{"id":7301,"date":"2014-05-08T10:16:06","date_gmt":"2014-05-08T17:16:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=7301"},"modified":"2014-05-08T10:16:06","modified_gmt":"2014-05-08T17:16:06","slug":"what-drives-vladimir-putin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/what-drives-vladimir-putin\/","title":{"rendered":"What Drives Vladimir Putin?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Aggressors often attack weaker neighbors to restore a sense of pride.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n

by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online\u00a0<\/i><\/a><\/p>\n

V<\/span>ladimir Putin\u2019s Russia is a disaster of a declining population, corruption, authoritarianism, a warped economy, and a high rate of alcoholism.<\/p>\n

\"Photo
Photo by: www.kremlin.ru.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Why, then, would Putin want to ruin additional territory in Crimea and Ukraine the way that he has wrecked most of Russia?<\/p>\n

\n
\u00a0Doesn\u2019t Russia have enough land for its diminishing population? Are there not enough minerals, timber, gas, and oil for Putin\u2019s kleptocrats?<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

In the modern age, especially since Karl Marx, we rationalize the causes of wars as understandable fights over real things, like access to ports, oil fields, good farmland, and the like. Yet in the last 2,500 years of Western history, nations have just as often invaded and attacked each other for intangibles. The historian Thucydides wrote that the classical Athenians had won and kept their empire mostly out of \u201cfear, honor, and self-interest.\u201d<\/p>\n

Maybe that was why most battles in ancient Greece broke out over rocky and mountainous borderlands. Possession of these largely worthless corridors did not add to the material riches of the Spartans, Thebans, or Athenians. But dying for such victories did wonders for their national pride and collective sense of self.<\/p>\n

Why did the Argentine dictatorship invade the British Falkland Islands in 1982? The great Argentine writer Jorge Luis Borges dismissed the entire Argentine\u2013British dispute over the isolated, windswept rocks as a pathetic fight between \u201ctwo bald men over a comb.\u201d<\/p>\n

Taking the \u201cMalvinas\u201d apparently was critical to restoring the Argentine dictatorship\u2019s lost pride. In contrast, the descendants of Lord Nelson were not about to allow a few peacock generals to insult the honor of the British Royal Navy.<\/p>\n

Doesn\u2019t China have enough land without starting a beef with Japan over the uninhabited Senkaku Islands? While there may be some oil in the vicinity, apparently both sides see these desolate mountainous islets as symbols of more important issues of national prestige and will. Lose the Senkaku Islands and what larger island goes next?<\/p>\n

Saddam Hussein had enough land without invading Iran in 1980. But his impoverished Iraqis grew terrified of revolutionary Shiite Iran and he lashed out. Iraq also had enough oil without taking Kuwait in 1990. But occupying it made Iraqis proud at home and feared in the Middle East neighborhood.<\/p>\n

The Obama administration has tried to psychoanalyze Putin as lashing out because of weakness. Or he is supposedly an unruly kid cutting up at the back of the classroom. Or he is acting out a tough-guy \u201cshtick,\u201d as President Obama put it.<\/p>\n

Maybe. But it would be wiser to review the historical causes of war, especially why conflicts break out. Aggressors often attack their weaker neighbors to restore a sense of pride. They calibrate self-interest not so much in getting more stuff as winning greater honor, feeling safer, and instilling more fear.<\/p>\n

Bullies such as imperial Persia, Napoleonic France, imperial Germany, Hitler\u2019s Third Reich, and Stalin\u2019s Soviet Union did not really believe that their peoples would starve without annexing someone else\u2019s lands. Despite their pretexts, these empires all privately knew that they had sufficient living space.<\/p>\n

These autocracies acted out emotionally satisfying ideas such as crushing an upstart weak Greece, or extending French culture across Europe, or reminding European states that the proud German\u00a0Volk\u00a0<\/em>was as superior as it was underappreciated, or reassuring Russians that the New Soviet Man was at last safe, respected, and feared abroad.<\/p>\n

Just as important, history\u2019s aggressors embraced their fears and sense of honor because they thought they could get away with doing so scot-free \u2014 given the perceived loss of deterrence.<\/p>\n

Putin, like Hitler in 1939, may be weak in geostrategic terms. But as long as he does not provoke an American and European collective response, he can assume that Russia is far stronger than any one of his next targets.<\/p>\n

Like Hitler, Putin does not know exactly which future aggressive act will prompt an American and European reaction. But until then, he is willing to continue gambling that he can restore some more of the lost empire of the czars and commissars \u2014 and with it more Russian honor, influence, and pride \u2014 without consequences.<\/p>\n

If history is any guide, these emotions are driving Putin to grab things that are not his. Putin acts now because in the era of failed reset diplomacy and recent empty American deadlines, red lines, and step-over lines, he feels the old U.S. deterrent is absent or dormant. And he will keep up his aggression until he senses that the increasing risks no longer warrant the diminishing returns of absorbing his neighbors.<\/p>\n

We should stop trying to psychoanalyze Putin, arguing that he is really weak or is an adolescent showing off his machismo \u2014 much less that he has legitimate grievances.<\/p>\n

Instead, Putin believes that the more he grabs from others, the prouder his otherwise-downtrodden citizens will become, the more respect they will earn abroad, and the less likely others will fool with him.<\/p>\n

Until that is no longer true, Putin will continue.<\/p>\n

Victor Davis Hanson is a classicist and historian at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and the author, most recently, of<\/em>\u00a0The Savior Generals<\/a>.<\/em>\u00a0You can reach him by e-mailing\u00a0author@victorhanson.com<\/a>. <\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a9 2014 Tribune Media Services, Inc.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Aggressors often attack weaker neighbors to restore a sense of pride.\u00a0 by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online\u00a0 Vladimir Putin\u2019s Russia is a disaster of a declining population, corruption, authoritarianism, a warped economy, and a high rate of alcoholism. Why, then, would Putin want to ruin additional territory in Crimea and Ukraine the way […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[375],"tags":[106,635,1049,1074,424],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-1TL","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12716,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/a-new-putin-worse-than-the-old-putin\/","url_meta":{"origin":7301,"position":0},"title":"A new Putin worse than the old Putin?","author":"victorhanson","date":"November 12, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"An article by my Hoover colleague Dr. Paul Gregory in The Hill Vladimir Putin\u00a0is mortal. Russia, sooner or later, will have to navigate the transition from his 20-plus years of rule to someone else. It now appears that \u201csometime\u201d could come as early as January 2021, if ill-health\u00a0rumors denied by\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12795,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/russias-putin-and-navalny-collide-who-will-survive\/","url_meta":{"origin":7301,"position":1},"title":"Russia’s Putin and Navalny collide; who will survive?","author":"victorhanson","date":"January 20, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"An article by my Hoover colleague Dr. Paul Gregory in The Hill To understand the events of Russian dissident\u00a0Aleksei Navalny\u2019s near-fatal poisoning and his Jan. 17 return to Russia, you must know that there are two Navalnys: Navalny No. 1 is described by Kremlin-controlled media as a CIA agent, corrupt,\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11821,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/is-russia-preparing-a-gas-nuclear-option\/","url_meta":{"origin":7301,"position":2},"title":"Is Russia Preparing A Gas Nuclear Option?","author":"victorhanson","date":"May 14, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Please read this piece by my colleague Paul Roderick Gregory published\u00a0by\u00a0Forbes Vladimir Putin is noted for taking surprise action, which confronts his victims with a fait accompli. They must then either accept the new unfavorable status quo or react in a way that they would consider too risky. Putin has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Russia"","block_context":{"text":"Russia","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/europe\/russia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12105,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/a-russian-under-every-bed\/","url_meta":{"origin":7301,"position":3},"title":"A Russian Under Every Bed","author":"victorhanson","date":"December 19, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review The three-year-long effort to abort the Trump presidency \u2014 now culminating with a manipulated impeachment effort \u2014 has warped U.S. foreign policy toward Russia. From 2009 to 2014, the Obama administration\u2019s official policy (\u201creset\u201d) was appeasement of Vladimir Putin\u2019s autocratic Russia. Obama and Secretary\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8716,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/dont-trust-putin-in-the-mideast\/","url_meta":{"origin":7301,"position":4},"title":"Don\u2019t Trust Putin in the Mideast","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 8, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\u00a0\/\/ National Review Online Contrary to the principles of American foreign policy of the last 70 years, President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry tacitly invited Russia to \u201chelp\u201d monitor things in the Middle East. Now they are learning that there are lots of Middle\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Russia"","block_context":{"text":"Russia","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/europe\/russia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"(Mikhail Klimentiev\/Pressphotos\/Getty)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/vladimir-putin-coalition-r-500x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":10457,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/why-does-the-left-suddenly-hate-russia\/","url_meta":{"origin":7301,"position":5},"title":"Why Does the Left Suddenly Hate Russia?","author":"victorhanson","date":"August 8, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson National Review After 70 years of accommodating and appeasing Russia, Democrats suddenly foment a red scare. Russian Realism? No one doubts that Vladimir Putin\u2019s Russia is no ally of the U.S. But rivalry is quite a different notion than returning to the Cold War, when enemies\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Media"","block_context":{"text":"Media","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/media\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7301"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7301"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7301\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7304,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7301\/revisions\/7304"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}