{"id":9441,"date":"2016-09-08T11:57:18","date_gmt":"2016-09-08T18:57:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=9441"},"modified":"2016-09-08T11:57:18","modified_gmt":"2016-09-08T18:57:18","slug":"the-trump-bump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-trump-bump\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trump Bump"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
By Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online<\/div>\n
\n

No one knows how long Trump can stay on message. (He turns out to be an effective teleprompted speaker who, unlike Obama, can go off the script for brief moments without stuttering and seeming confused.) No one knows how long he can continue to take on taboo topics in different and often innovative ways. No one knows how long Hillary Clinton\u2019s triad of misfortune will persist \u2014 the endless drip, drip, drip scandals of the Clinton Foundation, e-mails, and intelligence negligence, veritable days of disappearance from the campaign, and incoherent messaging that vacillates between promising more of Obama and explicitly promising change from his status quo.<\/p>\n

But right now Clinton\u2019s problem is also one of momentum. Should Trump next week pull close to even in the swing-state polls and do so for 2\u20133 weeks, then some of the missing 15 percent of the Republican establishment will decide to swallow their pride and board the Trump train before it leaves the station. as they ponder the rare possibility in 2017 of a more conservative presidency, Supreme Court, and Congress. It may not be the sort of conservatism that they want, but it\u2019s certainly better than what they were likely to get otherwise.<\/p>\n

At that point, Trump may have an even chance of winning, given that he could replicate Romney\u2019s base, perhaps draw 3\u20135 percent more of the minority vote, pick up another 2\u20133 percent from the so-called alienated Reagan Democrats, and assume that Hillary will not enthuse the Obama base to the same degree as in 2008\/2012.<\/p>\n

Conventional analysis had faulted Trump for having little money, few ads, scant internal polling, nonexistent voter-registration drives and in general wanting in all areas of traditional electioneering. All true, and he certainly needs more of all that and to focus on swing states. But the older Trump is still a product of popular culture in a way Hillary Clinton is not (she has blown hundreds of millions of dollars to achieve a tottering 3-point lead in national polls), and he has an undeniable if often cruel insight into public mood swings and tastes.<\/p>\n

Steven Bannon is often the butt of traditional criticism for his lack of campaign experience, but at this moment that is a plus in some ways. He is no traditional politico and, like Trump, understands both culture and popular tastes far better than past Republican strategists. Seemingly crazy or overt pandering such as the trip to Louisiana, Mexico, and the inner-city incrementally make the case that Hillary Clinton really does not care about people in the elemental sense other than as bloc voters to empower her to redistribute Great Society spoils.<\/p>\n

The Trump campaign\u2019s take-no-prisoners style is a challenge to Hillary to match Trump\u2019s peripatetic energy on the campaign trail\u2014on the premise that her running out the clock style won\u2019t work with daily scandals and a Trump who has stopped gaffing and directing attention to himself. Trump has taken a vicious pounding from the press, in unprecedented fashion, and somehow not lost his cool in a way that everyone thought he would.<\/p>\n

The new Trump team\u2019s achievement is to keep Trump\u2019s mouth out of the news, Hillary\u2019s scandals, health, and confused message in. They have made Trump\u2019s unpredictable outreach professional, courteous, and serious. Hillary Clinton really is not a good speaker, has absolutely no new ideas about dealing with existential problems, cannot keep her fibbing and lying about her fibbing and lying straight, and is \u201clow energy,\u201d but the public does not know all that unless Trump\u2019s ego is harnessed and he is not the news.<\/p>\n

This weird election is really now in flux; the entire Republican party is in flux, and all the old referents are beginning to matter far less.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online No one knows how long Trump can stay on message. (He turns out to be an effective teleprompted speaker who, unlike Obama, can go off the script for brief moments without stuttering and seeming confused.) No one knows how long he can continue to take on taboo […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1092,1091,1090,185],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-2sh","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":9312,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/hillarys-sputtering-campaign\/","url_meta":{"origin":9441,"position":0},"title":"Hillary\u2019s Sputtering Campaign","author":"victorhanson","date":"May 25, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Facing a free-wheeling Trump, she is weighted down by tons of baggage. By Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online This year was supposed to be Hillary Clinton\u2019s \u201cturn,\u201d after her humiliating loss in 2008 to Barack Obama. She has paid her dues as secretary of state for Obama. And\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Trump"","block_context":{"text":"Trump","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/trump\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9445,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/trump-up-hillary-down-obama-out\/","url_meta":{"origin":9441,"position":1},"title":"Trump Up, Hillary Down, Obama Out","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 8, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Without traditional battle lines to fight over, Hillary Clinton is lying low while a frenetic Donald Trump talks nonstop. By Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online In most presidential elections, the two candidates spar over issues. The president campaigns for his party\u2019s nominee in hopes of continuing his legacy.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Trump"","block_context":{"text":"Trump","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/trump\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9570,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-strange-silence-of-bernie-sanders\/","url_meta":{"origin":9441,"position":2},"title":"The Strange Silence of Bernie Sanders","author":"victorhanson","date":"November 2, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"The Corner The one and only. by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review The core of Bernie Sanders\u2019s maverick campaign was \u201cnot business as usual.\u201d For a year he offered a comprehensive critique both of status quo Democratic politics and the corrupt culture of elite Washington in uncompromising fashion. In an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Trump"","block_context":{"text":"Trump","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/trump\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9366,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/a-long-trump-summer\/","url_meta":{"origin":9441,"position":3},"title":"A Long Trump Summer","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 1, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"When have voters faced a choice between two such unpalatable, unprincipled candidates? By Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online Before summer is over, we may see things now scarcely imagined that will make Brexit seem anticlimactic. Trump\u2019s Attack Mode I think the following is an accurate statement: No major\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "UK"","block_context":{"text":"UK","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/uk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10163,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/how-to-blow-an-election-in-five-easy-steps\/","url_meta":{"origin":9441,"position":4},"title":"How to Blow an Election \u2014 in Five Easy Steps","author":"victorhanson","date":"May 9, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"By Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review Counting the ways, and Comey is not among them. Hillary Clinton recently took \u201cfull responsibility\u201d for her 2016 loss. Only she didn\u2019t. Instead of explaining what the historian Thucydides once called the \u201ctruest causes\u201d (aitiai), she went on to list at least three pretexts\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Democrats"","block_context":{"text":"Democrats","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/democrats\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11026,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-real-russian-disaster\/","url_meta":{"origin":9441,"position":5},"title":"The Real Russian Disaster","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 27, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Donald Trump has said a lot of silly stuff about Russia, from joking about Vladimir Putin helping to find Hillary\u2019s deleted emails, to na\u00efve musings about the extent of Russian interference into Western democratic elections. But far more important than what he has said\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Donald Trump"","block_context":{"text":"Donald Trump","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/donald-trump\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9441"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9441"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9441\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9442,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9441\/revisions\/9442"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}