{"id":3825,"date":"2011-02-18T17:01:40","date_gmt":"2011-02-18T17:01:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com.108-166-28-151.mdgnetworks.com\/wordpress\/?p=3825"},"modified":"2013-04-10T21:39:52","modified_gmt":"2013-04-10T21:39:52","slug":"not-a-time-for-wishful-thinking-about-egypt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/not-a-time-for-wishful-thinking-about-egypt\/","title":{"rendered":"Not a Time for Wishful Thinking about Egypt"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Bruce S. Thornton<\/p>\n

Advancing a Free Society<\/em><\/p>\n

The fall of Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak has occasioned all manner of democracy happy-talk in the West. From the Democratic White House to the neo-con\u00a0Weekly Standard<\/em>, it is bliss to be alive at the moment that democracy is finally emerging in the Muslim Middle East, with all manner of boons to follow \u2014 free elections, respect for human rights, and the marginalization of the so-called religious extremists, all leading to peace and prosperity and the discrediting of Islamism.<\/p>\n

But as so many coo, like Shakespeare\u2019s Miranda, \u201cO brave new world, that has such people in\u2019t,\u201d prudence dictates that we respond as Prospero does: \u201c\u2019Tis new to thee.\u201d We\u2019ve been here before, most recently in Iran in June 2009, when another revolution driven by tech-savvy, mostly secularist young people was greeted with the same excitement, only to see the uprising crushed. Go back to 1979, and the Iranian Revolution had its starry-eyed fans in the West, who thought the uprising against the Shah was likewise driven by secularist nationalists, democrats, and socialists seeking self-determination and democratic freedom. Yet within a few years the Khomeinists had triumphed, and an Islamic theocracy came to power and started nurturing and supporting terrorist organizations.<\/p>\n

Those misreadings of events in Iran happened because of a failure to understand in their own terms the motives of the majority of Iranians. In 1979, many analysts in the West believed that the keys to hatred of the Shah and his regime were inspired not by religion, but by anti-colonialism, anti-imperialism, liberal aspirations, and resistance to an oppressor seen as the puppet of American corporate and nationalist interests. This Western paradigm of post-colonial revolution discounted the role of religion, which in turn caused many to ignore the long-simmering religious opposition to the Shah\u2019s secular regime and its modernizing programs, which were seen as \u201cfundamentally opposed to Islam itself and the existence of a religious class,\u201d as Khomeini put it in 1963.<\/p>\n

Thirty-two years after the Iranian Revolution, the same failure of imagination continues to compromise our relations with the Muslim Middle East, and inhibits an accurate understanding of Islamic dogma and theology and their relationship to jihadist terror. A few days before Mubarak\u2019s fall, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper asserted that the Muslim Brotherhood is \u201ca very heterogeneous group, largely secular, which has eschewed violence and has decried al Qaeda as a perversion of Islam.\u201d As\u00a0Barry Rubin<\/a>\u00a0and others have noted, this estimate is a fantasy that mistakes tactical duplicity for fundamental beliefs. Cut through all the sweet talk of Western journalists and jihadist apologists, however, and those beliefs remain the same: waging jihad against the West in order to establish an Islamic regime based on sharia law.<\/p>\n

But let\u2019s not pick on James Clapper, for he is merely one of a series of government officials who have misrepresented the Islamic roots of jihadist outfits like al Qaeda. In August 2009, John Brennan, Obama\u2019s assistant for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism, dismissed the Islamic roots of jihadism: \u201cNor does President Obama see this challenge as a fight against \u2018jihadists.\u2019 Describing terrorists in this way \u2014 using a legitimate term, \u2018jihad,\u2019 meaning to purify oneself or to wage a holy struggle for a moral goal \u2014 risks giving these murderers the religious legitimacy they desperately seek but in no way deserve.\u201d Nor should we just target Democrats: Bush administration officials indulged the same wishful thinking. In a\u00a0New York Times<\/em>\u00a0op-ed in June 2008, two administration members wrote that jihad is \u201ca quest to find one\u2019s faith or an external fight for justice,\u201d begging the question of what sort of \u201cjustice\u201d Muslims have in mind.<\/p>\n

So too in Egypt today, we need to avoid assuming the majority wants what we think of as political freedom, which assumes that universal human rights are innate to all humans and thus cannot be limited or withheld from citizens. Maybe some of the young professionals texting and tweeting in Tahrir Square believe that, but it\u2019s the rest of the 85 million Egyptians whose beliefs will shape the new government and its policies. And the best available evidence suggests that those millions share many of the Islamist goals of the Muslim Brothers. For example, in a Pew survey last year, 84% of Egyptians support the death penalty for apostates, and 82% support stoning adulterers. These are not beliefs consistent with the foundational principles of democracy.<\/p>\n

Given our history of misinterpretation, willful delusion, and sheer ignorance when it comes to Islam, then, it behooves us to exercise prudence and temper our hosannas about events in Egypt, and let the evidence of behavior and actions guide us rather than our wishful thinking. One sign to watch is the treatment of Egypt\u2019s Christian Copt minority. No regime that limits, as Egypt does, the right of its citizens freely to pursue spiritual happiness without government interference can legitimately be called democratic, no matter how many fair elections are held. Before we start singing paeans to democracy in Egypt, let\u2019s see if democratic principles, not democratic machinery like elections, manifest themselves not in words, but in action.<\/p>\n

\n

\u00a92011 Bruce S. Thornton<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Bruce S. Thornton Advancing a Free Society The fall of Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak has occasioned all manner of democracy happy-talk in the West.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[118,22],"tags":[161,1034,1035,228,1069,636,1017,186,1043,30,1016],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-ZH","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":2406,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/liberating-libya-for-jihadists\/","url_meta":{"origin":3825,"position":0},"title":"Liberating Libya for Jihadists","author":"victorhanson","date":"August 30, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce S. Thornton FrontPage Magazine The fall of Muammar Gaddafi is making some in the West giddy with the usual \u201cArab Spring\u201d wishful visions of democracy and freedom flourishing throughout the Muslim Middle East, even as the last binge of democratic intoxication, the fall of Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Libya"","block_context":{"text":"Libya","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/libya\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1358,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-dangers-of-democracy\/","url_meta":{"origin":3825,"position":1},"title":"The Dangers of Democracy","author":"victorhanson","date":"December 1, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce S. Thornton FrontPage Magazine The parliamentary elections that have begun in Egypt will impress only the most starry-eyed of democracy champions. These are the people who, like Senator Joe Lieberman, think that the \u201cArab Spring\u201d is all about people \u201cdemanding lives of democracy, dignity, economic opportunity, and involvement\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Muslim Brotherhood"","block_context":{"text":"Muslim Brotherhood","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/muslim-brotherhood\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3848,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/why-the-egyptian-revolution-can-be-the-best-or-worst-thing-to-happen\/","url_meta":{"origin":3825,"position":2},"title":"Why the Egyptian Revolution Can Be the Best or Worst Thing to Happen","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 5, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Raymond Ibrahim NRO's\u00a0The Corner It is clear that the media and its host of analysts are split in two camps on the Egyptian revolution: one that sees it as a wonderful expression of \"people-power\" that, left alone, will naturally culminate into some sort of pluralistic democracy, and another that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Egypt"","block_context":{"text":"Egypt","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/egypt\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3823,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/dumbing-democracy-down\/","url_meta":{"origin":3825,"position":3},"title":"Dumbing Democracy Down","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 20, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce S. Thornton Advancing a Free Society Many in the west are interpreting the demonstrations in Egypt against Hosni Mubarak as populist expressions of \u201caspirations for a democratic future,\u201d as a spokesman for British Prime Minister David Cameron put it. So too President Obama, who spoke of the \u201cuniversal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Bruce S. Thornton"","block_context":{"text":"Bruce S. Thornton","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/our-contributors\/bruce-s-thornton\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":634,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-democracy-delusion-and-failed-mideast-policy\/","url_meta":{"origin":3825,"position":4},"title":"The Democracy Delusion and Obama’s Failed Mideast Policy","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 19, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce Thornton Frontpage Magazine The\u00a0New York Times\u00a0headline on Secretary of State Clinton\u2019s visit to Egypt said it all: \u201cUS Is in a Quandary.\u201d That\u2019s putting it mildly. Better words for this administration\u2019s foreign policy are \u201cconfused,\u201d \u201ccontradictory,\u201d and \u201cdelusional.\u201d Start with Clinton\u2019s meeting with newly elected Egyptian president Mohammed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "The Middle East"","block_context":{"text":"The Middle East","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3066,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-fog-of-revolution\/","url_meta":{"origin":3825,"position":5},"title":"The Fog of Revolution","author":"victorhanson","date":"May 22, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce S. Thornton Advancing a Free Society Apart from celebratory statements applauding what looks like to us democratic \u201cpeople\u2019s revolutions\u201d against tyrannous autocrats, the uprisings sweeping across the Muslim Middle East have created great uncertainty for policy-makers as they try to calculate a response. Like war, revolutions take place\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Bruce S. Thornton"","block_context":{"text":"Bruce S. Thornton","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/our-contributors\/bruce-s-thornton\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3825"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3825"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3825\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5618,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3825\/revisions\/5618"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3825"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3825"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3825"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}