{"id":7848,"date":"2014-09-11T06:33:32","date_gmt":"2014-09-11T13:33:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=7848"},"modified":"2014-09-11T06:33:32","modified_gmt":"2014-09-11T13:33:32","slug":"the-middle-easts-maze-of-alliances","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-middle-easts-maze-of-alliances\/","title":{"rendered":"The Middle East\u2019s Maze of Alliances"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s increasingly difficult to navigate the web of transitory enemies and allies in the region.<\/span><\/em><\/h3>\n
by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online<\/a><\/p>\n
\n
\"Photo
Photo via NRO<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

T<\/span>ry figuring out the maze of enemies, allies, and neutrals in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

In 2012, the Obama administration was on the verge of bombing the forces of Syrian president Bashar Assad. For a few weeks, he was public enemy No. 1 because he had used chemical weapons on his own people and because he was responsible for many of the deaths in the Syrian civil war, with a casualty count that is now close to 200,000.<\/p>\n

After Obama\u2019s red lines turned pink, we forgot about Syria. Then the Islamic State showed up with beheadings, crucifixions, rapes, and mass murders through a huge swath of Iraq and Syria.<\/p>\n

Now the United States is bombing the Islamic State. Sometimes Obama says that he is still seeking a strategy against the jihadist group. Sometimes he wants to reduce it to a manageable problem. And sometimes he says that he wants to degrade or even destroy it.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The Islamic State is still trying to overthrow Assad. If the Obama administration is now bombing the Islamic State, is it then helping Assad? Or when America did not bomb Assad, did it help the Islamic State? Which of the two should Obama bomb \u2014 or both, or neither?<\/p>\n

Iran is steadily on the way to acquiring a nuclear bomb. Yet for now it is arming the Kurds, dependable U.S. allies in the region who are fighting for their lives against the Islamic State and need American help. As Iran aids the Kurds, Syrians, and Iraqis in the battle against the evil Islamic State, is Teheran becoming a friend, enemy, or neither? Will Iran\u2019s temporary help mean that it will delay or hasten its efforts to get a bomb? Just as Iran sent help to the Kurds, it missed yet another U.N. deadline to come clean on nuclear enrichment.<\/p>\n

Hamas just lost a war in Gaza against Israel. Then it began executing and maiming a number of its own people, some of them affiliated with Fatah, the ruling clique of the Palestinian Authority. During the war, Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian state, stayed neutral and called for calm. Did he wish Israel to destroy his rival, Hamas? Or did he wish Hamas to hurt his archenemy, Israel? Both? Neither?<\/p>\n

What about the Gulf sheikdoms? In the old days, America was enraged that some of the Saudis slyly funneled cash to al-Qaeda and yet relieved that the Saudi government was deemed moderate and pro-Western. But as Iran gets closer to its nuclear holy grail, the Gulf kingdoms now seem to be in a de facto alliance with their hated adversary, Israel. Both Sunni monarchies and the Jewish state in near lockstep oppose the radical Iran\/Syria\/Hezbollah\/Muslim Brotherhood\/Hamas axis.<\/p>\n

But don\u2019t look for understandable Shiite\u2013Sunni Muslim fault lines. In this anti-Saudi alliance, the Iranians and Hezbollah are Shiites. Yet their allies, the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, are Sunnis. The Syrian government is neither, being Alawite.<\/p>\n

They all say they are against the Sunni-extremist Islamic State. So if they are enemies of the Sunni monarchies and enemies of the Islamic State, is the Islamic State then a friend to these Gulf shiekdoms?<\/p>\n

Then there is Qatar, a Sunni Gulf monarchy at odds with all the other neighboring Sunni monarchies. It is sort of friendly with the Iranians, Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah and Hamas \u2014 all adversaries of the U.S. Why, then, is Qatar the host of CENTCOM, the biggest American military base in the entire Middle East?<\/p>\n

Is Egypt any simpler? During the Arab Spring, the Obama administration helped to ease former president and kleptocrat Hosni Mubarak out of power. Then it supported both the democratic elections and the radical Muslim Brotherhood that won them. Later, the administration said little when a military junta displaced the radical Muslim Brotherhood, which was subverting the new constitution. America was against military strongmen before it was for them, and for Islamists before it was against them.<\/p>\n

President Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Recep Erdogan were said to have a special friendship. But based on what? Erdogan is strangling democracy in Turkey. He is a big supporter of Hamas and at times a fan of Iran. A NATO ally, Turkey recently refused to let U.S. rescue teams use its territory to stage a rescue mission of American hostages \u2014 two of them eventually beheaded \u2014 in Syria.<\/p>\n

Ostensibly, America supports moderate pro-Western consensual governments that protect human rights and hold elections, or at least do not oppress their own. But there are almost no such nations in the Middle East except Israel. Yet the Obama administration has grown ever more distant from the Jewish state over the last six years.<\/p>\n

What is the U.S. to do? Leave the Middle East alone, allowing terrorists to build a petrol-fueled staging base for another 9\/11?<\/p>\n

About the best choice is to support without qualification the only two pro-American and constitutional groups in the Middle East, the Israelis and Kurds.<\/p>\n

Otherwise, in such a tribal quagmire, apparently there are only transitory interests that come and go.<\/p>\n

\u00a9 2014 Tribune Media Services, Inc.<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s increasingly difficult to navigate the web of transitory enemies and allies in the region. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online Try figuring out the maze of enemies, allies, and neutrals in the Middle East. In 2012, the Obama administration was on the verge of bombing the forces of Syrian president Bashar Assad. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[28,225,59,167,46,196],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-22A","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":7874,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/where-is-obamas-broad-coalition\/","url_meta":{"origin":7848,"position":0},"title":"Where Is Obama\u2019s \u2018Broad Coalition\u2019?","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 18, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Potential allies against ISIS doubt America\u2019s commitment to being engaged abroad. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online The so-called Islamic State has left destruction everywhere that it has gained ground. 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