by Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n
National Review Online<\/em><\/p>\n U<\/span>nfortunately, wars are not as rare as lasting periods of peace. More people have perished in conflict since the Second World War than the 60 million who died during that horrific bloodletting. Americans should remember that even in the last two decades of “peace” we have still fought small wars in Grenada, Libya, Panama, the Gulf, Serbia, and Afghanistan. The democratic Athenians in the fifth century \u2014 the greatest hundred years of their culture \u2014 fought three out of every four years against Persians, Aegean Islanders, Cypriots, Egyptians, Spartans, Syracusans, and a host of other smaller city-states. Plato, who saw firsthand the last two decades of it all, summed up the depressing truth best when he said peace was but “a parenthesis” \u2014 as every state was always in an undeclared state of war with another.<\/span><\/p>\n About the only prolonged period of real peace in civilization’s history occurred during the second century A.D., when for nearly a hundred years, under the so-called “Five Good Emperors,” Rome’s government defeated most of its enemies, ran the Mediterranean world, and pretty much treated its own people humanely. Unfortunately, we can be assured that war will never be eliminated or outlawed \u2014 only that it can be delayed or, in some cases and for long periods, prevented. In the context of the Middle East, we are on the verge of War No. 5 of the last 55 years (1947, 1956, 1967, 1973, 2002). Afghanistan has not really been at peace for a quarter-century. Iraq in a single decade has invaded Iran and Kuwait, sent missiles into Israel, and killed thousands of Kurds and Shiites.<\/span><\/p>\n IF WARS ARE SO FREQUENT, WHAT CAUSES THEM? North Korea and North Vietnam invaded the southern halves of their peninsulas neither because their respective peoples were under attack by non-Communists, nor because their own resources and land were being stolen. Rather, they knew that only with absolute conquest of a nearby antithetical \u2014 and more attractive \u2014 alternative to their own rule could their hold on power be preserved. Kim Il Sung and Ho Chi Minh had no illusions that Marxism or totalitarianism would make the Koreans or Vietnamese freer, wealthier, or happier. In fact, they had good reason to think just the opposite. But both did trust that they could invade and win, or at least achieve stalemate \u2014 and so both attacked, were proved right, and thus held onto or expanded their power.<\/span><\/p>\n Saddam Hussein wanted land from Iran, oil from Kuwait, and obeisance from the Kurds, and sought allies by attacking Israel. Yet his own people had plenty of territory and resources well before he went to war. He was stopped not by U.N. envoys or the Arab League, but only by the guns of the United States. And he is a threat today not as a result of our determination to rid the world of him, but because of a misguided forbearance that spared him. Sadly, the careers of the real war-makers \u2014 Alexander, Caesar, Cort\u00e9s, Hitler, or Tojo-confirm that the Greeks had it right after all: States often fight for irrational reasons like “honor, fear, and self-interest,” and ambitious men regard restraint as weakness, not mercy.<\/span><\/p>\n WHY DO WARS ACTUALLY BREAK OUT Unfortunately, conflict-resolution arbitration, international accords, or world policing bodies \u2014 while helpful in diffusing some minor crises and valuable in enforcing accords \u2014 rarely prevent wars. Otherwise the Italians would have never entered Ethiopia, or the Japanese Nanking or the Russians Afghanistan. Deterrence alone can stop bullies. The astute Theban general Pagondas once reminded his unsure troops that the only way they could live safely next to Athens was by projecting an air of strength, since peoples such as the Athenians attacked, rather than admired, neighbors who were docile. His hoplites then defeated the Athenians and the latter never again invaded Boeotia.<\/span><\/p>\n So states that seek to start wars can be dissuaded from attacking when they realize there is a very good chance that the ensuing calamity will be worse for them than for their enemies \u2014 or, if irrational, they can be summarily defeated only through superior military force.<\/span><\/p>\n We cannot fathom exactly the state of mind of autocratic leaders in Iran, North Korea, or China. We know only two things about them: Given the state of America’s current defenses these countries will not attack us; and should they be so foolish, they would lose quickly. Should we reduce our arms and begin relying on our NATO allies, the U.N., or the goodwill of authoritarian states to leave us alone, it is more \u2014 rather than less \u2014 likely that we would find ourselves at war with all of them.<\/span><\/p>\n HOW DO WARS CEASE?<\/b><\/span> No wonder we often hear not of “war” but of plural “wars” \u2014 the Persian Wars, the Peloponnesian Wars, the Punic Wars, the Roman and English Civil Wars \u2014 in which armed conflicts are punctuated by shaky armistices until the ultimate victory of one of the two combatants. What ends particular wars for good is the defeat and exhaustion \u2014 and humiliation \u2014 of one side, often followed by a change of government or attitude among the defeated. After Plataea (479) no Persian king ever again thought his troops could defeat Greeks in pitched battle \u2014 or tried. There was a Roman Carthage in North Africa, but after 146 B.C. not a Punic one \u2014 and so lasting peace on both sides of the Mediterranean. Once a series of elected governments in the United States decided it was not worth the loss of lives and treasure in Vietnam, we ceased to fight and win, and so the war tragically was lost and will probably not be renewed.<\/span><\/p>\n The Middle East will have peace when the Arabs either destroy the state of Israel, or learn that the costs of their failed attempts are so dreadful that no Arab leader will again dare try. Again, we should remember that the latest round of fighting followed\u00a0not<\/i>\u00a0from Israeli aggression, but from the rushed and failed Israeli peace initiatives prompted by President Clinton \u2014 coupled with the earlier unilateral Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon \u2014 all of which suggested to Mr. Arafat a new weakening in, rather than the old preponderance of, Israeli strength. In that regard, our prior demand that Israel not reply to dozens of Iraqi Scuds probably did far more damage than good: in establishing the precedent that either Israel could not answer the bombing of its cities, or the United States would not let them.<\/p>\n Pundits shout on television that there is no hope in sight in the Middle East. In fact, we have come a long way from the last war of 1973. No Arab government will ever again invade Israel with conventional weapons \u2014 unless there is such a change in the Israel defenses that they believe they can defeat the Jewish state. Instead, there is a growing realization in Syria, Jordan, and Egypt that attacking Israel means the death and destruction of far more Arabs than Jews \u2014 especially when there is no longer a patron Soviet Union around for them to threaten and barter for what they cannot themselves obtain on the battlefield.<\/span><\/p>\n Even during this most disheartening current crisis, few Palestinian leaders believe they can any longer rally the Arab world en masse to invade Israel. And as they begin to realize that the continuance of suicide bombing results not in returned land, but in the systematic destruction of the homes and offices of the Palestinian elite, they seem more, not less, anxious to seek the intervention of the United States. The bellicose rhetoric of the Palestinian autocracy grew much more muted \u2014 and their calls for peace, conciliation, international peacekeepers, and outside intervention more frequent \u2014 once Israelis stopped talking of reprisals against murderers and simply took them.<\/span><\/p>\n DOES WAR SERVE ANY PURPOSE?<\/b><\/span> Instead of seeing soldiers, we witness bombers who dismember women and children on holy days; outlaws who shoot and then run for sanctuary into sacred Christian shrines; poor suspects who are summarily executed without trial on suspicion of helping the Israelis. So far, Palestinians have executed more of their own bound and unarmed civilians than they have killed Israeli soldiers in combat. “General” Arafat now nearly has the “war” he threatened and the chance for “martyrdom” he promised. The bombers have the enemy targets they desire right in their backyards. The Arab world is “united” in its furor and can easily join in to attack Israel.<\/span><\/p>\n War, in other words, destroys pretense.<\/span><\/p>\n As we have seen in the current crisis, those who are the most educated, the most removed from the often humiliating rat race of daily life (what Hobbes called the\u00a0bellum omnium contra omnes<\/i>), and the most inexperienced with thugs and bullies, are the likeliest to advocate utopian solutions and to ridicule those who would remind them of the tragic nature of mankind and the timeless nature of war. Ironically, they are also the most likely to get others less fortunate than themselves killed \u2014 as we saw in World War II, and most recently during the last decade in Iraq, Serbia, and in our ongoing experience with the Middle Eastern terrorists. McClellans \u2014 not Shermans; Chamberlains \u2014 not Churchills; and Clintons \u2014 not Reagans, usually pose as the more sensible, compassionate, and circumspect leaders; but in fact, even as they smile and pump the flesh, they prove far, far more dangerous to all involved.<\/span><\/p>\n The pacifists and utopians who believe war never solved anything should recall the words of the firebrand, slave-owning, and utterly lethal Nathan Bedford Forrest upon learning that many of his fellow Confederates were promising years of guerrilla warfare after 1865. “Men, you may all do as you please, but I’m a-going home. Any man who is in favor of a further prosecution of this war is a fit subject for a lunatic asylum, and ought to be sent there immediately.”<\/span><\/p>\n Mr. Forrest was a brave man and formidable fighter \u2014 indeed, he had personally killed 29 Union soldiers in battle and had 30 horses shot from under him. But what made him give up the fight was neither Abolitionist rhetoric nor a sudden change of heart, but the likes of William Tecumseh Sherman \u2014 who tore through Georgia and the Carolinas \u2014 and the thousands of Union cavalrymen that overran Forrest’s beloved Tennessee.<\/span><\/p>\n And, remember, Mr. Arafat is no Nathan Bedford Forrest<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a92002 Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It’s not as uncommon as we pretend by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online Unfortunately, wars are not as rare as lasting periods of peace. More people have perished in conflict since the Second World War than the 60 million who died during that horrific bloodletting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[829],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-1jZ","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":10830,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-war-of-wars-analyzed-to-the-third-decimal-place\/","url_meta":{"origin":5083,"position":0},"title":"The War of Wars Analyzed to the Third Decimal Place","author":"victorhanson","date":"December 16, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Santa\u2019s Book Bag By Larry Thornberry \/\/ The American Spectator A magnificent contribution from Victor Davis Hanson. The Second World Wars: How the First Global Conflict Was Fought and Won By Victor Davis Hanson (Basic Books, 652 pages, $40) Yes, Virginia, after thousands of books, lectures, debates, veteran memoirs, and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "War"","block_context":{"text":"War","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/war\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3144,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/where-does-republican-foreign-policy-go-from-here\/","url_meta":{"origin":5083,"position":1},"title":"Where Does Republican Foreign Policy Go From Here?","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 24, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce S. Thornton FrontPage The GOP\u2019s continuing analysis of last November\u2019s debacle has now sparked a debate about foreign policy. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul\u2019s 16-hour filibuster and his speeches at the Heritage Foundation and CPAC have reignited the perennial conflict between isolationists and interventionists of various stripes. As the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Bruce S. Thornton"","block_context":{"text":"Bruce S. Thornton","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/our-contributors\/bruce-s-thornton\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8681,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-three-crucial-factors-to-maintaining-the-peace-in-europe\/","url_meta":{"origin":5083,"position":2},"title":"The Three Crucial Factors to Maintaining the Peace in Europe","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 25, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\u00a0\/\/ National Review Online The bailed-out Greeks are still broke. Now their islands are flooded with a horde of migrants from the Middle East and Africa. Spain, Portugal, and Italy are almost in the same boat. Their shared Mediterranean traditions \u2014 and vulnerabilities \u2014 are far different\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "The World"","block_context":{"text":"The World","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Photo via NRO","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/european-culture-in-danger-from-migrants-500x292.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":10536,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/preemptive-strikes-and-preventive-wars-a-historians-perspective\/","url_meta":{"origin":5083,"position":3},"title":"Preemptive Strikes and Preventive Wars: A Historian\u2019s Perspective","author":"victorhanson","date":"August 31, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"By Barry Strauss Strategika Preventive wars and preemptive strikes are both risky business. A preventive war is a military, diplomatic, and strategic endeavor, aimed at an enemy whom one expects to grow so strong that delay would cause defeat. A preemptive strike is a military operation or series of operations\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Strategika"","block_context":{"text":"Strategika","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/strategika\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/buyWarBonds.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":5096,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/palestine-pretense-and-israel-reality\/","url_meta":{"origin":5083,"position":4},"title":"Palestine Pretense and Israel Reality","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 18, 2002","format":false,"excerpt":"What the world knows, but can't say, to be true\/ by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online A\u00a0common theme throughout classical literature is the role of pretext (prophasis) contrasted with the actual cause of complaint (aitia) \u2014 the great divide between what aggrieved people say publicly and what they feel\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "March 2002"","block_context":{"text":"March 2002","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2002\/march-2002\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2080,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/obamas-bad-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":5083,"position":5},"title":"Obama’s Bad War","author":"victorhanson","date":"December 11, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson NRO's\u00a0The Corner The president said some good things, but unfortunately, his long academic lecture on the nature of war itself had all the characteristics of what we have come to accept from an Obama sermon: 1) Verbosity (4,000 words plus!) and extraneousness (he finally even referenced\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "December 2009"","block_context":{"text":"December 2009","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2009\/december-2009\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5083"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5083"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5083\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5085,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5083\/revisions\/5085"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5083"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5083"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5083"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n<\/span>A number of great philosophers, political scientists, and historians have written vast treatises on the subject. While there is no general agreement, few believe that they arise simply out of real material “grievances” \u2014 the inequity and oppression that leave thousands of innocents poor, sick, and hungry. Make everyone literate and well fed, and war might become less common \u2014 but it would not go away. Hannibal as a child swore eternal enmity toward Rome not because of an impoverished Carthage, but to restore the pride of his clan and country after the humiliation of the First Punic War.<\/span><\/p>\n
\n<\/span>Yet an aggressive state’s desire to go war does not necessarily mean that wars need follow. The causes and origins of conflict are\u00a0not<\/i>\u00a0the same as the immediate circumstances that lead to the actual fighting and killing.<\/span><\/p>\n
\nThe actual misery of killing ends in a variety of ways, but the longest periods of peace usually follow from decisive victories which prove aggression to be suicidal. The German army in 1918 surrendered in France,\u00a0not<\/i>\u00a0Germany \u2014 and was back on French soil in 22 years. The German army in 1945 was ruined at home \u2014 and has been nowhere else in 57 years.<\/span><\/p>\n
\nMilitary force has a great power of clarity. With the Israeli reply, the world has seen at last that terrorists with explosives strapped to their bodies prefer to blow up small children rather than roll under tanks. There are plenty of militarily significant targets now for the Palestinians “soldiers,” but apparently none that offer the specter of terror, publicity, fame \u2014 and money \u2014 to be found in blowing up civilians at Passover dinners.<\/span><\/p>\n