{"id":3461,"date":"2011-03-03T18:24:05","date_gmt":"2011-03-03T18:24:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com.108-166-28-151.mdgnetworks.com\/wordpress\/?p=3461"},"modified":"2013-03-27T18:26:40","modified_gmt":"2013-03-27T18:26:40","slug":"libya-without-gaddafi-what-to-expect-what-to-watch-for","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/libya-without-gaddafi-what-to-expect-what-to-watch-for\/","title":{"rendered":"Libya Without Gaddafi: What to Expect, What to Watch For"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>by Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n<p>NRO&#8217;s\u00a0<em>The Corner<\/em><\/p>\n<p>One of the most surreal experiences of my life \u2014 even apart from having a ruptured appendix and emergency surgery in a Gaddafi-government clinic \u2014 was a spring assignment in Libya to lecture on the Roman ruins there (which are quite impressive, since the neglect and ensuing 40 years of sand have, in counterintuitive fashion, been a protective cocoon from Gaddafi\u2019s far greater ravages).<!--more--><em><\/p>\n<p><\/em>It was like no other country I have ever visited: wet garbage and sewage in the streets; an oil-exporter with massive pot-holes and no asphalt to fix them; almost every room, office, or hallway in Tripoli with peeling paint, exposed wiring, and something broken; the airport a disaster; almost every human action a possible violation of some government statute.<em><\/p>\n<p><\/em>And, of course, Gaddafi\u2019s picture was everywhere \u2014 sometimes as the protector of Islam, sometimes a sort of new-age Stalin, sometimes as the spiritual leader of black Africa, always presented with a nauseating green backdrop. In fact, books, shirts, even simple packaging was green. Citizens were terrified and talked in whispers, often relating some of the strangest rumors imaginable: past calls to burn all violins, past calls for every citizen to raise chickens, past calls for bonuses for marrying black African nationals. I arrived the day Lionel Ritchie was playing a 20th-anniversary anti-American concert commemorating Gaddafi\u2019s heroic resistance to the Reagan bombing.<em><\/p>\n<p><\/em>In sum, Gaddafi seems to have managed to destroy almost everything he touched: infrastructure, normal human interaction, the energy industry, the media \u2014 every aspect of life bore his destructive handprint.<em><\/p>\n<p><\/em>So what does his apparent departure portend? Some random thoughts:<em><\/p>\n<p><\/em>1) This is the first totalitarian, collectivist terror-state to topple in this period of Middle Eastern unrest, which raises the question of whether others (e.g., Syria, Iran) might also face the same fate as Tunisia and Egypt, despite their willingness to shoot and kill indiscriminately and ban the international press.<em><\/p>\n<p><\/em>2) Gaddafi hated the United States. Anti-American propaganda was spoon-fed to the population hourly (I remember watching the evening newsreels\u2019\u00a0<em>ad nauseam<\/em>\u00a0depictions of US \u201ccrimes\u201d in Iraq). We are disliked by some countries\u2019 protesters for cozying up to Saudi, Tunisian, Egyptian, and Pakistani authoritarians; does it necessarily follow that we will be liked by the opponents of anti-American authoritarians? Does anti-anti-Americanism translate into pro-Americanism?<em><\/p>\n<p><\/em>I doubt it. In 2006, I heard constantly from my minders and others that Gaddafi was installed through some sort of US\/Zionist plot to impoverish Libya. In general, if the Middle East becomes more \u2018democratic\u2019 (as in plebiscites without constitutions), we should brace, at least in the beginning, for a grassroots outpouring of anti-Western, anti-American, and anti-Semitic venom, given what we have seen in various polls of popular opinion.<em><\/p>\n<p><\/em>3) We were far less culpable than the Europeans in dealing with this monster \u2014 especially the British and Italians, who simply overlooked Libyans\u2019 virtual imprisonment and looked for profits wherever possible.<em><\/p>\n<p><\/em>4) The country has great natural beauty, a stunning coastline, a central location, untapped gas and oil reserves (Gaddafi\u2019s incompetence often meant that oil was not so easy to extract and squander), incredible antiquities \u2014 and unlimited tourist and commercial potential should it ever embrace constitutional government.<em><\/p>\n<p><\/em>5) Libyans seemed to me terrified of Egyptians, including the tens of thousands of illegal-alien Egyptians in their country. The oil fields in their lightly populated country are a little too near for their comfort to the border of the oil-needy, overpopulated Egyptian powerhouse. The oil-rich border regions between the two countries will be of interest in the days ahead.<em><\/p>\n<p><\/em>6) What is the US official policy in all this? Is there a consistent one? When it came to encouraging anti-theocratic protesters in Iran, our policy was not to meddle; then we meddled quite a lot in anti-authoritarian protests in Egypt. Cannot the administration at last state that it supports non-violent, gradual transitions to consensual government, institutionalized secular human rights, and an independent judiciary \u2014 regardless of whether the overthrown government was hard-right authoritarian or hard-left totalitarian or theocratic Islamist? Since all governments and figures in the Middle East seem transitory, it would be far better to establish a policy that is principled and constant, no matter the ideologies and authoritarians involved.<em><\/p>\n<p><\/em>In other words, I think the Obama administration\u2019s \u201creset\u201d outreach to countries like Iran and Syria is moribund \u2014 as it should be. Oppressed peoples in nightmarish states do not care to hear of our efforts to reach out to their oppressors, multiculturalism or no multiculturalism.<\/p>\n<div align=\"center\">\n<p>\u00a92011 Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>by Victor Davis Hanson NRO&#8217;s\u00a0The Corner One of the most surreal experiences of my life \u2014 even apart from having a ruptured appendix and emergency surgery in a Gaddafi-government clinic \u2014 was a spring assignment in Libya to lecture on the Roman ruins there (which are quite impressive, since the neglect and ensuing 40 years [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[159],"tags":[233,12,173,1048,1016],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-TP","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":7048,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/seven-christians-executed-in-libya\/","url_meta":{"origin":3461,"position":0},"title":"Seven Christians Executed in Libya","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 25, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"by Raymond Ibrahim \/\/\u00a0RaymondIbrahim.com\u00a0 Libyan authorities came across the slain bodies of seven Christian Copts in the region of Garutha, less than 20 miles west of Benghazi, on Monday afternoon. According to Libyan authorities, \u201cThe slain were killed by gunshots all over their bodies.\u201d Pictures (reproduced above and below) confirm\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Libya&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Libya","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/libya\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3416,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/foreign-policy-as-wishful-thinking\/","url_meta":{"origin":3461,"position":1},"title":"Foreign Policy as Wishful Thinking","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 26, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce S. Thornton Advancing a Free Society The current military intervention in Libya by the West has been marketed with the claim that its purpose, as French President Sarkozy put it, is \u201cto protect the civilian population from the murderous madness of a regime that has forfeited all claim\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Libya&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Libya","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/libya\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2406,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/liberating-libya-for-jihadists\/","url_meta":{"origin":3461,"position":2},"title":"Liberating Libya for Jihadists","author":"victorhanson","date":"August 30, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce S. Thornton FrontPage Magazine The fall of Muammar Gaddafi is making some in the West giddy with the usual \u201cArab Spring\u201d wishful visions of democracy and freedom flourishing throughout the Muslim Middle East, even as the last binge of democratic intoxication, the fall of Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Libya&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Libya","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/libya\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3447,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/of-hawks-and-flies\/","url_meta":{"origin":3461,"position":3},"title":"Of Hawks and Flies","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 8, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce S. Thornton Advancing a Free Society The international order \u2014 comprising the United Nations, interstate diplomacy, organizations like NATO, and all the other transnational institutions that are supposed to keep the global peace and deter aggression \u2014 reminds me of the Spanish proverb about laws: they catch flies\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Bruce S. Thornton&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Bruce S. Thornton","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/our-contributors\/bruce-s-thornton\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3436,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/put-up-or-shut-up-obamas-foreign-policy-crossroads\/","url_meta":{"origin":3461,"position":4},"title":"Put Up or Shut Up: Obama&#8217;s Foreign Policy Crossroads","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 11, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Ricochet I\u00a0don't often agree with Pat Buchanan and am an occasional target of his magazine, but\u00a0his ideas\u00a0(which Peter\u00a0highlighted in an earlier post\u00a0on\u00a0Ricochet) are at least always provocative and he is right that we need a debate on what we can afford and what not, and why\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Foreign Policy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Foreign Policy","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/obama-administration\/foreign-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2416,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/a-lovely-little-nato-intervention\/","url_meta":{"origin":3461,"position":5},"title":"A Lovely Little NATO Intervention","author":"victorhanson","date":"August 25, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce S. Thornton FrontPage Magazine World powers sometimes have to fight wars not for some material interest, but for bolstering a nation\u2019s prestige in order to deter more dangerous aggressors. As Margaret Thatcher said after England\u2019s defeat of Argentina in the 1982 Falklands War, the conflict showed that \u201cnow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Bruce S. Thornton&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Bruce S. Thornton","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/our-contributors\/bruce-s-thornton\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3461"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3461"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3461\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3462,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3461\/revisions\/3462"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}