{"id":9862,"date":"2017-02-16T12:00:29","date_gmt":"2017-02-16T20:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=9862"},"modified":"2017-02-17T16:05:23","modified_gmt":"2017-02-18T00:05:23","slug":"the-three-headed-hydra-of-the-middle-east","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-three-headed-hydra-of-the-middle-east\/","title":{"rendered":"The Three-Headed Hydra of the Middle East"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review<\/em><\/p>\n

Trump has inherited a matrix of problems that primarily stem from Iran, Russia, and ISIS.<\/p>\n

The abrupt Obama administration pre-election pullout from Iraq in 2011, along with the administration\u2019s failed reset with Russia and the Iran deal, created a three-headed hydra in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

What makes the Middle East monster deadly is the interplay between the Iranian terrorist regime and its surrogates Hezbollah and the Assad regime; Russian president Vladimir Putin\u2019s deployment of bombers into Syria and Iraq after a 40-year Russian hiatus in the region; and the medieval beheaders of the Islamic State.<\/p>\n

Add into the brew anti-Americanism, genocide, millions of refugees, global terrorism, and nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

ISIS is simultaneously at war against the Assad regime, Iran and Iranian surrogates such Hezbollah, and Russian expeditionary forces. ISIS also seeks to energize terrorist attacks in the United States and Europe.<\/p>\n

Stranger still, ISIS almost surely is receiving stealth support from Sunni nations in the Middle East, some of them ostensibly American allies.<\/p>\n

This matrix gets even crazier.<\/p>\n

The authors of reset policy during the Obama administration are now furious at President Trump for even talking about what they tried for years: reaching out to Putin. Yet in the Middle East, Russia is doing us a favor by attacking ISIS, even as it does no favors in saving the genocidal Assad regime that has murdered tens of thousands of innocents \u2014 along with lots of ISIS terrorists as well.<\/p>\n

Iran is the sworn enemy of the United States, yet its foreign proxies attack our shared enemy, ISIS. The very troops who once blew up Americans in Iraq with shaped charges are for now de facto allies on the Syrian and Iraqi battlefields.<\/p>\n

Given that there is now no political support for surging thousands more U.S. troops into Iraq to reverse the disastrous Obama-administration pullout, there are three strategic choices in dealing with the Middle East hydra, all of them bad:<\/p>\n

One, hold our nose, and for now ally with Russia and Iran to destroy ISIS first. Then deal with the other rivalries later on. (The model is the American-Soviet alliance against Hitler that quickly morphed after 1945 into the Cold War.<\/p>\n

Two, work with the least awful of the three, which is probably Russia. (The model might be Henry Kissinger\u2019s outreach to Mao\u2019s China that left Moscow and Beijing at odds and confused over the role of the United States.)<\/p>\n

Three, simply keep out of the mess and let them all diminish one another, despite the collateral damage to the innocent. (The model is the savage Iran\u2013\u200bIraq war of 1980\u2013\u200b88 that weakened U.S. enemies Saddam Hussein and the Iranian theocracy, though it resulted in some 800,000 deaths.)<\/p>\n

In the short term, option three is ostensibly the least costly \u2013 at least to the U.S. But 2 million Syrian and Iraqi refugees have swarmed Europe, coinciding with an uptick in radical Islamic terrorism. Syria is becoming the new Balkans or Rwanda \u2013 and nonintervention would mean allowing the wasteland to spread, as hundreds of thousands more civilians die or flee westward.\u200b<\/p>\n

Which of the other two options is the least objectionable?<\/p>\n

After 2014, we quietly pursued option one by fighting in parallel fashion with Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and the Assad government against ISIS, the more dreadful enemy.<\/p>\n

Apparently, the Obama rationale was that when ISIS was destroyed, the U.S. could then come to terms with an energized and empowered Iran rather than with Russia. The jury is out on that strategy.<\/p>\n

The second option so far seems to be President Trump\u2019s preference: a new d\u00e9tente with Putin in the hope that he will back off even a bit from his support of Iran and Hezbollah as we jointly fight ISIS.<\/p>\n

The flipping-Russia approach may seem unlikely: It assumes nuclear Russia is far less of a threat than soon-to-be-nuclear Iran. Would Putin really be willing to write off a half-century of Russian support for Syria?<\/p>\n

Or can Putin see that the U.S. has mutual interests with Russia in opposing all Islamic extremism \u2013 both ISIS and Putin\u2019s Iranian clients?<\/p>\n

Would the mercurial Putin work with moderate Sunni regimes, Israel, and the U.S. to provide regional stability?<\/p>\n

Can Trump persuade Putin that having Iran as yet another nuclear power near the borders of the old Soviet Union (in addition to Pakistan, India, North Korea, China, and NATO forces) is not in Russia\u2019s interest? Would overlooking Putin\u2019s autocracy be any worse than the Obama administration\u2019s negotiations with a murderous Iran, the world\u2019s chief sponsor of terrorism?<\/p>\n

What would be Putin\u2019s steep price to abandon Assad, to ensure that Iran stays non-nuclear, and to finish the destruction of ISIS?<\/p>\n

Overlooking Russian autocracy? Keeping mum should Putin threaten autonomous nations on his border?<\/p>\n

These are bad choices.<\/p>\n

\n

Trump, a political outsider, did not create the monster. Rather, he inherited from past U.S. leaders the three-headed hydra of the Middle East.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review Trump has inherited a matrix of problems that primarily stem from Iran, Russia, and ISIS. The abrupt Obama administration pre-election pullout from Iraq in 2011, along with the administration\u2019s failed reset with Russia and the Iran deal, created a three-headed hydra in the Middle East. What makes the Middle […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1102,1097,1092,375,28,59,1],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-2z4","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":10075,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/hall-of-mirrors-in-syria\/","url_meta":{"origin":9862,"position":0},"title":"Hall of Mirrors in Syria","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 10, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The Corner The one and only. by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 Syria is weird for reasons that transcend even the bizarre situation of bombing an abhorrent Bashar al-Assad who was bombing an abhorrent ISIS \u2014 as we de facto ally with Iran, the greater strategic threat, to defeat\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Putin"","block_context":{"text":"Putin","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/putin\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11586,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-departure-of-mattis-and-engagements-in-the-middle-east\/","url_meta":{"origin":9862,"position":1},"title":"The Departure of Mattis and Engagements in the Middle East","author":"victorhanson","date":"December 21, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review The near-destruction of ISIS in a matter of months (losing 99 percent of its landed caliphate), the restoration of sound defense budgeting, a reestablished sense of deterrence, and stable recalibration with allies were the signature achievements of James Mattis. 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But by the Obama administration? by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online The U.S. and its allies are faced with four major threats, and they are as diverse and yet as akin as the proverbial apocalyptic horsemen.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China"","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/china\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"(Photo Illustration: NRO)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/four-horsemen-of-the-apocalypse-c-500x292.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":8720,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-road-to-middle-east-perdition\/","url_meta":{"origin":9862,"position":4},"title":"The Road to Middle East Perdition","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 13, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"From reset to the Iran deal, Obama\u2019s mistakes are so comprehensive they almost look deliberate. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online How did Vladimir Putin \u2014 with his country reeling from falling oil prices, possessing only a second-rate military, in demographic free-fall, and suffering from an array of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Russia"","block_context":{"text":"Russia","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/europe\/russia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"(Bill Pugliano\/Getty)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/pic_giant_081814_SM_Barack-Obama-G_1-500x292.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":7922,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ruins-of-the-middle-east\/","url_meta":{"origin":9862,"position":5},"title":"Ruins of the Middle East","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 14, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Obama shuns our friends and courts our enemies. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online Obama\u2019s unfortunate Middle East legacy was predicated on six flawed assumptions: (1) a special relationship with Turkey; (2) distancing the U.S. from Israel; (3) empathy for Islamist governments as exemplified by the Muslim Brotherhood\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "The Middle East"","block_context":{"text":"The Middle East","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"(Win McNamee\/Getty Images)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/pic_giant_101414_SM_Barack-Obama-G-500x291.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9862"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9862"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9862\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9867,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9862\/revisions\/9867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9862"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9862"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9862"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}