{"id":9774,"date":"2017-01-24T12:17:00","date_gmt":"2017-01-24T20:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=9774"},"modified":"2017-01-24T12:17:00","modified_gmt":"2017-01-24T20:17:00","slug":"prosperity-is-destiny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/prosperity-is-destiny\/","title":{"rendered":"Prosperity Is Destiny"},"content":{"rendered":"
\u00a0By Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review<\/em><\/div>\n

If the economy grows during Trump\u2019s administration, his opposition will dwindle.<\/p>\n

\u201cTen thousand cuts an awful lot of family ties.\u201d \u2014 Pike Bishop in The Wild Bunch<\/p>\n

When Ronald Reagan entered office in 1981 amid negative economic growth, roaring inflation, and high unemployment, his critics immediately grew emboldened and sought to ankle-bite him at every turn: Reagan purportedly had created homelessness all by himself; Reagan was on the verge of ensuring a \u201cnuclear winter\u201d and a \u201cday after\u201d desolation from a likely nuclear exchange, given his nihilistic tough stance against the Soviet Union.<\/p>\n

After dismantling the air-traffic controllers\u2019 union, Reagan had supposedly endangered the lives of plane passengers and ruined the idea of unionism itself, replacing it with \u201clet them eat cake\u201d indifference.<\/p>\n

Yet four years later \u2014 with an economy booming at over 7 percent per year \u2014 Reagan breezed to reelection victory. It was suddenly \u201cMorning in America.\u201d His 1984 election opponent, a decent and respected Walter Mondale, was reduced to a cardboard-cutout caricature of fossilized 1960s liberalism.<\/p>\n

Bill Clinton did almost everything imaginable to destroy his presidency in his last two years in office: kinky sexual explorations with a young subordinate intern, lying under oath about his tawdry escapades, and a recrudescence of older sexual-harassment allegations. Most Americans believed that he was an inveterate liar and would never leave their teenage daughters in the same room with such a creepy sexual predator. No matter \u2014 he was not removed from office even though he\u2019d been impeached. His Republican accusers never quite understood that the American people preferred having an economy with a growth rate above 4.5 percent to removing a sleazy Lothario from office.<\/p>\n

George W. Bush got reelected in 2004 despite massive opposition to the ongoing Iraq War because the economy was growing at nearly 4 percent in 2004. He left unpopular in 2009, not only owing to Iraq (evidence was already in by January 2009 that his bold surge had worked) but also because the economy had imploded in September 2008.<\/p>\n

One reason that a personally popular, landmark Barack Obama failed as president \u2014 aside from doubling the debt, institutionalizing zero interest rates, leaving a mess in the Middle East, and using his un-Midas touch to undermine nearly everything he tapped, from health care to immigration law to race relations \u2014 was that he was the first modern president under whose tenure the economy never reached a modest 3 percent economic-growth rate. Had Obama just achieved 4 percent economic growth, Hillary Clinton would be president.<\/p>\n

In other words, economic growth and perceived prosperity cut a lot of political ties.<\/p>\n

The election of Donald Trump has turned everything in the political world, from the trivial to the existential, upside down. He is the first non-politician without military experience to become president. The polls and press caricatured him for nearly two years as a classic loser. He won despite being outspent and out-organized, and without real support from his own party or the mainstream conservative press. The Left is rightly convinced that he is a danger to the postmodern redistributive state. The Never Trump Right is still invested in his eventual implosion, issuing \u201cI warned you about him\u201d messages in a nonstop effort of self-justification.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s demeanor, language, and comportment remain antithetical to what we are accustomed to in a sober and judicious president. Cat-like Barack Obama gracefully tiptoed down the steps of Air Force One almost like a prissy metrosexual; a grimacing Trump stalks about as if he were on a work site inspecting the cement on a newly laid foundation. Obama, with his Mussolini-like strutting jaw, conveyed collective revolutionary confidence to the Left; to Left and Right alike, the scowl from a slouching Trump suggests unrepentant payback to come.<\/p>\n

The nation\u2019s stunning new First Lady is foreign-born and speaks heavily accented English. Trump is the first thrice-married president and the first billionaire to assume office. All that is just the personal disconnect from norms of the past.<\/p>\n

On policy, Trump promises to outdo the reset of Ronald Reagan, who lacked Trump\u2019s Republican-controlled Congress, vast majorities in the state legislatures and governorships, and the blank-check authority bequeathed by Harry Reid and Barack Obama, whose ends-justify-any-means-necessary changes in legislative and executive protocols have fortified the presidency with enormous new avenues of power. Reagan lacked the legislative apparatus to become a true revolutionary; Trump\u2019s windfall Republican majorities almost force him into that insurrectionary role.<\/p>\n

So Trump is intent on overturning Obama\u2019s therapeutic foreign policy, slashing federal spending, rebuilding the military, exporting fossil fuels, waging a cultural war against political correctness and the liberal media, and enforcing immigration law. In other words, from his person to his policies, Donald Trump is a revolutionary, with a huge target on his back that the foundations, universities, networks, major newspapers, Hollywood, and the coastal-strip elite will always have in their scope.<\/p>\n

Indeed, in that regard, the Trump revolution\u2019s mantra of \u201cdrain the swamp\u201d is a sort of political RoundupTM strategy: The root causes of progressive hysteria must be addressed by fundamentally recalibrating approaches to the media, the universities, and immigration. It seems that Trump means to challenge the tactics that to date have fueled left-wing agendas that otherwise would not gain support from a majority of the public.<\/p>\n

Political observers, left and right, assume that Trump\u2019s mouth and personal recklessness will derail his agendas. Heraclitus\u2019s \u201ca man\u2019s character is his destiny\u201d (an obscure fragment [\u1f26\u03b8\u03bf\u03c2 \u1f00\u03bd\u03b8\u03c1\u03ce\u03c0\u1ff3 \u03b4\u03b1\u03af\u03bc\u03c9\u03bd] that could be translated in a variety of quite different ways) is quoted ad nauseam to suggest that Trump\u2019s intrinsic and immutable flaws will inevitably lead to overweening arrogance and thus catastrophe, as nemesis catches up with him at precisely the most opportune \u2014 and embarrassing \u2014 moment.<\/p>\n

Perhaps.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s far more likely that Trump\u2019s fate will hinge on his economic reforms. Achieve 4 percent\u2013plus GDP growth rate and then Black Lives Matter, the residuals of Occupy Wall Street, the hysterical House Democrats, and the assorted unhinged fringe of Michael Moore, Lena Dunham, and Madonna will recede into the woodwork.<\/p>\n

In truth, we are on the cusp of a great experiment. For decades, conservatives, both traditional and pro-growth supply-siders, have preached that deregulation, reasonable and predictable Federal Reserve interest rates, reduced government, a radically simplified and pruned-back tax code, new incentives for investment, an open energy market, and a can-do psychological landscape that encourages entrepreneurship will make the economy soar at rates of 4 percent GDP and more.<\/p>\n

We shall soon see. If Trump unleashes American know-how and strengthens the economy, then his cultural and domestic agendas, as well as his personal demeanor and language, however radical and jarring, will probably be accepted. In contrast, if he blows up the deficit and sees interest rates spike at Carter levels and the cost of debt service soar, if he allows unemployment to grow \u2014 while never exceeding Obama\u2019s dismal economic growth rates \u2014 then the Trump agenda will stall and the media will be liberated to obsess over the tweets, gaffes, and bombast of every nanosecond of his presidency.<\/p>\n

Economic growth cuts through political orthodoxy; economic stagnation intensifies it. Regrettably or not, prosperity, not character per se, determines a president\u2019s political fate.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0By Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review If the economy grows during Trump\u2019s administration, his opposition will dwindle. \u201cTen thousand cuts an awful lot of family ties.\u201d \u2014 Pike Bishop in The Wild Bunch When Ronald Reagan entered office in 1981 amid negative economic growth, roaring inflation, and high unemployment, his critics immediately grew emboldened and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1098,1094,1092,49,47,571,41,187,46,619,1],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-2xE","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":11191,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-miraculous-image-rehabilitation-of-former-republican-presidents\/","url_meta":{"origin":9774,"position":0},"title":"The Miraculous Image Rehabilitation of Former Republican Presidents","author":"victorhanson","date":"May 17, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review It\u2019s an evergreen media strategy for disparaging the sitting GOP executive. When Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980, many in the media considered him a dangerous extremist. Some reporters warned that Reagan courted nuclear war and would tank the economy. He certainly was\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ronald Reagan"","block_context":{"text":"Ronald Reagan","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/ronald-reagan\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4665,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ronald-reagan-what-weve-forgotten\/","url_meta":{"origin":9774,"position":1},"title":"Ronald Reagan: What We’ve Forgotten","author":"victorhanson","date":"June 18, 2004","format":false,"excerpt":"A shorter version of this essay appeared in a Reagan commemorative issue of\u00a0National Review Magazine. by Victor Davis Hanson There will be a great deal of blanket praise written about Ronald Reagan in the next few days. Yet I don\u2019t think his legacy will be judged by his unwavering ideological\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "June 2004"","block_context":{"text":"June 2004","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2004\/june-2004\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4652,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/a-reagan-for-everybody\/","url_meta":{"origin":9774,"position":2},"title":"A Reagan for Everybody","author":"victorhanson","date":"June 25, 2004","format":false,"excerpt":"Who exactly was Ronald Reagan? by Victor Davis Hanson Private Papers One of the strangest developments following the recent funeral of Ronald Reagan was the emergence of all sorts of \"authentic\" \u2014 and irreconcilable\u2014Reagans. Die-hard conservatives assured us that the California governor who signed the most liberal abortion legislation of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "June 2004"","block_context":{"text":"June 2004","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2004\/june-2004\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6697,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/obamas-credibility-gap\/","url_meta":{"origin":9774,"position":3},"title":"Obama’s Credibility Gap","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 31, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"The former hope-and-change president no longer gets a pass. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/\u00a0National Review Online\u00a0 By 1968, President Lyndon Baines Johnson was finally done in by his \u201ccredibility gap\u201d \u2014 the growing abyss between what he said about, and what was actually happening inside, Vietnam. \u201cModified limited hangout\u201d and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Punditry"","block_context":{"text":"Punditry","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/opinion\/punditry\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5336,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/reagans-second-act\/","url_meta":{"origin":9774,"position":4},"title":"Reagan’s Second Act","author":"victorhanson","date":"June 12, 2004","format":false,"excerpt":"Media concedes simple truth, not simpleton by Bruce S. Thornton Private Papers Ronald Reagan's death in the midst of a hotly contested presidential election has occasioned all manner of oddities. There was John Kerry, the absolute antithesis of Ronald Reagan, making the pilgrimage to Simi Valley and monitoring his remarks\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Bruce S. Thornton"","block_context":{"text":"Bruce S. Thornton","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/our-contributors\/bruce-s-thornton\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":420,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/election-could-mirror-1980-race\/","url_meta":{"origin":9774,"position":5},"title":"Election Could Mirror 1980 Race","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 3, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services There was only one presidential debate in 1980 between challenger\u00a0Ronald Reagan\u00a0and President\u00a0Jimmy Carter. Just two days before the\u00a0Oct. 28\u00a0debate, Carter was eight points ahead in the Gallup poll. A week after the debate, he lost to Reagan by nearly ten percentage points. Reagan's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Election 2012"","block_context":{"text":"Election 2012","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/obama-administration\/election-2012\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9774"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9774"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9774\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9775,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9774\/revisions\/9775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}