{"id":6427,"date":"2013-09-06T15:51:35","date_gmt":"2013-09-06T22:51:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=6427"},"modified":"2013-09-06T15:51:35","modified_gmt":"2013-09-06T22:51:35","slug":"on-poking-animals-and-other-stupid-things","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/on-poking-animals-and-other-stupid-things\/","title":{"rendered":"On Poking Animals and Other Stupid Things"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/\u00a0NRO’s The Corner<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

There are lots of reasons why many of us who would like to punish the Assad-family regime for its long history of anti-American and savage and genocidal conduct fear the present course is unwise, not in America\u2019s interest, and dangerous \u2014 at least as it has so far been articulated.<\/p>\n

One of the most unwise things to do in war is to preempt with the intention of merely wounding or humiliating an adversary without any intention of following through with further responses, or of ensuring that the attacked has little ability to retaliate, or of being prepared for a long tit-for-tat sequence in which the preemptor (i.e., us) has the upper hand.<\/p>\n

What was Georgia thinking in 2008 when it started a war in South Ossetia with Russia? Did bin Laden really think that we would not respond after his 9\/11 gambit, or that he had a\u00a0viable\u00a0follow-up plan for taking down ten or so additional high-rises?<\/p>\n

Japan apparently thought a one-time strike at the Seventh Fleet at Pearl Harbor would really show us who ran the Pacific. Even Reagan\u2019s 1986 strike on Qaddafi was followed eventually by Qaddafi\u2019s Lockerbie bombings that did not earn further serial reprisals. I don\u2019t think the shelling in Lebanon after the Marines Barracks catastrophe restored American deterrence in the region, given that it was not sustained, nor even aimed at a particular punitive result.<\/p>\n

Israel, which is replete with astute and brilliant strategists and military minds, was not quite prepared for the aftershocks of its\u00a0several\u00a0Lebanon incursions; but even in such risky operations it at least guaranteed that it would inflict a level of damage on its enemies that made their further provocations unwise and reminded radical Islamists and Syrians that in any extended back-and-forth Israel\u2019s enemies would pay a far higher human and material price. Libya was ill-advised and proved a fiasco and we abdicated\u00a0responsibility for the present mess after turning Tripoli into Mogadishu, but at least we took out Qaddafi, our understood aim.<\/p>\n

Are we prepared for any of these scenarios in Syria, when the talk is not about steps two, three, and four, but mostly about our initial one-quarter or one-third step, as if the beginning will be the end because we say it is?<\/p>\n

The point is not that a great power should not retaliate against grievances, only that when it preempts \u2014 and boldly starts an aggression for whatever cause, whether foolish or wise \u2014 it should be prepared to do so in such force that the attacked cannot retaliate, or at least realizes its planned retaliation would only ensure it more misery. Otherwise, poking an animal in the eye \u2014 no matter its apparent small size or lack of ferocity \u2014 will ensure some sort of response of who knows what caliber.<\/p>\n

Nothing we\u2019ve done in Afghanistan since 2009, in Iraq since 2009, in Libya since 2009, or in regard to Egypt since 2009, suggests that the United States is relentless, determined, dangerously unpredictable, and consistent in the pursuance of its regional and national interests.<\/p>\n

Nothing the president has said or done in the present crisis suggests Churchillian resolve \u2014 whether the empty orders for Assad to abdicate, the pink red lines,\u00a0the\u00a0eleventh-hour bluster, the flip-flop on consulting Congress,\u00a0the\u00a0alienation of European allies, or the fobbing of responsibility for his \u00a0empty threats onto the U.N. and the \u201cworld.\u201d When on the eve of war, Obama blames Congress in 2012 campaign fashion, or David Axelrod sneers that Congress is the proverbial dog that caught the car, no one abroad sees unity of moral purpose.<\/p>\n

Nothing the secretary of state has said or done \u2014 whether his past puerile flirtation with the murderous Assad regime, or his inconsistent positions on Iraq, or his recently undercut proclamations about imminent attacks \u2014 has impressed our enemies that he is not the sort to cross. Putin now openly calls him a liar and, worse, \u201cpathetic\u201d \u2014 with no doubt more to come.<\/p>\n

And even our poor beleaguered chairman of the Joint Chiefs seems agonized and almost embarrassed, as he tells us, or is quoted by the president to the effect, that time\u00a0is<\/em>\u00a0and\u00a0is not\u00a0<\/em>of the essence, the Syrian opposition\u00a0is and is not<\/em>\u00a0capable of working with the West, and the military\u00a0is and is not\u00a0<\/em>funded sufficiently to carry out such missions.<\/p>\n

The prior secretary of state, who assured us that bombing Qaddafi was moral and wise given that he was far more dangerous to us and the world than the \u201creformer\u201d Assad, is understandably mum.<\/p>\n

The national-security adviser is understandably mum, given Benghazi and her past forfeiture of public credibility.<\/p>\n

The architect of these sorts of humane interventions, U.N. ambassador Samantha Power, is understandably mum given \u00a0the results of \u201clead from behind\u201d in her signature Libyan intervention, and the way we misled the U.N. about no-fly zones becoming ground-support bombing, and so nixed a repeat performance this time around over Syria.<\/p>\n

What are we left with in Syria? A president who serially thunders \u201cif Congress won\u2019t act, I will\u201d on matters of the environment, immigration, and the budget, but now plays a bad Hamlet in war\u2014sorta, sorta not going to Congress, kinda, kinda not ready to follow its vote, and a military and a nation not eager to rally behind this sort of Stanley Baldwin commander-in-chief.<\/p>\n

Our best hope? That Syria and its thuggish partners are as confused as we are, and believe all this is deliberate, a brilliant ruse that masks a terrible reckoning of the sort they would do anything to avoid.<\/p>\n

If the president goes through with this ill-thought-out and confused attack, let us all unite, hope for the best \u2014 and prepare for anything.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/\u00a0NRO’s The Corner There are lots of reasons why many of us who would like to punish the Assad-family regime for its long history of anti-American and savage and genocidal conduct fear the present course is unwise, not in America\u2019s interest, and dangerous \u2014 at least as it has so far […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[127],"tags":[319,233,1028,1041,1030],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-1FF","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":924,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/syrian-ironies\/","url_meta":{"origin":6427,"position":0},"title":"Syrian Ironies","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 9, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online The more Bashar Assad butchers Syrian dissidents, the more the world community expresses outrage \u2014 while it does little to stop the bloodletting. Why? Ironies on top of ironies 1.\u00a0The politics of intervention. Republicans might seem the most likely to push for an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Syria"","block_context":{"text":"Syria","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/syria\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6437,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/obamas-farce\/","url_meta":{"origin":6427,"position":1},"title":"Obama’s Farce","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 10, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"He sold his plan for bombing Syria on flawed political assumptions. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/\u00a0National Review Online \u00a0 To support the president\u2019s enforcement of his red line in Syria requires suspensions of disbelief. Here are several. I wish it were not true, but there is scant evidence that the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Syria"","block_context":{"text":"Syria","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/syria\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/5516984495_a7e9026136-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":6539,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/goodbye-syria-on-to-iran\/","url_meta":{"origin":6427,"position":2},"title":"Goodbye Syria, On to Iran!","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 23, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/\u00a0PJ Media\u00a0 To paraphrase T.S. Eliot, this is the way Syria ends: Not with a bang, but a whimper. We are back where we started \u2014 lots of people dying \u2014 as the crisis recedes with a high five and a sigh, rather than with America\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Iran"","block_context":{"text":"Iran","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/iran\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9061,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/speak-loudly-and-carry-a-twig\/","url_meta":{"origin":6427,"position":3},"title":"Speak Loudly And Carry A Twig","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 17, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"By Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ Defining Ideas Nations in the Middle East that once aligned with America are now indifferent. Interests who opposed the United States grow defiant. Fence-sitting countries that calibrated their policies to the perception of U.S. strength are leaning toward our adversaries. Chaos is the result. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Defining Ideas"","block_context":{"text":"Defining Ideas","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/defining-ideas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6429,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/if-it-wasnt-syria-it-would-have-been-something-else\/","url_meta":{"origin":6427,"position":4},"title":"If It Wasn’t Syria, It Would Have Been Something Else","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 6, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/\u00a0NRO's The Corner It is very\u00a0possible that the president will not obtain a join authorization to bomb Syria; if he chooses to go ahead and attack anyway, Obama will incite a constitutional crisis\u2014the first time in history that a president has decided to go to war\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Syria"","block_context":{"text":"Syria","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/syria\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7896,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/iraq-was-then-syria-is-now\/","url_meta":{"origin":6427,"position":5},"title":"Iraq Was Then, Syria Is Now","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 30, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Obama hasn\u2019t a clue what he\u2019s doing, but at least he isn\u2019t George W. Bush. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online The Iraq War lies now mostly in the realm of myth. We have forgotten exactly how we got both into and out of the war. The October\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "The Middle East"","block_context":{"text":"The Middle East","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"U.S. Marines in Baghdad, April 2003 (Oleg Nikishin\/Getty Images)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/pic_giant_093014_SM_Iraqi-Freedom-G-500x291.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6427"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6427"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6427\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6428,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6427\/revisions\/6428"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6427"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6427"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6427"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}