by Bruce S. Thornton<\/p>\n
FrontPage Magazine<\/em><\/p>\n Iran announced Sunday that it was cutting off crude oil sales to France and England, a mostly symbolic act given that Iran provides England less than 1% of its crude, and France claims that it \u201cpractically stopped importing Iranian oil,\u201d according to the head of the Union of Petroleum Industries. A few days later, the head of Iran\u2019s armed forces threatened to attack Israel preemptively through its terrorist proxies in Lebanon and Gaza. The Iranians are once again using bluster to counter the EU ban on Iranian oil slated to begin on July 1, and the threat of Belgium-based SWIFT to ban Iran from its system for facilitating transfers of payments among nations through its international network of banks. As a further provocation, the Iranians sent two warships through the Suez Canal in a show of support for global pariah Syria. This follows the Iranian-engineered terrorist attacks on Israeli targets in India, Georgia, and Thailand.<\/p>\n At the same time as they threaten and foment terrorist attacks, the Iranians have told the \u201cP5+1\u201d nations (Permanent UN Security Council members and Germany) of their \u201creadiness for dialogue\u201d and their \u201cnew initiatives\u201d concerning their nuclear program, and have allowed UN inspectors back in the country, even though President Ahmadinejad said last week that \u201cOur nuclear program is not a subject for negotiations.\u201d Consistent with this position, inspectors were denied access to military installations believed to house nuclear testing equipment. Validating Iran\u2019s lie that its nuclear program is for domestic energy, Army General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced that \u201cwe believe we know that the Iranian regime has not decided\u201d to make a nuclear weapon, and that \u201cit would be premature to exclusively decide that the time for a military option is upon us.\u201d The ominous background to all this diplomatic chatter is the continuing speculation about when or if Israel will take military action, or whether Israel has the capacity to degrade Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities enough to make an attack worth the risk and blowback.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not hard to figure out what\u2019s going on in this diplomatic two-step we\u2019ve been dancing with Iran for years. We know that Iran is dead set on acquiring nuclear weapons, or at least \u201cnuclear latency,\u201d the ability quickly to create a weapon. Since its creation in 1979, the Iranian regime has been about more than Iran. As one ayatollah said at the time, the revolution was just \u201cthe start of the story. An Islamic and divine government, much like Iran and better, will be created\u201d in other Muslim nations. And more recently, an editorial in the newspaper Kayhan, published by \u201cSupreme Guide\u201d Ali Khamenei, proclaimed Iran\u2019s \u201cfixed strategic goal\u201d: \u201cOur late Imam [Khomeini] openly spoke of raising the flag of Islam on top of the palaces of arrogant power, notably the White House . . . as the goal and purpose of the Islamic Revolution.\u201d Seeing itself as a world-transformative power, Iran has been the foremost inspiration and supporter of jihadist violence, its prestige enhanced by its serial humiliations of the US, and by its genocidal aggression against Israel, the \u201clittle Satan\u201d to America\u2019s \u201cgreat Satan.\u201d Given its massive oil reserves, which mean it will always have a source of revenue, an Iran with nuclear arms will be virtually untouchable, and thus able to dominate the Middle East and damage our interests, whether by holding oil exports hostage, sparking a larger arms race in the region, attacking our ally Israel, or handing off nukes to one of its numerous terrorist proxies.<\/p>\n Equally obvious is the feckless response of the West to this threat, which seems to have followed a Micawberesque policy of hoping \u201csomething will turn up.\u201d Unwilling to act, for years now we have followed a course of inspections, \u201ctalks,\u201d and sanctions as toothless substitutes for action. At least we are consistent, for this is precisely how the West handled the embassy hostage crisis in 1979. Then too we tried sanctions, secret offers to negotiate, and trade embargoes in order to change Iranian behavior. But political, national, and economic self-interest rendered them all ineffectual. For example, the NATO countries were begged to impose a trade embargo, but threats by President Bani-Sadr to cut off oil to Europe \u2014 sound familiar? \u2014 led to a weakened and hence ineffectual policy. As the\u00a0Economist<\/em>\u00a0pointed out at the time, \u201cThe denial of material things is unlikely to have much effect on minds suffused with immaterial things.\u201d The Iranians never have acted by the materialist calculus we have used in our dealings with them.<\/p>\n Moreover, today\u2019s Iran has North Korea as the model for dealing with the West by using diplomatic and inspections processes to create time for achieving nuclear capability. And North Korea is an economic basket case that can\u2019t even feed its own people, unlike Iran, whose oil somebody will figure out a way to buy no matter how many allegedly \u201ccrippling\u201d sanctions the West imposes. Yet despite this history, Western leaders continue to assert that \u201csanctions are working\u201d and that a bit more time will bring Iran to its knees, as Dennis Ross, who was Obama\u2019s Middle East advisor, recently asserted. Meanwhile, Iran\u2019s thousands of recently announced new-generation centrifuges will soon start spinning out even more enriched fuel necessary for weapons.<\/p>\n We all know that military action is the only way to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of a state led by religious fanatics with a world-historical mission to wave the banner of Islam over the whole world. Yet the only credible threat of force resides with Israel, and we have been doing everything we can to undercut our ally, for whom a nuclear Iran represents an existential threat. In various ways, the administration has put pressure on Israel not to attack but rather to endorse the magical thinking that Iran will suddenly change its decades-long pursuit of nuclear weapons because of economic pressure. Thus General Dempsey, at the same time he stated Iran was not pursuing such a weapon, also said of the Israelis, \u201cA strike at this time would be destabilizing and wouldn\u2019t achieve their long-term objectives. I wouldn\u2019t suggest, sitting here today, that we\u2019ve persuaded them that our view is the correct view and that they are acting in an ill-advised fashion.\u201d Of course, however \u201cdestabilizing\u201d such an attack might be, it wouldn\u2019t be as much so as a nuclear-armed Iran. And Israel\u2019s first priority is not the price of oil, or the political comfort of other nations, but the continued existence of her own people.<\/p>\n The other tack is to highlight the prohibitive difficulty of such an attack, as theNew York Times<\/em>\u00a0did Monday in a cover story headlined, \u201cIran Raid Seen As a Huge Task For Israeli Jets.\u201d Yet as David Goldman\u00a0reports<\/a>, an analysis by Hans R\u00fchl in\u00a0Die Welt<\/em>\u00a0\u201cis highly confident that Israel could knock out Iran\u2019s nuclear program for a decade or more with about 25 of its 87 F-15 fighter-bombers and a smaller number of its F-16s.\u201d Over at the\u00a0Wall Street Journal<\/em>, Edward Luttwak\u00a0argues<\/a>\u00a0that the difficulty of a US attack on Iran results from exaggerated estimates of target numbers made by the Pentagon during the Bush administration: \u201cThe overall bill for this assault was thus hugely inflated into a veritable air armada that would last weeks rather than hours, require more than 20,000 sorties, and inevitably kill thousands of civilians on the ground.\u201d Ruled out by such inflation was \u201cthe option of interrupting Iran\u2019s nuclear efforts by a stealthy overnight attack against the handful of buildings that contain the least replaceable components of Iran\u2019s uranium hexafluoride and centrifuge enrichment cycle \u2014 and which would rely on electronic countermeasures to protect aircraft instead of the massive bombardment of Iran\u2019s air defenses.\u201d In other words, a decision not to act resulting from political self-interest and a geopolitical failure of nerve is rationalized as based on military concerns.<\/p>\n The Obama administration\u2019s pressure on Israel is baffling. It must know that no matter what, Iran will not give up its facilities or conveniently forget the expertise they have acquired over the last few decades. This means that any solution \u2014 cooperating with UN inspectors, for example, or agreeing to a \u201cfreeze\u201d on enrichment \u2014 that leaves this equipment and knowledge in the hands of the current Iranian regime will not prevent the mullahs from eventually acquiring the bomb. Like North Korea, Iran will cheat, lie, delay, and otherwise game the process to buy time to complete developing the weapons. Thus for Obama to browbeat Israel as he has been doing is inexplicable. As Mario Loyola writes at\u00a0NRO<\/em>:<\/p>\n The US should be helping the Israelis deter Iran\u2019s further nuclear advance by helping them to scare the Iranians into thinking that an attack is coming. Instead, the Obama administration is doing everything possible to telegraph to Iran that we\u2019re terrified of a conflict and are doing everything to prevent it. That\u2019s exactly the same as inviting the Iranians to continue their pursuit of nuclear weapons. If there is an explanation for this, other than incompetence, I would love to know it.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n One should never rule out incompetence when explaining anything the Obama administration does. But history shows that people are usually more influenced by the unforeseen consequences and risks of action than they are by the consequences and risks of inaction. That\u2019s where leadership comes in: good leaders show their people that the dangers of not acting are usually greater than those of acting, that there are always risks and costs to defending a nation\u2019s interests and security, and that there is no cost-free, risk-free way to stop a determined fanatical aggressor. That\u2019s what Abraham Lincoln, Winston Churchill, and Ronald Reagan did in their times. And that\u2019s what Barack Obama has proven he is incapable of doing in ours.<\/p>\n \u00a92012 Bruce S. Thornton<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" by Bruce S. Thornton FrontPage Magazine Iran announced Sunday that it was cutting off crude oil sales to France and England, a mostly symbolic act given that Iran provides England less than 1% of its crude, and France claims that it \u201cpractically stopped importing Iranian oil,\u201d according to the head of the Union of Petroleum […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[124,22],"tags":[12,434,332,1039,1017,1027,198,1047,1071,169,213,1056,1016,1037],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-fj","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":984,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-final-countdown-israel-vs-iran\/","url_meta":{"origin":949,"position":0},"title":"The Final Countdown: Israel vs. Iran","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 8, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce S. Thornton FrontPage Magazine The 33-year farce of Western appeasement of Iran may be reaching its denouement. For the last few months, the pace of events have quickened as the West sanctions and threatens, and Iran blusters about closing the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off oil to Europe,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Israel"","block_context":{"text":"Israel","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/israel\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1085,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-case-for-military-action-against-iran\/","url_meta":{"origin":949,"position":1},"title":"The Case for Military Action Against Iran","author":"victorhanson","date":"January 12, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce S. Thornton FrontPage Magazine Iran\u2019s 30-year war against the United States may be reaching its decisive moment. Signs of the worsening crisis abound. Iran just announced it has begun enriching uranium at the Fordo underground nuclear site, a key step to producing more quickly fissile material for a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Iran"","block_context":{"text":"Iran","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/iran\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8559,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/more-sanctions-wouldnt-have-stopped-iran\/","url_meta":{"origin":949,"position":2},"title":"More Sanctions Wouldn’t Have Stopped Iran","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 22, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"But one measure would have. by Bruce S. Thornton \/\/ FrontPage Magazine Critics of President Obama\u2019s recent deal with Iran have rejected the president\u2019s assertion that the only alternative to his deal is war. They think that more aggressive sanctions could have changed Iran\u2019s behavior, given the economic costs the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Iran"","block_context":{"text":"Iran","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/iran\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"iran-nuclear","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/iran-nuclear-500x281.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1090,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/iran-on-the-brink\/","url_meta":{"origin":949,"position":3},"title":"Iran on the Brink","author":"victorhanson","date":"January 11, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce S. Thornton Defining Ideas Just in the last few months, events have hastened to a crisis in Iran\u2019s long confrontation with the West. The ongoing civil war in Syria looks more and more likely to end with the ouster of strongman Bashar al-Assad, one of Tehran\u2019s most stalwart\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Iran"","block_context":{"text":"Iran","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/iran\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3501,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/so-whos-afraid-of-an-iranian-bomb\/","url_meta":{"origin":949,"position":4},"title":"So Who’s Afraid of an Iranian Bomb?","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 29, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services At first glance, it would seem a straightforward thing to stop a relatively weak but volatile Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb. It would also seem to be something a concerned world community would be actively working to do. After all, the Sunni\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "October 2007"","block_context":{"text":"October 2007","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2007\/october-2007\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3729,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/talking-to-iran-moral-and-strategic-mistake\/","url_meta":{"origin":949,"position":5},"title":"Talking to Iran: Moral and Strategic Mistake","author":"victorhanson","date":"December 18, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services One of the many bizarre recommendations in the recently released report from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group is the call to talk with Iran. A formal dialogue with the present Iranian leadership is, for a number of reasons, as misguided as it is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "December 2006"","block_context":{"text":"December 2006","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2006\/december-2006\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/949"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=949"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/949\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":950,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/949\/revisions\/950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}