{"id":4130,"date":"2006-02-19T22:33:27","date_gmt":"2006-02-19T22:33:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com.108-166-28-151.mdgnetworks.com\/wordpress\/?p=4130"},"modified":"2013-04-02T22:34:24","modified_gmt":"2013-04-02T22:34:24","slug":"what-will-europe-really-do","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/what-will-europe-really-do\/","title":{"rendered":"What Will Europe Really Do?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>by Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n<p><em>Real Clear Politics<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #646464; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: large;\">N<\/span><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">othing is quite as surreal as the Islamic world\u2019s fury at the liberal and innocuous Danes. How could anyone wish to burn their embassies and kill their citizens, when they have always offered all the politically correct, multicultural platitudes and welcomed in any and all from the Middle East?<!--more--><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">Now the furor over the cartoons, coming on the heels of the bombings in Madrid and London, the French rioting, the murders in Holland, and the failed European negotiations with the Iranian theocracy have shaken Europe to its foundations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">If the most liberal and tolerant states in Europe such as Holland and Denmark have the most problems with Islamic radicals, then what does that say about the continent as a whole? Why were not the calculating jihadists singling out a more unapologetic Catholic Poland that has larger contingents in Iraq and is far prouder of its Christian roots?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">Do the Europeans sense that the more open, free-wheeling and non-judgmental the culture, the more it is hated by the jihadists? If Europe as a whole is more pro-Palestinian than the U. S., disapproved of Iraq, and yet is still hated as much, is magnanimity at last exposed as appeasement \u2014 earning only contempt from an emboldened enemy?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">Don\u2019t look, however, for any overt expression of alarm. It is too much to ask of the E. U. for now to go on the record supporting the right of Danish free expression or to demand an embargo of Iran as it approaches nuclear autonomy. Instead, expect the European reaction to be far more subtle: the same old public utopian rhetoric, but in the shadows a newfound desire to galvanize against the threat of Islamic fascism.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #646464; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: large;\">H<\/span><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">ere is what we can probably anticipate. First will come a radical departure from past immigration practices. Islam will be praised; the Middle East assured that Europe is tolerant\u2014but very few newcomers from across the Mediterranean let in.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">There will be continued public furor over the American efforts in Iraq, but far greater secret efforts to coordinate with the U. S. \u2014 in everything from isolating the Assad regime in Syria to rethinking missile defense. For the past three years the post-colonial Europeans have wished the Americans to learn their imperial lessons by failing in Iraq. Yet it may well be that many in private will now wish us to succeed, if only in the hopes that such Middle East democracies will be less likely in the future to turn loose their mobs to burn European embassies and threaten their citizens.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">We won\u2019t see much public condemnation of Hamas, but more likely quiet efforts to pull the plug slowly on subsidies for such terrorists. The Europeans praised Arafat, then learned that he was singularly corrupt. Nothing disturbs a European more than to be swindled and damned as immoral in the process. Subsidies to Jew-hating Hamas terrorists only ensure both.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">Europe will still talk about bringing Turkey into the fold of the West, but de facto is horrified at the thought that millions of a religion that empowers so many to go berserk over a few cartoons might soon comprise the most populous nation of Europe. I doubt any European diplomat will invest any political capital at all in restarting in earnest Turkish-E.U. talks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">We can also look forward to more bizarre pronouncements such as Jacques Chirac\u2019s warning about the French nuclear deterrent. In point of fact, Europe has no real defenses against a 9\/11-like attack. They know it. So do the terrorists.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">Crash an airliner into the dome of St. Peter\u2019s or knock down the Eiffel Tower tomorrow: Europe has no mechanism to hunt down the perpetrators in the Hindu Kush, the Bekka Valley, or the wilds of Iran \u2014 much less, like the U. S., to hold a rogue regime responsible.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">Frustrated by its lack of military resources, but cognizant of the classical need to warn an enemy that more is to be lost than won from starting a war, France is reduced to bluster about nuclear weapons \u2014 threats that probably are either not believed or welcomed by the jihadists. In lieu of a credible military, Europe will send more tiny contingents to Afghanistan, remind the world that Britain and France are nuclear, and somehow hurry up to construct a conventional deterrent where there is now none at all.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #646464; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: large;\">F<\/span><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">inally, the Europeans who despised the unilateral and preemptory George Bush will start to grate at his new multilateral side even more. Be careful what you wish for, especially when an American leader may now not necessarily be such an easy target of caricature \u2014 or may not always do the dirty work of fighting jihadists from Pakistan to the Sunni Triangle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">Instead, by letting the Europeans take the lead with the Iranian negotiations, and keeping nearly silent about the cartoon hysteria, the U. S. essentially has told the Europeans, \u201cHere is the sort of restrained sober and judicious global diplomacy that you so welcome.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">Because of slated troop withdrawals from European bases, and a new American weariness with the old anti-Americanism, some Europeans are beginning to recoil at the idea that they might well be on their own \u2014 and in a war against fanatical enemies that they have appeased and without rational friends that they have estranged.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">In response, we may see less of the anti-American rhetoric and a return to the Cold War slogans of a \u201cstrong Atlantic Alliance\u201d and \u201can essential Nato,\u201d as nuclear jihadists replace the fear of 300 Soviet divisions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">So now Europe is being thrust right into the middle of the so-called war against Islamic fascism. Once threatened, it will either react with a newly acquired Churchillian maturity to protect its civilization, or cave, in hopes that even more Chamberlain-type appeasement will satisfy the Islamists.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: medium;\">It should be a fascinating spring ahead.<\/span><\/p>\n<div align=\"center\">\u00a92006 Victor Davis Hanson<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>by Victor Davis Hanson Real Clear Politics Nothing is quite as surreal as the Islamic world\u2019s fury at the liberal and innocuous Danes. How could anyone wish to burn their embassies and kill their citizens, when they have always offered all the politically correct, multicultural platitudes and welcomed in any and all from the Middle [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[779],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-14C","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":4319,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/and-then-they-came-after-us\/","url_meta":{"origin":4130,"position":0},"title":"And Then They Came After Us","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 22, 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"We're at war. 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As the third recent Middle East election nears in Iraq, Americans are still puzzled over why well-off Islamic fundamentalists crashed planes into skyscrapers and now send mercenaries to the Sunni Triangle to slaughter us as we sponsor democracy. Yet since Sept. 11, we\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;January 2005&quot;","block_context":{"text":"January 2005","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2005\/january-2005\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10699,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/nato-for-the-21st-century-ensuring-liberal-democracy-in-europe\/","url_meta":{"origin":4130,"position":4},"title":"NATO For the 21st Century: Ensuring Liberal Democracy In Europe","author":"victorhanson","date":"November 2, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"NATO was originally founded after World War II to ensure that liberal democracy survived in Europe. 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