by Raymond Ibrahim<\/p>\n
Private Papers<\/em><\/p>\n M<\/span>uch of the current debate surrounding Iran\u2019s nuclear aspirations centers on the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report which \u201cjudge[s] with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.\u201d While such reports tend to be accepted as authoritative \u2014 witness the ongoing political maelstrom caused by it \u2014 it is imperative to bear in mind that they are ultimately subjective, sometimes built atop the flimsiest evidence. Even the report is prefaced with the following caveat: \u201cThese assessments and judgments generally are based on collected information, which often is incomplete or fragmentary\u2026 In all cases, assessments and judgments are not intended to imply that we have \u2018proof\u2019 that shows something to be a fact or that definitively links two items or clauses.\u201d<\/p>\n And so the report relies on \u201cestimative language,\u201d with words like \u201cprobably,\u201d \u201clikely,\u201d \u201cmight,\u201d and \u201cmay,\u201d predominating, and a continuum of predictions ranging from \u201cremote\u201d to \u201calmost certainly.\u201d Still, the report admits that, \u201cA \u2018high confidence\u2019 judgment is not a fact or certainty, however, and such judgments still carry a risk of being wrong\u201d \u2014 such as when NIE stated in 2005 (two years after \u201cTehran halted its nuclear weapons program\u201d) that \u201c[We] assess with high confidence that Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons.\u201d<\/p>\n All intelligence analyses aside, however, when it comes to the issue of whether Iran means to acquire nukes, a bit of common sense is all that\u2019s required. Indeed, in certain situations, \u201cintelligence\u201d can be, if not superfluous, misleading.<\/p>\n Common sense, on the other hand, dictates that any nation \u2014 especially under-privileged, non-Western countries \u2014 would simply love to possess nuclear weapons. After all, once all the niceties and impotent talk at the U.N. fail, we still live in a world where military might is the ultimate deciding factor in all international affairs. And nuclear armaments are the ultimate expression of military might. Might is what allowed the U.S. to invade Iraq (partially based, incidentally, on faulty intelligence), despite the lack of widespread support at the U.N. That said, the international desire to acquire nuclear weapons is, quite ironically, most downplayed and misunderstood in the West, which itself is armed to the teeth with nukes.<\/p>\n This is not altogether surprising: whoever takes something for granted is often unaware of how eager others are to have it. And so, while a liberal and secular West may think that the ultimate answer to humanity\u2019s problems revolves around ending poverty and respecting all religions and creeds alike (since none of them are true anyway), under-privileged nations still maintain the traditional approach to politics: might makes right.\u00a0 Hence, the desire for nukes.<\/p>\n When it comes to Islamist regimes, such as Iran, the desire to acquire mankind\u2019s ultimate expression of power should be even more obvious. Not only does Iran share the same \u201csurvival of the fittest\u201d mentality predominant among under-privileged nations \u2014 often coupled with feelings of cultural superiority and disdain for the \u201cother,\u201d which can manifest as extreme nationalism and xenophobia \u2014 but the religion of Islam itself only augments these traits by giving them divine sanctioning. In other words, if under-privileged nations would love nothing more than to acquire the ultimate expression of power \u2014 with all the accompanying security, prestige, and subsequent wealth \u2014 how much more can be expected from theocracies whose constitutions are based on a religion that preaches nothing less than world dominance (see Koran 9:5 and 9:29, for example, and the exegetical consensus surrounding them)?<\/p>\n An August report compiled by the Congressional Research Service states that \u201cAhmadinejad believes his mission is to prepare for the return of the 12th \u2018Hidden\u2019 Imam, whose return from occultation [i.e., \u201chiding\u201d] would, according to Twelver Shi\u2019ite doctrine, be accompanied by the establishment of Islam as the global religion.\u201d In other words, Iran\u2019s leadership is pushing for the apocalypse. Moreover, Ahmadijihad has made clear his intention of seeing infidel Israel wiped off the map, in accordance to the eschatological (and canonical) hadith wherein Muhammad said \u201cThe Hour [Judgment Day] will not come until the Muslims fight the Jews and until the Jews hide behind the trees and rocks and the trees and rocks will say, \u2018O Muslim, O Servant of God! Here are the Jews! Come and kill them!\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n So are we to ignore all this \u2014 ignore all common sense and insight into human nature, ignore religious conviction \u2014 and instead rely on a report which judges (with \u201chigh confidence\u201d) that Tehran halted its nuclear program in 2003 (especially when it said the exact opposite in 2005)? As to Iran\u2019s intentions, which are the real issue, the NIE report leaves the door wide open: \u201c[W]e do not know whether it [Iran] currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.\u201d<\/p>\n When it comes to all things human, such as politics, \u201cobjective\u201d science cannot always help; the irrational is, and always will be, a predominant factor in human relations that cannot be quantified and analyzed. But a little cognizance of human nature \u2014 common sense \u2014 goes a long way.<\/p>\n Bottom line: Yes, Iran wants to acquire nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n Raymond Ibrahim is the editor of the\u00a0Al-Qaeda Reader<\/i>, translations of religious texts and propaganda.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Who needs “intelligence” to know Iran wants nukes? by Raymond Ibrahim Private Papers Much of the current debate surrounding Iran\u2019s nuclear aspirations centers on the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report which \u201cjudge[s] with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[227,746],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-1oP","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6138,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/libyan-intelligence-muslim-brotherhood-morsi-involved-in-u-s-consulate-attack\/","url_meta":{"origin":5383,"position":0},"title":"Libyan Intelligence: Muslim Brotherhood, Morsi Involved in U.S. Consulate Attack","author":"victorhanson","date":"June 27, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"by Raymond Ibrahim RaymondIbrahim.com According to a Libyan intelligence document, the Muslim Brotherhood, including Egyptian President Morsi, were involved in the September 11, 2012 terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, where several Americans, including U.S. ambassador to Libya, Chris Stevens, were killed. 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Pp. 297","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 26, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Please\u00a0read\u00a0this\u00a0book\u00a0review\u00a0from\u00a0my\u00a0colleague Terry Scambray \/\/ New Oxford Review Sword and Scimitar: Fourteen Centuries of War Between Islam and the West\u00a0by Raymond Ibrahim.\u00a0 Da Capo Press, 2018.\u00a0\u00a0 Pp. 297 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 We judge individuals by what they say and what they do.\u00a0 We judge cults, religions and ideologies the same way; that\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6219,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/crucified-again-venn-institute-interviews-raymond-ibrahim\/","url_meta":{"origin":5383,"position":5},"title":"Crucified Again — Venn Institute Interviews Raymond Ibrahim","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 18, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Raymond Ibrahim [Note: The following interview was conducted by the\u00a0Venn Institute\u00a0with Raymond Ibrahim] Raymond Ibrahim is a widely published author, public speaker, and Middle East and Islam expert, and author most recently of\u00a0Crucified Again: Exposing Islam\u2019s New War on Christians. 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