by Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n
PJ Media<\/em><\/p>\n I\u00a0have a confession to make: I don\u2019t quite understand the jubilation among the conservative-Republican forces during the last two months of the Obama crack-up, and here, unfortunately, is why:<\/p>\n 1.\u00a0The so-called Obama crash<\/em>. I believe that Obamism \u2014\u00a041 months over 8% plus unemployment<\/a>\u00a0[1], anemic GDP growth, serial $1 trillion deficits, unsustainable rates of new aggregate debt, the takeover of healthcare, record numbers on unemployment insurance and food stamps \u2014 is not only strangling the country, but in the long run will be seen as such by most Americans. Obama is incoherent \u2014 castigating the Supreme Court\u2019s right to overturn a law, then himself suing to overturn state laws, while simply ignoring federal laws. Abroad, even his supporters\u00a0cannot claim the Russian reset was a success<\/a>[2]. What was so hard about supporting the Iranian dissidents in the spring 2009 demonstrations, or expressing support for secular democratic movements in the Middle East rather than praising the Muslim Brotherhood? Why treat Israel or Canada worse than Turkey? And was it worth the administration chest thump to risk the security of the United States\u00a0by leaking classified information<\/a>[3] about Predators, the cyber war against Iran, the Yemeni agent, and the bin Laden raid?<\/p>\n But all that mess is not to say that in the here and now Obama cannot cobble together a 51% majority to win the election. He figures that he can by appeals to gays (gay marriage<\/a>\u00a0[4]), those on entitlements (nearly fifty million\u00a0are now on food stamps<\/a>\u00a0[5]; 50% are paying no income tax or are on some sort of entitlement \u2014 or both), the greens (Keystone), the Latinos (de facto<\/em>\u00a0amnesty), feminists (\u201cwar on women\u201d), the (fill in the blanks), etc.<\/p>\n Review Obama\u2019s bad news of the last 90 days:\u00a0the Scott Walker victory<\/a>\u00a0[6], the Obama gaffes (the private sector\u00a0is doing \u201cfine\u201d<\/a>\u00a0[7]), the Democratic defections (whether senators and representatives\u00a0bailing from the convention<\/a>[8] or smackdowns on Bain Capital\u00a0from Cory Booker<\/a>\u00a0[9], Bill Clinton, etc.), the Holder mess, the circumvention of Congress by\u00a0de facto<\/em>\u00a0amnesty, the non-ending scandals (Solyndra,\u00a0Fast and Furious<\/a>\u00a0[10], GSA, Secret Service, etc.), the Putin\/Merkel put-down, our new Muslim Brotherhood friend and ally running Egypt, the supposed shortfall in campaign donations, etc. Yet this weekend Obama remains up in the polls and ahead in key swing states. If these \u201cbad\u201d weeks have led to his rise in the polls, what might good weeks do?<\/p>\n Sometimes when I watch Fox News, listen to talk radio, or read the blogs, I fear too many are in a strange bubble: the Obama embarrassments are tallied, his crashing defeat predicted \u2014 but no one seems to say, \u201cBut hey, he is still after all that ahead in the polls!\u201d And to the extent someone might point to polling, he is met with \u201cBut the polls are biased!\u201d Perhaps they are by 3-4 points. But right now, given the power of incumbency, the changing nature of the US, and the no-holds-barred methods of Barack Obama, the advantage is still all Obama\u2019s \u2014 and almost all the polls show that. And we should remember that fact rather than be told simply how bad Obama is.<\/p>\n 2.\u00a0The Supreme Court<\/em>. I have read all the exegeses of why Justice Roberts voted to tip the court in favor of upholding Obamacare. I do not here care to comment on the case other than to note that the most radical piece of social legislation since the Great Society is now the law of the land. It may prove a boomerang in November; there may be some clever means to detect in Roberts\u2019 decision a path for upholding judicial conservatism. In fact, there may be all sorts of hidden good news. But for now, the decision is a huge victory for Barack Obama \u2014 how can it be any other?<\/p>\n Other depressing notes: the Court is now 4 liberals, 2 swings, and 3 conservatives. Is this really the age of a conservative Supreme Court? But more importantly, the elite culture in the New York-Washington corridor is a force multiplier. It defines liberal blinkered orthodoxy on the Court as \u201copen-minded\u201d and \u201cmoderately liberal\u201d in contrast to conservative orthodoxy that is \u201creactionary\u201d and \u201cclosed-minded.\u201d In other words, there is always more pressure on a conservative than a liberal to be thought sober and judicious by joining the other side. A liberal justice joining the conservative side almost never happens. Because of the great decision of our age, Justice Roberts will be revered by the media-academia-arts-government nexus as the new Earl Warren, even as conservatives rightly respect his right of independent judicial review. And, as Roberts knew, had he voted otherwise to reject Obamacare, he would now be reviled by the Left in the manner of Robert Bork, while, without fanfare, being simply acknowledged as a fair and circumspect judge by conservatives.<\/p>\n 3.\u00a0Obamacare<\/em>. Obamacare is a disaster. Imagine DMV supervisors, TSA employees, someone like an Eric Holder running the show, and taking a number at the emergency room, and you have the formula of dealing with your rendezvous with a tumor or heart attack. Most Americans don\u2019t want it. But be prepared: we will hear that if it were not for courageous Barack Obama and Justice Roberts, then conservatives would have taken 25-year-old Johnny off his parents\u2019 plan and thrown him in the street, or denied all treatment to Linda with breast cancer \u2014 as if neither could find healthcare without a massive government bureaucracy. Remember again: this was a plan that was sold as a mandate,\u00a0not a tax<\/a>\u00a0[11]; then argued by the administration before the Supreme Court\u00a0as a tax<\/a>\u00a0[12]; then found constitutional on the basis that it was a tax; and now defended on the basis that it is suddenly once again\u00a0not a tax<\/a>\u00a0[13]. Adolescents, not the president of the United States, make it up as they go along \u2014 mandate, tax, penalty, fee, etc.<\/p>\n 4.\u00a0The Arizona decision<\/em>. How is the court rejection of the Arizona law good news? Yes, I know they upheld the right to ask for proper ID when there is good suspicion of a possible crime, but that is merely a reflection that what thirty years ago was a common-sense given is now considered a landmark breakthrough.<\/p>\n Factor in the president\u2019s circumvention of Congress to grant\u00a0de facto<\/em>\u00a0election-year amnesty to about a million illegal aliens, and examine where we are: it is illegal for a state to try to enhance federal immigration law enforcement, but it is still apparently legal for a municipality to declare itself immune from federal immigration law by granting sanctuary to illegal aliens. Arizona \u201cbroke\u201d the law by trying to enforce it; the president did not break the law by trying to circumvent it. The former passed a law through a majority vote, the latter shredded it by fiat. In some sense, there is no federal immigration law anymore \u2014 only what Barack Obama on any given day determines is politically expedient to enforce or not enforce. If one million can be exempted today by presidential decree, why not five million next year and another six the year after? The Arizona border or Parlier is a long way from Martha\u2019s Vineyard and Sidwell Friends.<\/p>\n 5.\u00a0Fast and Furious<\/em>. The Republicans may find themselves pursuing the moral and ethical high ground right into a political quagmire, reminiscent of once trying to convince the American people that a sitting president cannot lie under oath with impunity, even as the country sided with Bill Clinton without worry that he had been serviced in the Oval Office by his own in-house intern.<\/p>\n From the little that we know, Eric Holder at best knowingly presented false information to a congressional committee, and at worst also oversaw a hare-brained scheme that led to several deaths (among them one and maybe two Americans) and whose ultimate objective is still unclear \u2014 and did so as the chief law enforcement officer of the nation. If that stands, in some sense we are then reduced to a banana republic. That said, the Holder mess, in the campaign sense, may divert attention from the economy, will likely not proceed to any further action against Holder or new releases of documents until after the election, and allows Holder once again to play the race card. Unless something dramatic happens, the contempt vote will either not help the Republicans or likely distract them from the economy. That is not a reason to stop now, but only a warning once more of the long road ahead.<\/p>\n 6.\u00a0The Obama crises<\/em>. We hear of defections in the black community. Does that mean from a 97% majority down to a 95.5% margin? The Latino community is unhappy? Does that translate into a lost 3% from 2008? Is he short of cash? Does that mean Obama will not quite reach $1 billion until late October? Given that Obama has polarized the country, the fact that purple-state Democrats up for reelection don\u2019t want to be seen with Obama is understandable, but not necessarily a barometer of what Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and Virginia will do on Election Day.<\/p>\n What Does It All Mean?<\/strong><\/p>\n None of us know what November brings. We all imagine the race will be far closer than 2008. We worry that eight years of this administration will institutionalize what we saw during the first four years. That said, every person worried about the direction of the country will have to vote, donate time or money, or offer public or private commentary. We are going to see things in September and October that we have not quite seen before in an election, as our modern Borgia pulls out all the stops to do whatever is necessary to win.<\/p>\n We have a president who was not truthful about his prior associates and pastor,raising taxes<\/a>\u00a0[14], the Bush-Cheney protocols he once demonized, and promises to follow the law. The law now is followed largely to the degree that it is judged most progressive for most people. On a mundane level, a president is up for reelection who, by common assent, made up almost all the key details in his own memoir,\u00a0claimed on his own bio<\/a>\u00a0[15] that he was born in Kenya, jokes with his middle finger on his chin, laughs about Predator assassination drones protecting his daughters, offers a double-entendre about a sex act with his wife, and links \u201cBFD\u201d T-shirts to his website. From the fundamental to the ridiculous, Obama is\u00a0sui generis<\/em>. After all, we have a man of the people in the White House who has set presidential records for golf outings and fat-cat fundraisers, while running on them\/us class warfare \u2014 to the delight of 50% of the country.<\/p>\n Against all that, rationalizing recent conservative defeats is surely no way to learn from them \u2014 and learn from them we must.<\/p>\n URLs in this post: \u00a92012 Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" by Victor Davis Hanson PJ Media I\u00a0have a confession to make: I don\u2019t quite understand the jubilation among the conservative-Republican forces during the last two months of the Obama crack-up, and here, unfortunately, is why:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[247,96],"tags":[12,1026,105,279,1044,40,1042,277,1052],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-aC","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":742,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-face-of-things-to-come\/","url_meta":{"origin":658,"position":0},"title":"The Face of Things to Come","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 20, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson NRO's\u00a0The Corner Campaign Rhetoric The campaign contour is pretty clear: The Obama reelection team will not make the case for the advantages and popularity of Obamacare, for the Chuian advantages of $4-a-gallon gas, for the dynamism of a 1.7 percent GDP growth rate, for the stimulatory\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Election 2012"","block_context":{"text":"Election 2012","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/obama-administration\/election-2012\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":454,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/let-bush-be\/","url_meta":{"origin":658,"position":1},"title":"Let Bush Be","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 19, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services The theme of the president's 2012 re-election campaign is that George W. Bush left such a terrible mess that Barack Obama could hardly be expected to clean it up in four years. In other words, 43 months of unemployment rates above 8 percent,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Punditry"","block_context":{"text":"Punditry","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/opinion\/punditry\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":536,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/100-days-is-a-long-time\/","url_meta":{"origin":658,"position":2},"title":"100 Days Is a Long Time","author":"victorhanson","date":"August 6, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services The presidential election is less than a hundred days away. President Obama and Mitt Romney are roughly even in the various polls, with Obama holding slight leads in the key swing states. A lot can happen in a hundred days. Napoleon went from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Election 2012"","block_context":{"text":"Election 2012","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/obama-administration\/election-2012\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":830,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/campaigning-on-grievances\/","url_meta":{"origin":658,"position":3},"title":"Campaigning on Grievances","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 17, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services In 2008, a mostly unknown Barack Obama ran for president on an inclusive agenda of \u201chope and change.\u201d That upbeat message was supposed to translate into millions of green jobs, fiscal sobriety, universal healthcare, a resetting of Bush foreign policy, and racial unity.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Campaign 2012"","block_context":{"text":"Campaign 2012","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/obama-administration\/campaign-2012\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":467,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/obama-the-hare-romney-the-tortoise\/","url_meta":{"origin":658,"position":4},"title":"Obama the Hare, Romney the Tortoise","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 10, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services The 2012 race has turned into one of Aesop's classic fables. After each new media blitz against the no-frills Mitt Romney, a far cooler President Obama races ahead three or four points in the polls \u2014 only to fall back to about even\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Election 2012"","block_context":{"text":"Election 2012","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/obama-administration\/election-2012\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":649,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/what-romney-needs-to-do\/","url_meta":{"origin":658,"position":5},"title":"What Romney Needs to Do","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 13, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online About half the country disapproves of the job the president is doing. Most Americans think he has not handled the economy well. Yet a majority also believe that the tough times are still George W. Bush\u2019s legacy, and, further, that Mitt Romney would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Election 2012"","block_context":{"text":"Election 2012","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/obama-administration\/election-2012\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/658"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=658"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/658\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":660,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/658\/revisions\/660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n
\n[1] 41 months over 8% plus unemployment:http:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/corner\/303196\/no-wonder-president-did-not-take-questions-about-immigration-victor-davis-hanson<\/a>
\n[2] cannot claim the Russian reset was a success:http:\/\/cdn.pjmedia.com\/blog\/gop-finally-confronts-obamas-russian-reset-failure\/<\/a>
\n[3] by leaking classified information:http:\/\/cdn.pjmedia.com\/victordavishanson\/the-scandal-of-our-age\/<\/a>
\n[4] gay marriage:\u00a0http:\/\/cdn.pjmedia.com\/eddriscoll\/2012\/05\/13\/our-first-gay-president\/<\/a>
\n[5] are now on food stamps:http:\/\/cdn.pjmedia.com\/eddriscoll\/2012\/06\/26\/reality-versus-cnn\/<\/a>
\n[6] the Scott Walker victory:\u00a0http:\/\/blogs.the-american-interest.com\/wrm\/2012\/06\/05\/wisconsin-not-the-only-game-in-town-blue-on-blue-in-california\/<\/a>
\n[7] is doing \u201cfine\u201d:\u00a0http:\/\/hotair.com\/archives\/2012\/06\/08\/president-obama-the-private-sector-is-doing-just-fine\/<\/a>
\n[8] bailing from the convention:http:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/blogs\/politics\/2012\/06\/list-of-democrats-skipping-the-partys-national-convention-continues-to-grow\/<\/a>
\n[9] from Cory Booker:\u00a0http:\/\/cdn.pjmedia.com\/eddriscoll\/2012\/05\/22\/rnc-catches-obama-campaign-in-booker-lie-coverup\/<\/a>
\n[10] Fast and Furious:\u00a0http:\/\/cdn.pjmedia.com\/blog\/holder-found-in-contempt-after-dems-walk-out-of-vote\/<\/a>
\n[11] not a tax:\u00a0http:\/\/www.thegatewaypundit.com\/2012\/07\/flashback-obama-in-2008-promised-health-care-should-never-be-purchased-with-tax-increases-on-middle-class-families-video\/<\/a>
\n[12] as a tax:\u00a0http:\/\/www.thegatewaypundit.com\/2012\/07\/busted-audio-of-obama-lawyer-arguing-obamacare-is-a-tax-stuns-wh-chief-of-staff-jack-lew-video\/<\/a>
\n[13] not a tax:\u00a0http:\/\/hotair.com\/archives\/2012\/06\/29\/so-the-wh-is-really-going-to-run-with-this-its-not-a-tax-thing-huh\/<\/a>
\n[14] raising taxes:\u00a0http:\/\/cdn.pjmedia.com\/eddriscoll\/2012\/06\/28\/obama-imposes-huge-tax-on-the-american-middle-class\/<\/a>
\n[15] claimed on his own bio:\u00a0http:\/\/www.breitbart.com\/Big-Government\/2012\/05\/17\/The-Vetting-Barack-Obama-Literary-Agent-1991-Born-in-Kenya-Raised-Indonesia-Hawaii<\/a><\/p>\n