{"id":8266,"date":"2015-03-06T07:58:42","date_gmt":"2015-03-06T15:58:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=8266"},"modified":"2015-03-06T08:01:40","modified_gmt":"2015-03-06T16:01:40","slug":"riding-the-pollercoaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/riding-the-pollercoaster\/","title":{"rendered":"Riding the Pollercoaster"},"content":{"rendered":"
by Victor Davis Hanson\u00a0\/\/ NRO- The Corner<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

\"downloadThough polls employ different scientific methodologies, as a whole they are more often right than wrong. Everyone assumes that sampling public opinion remains an art, and is not immune from the biases of the pollster. Still, how does one explain not just discrepancies, but massive ones, between polls?<\/p>\n

Currently the Rasmussen poll \u2014 once seen as tilting conservative, now believed to lean even more toward liberals \u2014 shows a 49 percent\/49 percent split in public approval of President Obama. But the Reuters\/Ipsos poll \u2014 not known for conservative bias \u2014 records a negative 16 percent gap (39 percent approval\/55 percent disapproval).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

So are President Obama\u2019s recent non-commentary on radical Islam, his vetoes and opposition to Congress, and his defiant use of executive orders restoring his popularity to first-term levels? Are they leading to a dismal and near-record unpopularity? Or are they just irrelevant to his popularity altogether?<\/p>\n

Can experts explain the 16 percentage point difference \u2014 is it Methodological? Ideological? Phraseological? Astrological?<\/p>\n

Is one poll terribly wrong, or are both wrong?<\/p>\n

Is the purpose of today\u2019s pollsters to reflect public opinion or to shape it \u2014 or is it both?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Victor Davis Hanson\u00a0\/\/ NRO- The Corner Though polls employ different scientific methodologies, as a whole they are more often right than wrong. Everyone assumes that sampling public opinion remains an art, and is not immune from the biases of the pollster. Still, how does one explain not just discrepancies, but massive ones, between polls? […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[844,977],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-29k","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":7982,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/losers\/","url_meta":{"origin":8266,"position":0},"title":"Losers","author":"victorhanson","date":"November 6, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ NRO-The Corner 1. Barack Obama is now a toxic brand. Arrogance and incompetence are a fatal brew. If once his problem was his failed policies, now it is also his persona, especially the blame-gaming and sense of boredom on the job that borders on public\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Opinion"","block_context":{"text":"Opinion","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/opinion\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/download-16.jpeg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":7796,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/all-fall-down-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":8266,"position":1},"title":"All Fall Down","author":"victorhanson","date":"August 21, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ NRO-The Corner Consider our dog days of August: An American journalist savagely beheaded on tape, with more promised to come. The Islamic State rampage. The Gaza war and Hamas\u2019s serial truce violations \u2014 and the new neutral U.S. stance with implied disruptions in military support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Opinion"","block_context":{"text":"Opinion","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/opinion\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Page by Antonio Branco - Obama Constitutional Crisis","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/Wrong-590-LI.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":11461,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/could-trump-win-20-percent-of-the-african-american-vote-in-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":8266,"position":2},"title":"Could Trump Win 20 Percent of the African-American Vote in 2020?","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 19, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review The provocative Donald Trump certainly seems to be disliked by a majority of African-American professional athletes, cable-news hosts, academics, and the Congressional Black Caucus. Yet there are subtle but increasing indications that his approval among other African Americans may be reaching historic highs for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Donald Trump"","block_context":{"text":"Donald Trump","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/donald-trump\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11077,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/overlooked-in-putins-reelection-the-kremlins-challenge-is-from-the-left\/","url_meta":{"origin":8266,"position":3},"title":"Overlooked in Putin’s Reelection: The Kremlin’s Challenge Is From The Left","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 23, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Please read a new essay by my Hoover colleague, Paul Gregory. Paul Gregory \/\/ Forbes Vladimir Putin has destroyed his liberal-democratic opposition led by Alexei Navalny and the late Boris Nemtsov through repression. The March 2018 election reveals that danger to the Putin regime comes from a communist left reconstituted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Paul Gregory"","block_context":{"text":"Paul Gregory","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/paul-gregory\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11467,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wolves-in-wolves-clothing\/","url_meta":{"origin":8266,"position":4},"title":"Wolves in Wolves’ Clothing","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 22, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ American Greatness If the New Democratic Party was smart, it would do what the old Democratic Party did long ago: always sound centrist if not conservative in the last weeks of a campaign, get elected, then revert to form and pursue a left-wing agenda for a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Democrats"","block_context":{"text":"Democrats","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/democrats\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12218,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/trumps-chances-for-reelection-are-looking-better-and-better\/","url_meta":{"origin":8266,"position":5},"title":"Trump\u2019s Chances for Reelection Are Looking Better and Better","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 27, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Donald Trump\u00a0has at least five strong historical arguments for his reelection. One, he is an incumbent. Incumbent presidents have won 14 of 19 reelection bids since 1900. The few who lost did not enjoy positive approval ratings. In a Gallup poll from earlier this\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8266"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8266"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8266\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8270,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8266\/revisions\/8270"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}