by Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n
National Review Online<\/em><\/p>\n A<\/span>fter September 11, there were only seven sovereign countries in the Middle East that posed a real danger to the policies and, in some cases, the security of the United States \u2014 Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. Ignoring the hysteria about the Sunni Triangle in Iraq, if we look at these states empirically, have they become more or less a threat in the last five years?<\/p>\n The Taliban in Afghanistan was actively harboring bin Laden and al Qaeda. Without their support, the mass murder on September 11 would have been difficult to pull off.<\/p>\n Iran was the chief sponsor of Hezbollah, which had killed more Americans than any other Islamist terror organization and was rumored to be at work on obtaining nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n In Iraq, Saddam Hussein\u2019s agents were involved in the first World Trade Center bombing. They were also meeting with al Qaeda operatives throughout the 1990s and offering sanctuary both to al Qaeda offshoots in Kurdistan and, later, to veterans from Afghanistan. As the U.S. Senate observed in 2002, this was in addition to the general problems of no-fly zones, oil-for-food, violations of U.N. and 1991-armistice accords, and periodic retaliatory American bombing.<\/p>\n Libya was a de facto belligerent of the United States, provoking past U.S. air strikes on Tripolis. Among other things, it was involved in the Pan Am Lockerbie bombing and had a clandestine WMD program.<\/p>\n Pakistan had violated both U.N. and U.S. non-proliferation protocols. Its intelligence services were infiltrated by radical Islamists who were responsible for killing American diplomatic personnel and supplying the Taliban with support, as well as directly aiding al Qaeda operatives along the border.<\/p>\n Saudi Arabia, whose 15 subjects comprised the majority of the killers on 9\/11, was stealthily giving blackmail money to Islamic terrorists to deflect their anti-Royal Family anger toward the United States. The kingdom\u2019s vast financial clout subsidized radical \u201ccharities\u201d and madrassas that offered at a global level the religious and ideological underpinnings for radical and violent Islamic extremism.<\/p>\n Syria had long swallowed most of Lebanon, and was a haven for anti-Western terrorists from Hamas to Hezbollah.<\/p>\n F<\/span>our-and-a-half years after September 11, how has the United States fared in neutralizing these seven threats?<\/p>\n The Taliban is gone. In its place is the unthinkable \u2014 a parliamentary democracy that welcomes an open economy and foreign investment. Afghanistan is plagued still by drug-lords and resurgent terrorists, but after a successful war that removed the Taliban, the country hardly resembles the nightmare that existed before September 11.<\/p>\n Iran is closer to the bomb than ever, but there is at least worldwide scrutiny of its machinations, in a manner lacking in the past. Tehran is in a death struggle with the new Iraqi government, trying to undermine the democracy by transplanting its radical Shiite ganglia before a constitutional, diverse Iraqi culture energizes its own restive population that supposedly tires of the theocracy.<\/p>\n The thousands who died yearly under Saddam\u2019s killing apparatus in Iraq have been followed by thousands killed in sectarian strife. Yet Saddam and his Baathist nightmare are gone from Iraq, offering hope where there was none. After three elections, a democratic government has emerged. Despite a terrible cost in American lives and wealth, so far elections have not been derailed, open civil war has not followed from the daily terror, and Americans are looking to reduce, not enlarge, their presence.<\/p>\n Libya is perhaps the strangest development of all. The United States is slowly exploring reestablishing diplomatic relations. Moammar Khadafy is giving up his WMD arsenal. And the country is suddenly open to cell phones, the Internet, satellite television, and is no longer a global financial conduit for international terrorism.<\/p>\n Pakistan is still run by a military dictator. But as a result of American bullying and financial enticement, it is slowly weeding out al Qaeda sympathizers from its government, which on rare occasions attacks terrorists residing in its borderlands. Indeed, al Qaeda seems to hate the present Pakistani government as much as it does the United States.<\/p>\n Saudi Arabia has gained enormous leverage as oil skyrocketed from $30 to over $70 a barrel. Yet under American pressure it has cracked down on al Qaeda terrorists and has cleaned up (somewhat) its overseas financial offices \u2014 perhaps evidenced by a wave of reactive terrorist attacks against the Riyadh government. American efforts to urge liberalization have met a tepid response \u2014 given Saudi reliance on the oil card, and its sophistic argument that for the present an autocratic monarchy is the only alternative to a terrorist-supporting theocracy.<\/p>\n Syria is out of Lebanon by popular pressure. It still supports terrorists against Israel \u2014 and now Iraq too \u2014 but judging from its rhetoric it must be feeling squeezed by a democratic Turkey, Iraq, and Israel on its borders, and a new tough stance from the United States.<\/p>\n So where does all this leave us? In every case, I think, far messier \u2014 but far better \u2014 than before September 11. Few argue that Afghanistan or Iraq is worse off than when under the Taliban or Saddam. Nor is Syria in a stronger position. Despite their respective nuclear and petroleum deterrence, both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are ever more sensitive to the dangers of Islamic radicalism. Libya no longer poses the threat of using WMD against its neighbors and is less likely to fund international terror. Iran is the wild card \u2014 closer to success in obtaining the bomb, but closer as well to becoming isolated by international pressure and the events that it cannot quite control across the border in Iraq.<\/p>\n W<\/span>here do we go from here? The United States has its own paradoxes. These positive developments \u2014 themselves the result of a radical departure from the old appeasement that either used the cruise missile as an impotent gesture of retaliation or accepted realpolitik as a means of playing odious dictators against each other \u2014 have proved as controversial as they are costly.<\/p>\n A new strain of what we might call punitive isolationism is back (\u201cmore rubble, less trouble\u201d), in which we should simply unleash bombers when evidence is produced of complicity in attacks against Americans, but under no circumstance put a single soldier on the ground to \u201chelp\u201d such people who are \u201cincapable\u201d of liberal civilized society.<\/p>\n The hard Right is candid in its pessimistic dismissal of American idealism and worries that a new muscular Wilsonianism will lose the ascendant Republican majority and betray conservative values.<\/p>\n The Left buys into the neo-isolationism since it means less of an \u201cimperial\u201d footprint abroad and more funds released for entitlements at home \u2014 as well as a way of tarring George Bush and regaining Congress.<\/p>\n What is lacking has been a consistently spirited defense, both unapologetic and humble at the same time, of our efforts since September 11.<\/p>\n First, the United States was not cynical in its efforts: no oil was stolen; no hegemony was established; and democrats, not dictators, were promoted. We were appealing directly to the people of the Middle East, not negotiating with Mullah Omar or Saddam Hussein about their futures. No other oil-importing country in the world would have tried to pressure the Saudis to reform at a time of global petroleum shortages \u2014 not France, not China, not India.<\/p>\n Second, there were never good choices after September 11. The old appeasement had only emboldened the terrorists, from 1993 in Manhattan to the bombing in Yemen of the\u00a0U.S.S. Cole<\/em>. Saddam\u2019s Iraq was unstable. It was only a matter of time before Saddam, energized with fresh petroleum profits, would renew his ambitions, once 12 years of no-fly-zones and controversial, but leaky, embargoes wore the West out. Given the premise that dictators promoted terrorists in an unholy alliance of convenience, and themselves often had oil and access to weapons, there were no good choices, whether we let them be or removed the worst.<\/p>\n Three, by the standard of Grenada, Panama, and the Balkans, our losses were costly. But the Middle East is a struggle of a different sort; it is an existential one in which defeat means more attacks on the United States homeland, while victory in changing the landscape of the region presages an end to the nexus of Islamic terror. In that regard, so far we have been fortunate, four-and-a-half years later, in avoiding the level of costs incurred on the first day of the war that took 3,000 American lives and resulted in a trillion dollars in economic damage.<\/p>\n Four, the strategy was not wholly military or political, much less characterized by preemption or unilateralism. Iraq was not the blueprint for endless military action to come, but the high-stakes gambit that offered real hope of bringing about associated change from Pakistan to Tripolis once Saddam was gone and a constitutional government established in its place.<\/p>\n Five, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. As we approach year five, there has been no subsequent attack on the United States. An entire intellectual industry has emerged to educate the West about radical Islamic fascism, something mostly lacking prior to September 11. Our enemies in al Qaeda are either dead, arrested, in hiding, or losing in Iraq, and the embrace of radical Islam through the Middle East at least now carries the consequence of fear of an unpredictable reaction on the part of the United States.<\/p>\n We are still in a race of sorts, hoping that Afghanistan and Iraq will enter a period of democratic stability and the violence halts before the American public tires of the daily visuals to the point of demanding a premature end to our efforts at birthing democracy. And while we do the unpopular work of trying to restore hope to the Middle East, the aloof Europeans pose as the moderate alternative, the Chinese make ever more trade, the Russians ever more trouble, and the Arab sheikdoms ever more money.<\/p>\n \u00a92006 Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Is the U.S. better off with the Middle East as it is now than as it was before 2001? by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online After September 11, there were only seven sovereign countries in the Middle East that posed a real danger to the policies and, in some cases, the security of the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[774],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-12z","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":3572,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/back-to-the-future-in-the-middle-east\/","url_meta":{"origin":4003,"position":0},"title":"Back to the Future in the Middle East","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 30, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services If Gen. David Petraeus can't stabilize Iraq by autumn \u2014 or if Americans decide to pull out of Iraq before he gets a fair chance \u2014 expect far worse chaos eventually to follow. We will see ethnic cleansing, mass murder of Iraqi reformers,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "July 2007"","block_context":{"text":"July 2007","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2007\/july-2007\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3523,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/winning-ugly\/","url_meta":{"origin":4003,"position":1},"title":"Winning Ugly","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 2, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Iraq doesn't need to be a Kodak moment. by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online There is no need to review the now common judgment on the Iraqi war as a fiasco, quagmire, or \u201cworst\u201d something or other in American history. We have paid over four years, a high price\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "October 2007"","block_context":{"text":"October 2007","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2007\/october-2007\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7586,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/americas-middle-east-dilemma\/","url_meta":{"origin":4003,"position":2},"title":"America\u2019s Middle East Dilemma","author":"victorhanson","date":"June 19, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Toppling tyrants is ineffective in the long term without years of unpopular occupation. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online Two and a half years ago, the U.S. pulled every soldier out of a mostly quiet Iraq. In the void thus created, formerly al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorists calling themselves \u201cThe Islamic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "The Middle East"","block_context":{"text":"The Middle East","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"A Tenth Mountain Division soldier in Kirkuk Province, Iraq, 2008. (Photo: Staff Sgt. Samuel Bendet, Via NRO)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/pic_giant_061914_SM_Americas-Middle-East-Dilemma-DVIDS-500x291.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":4541,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-real-humanists-revolution-from-afghanistan-to-iraq\/","url_meta":{"origin":4003,"position":3},"title":"The Real Humanists: Revolution from Afghanistan to Iraq","author":"victorhanson","date":"November 19, 2004","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online In September and early October 2001 we were warned that an invasion of Afghanistan was impossible \u2014 peaks too high, winter and Ramadan on the way, weak and perfidious allies as bad as the Islamists \u2014 and thus that the invasion would result\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "November 2004"","block_context":{"text":"November 2004","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2004\/november-2004\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4268,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/strategy-strategy-everywhere\/","url_meta":{"origin":4003,"position":4},"title":"Strategy, Strategy Everywhere…","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 23, 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"...but not a drop of memory. by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online In widespread public exasperation, everyone now has the answer for Iraq, but also a strange amnesia about why we are doing what we are doing. Trisection The trisectionists are again making their case. They urge the creation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "September 2005"","block_context":{"text":"September 2005","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2005\/september-2005\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3784,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/do-we-have-a-strategy-in-the-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":4003,"position":5},"title":"Do We Have a Strategy in the War?","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 13, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Yes, and a multifaceted one, at that. by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online It is often said that the United States has neither a long-term strategy in this larger war against terror nor an immediate one in Iraq. Both are unfair charges, since we seem to have both. Against\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "October 2006"","block_context":{"text":"October 2006","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2006\/october-2006\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4003"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4003"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4004,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4003\/revisions\/4004"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}