{"id":7069,"date":"2014-03-03T10:35:33","date_gmt":"2014-03-03T18:35:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=7069"},"modified":"2014-03-03T10:35:33","modified_gmt":"2014-03-03T18:35:33","slug":"the-stepping-stones-to-the-ukraine-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-stepping-stones-to-the-ukraine-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"The Stepping Stones to the Ukraine Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ NRO’s The Corner<\/a>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Each step to the present Ukrainian predicament was in and of itself hardly earth-shattering\u00a0and was sort of framed by Obama\u2019s open-mic assurance to Medvedev to tell Vladimir that he would more flexible after the election.<\/p>\n

\"Limbic
Limbic viz Flickr<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Indeed, Obama, as is his wont, always had mellifluous and sophistic arguments for why we had to take every soldier out of Iraq after the successful surge; why we needed to drop missile defense with the Poles and Czechs; why we needed both a surge and simultaneous deadline to end the surge in Afghanistan; why we first issued serial deadlines to Iran to ask them to please stop proliferation, then just quit the sanctions altogether just as they started to work; why we needed to \u201clead from behind\u201d in Libya; why the Muslim Brotherhood was largely secular and legitimate and then later not so much so; why we issued redlines and bragged about Putin\u2019s \u201chelp\u201d to eliminate WMD in Syria, and were going to bomb and then not bomb and then maybe bomb; why we kept pressuring Israel; why we cozied up to an increasingly dictatorial Turkey; why we reached out to Cuba and Venezuela; and why we sometimes embarrassed old allies like Britain, Canada, and Israel.<\/p>\n

Amid such a landscape of deadlines begetting redlines begetting step-over lines always came the unfortunate pontificating \u2014 the Cairo mytho-history speech, the adolescent so-called apology tour, the sermon about \u201cexceptionalism,\u201d \u2014 and also the dressing down delivered to a mute Obama by a pompous Daniel Ortega, the bows and hugs, and Obama\u2019s constant apologies for past American sins. Again all this was trivial \u2014 and yet in aggregate not so trivial for the lidless eye of a Putin.<\/p>\n

Amid both the deeds and the facts came the serial $1 trillion annual deficits, the surge in borrowing for redistributionist payouts, the monetary expansion and zero-interest rates, and finally the vast cuts in the military budget, all of which fleshed out the caricature of a newly isolationist and self-indulgent America, eager to talk, bluster, or threaten its way out of its traditional postwar leadership role.<\/p>\n

Again, each incident in and of itself was of little import. None were the stuff of crises. But incrementally all these tiny tesserae began forming a mosaic, fairly or not, of the Obama administration as either weak or clueless or perhaps both.<\/p>\n

Accordingly, Mr. Putin, in empirical fashion, after factoring in the rhetoric and the facts, has decided that it is time, in the fashion of 1979\u201380, to move with probable impunity. Others are, of course, watching what Obama derides as Cold War chess games. Should Iran now go full bore on its nuclear program? Should China test Japanese waters and airspace a bit more aggressively? Should North Korea try to gain new concessions from its nuclear lunacy? Should the failed Communists of Latin America try forcibly exporting their miseries to neighbors? And all are operating on the shared assumption that the American reaction will be another \u201coutrageous,\u201d \u201cunacceptable,\u201d \u201cdon\u2019t cross this line,\u201d or another solemn Kerry lecture about the existential threats of global warming.<\/p>\n

For some, like the now furrow-browed Europeans who once giddily lapped up the Victory Column pabulum, there is irony. For the Baltic states, Georgians, the Persian Gulf sheikdoms, the Japanese, the Taiwanese, and the South Koreans, there is increased anxiety about regional strains of Putanism spreading to their own backyards. And among our allies such as the British, Israelis, Canadians, and Australians, there is still polite bewilderment.<\/p>\n

This will probably end in either two ways : Either Barack Obama will have his 1980 Jimmy Carter revelatory moment as something like an \u201cObama Doctrine,\u201d or we could see some pretty scary things in the next three years as regional thugs cash in their chips and begin readjusting the map in their areas of would-be influence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ NRO’s The Corner\u00a0 Each step to the present Ukrainian predicament was in and of itself hardly earth-shattering\u00a0and was sort of framed by Obama\u2019s open-mic assurance to Medvedev to tell Vladimir that he would more flexible after the election. Indeed, Obama, as is his wont, always had mellifluous and sophistic arguments […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[929,196],"tags":[12,1049,442,1048,930,1074,1041,67,424,76],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-1Q1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":7566,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/war-was-interested-in-obama\/","url_meta":{"origin":7069,"position":0},"title":"War Was Interested in Obama","author":"victorhanson","date":"June 16, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ PJMedia\u00a0 Leon Trotsky probably did not quite write the legendary aphorism that \u201cyou may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.\u201d But whoever did, you get the point that no nation can always pick and choose when it wishes to be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "The World"","block_context":{"text":"The World","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"obama_trotsky_6-15-14-1","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cdn.pjmedia.com\/victordavishanson\/files\/2014\/06\/obama_trotsky_6-15-14-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":7088,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/a-modest-proposal-on-ukraine\/","url_meta":{"origin":7069,"position":1},"title":"A Modest Proposal on Ukraine","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 6, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/\u00a0NRO's the Corner\u00a0 Of all the advice to Obama to reverse his brand of Carterism, the best might simply be to shut his eyes, and every time he gets angry and is about to say something about Israel, stop, and think first to substitute the reset\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ukraine"","block_context":{"text":"Ukraine","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/europe\/ukraine\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7402,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/victor-davis-hanson-on-the-bill-martinez-show-2710-51414\/","url_meta":{"origin":7069,"position":2},"title":"Victor Davis Hanson on the Bill Martinez Show (VDH interview begins at 27:10)","author":"victorhanson","date":"May 15, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Click Here to Listen to the Interview now!\u00a0 VDH interview begins at 27:10 (Begins again after the break at 41:30) VDH\u00a0discusses his article\u00a0What Drives Vladimir Putin? He also discusses his latest article\u00a0Tweets Won\u2019t Stop Modern Barbarians\u00a0","rel":"","context":"In "Russia"","block_context":{"text":"Russia","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/europe\/russia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/billmartinez.jpeg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":8227,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/our-dangerous-historical-moment\/","url_meta":{"origin":7069,"position":3},"title":"Our Dangerous Historical Moment","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 19, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Obama and European leaders are repeating the mistakes of their 1930s predecessors. by Victor Davis Hanson\u00a0\/\/ National Review Online\u00a0 World War II was the most destructive war in history. What caused it? The panic from the ongoing and worldwide Depression in the 1930s had empowered extremist movements the world over.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ukraine"","block_context":{"text":"Ukraine","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/europe\/ukraine\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/pic_giant_021915_SM_ISIS-Putin-Iran-500x292.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":7058,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ukraine-and-our-useless-outrage\/","url_meta":{"origin":7069,"position":4},"title":"Ukraine and Our Useless Outrage","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 27, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"The history of Obama's foreign-policy posturing bodes ill for the future of Ukraine. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/\u00a0National Review Online\u00a0 Don\u2019t step over the line and re-militarize the Rhineland. Absorbing Austria would cross a red line. Breaking up Czechoslovakia is unacceptable. Get out of Poland by the announced deadline. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ukraine"","block_context":{"text":"Ukraine","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/europe\/ukraine\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/Viktor_Yanukovych_27_April_2010-1-217x300.jpeg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":7724,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-cost-of-american-indifference\/","url_meta":{"origin":7069,"position":5},"title":"The Cost of American Indifference","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 31, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"By continually taking the path of least short-term trouble, the U.S. ensures long-term hardship. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online The Obama administration often either denies any responsibility for the current global chaos or claims that it erupted spontaneously. Yet most of the mess was caused by, or\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "The World"","block_context":{"text":"The World","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7069"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7069"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7069\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7071,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7069\/revisions\/7071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}