by Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n
PJ Media<\/em><\/p>\n Actions often have unforeseen consequences. Throughout the campaign and the first few months of the new administration, Barack Obama adopted a number of personas and positions that only now may be coming back to haunt him. Or in the words of the right Reverend Wright the proverbial \u201cchickens are coming home to roost.\u201d<\/p>\n 1) The Wars<\/strong><\/p>\n Obama and the Democrats once understandably figured that the war in Afghanistan was nearly won (between 2002-5 fewer of our soldiers were dying in an entire year there than in a single bloody month in Iraq), while (to quote Harry Reid) Iraq was already \u201clost.\u201d Obama, like most, not only opposed the surge, but claimed it would be counterproductive.<\/p>\n In contrast, Obama promised that he\u2019d be tough in Afghanistan, pursue enemies hotly into Pakistan, and not take \u201chis eye off the ball\u201d of the theater as did Bush. \u201cLet me at \u2018em\u201d was the mood (sort of like the cartoon character who swings furiously and wildly at the air while his larger companion holds him up by the scruff of the neck.)<\/p>\n Remember that in early 2007 when Obama was beginning his campaign, Afghanistan was still thought of as the \u201cgood\u201d war \u2014 U.N. approved, mostly quiet with few fatalities (e.g., 59 in all of 2005), and directly linked with the Taliban, 9\/11, and Osama bin Laden.<\/p>\n Iraq, in contrast, was the thoroughly bad war \u2014 and became even messier as the controversial surge peaked fatalities. Remember the \u201cGeneral Betray Us\u201d ads?<\/p>\n Iraq was seen as George Bush\u2019s albatross, as the once supportive Democrats (cf. the Democratic pluralities who voted to authorize the war in the October 10-11, 2002 votes) had long ago bailed. A wild-eyed public that polled 79% in favor of the war in May 2003 (despite the daily media blaring that there were no weapons of mass destruction), by 2006 was polling only 35% in favor. By 2006 and 2008 the opposition to the Iraqi war was Democratic manna \u2014 especially as Obama and others in contrast sought national security cover in chest-thumping about Afghanistan. Remember the Obama promise to bring all combat brigades home from Iraq by \u201cMarch 31, 2008\u201d?<\/p>\n But there were a few problems.<\/p>\n 1) By inauguration, Iraq was already on the road to being saved. This year far more have been killed in Afghanistan than in Iraq; five Americans were lost so far this month in Iraq; 57 in Afghanistan \u2014 ten times the losses of the former!<\/p>\n 2) the problem with \u201csurging\u201d is now not Bush\u2019s Iraq version which worked, but Obama\u2019s necessary Afghan reinforcement whose efficacy remains to be seen;<\/p>\n 3) Obama and the Democrats may have not grasped that security and consensual government in Afghanistan were always the tougher propositions \u2014 a country landlocked, with harsh weather, difficult terrain, an illiterate populace, and poor, nuclear Pakistan next door; while Iraq was always the more viable \u2014 ports, oil, vital location, easy terrain and access, greater numbers of secular and literate citizenry;<\/p>\n 4) Yes, Afghanistan was directly linked to 9\/11. But if the \u2018war on terror\u2019 was really about radical Islam and its nexus with sponsoring Middle East tyrants and autocracies, then the removal of Saddam would cause in its own right positive ripples in a rather wider region. Iran, for example, was not perennially \u201cempowered\u201d by our removal of Saddam, as the conventional wisdom insisted the last six years. In fact, Ahmadinejad may be now threatened by the idea of a Shiite-majority democracy nearby, one that conducts itself in a fashion that isipso facto<\/em>\u00a0destabilizing to its nearby theocratic cousin and its millions of the unhappy. Iranian popular angst increased after the fostering of Iraqi democracy.<\/p>\n Bottom line? Obama \u2014 rightfully so \u2014 committed himself to winning a good war in Afghanistan, and now he must accomplish what was a far more challenging proposition than he ever imagined. His doom-and-gloom assertions about Iraq proved wrong, and now in turn he must oversee what may well turn out to be a George Bush-inspired successful constitutional government in the heart of the ancient caliphate.<\/p>\n It is true that the liberal media will give Obama far more leeway (note how violence in Afghanistan and Iraq are not so much on the front pages as in the Bush years; and note how Hollywood will produce no more movies like\u00a0Rendition<\/em>\u00a0or\u00a0Valley of Elah<\/em>\u00a0about an unpopular war). In addition, the anti-war left \u2014 for now \u2014 will go easier on kindred Commander-in-Chief Obama. The Democrats in Congress, of course, will become suddenly pro-war in Afghanistan as they were once anti-Bush on Iraq. But all that said, again, Afghanistan won\u2019t be easy. Security and a stable Afghan consensual government will mean Obama cannot vote present. As the casualties mount, so will the left-wing base agitate to galvanize public opinion against the war \u2014 and the media will make the necessary adjustments.<\/p>\n Conclusion? Obama should have never blustered about our supposedly hopeless situation in Iraq and his own eagerness to escalate in Afghanistan. Now we expect him to reify his campaign rhetoric. But he cannot easily wish to flee Iraq and turn victory into defeat there; nor easily surge in Afghanistan and have that once good war become Obama\u2019s messy own.<\/p>\n 2) Race<\/strong><\/p>\n Obama could have downplayed identity politics, and stayed true to his message of racial irrelevance \u2014 despite the temptation of hyping the novelty and mystique of his heritage and of tapping the ever present font of white guilt. He could have run as a Colin Powell\/Condoleezza Rice-like figure who saw race as incidental, never essential to his persona.<\/p>\n Instead Obama chose the hyphenated route. That identification paid dividends in the primaries as his newfound black fides in key states helped to swamp liberal Hillary, wife of our first \u201cblack\u201d President. Suddenly Democrats of all people were voting on mostly black\/white lines. Subsequently in his\u00a0hubris<\/em>, Obama and his surrogates could from time to time lecture the citizenry on their assorted bias and sins, from racial profiling and stupid policing to their cowardly aversion to racial conversations.<\/p>\n But now what follows from that? When Obama\u2019s polls dived \u2014 as they once did likewise for Carter, Reagan, Clinton, and Bush \u2014 critics could prove to be loud and obnoxious. But in reaction, as the President\u2019s unpopularity mounts, does he then go back to the buckler of race again \u2014 but this time castigating the public for its intemperance rather than as before appealing to its liberalism? Let us get this straight: Americans have transcended race when they voted for Obama, but revert to hopeless racists when they critique him in the manner of past skepticism about Presidential policy?<\/p>\n One can see how the issue can explode as it did with the Gatesgate incident. And when the inept and unpopular Gov. Patterson (D\u2014NY) cried \u201cracism\u201d in New York, the gambit proved devastatingly counter-productive. In short, Obama is now simply a normal President with sliding polls; if he tries to evoke his singular heritage in his decline for political advantage as he did in his ascendancy with real profit, his Presidency could implode. The current public has had it with blame-gaming and victimization of any sort, and will have little tolerance for any who play that card.<\/p>\n 3) Media<\/strong><\/p>\n It used to be sort of cute to talk of media bias in favor of Obama. The President even made jokes about the infatuation, adding insult to injury in the sense he (ungratefully) seemed to be laughing at the mainstream media for mortgaging their reputations to enlist in his cause. Robert Gibbs in his first few days presided over an \u201cenchanted\u201d throng, not the usual attack-dog press.<\/p>\n But now?<\/p>\n It will be hard to believe administration complaints about the YouTube-hyped coverage of the Town-Hallers and Tea-Partiers. Obama and Company have already complained that the media has jazzed up the healthcare protests and that media frenzy is in part responsible for sinking poll numbers. But once you crow over how you\u2019ve mesmerized the print and electronic press, it simply does not work trashing them for unfair reporting. Again, be careful of the climate that you construct.<\/p>\n 4) Dissent and the Good Protestor<\/strong><\/p>\n Between 2001-8, luminaries like Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama were sympathetic to those protesting on the barricades. Anti-Bush demonstrations were welcomed. Pelosi even praised the loud antics of Moveon.org. How many times were we lectured about \u201ccommunity organizing\u201d? Remember ACORN? The call for grass-roots action in\u00a0The Audacity of Hope<\/em>? The Obama tenure on the Annenberg Foundation?<\/p>\n Once upon a time, we were supposed to think two things about protests: 1) they were good, since they served as teachable moments about the evil Bush\/Cheney nexus, Iraq, and the pseudo-war on terror; 2) and Barack Obama was a barricades sort of guy who organized the people to stand up to the establishment. (Cf. Michelle Obama\u2019s warning about her husband\u2019s organizing talents when he was elected to the Senate.)<\/p>\n And now?<\/p>\n What about these Town-Hallers and Tea-Party activists? By virtue of speaking truth to power, are they likewise patriotic and authentic voices of dissent? Or have they become disruptive, unpatriotic, and mean-spirited by virtue of opposing The One? Again, be careful what you wish for. If you believe in town hall organizing, prepare to get town hall organized.<\/p>\n 5) The Extremes<\/strong><\/p>\n Also once upon a time, a leftist used to write a novel about killing George Bush (cf. Nicholson Baker\u2019s\u00a0Checkpoint<\/em>). Mainstream figures from John Glen to Al Gore compared their President to Nazis and brown shirts. A movie envisioning the killing of Bush won acclaim. Michael Moore weighed in, from hoping the insurgent \u201cminutemen\u201d won in Iraq to lamenting the fact that bin Laden had hit a blue-state. The race card was played constantly: Harry Belafonte slurred Colin Powell as a house slave; Howard Dean accused Republicans of Jim-Crow like attitudes. To read the\u00a0New York Times<\/em>\u2019 Paul Krugman, Maureen Dowd, Bob Herbert, or Frank Rich was to experience a visceral hatred toward George Bush. I could go on. The Left after 2002 had become the Right circa 1951 \u2014 often unhinged, humorless, prone to conspiracy theory, full of venom.<\/p>\n Few moderate Democrats objected; Michael Moore was even courted at his premiere by Democratic kingpins. No one advised a Dick Durban, Ted Kennedy, or John Kerry to cool the rhetoric about American soldiers as terrorists, Saddamists, Nazis, and Pol Pot. The result is that there is now an established loud, furious leftwing base that during the Bush years became inured to bombastic rhetoric and was not open to reasonable debate and disagreement.<\/p>\n Obama rode to victory on such activism. He surfed on the crest of the loud anti-war movement. He voiced no dissent amid the twenty-years of Rev. Wright vitriol that cemented his reputation as an authentic black Chicagoan. We all knew that extremists like Bill Ayers and Father Pfleger were closer to Obama than he let on.<\/p>\n The result is that President Obama, to be consistent, should see as healthy any grass roots movement against establishment policies. And his own past activism and rhetoric leave him little wiggle room in the present healthcare debates \u2014 a crisis that was entirely fabricated by his own effort to ram through in a matter of days a 1,000-page mess that would radically change the American economy.<\/p>\n Yet already in the healthcare raucous, he is being attacked for going soft by liberal activists. Furious left-wingers pounce on him for not going negative and confronting the Town-Hallers. Base supporters wonder whether he is partisan enough (ironic \u2014 since polls show that he is sinking because of his partisanship and statism that are losing independents and moderates), and urge him to take off the gloves.<\/p>\n Again, life is rough for the community organizer who is getting out community organized.<\/p>\n Call all this what you will \u2014 the ends don\u2019t justify the means; what comes around goes around; be careful what you wish for, etc. But the fact is that the President has now been boxed in \u2014 by the President himself.<\/p>\n \u00a92009 Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" by Victor Davis Hanson PJ Media Actions often have unforeseen consequences. Throughout the campaign and the first few months of the new administration, Barack Obama adopted a number of personas and positions that only now may be coming back to haunt him.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[653],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-Bz","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":2066,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/our-flip-flopping-wars\/","url_meta":{"origin":2329,"position":0},"title":"Our Flip-Flopping Wars","author":"victorhanson","date":"December 21, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services We don't hear all that much about Iraq these days, do we? The war at one point almost tore apart this country. Public anger sent George W. Bush's approval ratings plummeting. And the outrage over our losses helped elect vocal anti-Iraq-war candidate Barack\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "December 2009"","block_context":{"text":"December 2009","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2009\/december-2009\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2319,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/war-what-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":2329,"position":1},"title":"War–What War?","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 2, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services The anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan headed to Martha's Vineyard this week, where President Obama is vacationing. Once again she is protesting our two wars abroad. But Sheehan is a media has-been. ABC's Charlie Gibson used to cover her anti-Bush rallies in Crawford, Texas.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "September 2009"","block_context":{"text":"September 2009","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2009\/september-2009\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2109,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/dean-obama\/","url_meta":{"origin":2329,"position":2},"title":"Dean Obama","author":"victorhanson","date":"December 2, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson NRO's\u00a0The Corner That was such a strange speech. Deploring partisanship while serially trashing Bush at each new talking point. Sending more troops, but talking more about when they will come home rather than what they will do to the enemy. There was nothing much new in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "December 2009"","block_context":{"text":"December 2009","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2009\/december-2009\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7562,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/obama-quits-afghanistan\/","url_meta":{"origin":2329,"position":3},"title":"Obama Quits Afghanistan","author":"victorhanson","date":"June 12, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Bringing Bergdahl home was useful for closing Gitmo and winding down the war. by\u00a0Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online Soon we shall get to the bottom of the swap of five Taliban kingpins from the Guantanamo Bay detention facility for one Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl. In time we will learn\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "The Middle East"","block_context":{"text":"The Middle East","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Photo via AFP Photo by Peter Muhly","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/2obama-gitmo-hunger-strike.si_-500x281.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2197,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/narcissus-in-chief\/","url_meta":{"origin":2329,"position":4},"title":"Narcissus-in-Chief","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 22, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson NRO's\u00a0The Corner While our Narcissus-in-Chief is frozen gazing at his perfect image in his private pool, choices have to be made in Afghanistan. Consider the following: (a) We have a Democratically controlled Congress that by and large has supported, since 2004, the Kerry-Obama-Hillary Clinton narrative of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "October 2009"","block_context":{"text":"October 2009","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2009\/october-2009\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6457,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/predictably-misleading\/","url_meta":{"origin":2329,"position":5},"title":"Predictably Misleading","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 12, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/\u00a0NRO's The Corner\u00a0 The one requisite in a presidential speech is honesty. Without it, nothing else matters. The president\u2019s speech last night was incoherent in its call to be ready at some future day to use force that he just recently insisted must be used immediately.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commentary"","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/obama-administration\/commentary-obama-administration\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2329"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2329"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2329\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2330,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2329\/revisions\/2330"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}