{"id":3347,"date":"2011-04-14T18:04:42","date_gmt":"2011-04-14T18:04:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com.108-166-28-151.mdgnetworks.com\/wordpress\/?p=3347"},"modified":"2013-03-26T18:07:59","modified_gmt":"2013-03-26T18:07:59","slug":"the-razors-edge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-razors-edge\/","title":{"rendered":"The Razor&#8217;s Edge"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>by Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n<p><em>PJ Media<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>California in the Balance<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We calibrate California\u2019s decline by its myriad of paradoxes. The nation\u2019s highest bundle of gas, sales, and income taxes cannot close the nation\u2019s largest annual deficit at $25 billion. <!--more-->Test scores are at the country\u2019s near bottom; teachers\u2019 salaries at the very top. Scores of the affluent are leaving each week; scores of the indigent are arriving. The nation\u2019s most richly endowed state is also the most regulated; the most liberal of our residents are also the most ready to practice apartheid in their Bel Air or Palo Alto enclaves.<\/p>\n<p>We now see highway patrolmen and city police, in the manner of South American law enforcement, out in force. Everywhere they are monitoring, watching, ticketing \u2014 no warnings, no margins of error \u2014 desperate to earn traffic fines that might feed the state that feeds them. I could go on. But you get the picture that we are living on the fumes of a rich state that our forefathers brilliantly exploited, and now there is not much energy left in the fading exhaust to keep us going.<\/p>\n<p>I see California in terms now of the razor\u2019s edge with disaster not far in either direction. A postmodern affluent lifestyle hangs in the balance here without a margin of error. Let me give some examples.<\/p>\n<p>I drive a lot on the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/California_State_Route_99\">99 Freeway<\/a>\u00a0[1] both northward and southward. (What follows would apply to the 101 as well, or, in fact, to most state \u201cfreeways.\u201d) In vast stretches of the 99 it is unchanged from the two lanes when I first began driving in 1969, but now with worse pavement, larger potholes, and treacherous shoulders. Yet the state then had about 20, not 37 million people, and around 12 million licensed drivers, not well over 25 million (and who knows how many unlicensed drivers?). Nonetheless, our ancestors were brilliant sorts, and left us a well-engineered and planned grid that can still handle all sorts of the minor challenges. So on a day of perfect weather, with good drivers, at low traffic hours between 9 and 2, and without ongoing road maintenance or construction, I can make the 190 miles to either Sacramento or Los Angeles in three hours \u2014 just as I used to in far older, less reliable cars of thirty years past.<\/p>\n<p>But that is rare these days. You see, there are too many proverbial ifs now. Tamper with just one variable \u2014 leave too early or return too late; have some rain or fog; have one of the two lanes shut down for anything from tree trimming to pothole filling; experience one idiot whose lawn-mower or paint sprayer fell out of his open flatbed truck \u2014 and the fragile system shuts completely down, creating paralysis for thousands of backed-up drivers. For our generation\u2019s grid to work as it should, we would need three lanes, in good condition, perhaps four \u2014 and a pool of drivers who were all trained, licensed, registered, and insured. But you see, we had other priorities and values the last twenty years and so we took for granted the freeways we inherited. So we indulged and as the proverbially obese clogged our arteries.<\/p>\n<p>Consider also regulation. In a vast state of 20 million in 1970 few cared that there were new building code rules and mounting new labor statutes. All sorts of innovative bureaucracies\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.commentarymagazine.com\/article\/california-there-it-went\/\">came on line<\/a>\u00a0[2]. I remember the mosquito abatement jeeps spraying pools suddenly everywhere to stop mosquito-born disease; the country dog people were out in force checking for licenses and shots on your farm to eradicate even the rumor of rabies. Now fast forward to 37 million residents, with a vast new government superstructure and we have become both the most and the least regulated. The poor broke highway patrolman sits on the corner, straining his neck to find a cell-phone user who is a sure thing for a $200 hit. Yet he would hardly wish to drive two miles away along a rural pond where a dishwasher is tossed in open daylight \u2014 the former involves money and the law-abiding, the latter nothing but all sorts of unimaginable costs and trouble. So the message for the Californian is to toss the refrigerator out in the pond, but don\u2019t dare use that cell phone while waiting for the green light. I rode my bike (idiocy, of course, being defined by doing the same thing as led to catastrophe a month ago) by a cluster of trailers and shacks the other day and quickly surmised that it would take about 10 bureaucratic divisions \u2014 EPA, building permit regulators, law enforcement, child protective services, health department, animal control, hazardous waste \u2014 to deal with the pathologies apparent to the passing naked eye, and so understood that we must grant the new homesteaders\u00a0<em>de facto<\/em>\u00a0freedom by virtue of their lawlessness, and as compensation try to make more unfree the lawful, whose transgressions are rare as they are lucrative.<\/p>\n<p>Water is the same. Give California two wet, snow-filled years, as we have had between 2010-2011, and we look like Ireland. This year the gleeful environmentalists will watch the Kings and San Joaquin Rivers run unimpeded from the Sierra, in all their 19th-century glory. The 1920s-era reservoirs are full; the 1960s canals brimming with water. Those who damn Henry Huntington\u2019s wondrous 1912 Big Creek Hydroelectric Project as ecologically hurtful will be out in force sailing all summer on his beautiful manmade eponymous 1912 lake. Even the cut-off West Side farmers may get a sort of irrigation reprieve: there is too much rather than too little water this year, as even the park benches at the lower rivers\u2019 edges are now underwater.<\/p>\n<p>But again there is no margin of error as we will soon learn again when the dry times come as they always do.\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/pajamasmedia.com\/eddriscoll\/2011\/03\/17\/new-silicon-graffiti-video-forward-into-the-past\/\">We haven\u2019t built a big new dam<\/a>\u00a0[3] or a new major canal in decades as the population and its appetites soared, and the postmodern cynicism about \u201cbuilding things\u201d became entrenched. So the huge snowpack this year will melt and with it millions of acre feet will flow to the ocean rather than be stored for next year. California can export $15 billion in food, and support 37 million \u2014 but only every third year on average when the snow and rain reach 125% of their yearly averages. We forget that when there is water here, there is usually money in California \u2014 more crops, more tax revenue; less pumping, less costs; more recreation, more tourist dollars. And when there is not, there is not so much.<\/p>\n<p>Illegal immigration enjoys the same precariousness. I remember the days when we had somewhere between 200,000 and 400,000 illegal immigrants. They were surrounded by Mexican-Americans, Asians, whites, and blacks (and by a confident culture), and so by needs learned English and assimilated, intermarried, and integrated. It was rare to find an abandoned car in your vineyard that had swerved the night before and taken out 20 vines. I heard Spanish spoken, but rarely heard indigenous languages from Oaxaca or encountered those illiterate in both Spanish and English, who asked for translation help at a government office despite bilingual documentation.<\/p>\n<p>But up that number of illegal immigrants (and with them commensurate disrespect for the federal immigration laws) to 4, 5, or perhaps even 6 million illegals, and then factor in a beleaguered second generation, whose parents were not legal, did not speak English, and did not have high-school diplomas, and we reach the proverbial tipping point. What would that look like superficially in an average week? A bag of trash stuffed with Spanish-language bills and ads tossed beside your mailbox; going to the store and hearing one English speaker among ten non-English speakers, while waiting, waiting, waiting in line as the poor checker struggles with all sorts of multiple and expired plastic food stamp cards; seeing dozens of the unemployed milling around Wal-Mart or Home Depot dour and looking for cash work; or preferring to wait for a Monday doctor visit rather than dare go to an emergency room (the last time I tried I was considered a veritable freak for speaking English, having health insurance, and a more serious condition of a broken arm). Give California 200,000 illegals, and it assimilates them; give it over 4 million and a new ideology, and it begins to become overwhelmed.<\/p>\n<p>Let us end with development. We did not object to growing to 37 million, but most certainly to accommodating them. So let us limit nasty oil pumping off shore. Let us curb awful timber cutting. Why not save\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB10001424052970204731804574384731898375624.html\">the noble smelt<\/a>\u00a0[4] and idle superfluous acreage? There is surely no more need for more neanderthal hydroelectric projects of the old blast-away sort. New nuclear plants would be even worse. Tasteful open spaces are great along the coastal corridor, so let us stop most new ugly housing construction there and all that it brings. Who is to say you should still live in California when someone in Oaxaca, someone far needier, cannot? I could go on, but right here, I fear, is a recipe for an energy hungry, food hungry, wood hungry, power hungry, overtaxed and undereducated state, where one cannot find an affordable house on the coast, and not sell a cheap one in the interior.<\/p>\n<p>I leave on a note of optimism. All this is self-correcting. Jerry Brown cannot hike the income and sales tax much or hire legions of new SEIU employees or up dramatically the salaries of state workers or lower the standards at the UC or CSU university systems or open wide the border or cut off more water, because we know where it all leads \u2014 to pushing us either onto or over the razor\u2019s edge.<\/p>\n<hr align=\"left\" width=\"40%\" \/>\n<p>URLs in this post:<br \/>\n[1] 99 Freeway: http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/California_State_Route_99<br \/>\n[2] came on line: http:\/\/www.commentarymagazine.com\/article\/california-there-it-went\/<br \/>\n[3] We haven\u2019t built a big new dam: http:\/\/pajamasmedia.com\/eddriscoll\/2011\/03\/17\/new-silicon-graffiti-video-forward-into-the-past\/<br \/>\n[4] the noble smelt: http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB10001424052970204731804574384731898375624.html<\/p>\n<div align=\"center\">\n<p>\u00a92011 Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>by Victor Davis Hanson PJ Media California in the Balance We calibrate California\u2019s decline by its myriad of paradoxes. The nation\u2019s highest bundle of gas, sales, and income taxes cannot close the nation\u2019s largest annual deficit at $25 billion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[16],"tags":[643,1014,77,1057,581,268,473,410,389],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-RZ","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6467,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-myth-of-a-california-renaissance\/","url_meta":{"origin":3347,"position":0},"title":"The Myth of a California Renaissance","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 12, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Sacramento's strategy for recovery is more taxes, more regulation, and more government. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/\u00a0National Review Online\u00a0 Are the recent raves about a new California renaissance true? Rolling Stone\u00a0magazine just gushed that California governor Jerry Brown has brought the state back from the brink of \u201cdouble-digit unemployment, a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;California&quot;","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/california\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/SF_From_Marin_Highlands3-300x211.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1998,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-california-mordida\/","url_meta":{"origin":3347,"position":1},"title":"The California Mordida","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 14, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services California now works on the principle of the\u00a0mordida, or \"bite.\" Its government assumes that it can take something extra from residents for the privilege of living in their special state. Gov. Jerry Brown made that assumption explicit in his latest back-and-forth with Texas\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;California&quot;","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/california\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3836,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/jerry-brown-modern-sisyphus\/","url_meta":{"origin":3347,"position":2},"title":"Jerry Brown, Modern Sisyphus","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 14, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services California Gov. Jerry Brown must rapidly close a $25 billion budgetary shortfall. But right now it seems almost a hopeless task since the state's disastrous budget is a symptom, not the cause, of California's much larger nightmare. Take unemployment. It currently runs 12.6\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;California&quot;","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/california\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":407,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/bankrupt-california\/","url_meta":{"origin":3347,"position":3},"title":"Bankrupt California","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 12, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online I\u00a0thought of my fellow Californian Energy Secretary Steven Chu last week, when I paid $4.89 a gallon in Gilroy for regular gas \u2014 and had to wait in line to get it. The customers were in near revolt, but I wondered against what\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;California&quot;","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/california\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":511,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/there-is-no-california\/","url_meta":{"origin":3347,"position":4},"title":"There Is No California","author":"victorhanson","date":"August 20, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services Driving across California is like going from Mississippi to Massachusetts without ever crossing a state line. Consider the disconnects: California's combined income and sales taxes are among the nation's highest, but the state's deficit is still about $16 billion. It's estimated that more\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;California&quot;","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/california\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5707,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/krugmans-california-dreaming\/","url_meta":{"origin":3347,"position":5},"title":"Krugman&#8217;s California Dreaming","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 11, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online It is rare, even in the case of Paul Krugman, to read a column in which almost everything that is stated is either wrong or deliberately misleading. But his\u00a0recent take\u00a0on California\u2019s renaissance is pure fantasy. I wish it weren\u2019t. 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