by Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n
Tribune Media Services<\/p>\n
On the campaign trail, presidential candidate Barack Obama once called for a \u201creset\u201d policy with Iran. Supposedly, the unpopularity of the Texan provocateur George W. Bush and his administration\u2019s inability to finesse \u201csoft power\u201d had needlessly alienated the Iranian theocracy.<\/p>\n
After all, the widely quoted but highly politicized 2007 National Intelligence Estimate claimed that Iran had ceased work on a bomb in 2003 and would not have a weapon for the foreseeable future. That flawed analysis fueled another popular talking point: that the Bush-Cheney warmongers were looking for more phantom weapons of mass destruction in Iran of the sort that had led them into Iraq.<\/p>\n
In contrast, Obama proclaimed himself to be a more sophisticated sort of president. His left-wing politics, post-racial appeal, and his father\u2019s Muslim heritage supposedly might win over the heretofore needlessly alienated Iranians \u2014 and most others in the Middle East as well. At no point did candidate Obama stop to consider that the Iranians could view his loud politicking and opportunistic criticism of Bush\u2019s hostility toward Iran \u2014 identical to standard US bipartisan policy under at least the four prior presidents \u2014 as weakness to be manipulated rather than magnanimity to be appreciated.<\/p>\n
After Obama took office in 2009, we had a new Iran 2.0 policy implemented on a variety of fronts. We courted Vladimir Putin by canceling an Eastern European anti-ballistic-missile project in hopes that the Russians would help stop Iranian proliferation. We scheduled face-to-face talks with the Iranians. We did not press initially for economic sanctions of Iranian exports and imports. We largely ignored Iranian terrorists who were killing Americans in Iraq.<\/p>\n
The Obama administration kept quiet in the spring of 2009 when a million Iranians hit the streets to protest their cruel authoritarian regime. It seemed to apologize for the 1953 overthrow of Iranian Mohammed Mossadegh. It reopened our embassy in Syria, Iran\u2019s closest ally in the Middle East. It jawboned Israel, Iran\u2019s worst enemy in the Middle
\nEast.<\/p>\n
The result of Obama\u2019s Iran 2.0 policy?<\/p>\n
Failure on every front. The Iranians sped up work on the bomb. They snubbed every deadline we issued. They increased weapons shipments to Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon. The Russians aided rather than blocked Iranian nuclear efforts.<\/p>\n
More recently, the Iranians plotted to kill a Saudi diplomat in the United States. They issued warnings to the Sunni Arab Gulf kingdoms and tried to stir up their Shiite populations. They turned to Afghanistan and helped supply Taliban and al-Qaeda terrorists. They forged an anti-American alliance in Latin America with Hugo Chavez. They are boasting about closing the Strait of Hormuz and warning allies of Israel of possible retaliation.<\/p>\n
Jimmy Carter\u2019s reset foreign policy crashed in 1980 with the Communists entering Afghanistan and Central America, and with American hostages taken in Iran, and so was followed by a suddenly tough new Carter Doctrine. Likewise the Obama administration is now forced to reset its policy.<\/p>\n
With Obama\u2019s new Iran 3.0, we are flip-flopping and now ratcheting up sanctions. We are announcing the dispatch of additional warships to the Persian Gulf. We are lobbying the United Nations for tougher resolutions against Iran and freezing Iranian assets in the US. We are no longer warning Israel to play it cool, but rather publicly and matter-of-factly announcing the likelihood of a preemptive Israeli bombing strike.<\/p>\n
In other words, after demagoguing the old Iranian 1.0 containment strategy, the Obama administration is now trying to play 3.0 catch-up after its own failed 2.0 appeasement policy.<\/p>\n
The ironic result is that war is now far more likely with Iran than it ever was under George W. Bush, and for far more reasons. Obama faces no knee-jerk, left-wing criticism. Just as the Left went silent when Obama suddenly took ownership of Guantanamo, Iraq, renditions, and tribunals, it won\u2019t hit the streets if he takes action against Iran. If Obama finds himself behind in the 2012 campaign, such a bold move would win him political unity and advantage in wag-the-dog fashion.<\/p>\n
Due to Obama\u2019s hostility toward Israel, the United States now has far less knowledge about, and influence with, the Israeli military. And the long-appeased Iranian theocracy is now more likely to miscalculate, thinking either that the confused Obama administration won\u2019t stop it, or that any American attempt to stop it would be only half-hearted.<\/p>\n
Obama\u2019s initial Iran reset policy squandered the American sense of deterrence. Now we are desperately trying to regain the tough bipartisan approach taken under earlier presidents.<\/p>\n
But the likely result of this schizophrenia will probably be an Obama 4.0 Iran policy \u2014 in other words, a big war in the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n
\u00a92012 Tribune Media Services<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services On the campaign trail, presidential candidate Barack Obama once called for a \u201creset\u201d policy with Iran. Supposedly, the unpopularity of the Texan provocateur George W. Bush and his administration\u2019s inability to finesse \u201csoft power\u201d had needlessly alienated the Iranian theocracy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[124,196],"tags":[319,12,1026,74,293,317,1039,30,169,403,1077,162,1016,1037,444],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-fD","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":2636,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/reflections-on-the-iranian-enigma\/","url_meta":{"origin":969,"position":0},"title":"Reflections on the Iranian Enigma","author":"victorhanson","date":"June 22, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson PJ Media Thoughts on Iran 1) \u00a0Why did we reject the Bush policy of non-engagement with a monster like Ahmadinejad, who oppressed his own and threatened nuclear destruction to Israel? Is it all that moral, or all that wise, or all that much in U.S. realpolitik\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "June 2009"","block_context":{"text":"June 2009","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2009\/june-2009\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2612,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/missing-our-moment-in-iran\/","url_meta":{"origin":969,"position":1},"title":"Missing Our Moment in Iran","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 6, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services Last month, hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to protest a rigged presidential election. Our president was extremely cautious in his initial criticism of the Iranian government's fierce crackdown against the protestors. At first, President Obama said that the United\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "July 2009"","block_context":{"text":"July 2009","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2009\/july-2009\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8598,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/obama-tougher-on-congress-than-on-khamenei-read-more-at-httpwww-nationalreview-comarticle422339obamas-unpresidential-iran-speechtargetauthortid900280\/","url_meta":{"origin":969,"position":2},"title":"Obama: Tougher on Congress than on Khamenei","author":"victorhanson","date":"August 11, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Obama's Unpresidential Iran Speech:\u00a0The speech was mean-spirited and dishonest \u2500 and may have been counterproductive. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online President Obama\u2019s speech last week advocating congressional approval of the Iran deal was mostly made-up history mixed with invective. Indeed, he talked far more roughly about his\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Iran"","block_context":{"text":"Iran","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/iran\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"(Pool Image\/Getty)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/pic_giant_010615_SM_Barack-Obama-G-500x292.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1460,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/obama-unbound\/","url_meta":{"origin":969,"position":3},"title":"Obama Unbound","author":"victorhanson","date":"November 14, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services Richard Nixon went to Red China with political impunity. Had a Democrat tried that, he would have been branded a Commie appeaser. To this day, liberals cannot conceive that during the two world wars, progressives like Woodrow Wilson, Earl Warren, and Franklin Delano\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Foreign Policy"","block_context":{"text":"Foreign Policy","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/obama-administration\/foreign-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2240,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/a-troubling-policy-on-iran\/","url_meta":{"origin":969,"position":4},"title":"A Troubling Policy on Iran","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 6, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson NRO's\u00a0The Corner Chickens Roosting Where to begin with the \u201csurprise\u201d announcement of a second, previously undisclosed \u201cnuclear facility\u201d? Some thoughts: (1) This is Iran\u2019s answer to the Obama\u00a0video peace offensive. This summer we kept quiet while thousands went into the streets of Tehran to protest brutality\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "October 2009"","block_context":{"text":"October 2009","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2009\/october-2009\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1540,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/bush-did-it-is-not-a-foreign-policy\/","url_meta":{"origin":969,"position":5},"title":"‘Bush Did it’ Is Not a Foreign Policy","author":"victorhanson","date":"June 23, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services Not being George W. Bush while apologizing for America's purported sins is not a foreign policy. Ronald Reagan came into office with the idea of rolling back the Soviet Union. Reagan hoped that such an evil empire might collapse from its inability to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "June 2010"","block_context":{"text":"June 2010","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2010\/june-2010\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/969"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=969"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/969\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":970,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/969\/revisions\/970"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}