by Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n
National Review Online<\/em><\/p>\n Every once in a while, the world is turned upside down in just a few years, whether by ideological ferment or force of arms. We may be entering such a phase now \u2014 unsure whether the unrest in the Middle East, the rise of China, and the crisis in the EU will sputter and dissipate like the upheavals of 1848 or make the world unrecognizable in the way that Alexander the Great\u2019s ten-year romp, the fall of Constantinople, World War I, World War II, and the collapse of Soviet Communism changed the very map of Europe and Asia.<\/p>\n The question is not whether Greece will default on its massive debt, but, rather, when it does, whether the inevitable default will spread to Spain, Portugal, or even Italy and unravel the European Union, or simply be confined to Greece, returning it to its genteel poverty of the 1970s. Either way, a much weakened Greece will watch an ascendant and Islamist Turkey exercise, in Ottoman fashion, its newfound influence in the Aegean, Cyprus, and the Eastern Mediterranean.<\/p>\n But in geopolitical terms, these are small potatoes compared with the position of Germany, which for a fourth time in 140 years is beginning to feel, fairly or not, that it is put upon by its neighbors. Again, the key is not whether EU countries to the south and the east are living beyond their means by virtue of German capital, but whether Germans believe that they are \u2014 and feel that they are doing so willing and knowingly. If the latter, then we will began to appreciate why the original architects of both the EU and NATO were not utopians like their grandchildren, but hard-bitten realists who were desperate to find a solution to the \u201cGerman problem\u201d of a dynamic but often aggrieved culture, by making its foreign policy indistinguishable from that of the rest of Europe and the United States. A united, economically dominant Germany that feels it is being conned is a very dangerous thing indeed.<\/p>\n In many ways, China resembles the Japan of the late 1920s \u2014 singular economic growth, modernization, and defense ascendancy by virtue of cherry-picking the Western paradigm: embracing capitalist modes of production and Western science and technology, while rejecting Western notions of individual freedom and institutionalized constitutional government.<\/p>\n Just as the Philippines, China, and the regional colonial powers felt apprehensive in 1930, so now do the Philippines, Indochina, and Japan \u2014 especially since the United States\u2019 current stance seems to resemble the role it played in the 1930s more than its omnipresence between 1945 and 2008. Both imperial Japan and present-day China first sought to reshape the economy of the western Pacific as a prelude to an overt expression of their increasing military power. Even more disturbing, the United States in 2011, as in the 1930s, is judged in the region to be a spent financial power whose lackluster economy reflects supposed deep-seated, insurmountable pathologies.<\/p>\n Yet on the plus side, China, also like imperial Japan, may belatedly find that consensual government and individual freedom are essential lubricants to free-market capitalism, which at some point either sputters or self-destructs when liberty is denied. In any case, the Chinese have a rendezvous with unionism, class strife, environmental cleanup on a massive scale, and the 19th-century-style disorientation that follows the sudden shift from farm to factory. The only enigma is whether that impending social unrest will be expressed only internally or will vent itself through foreign adventurism.<\/p>\n The unrest in the Middle East resembles the liberation movements in Africa and Asia of the late 1940s and early 1950s, as independent nations sprung up to replace the old colonial powers. In both cases, optimism about a new world clouded reasoned judgment about the chances of consensual government without continued Western dominance in these regions. Yes, neoconservatives are delighted that monarchs, theocrats, military dictatorships, and authoritarian psychopaths are all threatened by popular unrest that proclaims a democratic yearning; and, yes, realists are not unhappy that the chaos and turmoil seems to be weakening many regimes that are anti-American, while diminishing the old unified Arab Street\u2019s pathetic cheerleading for radical Islam.<\/p>\n But so far, the commonality in all these cases of unrest is a singular absence of reflection and introspection. Just as Asian and African strongmen six decades ago assured their people that British and French colonialists were the source of all their problems as they wrecked their new nations, so today protesters blame a Qaddafi, Assad, Mubarak, or Ben Ali on \u201cthem\u201d (fill in the blank with Jews, Europeans, Americans, or all three), never on themselves. Nonetheless, one would have to invent an Assad or a Mubarak had they not existed \u2014 given the endemic gender apartheid, tribalism in lieu of meritocracy, suspicion of science and modernism, religious fundamentalism and intolerance, and conspiracy theories in place of reason. So far we hear few Middle East reformers brave enough to say that Muslim Middle Easterners\u2019 problems are not in the stars but in themselves \u2014 or that their almost uniformly wretched leaders were not foreign impositions, but tragic reifications of collective values and unquestioned mindsets.<\/p>\n Then we come to America. This administration, or so we are told, now believes we must \u201clead from behind\u201d given our supposed inevitable decline and persistent unpopularity. But this is surely a crackpot theory extrapolated from the faculty lounge. In truth, viewed against most of the world, the United States remains a bastion of sanity, stability, and tolerance, where dozens of races, religions, and factions adjudicate differences as peacefully as they do it by violence abroad.<\/p>\n In terms of energy, never have America\u2019s fossil-fuel reserves been known to be more vast. For the first time in a half-century, inspired leadership really could make America \u201cenergy independent\u201d by full use of natural gas and methane, combined with increased oil, nuclear, and coal production. As the world totters on the brink of famine, American farms have never been more productive \u2014 or strategically important. The US military has never been more tried, more experienced, or more lethal. Global brands like Apple, Microsoft, and Google are not flukes but natural expressions of the world\u2019s most innovative and open-minded society. Our great crisis \u2014 astronomical debt \u2014 is one of will, not resources. We have the capital but not yet the sense of urgency to pay down our trillions, something we could do in a mere four or five years, without a traumatic loss of lifestyle, should the country find the courage to do so.<\/p>\n Of course, in the short term we may conclude that it is strategically advantageous to \u201clead from behind,\u201d or we may wish to do so out of an aggrieved and warranted sense of\u00a0Schadenfreude<\/em>, but again, such a new global stance is a matter of choice, not of fated decline.<\/p>\n America has never had greater strength or potential \u2014 and we should remember that as the rest of the world around us seems about to be turned upside down.<\/p>\n \u00a92011 Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online Every once in a while, the world is turned upside down in just a few years, whether by ideological ferment or force of arms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[194],"tags":[540,612,1063,1066,1028,442,1047,122,1056,1016,444,1072,1068],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-Ob","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6026,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-stagnant-mediterranean\/","url_meta":{"origin":3111,"position":0},"title":"The Stagnant Mediterranean","author":"victorhanson","date":"June 6, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Socialism and Islamism don't foster a climate of economic growth and security. by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online From the heights of Gibraltar you can see Africa about nine miles away to the south \u2014 and gaze eastward on the seemingly endless Mediterranean, which stretches 2,400 miles to Asia.\u00a0Mare\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/europe\/economy-europe\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10684,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-deadly-cost-of-mutual-misunderstanding\/","url_meta":{"origin":3111,"position":1},"title":"The Deadly Cost of Mutual Misunderstanding","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 26, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 Hitler went to war without an accurate conception of the Allies\u2019 strength. The Allies did the same without an accurate conception of Hitler\u2019s ambition. Unprecedented bloodshed ensued. Editor\u2019s Note: The following is the third in a series of excerpts adapted from Victor Davis\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "War"","block_context":{"text":"War","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/war\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":975,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/which-way-greece\/","url_meta":{"origin":3111,"position":2},"title":"Which Way Greece?","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 12, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson NRO's The Corner One question that rarely arises about Greece is \u201cwhere did all those hundreds of billions of Euros really go?\u201d I think most visitors could easily answer that they were not all squandered on pensions and inflated government staffs and salaries. The Greece of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Greece"","block_context":{"text":"Greece","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/europe\/greece\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5914,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/an-irrelevant-middle-east\/","url_meta":{"origin":3111,"position":3},"title":"An Irrelevant Middle East","author":"victorhanson","date":"May 2, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Thanks to oil discoveries elsewhere, the region is losing its geostrategic clout. by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online Since antiquity, the Middle East has been the trading nexus of three continents \u2014 Asia, Europe, and Africa \u2014 and the vibrant birthplace of three of the world\u2019s great religions. Middle\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/europe\/economy-europe\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":894,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-sick-man-of-europe\/","url_meta":{"origin":3111,"position":4},"title":"The Sick Man of Europe","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 18, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Defining Ideas Why are the Greeks such whiners? Look to their tragic history and geography.\u00a0 Not long ago, European Union bankers gave the Greeks a \u20ac110 billion bailout \u2014 along with stern recommendations to stop cooking their books, to go after tax cheaters, to trim fat\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/europe\/economy-europe\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6628,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/america-is-intervened-out\/","url_meta":{"origin":3111,"position":5},"title":"America Is Intervened Out","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 15, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Our security interests have changed, along with out sense that we can make a difference. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/\u00a0National Review Online\u00a0 n the immediate future, I do not think the United States will be intervening abroad on the ground \u2014 not in the Middle East or, for that matter,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Syria"","block_context":{"text":"Syria","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/syria\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3111"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3111"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3111\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3113,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3111\/revisions\/3113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}