dog (Chris Christie?) Kasich might dust off his tiresome act once more. Democrats would get a token, lame Republican to root for, also guaranteed to lose. Josh Hawley always looks and acts Presidential. The most impressive Republican of the year not named Ron DeSantis is Winsome Earle Sears. She must be prominently featured in a major role at the convention. She could snag the VP role but there is nothing stopping her from running for the top job. She does not suffer fools gladly and might be a force on the debate stage. She is powerfully persuasive when she speaks. We may have seen the last of the likes of Low-Energy Jeb! Little Marco, or Lyin' Ted. Biden and Trump are both wild cards. If Trump gets the nod, Biden will want to run again. If not, the Democrats will finally let the Hunter Biden notebook and investigation be made public. Or let Republicans impeach him first and save them the trouble. Ever more skulduggery abounds.