by Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n
NRO’s\u00a0The Corner<\/em><\/p>\n Everywhere But Iraq?<\/strong><\/p>\n No one quite knows all the causes of the unrest in Tunisia, now spreading to Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East, or how this will all end, and whether this seemingly middle-class revolt dovetails to the 2009 demonstrations in Iran and the Cedar Revolution earlier in Lebanon. But while Islamists may eventually hijack the popular outrage against authoritarianism, both secular and Islamic, for now one thing is at least clear. There will probably be no such popular violent unrest in Iraq where an elected and popular government is legitimate and where violence comes from small numbers of anti-democratic forces seeking to impose an intolerant dictatorship of some sort.<\/p>\n Given that those in and about the Obama administration have long dropped their old narratives about Iraq (\u201clost,\u201d etc.), given that there are presently no popular complaints at home against our many thousands still in the country (e.g., mysteriously no more movies like\u00a0In the Valley of Elah<\/em>,\u00a0Redacted<\/em>,\u00a0Stop Loss<\/em>, no more Camp Caseys in Texas, no more courtship of Michael Moore), and given that it has become one of Obama\u2019s \u201cgreatest achievements,\u201d surely someone in this administration can channel some sort of support for the dissidents in a way we did not in 2009 in Iran, by pointing to American support for the consensual and constitutional government in Iraq. Its free elections, complete control of its own fossil fuels, and open and unbridled media did not come out of the head of Zeus or because Saddam got tired of killing people.<\/p>\n 1979 Redux?<\/strong><\/p>\n The Obama administration\u2019s deer-in-the headlights policy toward Egypt will probably change if and when Mubarak & Co. leave and thereby introduce the risk of a Czar\u2013Kerensky\u2013Lenin or Estates-Generales\u2013Paris Commune\u2013Committee of Public Safety scenario \u2014 i.e., the better organized and militantly non-democratic forces coming to the fore amid loosely organized protest against prior oppression.<\/p>\n Any \u201cunity\u201d government with the anti-democratic Muslim Brotherhood as a member is\u00a0de facto<\/em>\u00a0a route to an Islamic Republic and a hostile Egypt for years to come \u2014 a veritable Libya, Syria, or Iran on steroids. We should remember just how much Nasser and, later, a pro-Soviet early Sadat stymied US interests. Certainly, Mubarak\u2019s Egypt is no more Western or modern than was the Shah\u2019s Iran, where the unlikely return to the pre-modern world soon became accepted. The thing that stopped Iraq from going the way of Iran (e.g., Saddam\u2013Allawi\u2013Zarqawi, like Shah\u2013Banisadr\u2013Khomeini) was, in large part, constant and vocal support for constitutional government and nothing but \u2014 and the skill of the US military.<\/p>\n I suppose the West currently feels like someone watching a train approaching an abyss without much insight into how to prevent the train from going over the cliff. Our daily-evolving strategy apparently hinges on proper triangulation, shifting from prodding Mubarak to reform to calling on protesters to form a democratic government as Mubarak appears to weaken, all while allowing some leeway should he make a remarkable recovery.<\/p>\n I hope we are saving our condemnation and diplomatic powder for even the hint of an Islamic manipulation of the chaos. However, after the president\u2019s\u00a0Al Arabiya<\/em>\u00a0interview, his silence over Tehran in spring 2009, and the Cairo speech \u2014 the constant themes being US culpability for Iraq, generic apologies for purported past sins, and America\u2019s under-appreciation of past Islamic brilliance \u2014 I fear that far too many in and outside the Middle East are unsure how America would react to an Islamist absorption of the currently popular protest. \u2018Oh well, America probably sees these guys as the inheritors of Cordoba, once again doing their part to create another Western Renaissance or Enlightenment.\u2019<\/p>\n In short, at some point soon, we are going to have to come out and express our support for a non-Islamist constitutional state, period \u2014 without any Carter-esque talk of \u201cmoderate\u201d Islamists.<\/p>\n \u00a92011 Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" by Victor Davis Hanson NRO’s\u00a0The Corner Everywhere But Iraq? No one quite knows all the causes of the unrest in Tunisia, now spreading to Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East, or how this will all end, and whether this seemingly middle-class revolt dovetails to the 2009 demonstrations in Iran and the Cedar Revolution earlier […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[196],"tags":[12,635,1055,228,636,1040,1043,1016],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-10e","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":3804,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/show-the-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":3858,"position":0},"title":"Show the World?","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 26, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Exactly what will the people of the Middle East do? by Victor Davis Hanson NRO's\u00a0The Corner By summertime, we will begin to see a new clarity in the Middle East. The old narratives \u2014 that American support for authoritarians undermined democratic awakenings; that Iraq was a catastrophe; that we need\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Foreign Policy"","block_context":{"text":"Foreign Policy","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/obama-administration\/foreign-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3451,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/caught-in-the-middle-east-minefield\/","url_meta":{"origin":3858,"position":1},"title":"Caught in the Middle East Minefield","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 7, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services America seems trapped in an exploding Middle East minefield. Revolts are breaking out amid the choke points of world commerce. Shiite populations are now restive in the Gulf monarchies. 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