by Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n
National Review Online<\/em><\/p>\n By 1930 Verdun had been transmogrified almost into a dirty word in French schools. Throughout the late 1920s, the First World War was increasingly reinterpreted in the West as a futile bloodletting. International \u201cMerchants of Death\u201d and greedy capitalists, not the Kaiser\u2019s aggressive Prussian militarism, were now seen as the true causes of that recent horrific war. A punitive Versailles Treaty \u2014 and not the failure to invade, occupy, democratize, monitor, and transform a defeated Germany \u2014 was seen as the real mistake on the part of the victors.<\/p>\n Britain and France all but disarmed. The Maginot defensive line, England\u2019s island status, the new and welcomed art of appeasement (originally, lest we forget, a suitably liberal and humane idea), growing socialist movements, the League of Nations, and a new pacifism were all seen as substitutes for Neanderthal notions like deterrence and military preparedness. Perpetual peace was supposed to follow \u2014 and not another war with Germany a mere 20 years after the last one. Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, and the rest begged to differ.<\/p>\n After the Second World War, the United Kingdom and the United States once again disarmed at an astonishing rate. By June 1950, even tiny Communist North Korea had access to better tanks and jets than were available to nearby American occupation troops in Japan. Only the threat of a nuclear response kept Stalin\u2019s divisions from walking into postwar Western Europe \u2014 mostly disarmed despite efforts to forge a conventional NATO deterrent.<\/p>\n Louis Johnson, briefly Truman\u2019s secretary of defense, had sought to close down the Marine Corps altogether and dismantle as many army divisions as he could \u2014 all thought to be superfluous in the new postwar age of strategic air power and nuclear weapons following the defeat of the Axis powers. Admirals were up in arms over massive cancellations of shipbuilding and the mothballing of their fleets.<\/p>\n Then came the Communist-inspired effort to topple Greece and Turkey, the Communist takeover of China, the war in Korea, the brutal Soviet suppression of liberation movements in Eastern Europe, and the massive expansion of the Soviet Union\u2019s conventional and nuclear forces. Only the rearming of the United States in the early 1950s, along with the new policy of containment and foreign aid, stopped the Soviet advance and saved millions from Communist takeovers.<\/p>\n By the mid-1970s the United States was weary again. Vietnam had nearly wrecked the American military and had sent millions into the streets at home. Accommodation and d\u00e9tente \u2014 not the rollback of Communism \u2014 were the preferred way of dealing with an ascendant, but now supposedly more moderate, Soviet Union.<\/p>\n After the Nixon years and Watergate, the evangelical Jimmy Carter called for defense reductions and an end to our \u201cinordinate\u201d fear of Communism. He put confidence instead in the United Nations, good will among men, and a new emphasis on global human rights, rather than, yet again, reactionary deterrence.<\/p>\n But after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Communist intrusions into Central America, the rise of radical Islam, and the takeover of the American embassy in Tehran, Carter ended his presidency in disillusionment about the efficacy of the United Nations, and about the supposedly benign intentions of the Soviet Union and radical Islam.<\/p>\n Nonetheless, Ronald Reagan was considered a cretin for once again massively rearming and waging an ideological war against the \u201cevil empire\u201d created by the Soviet Union, as well as for engaging in provocative acts like bombing Libya and invading Grenada. Reagan spent eight years enlarging all branches of the military, creating new strategic weapons, and opposing Soviet adventurism almost anywhere it was identified. Soon after he left office the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War ended.<\/p>\n George Bush continued these policies during the four years of his administration, but then, as if on cue, Bill Clinton reversed course and announced a \u201cpeace dividend.\u201d He reduced the number of army and marine divisions and of air wings. The military shrunk radically in size. New weapons programs were put on hold. We settled into the 1990s prosperity of the dot-com boom. The talk was all about twentysomething college dropouts making millions in ground-floor stock options by brainstorming for brilliant new concerns like AskJeeves or America Online. Little Silicon Valleys were going to sprout up everywhere.<\/p>\n By 1999 Americans were focused on whether their president should be merely censured or impeached for engaging in sex acts with a White House intern in the Oval Office. Occasional radical Islamic attacks such as the World Trade Center bombing in 1993, the murder of U.S. servicemen in their Khobar Towers barracks in Saudi Arabia in 1996, the destruction of three of our East African embassies in 1998, and the assault on the U.S.S.\u00a0Cole<\/em>\u00a0in 2000 were all considered police matters that did not warrant a full-fledged military response. It was the global American hegemony and support for Zionist Israel, not existential hatred for Western freedom and liberality, that provoked these outbursts from an exasperated radical Islam.<\/p>\n Then came 9\/11, and the belated catch-up inevitably followed. A new Department of Homeland Security was created with bipartisan support. Both houses of Congress passed the Patriot Act. A majority of Democratic senators voted with the Republicans to authorize two wars, in Afghanistan and Iraq. President Bush\u00a0enlarged the defense budget. In the dark days after 9\/11, Americans praised the FBI, CIA, and armed forces for keeping us safe.<\/p>\n Indeed, for the next eight years there was no repetition of the September 11 massacres, despite terrible suicide bombings abroad. For all the tragedy of the occupations in Afghanistan and Iraq, both the Taliban and Saddam Hussein were removed, and ensuing constitutional democracies continued to survive. Tens of thousands of al-Qaeda terrorists flocked to Iraq and were killed there. Their leadership remains attrited and scattered in the wilderness of Waziristan. Dozens of terrorist plots in America were broken up while still in the planning stages. The message went out that if another American city were to be attacked, an unpredictable but angry United States would go after any nation that had supported, housed, or subsidized the terrorists, even if only tangentially.<\/p>\n So here we are in yet the latest round of perpetual peace, this time overseen by a postnational, messianic Barack Obama. Serial apologies, engagement with dictators, the trashing of his predecessor, and calls for a newly empowered United Nations are all part of a sophisticated soft power that has replaced the old Bush \u201csmoke \u2019em out,\u201d \u201cdead or alive\u201d reductionism.<\/p>\n We are more likely now to put CIA interrogators on trial than to arrest and berate new terrorists. Dick Cheney, not Osama bin Laden, has become the new national threat. George W. Bush has been reduced to Orwell\u2019s Emmanuel Goldstein, the \u201cHe did it\u201d collective menace at whom we are supposed to yell out in hatred each morning. We now live in an era of renewed appeasement, faith in the United Nations, no \u201cinordinate fear,\u201d and all the usual tired slogans.<\/p>\n Given the massive, nearly $2-trillion annual deficits, and the soon to be $9-trillion addition to the existing $11-trillion national debt, together with a new confidence in world governance, defense stagnation and cuts are not a matter of if, but only when.<\/p>\n So there is no need to mention what follows next in this tired old script. We may experience another attack like 9\/11, given that many terrorists must now believe that the United States either cannot or will not go after them in the manner of the last eight years.<\/p>\n Many jihadists must feel that the new government in Washington is more likely to contextualize their hatred than ensure it does not spread or materialize into war. Regional bad actors \u2014 take your pick, from Ahmadinejad to Ch\u00e1vez to Kim to Putin \u2014 may feel it is about time to make regional adjustments in the balance of power, given their impressions that the United States is almost sympathetic to their frustrations and believes that Bush ineptness and bad faith, not the intrinsic agendas of such antidemocratic, ambitious powers, caused prior tension.<\/p>\n And once we experience such \u201cadventurism,\u201d the reaction is just as scripted. We will want tougher CIA interrogators to ensure there is no more suicide mass murdering. Attorney General Eric Holder will go the way of Louis Johnson. Congress will hold hearings on who shut down Guantanamo and freed the terrorists. White papers will be issued detailing how the Obama administration curtailed proactive national-security measures. Committees will blast the creation of needless \u201cfirewalls\u201d between agencies. Senators will call for more aid to Colombia or Georgia or South Korea or Israel or (fill in the blank).<\/p>\n The cycle will play out as in the past, because, in this age of enlightenment, affluence, and leisure, we just cannot accept that human nature remains the same and thus predictable. It remains too depressing to concede that for a few evil opportunists good will is seen not as magnanimity to be appreciated, but as weakness to be tested. And who but a dunce would believe that continual military preparedness is far cheaper \u2014 and more humane \u2014 than the perpetual \u201cpeace dividend\u201d and lowering of our defenses?<\/p>\n \u00a92009 Victor Davis Hanson<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Are we about to repeat this tired cycle? by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online By 1930 Verdun had been transmogrified almost into a dirty word in French schools.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[652],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-Bj","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":8100,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-seductions-of-appeasement\/","url_meta":{"origin":2313,"position":0},"title":"The Seductions of Appeasement","author":"victorhanson","date":"January 5, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ PJ Media Before World War II appeasement was a good word, reflecting a supposedly wise policy of understanding an enemy\u2019s predicaments. Sober Western democracies would grant tolerable concessions to aggressive dictators in Germany, Italy, and Japan to satiate their appetites for more. With such magnanimity\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "The World"","block_context":{"text":"The World","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9068,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-return-of-appeasement-collaboration-and-isolationism\/","url_meta":{"origin":2313,"position":1},"title":"The Return of Appeasement, Collaboration and Isolationism","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 22, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ Tribune Media Services World War II broke out when Nazi Germany invaded Poland on September 1, 1939. A once preventable war had become inevitable \u2014 and would soon become global \u2014 due to three fatal decisions. Most infamously, the Western European democracies had appeased Hitler during\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":868,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/appeasement-bode-war-not-peace\/","url_meta":{"origin":2313,"position":2},"title":"Appeasement Bode War Not Peace","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 3, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Terry Scambray New Oxford Review A review of\u00a0The Wages of Appeasement: Ancient Athens, Munich, and Obama's America\u00a0by Bruce S. Thornton. (Encounter Books, 2011 pp. 283) Winston Churchill famously said, \"An appeaser is one who feeds the crocodile hoping it will eat him last.\" In\u00a0The Wages of Appeasement: Ancient Athens,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Reviews"","block_context":{"text":"Reviews","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/opinion\/reviews\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8562,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/appeasing-iran-ignores-the-lessons-of-history\/","url_meta":{"origin":2313,"position":3},"title":"Appeasing Iran Ignores the Lessons of History","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 23, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online The now-concluded Iran nuclear negotiations predictably reflect ancient truths of appeasement. While members of the Obama administration are high-fiving each other over a deal with the Iranian theocracy, they should remember unchanging laws that will surely haunt the United\u00a0States\u00a0later on. First, appeasement\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Iran"","block_context":{"text":"Iran","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/iran\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Photo via conservativebyte.com","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/iran-munich-500x375.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":4128,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/appeasement-101\/","url_meta":{"origin":2313,"position":4},"title":"Appeasement 101","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 22, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services It is easy to damn the 1930s appeasers of Hitler \u2014 such as Stanley Baldwin and Neville Chamberlain in England and Edouard Daladier in France \u2014 given what the Nazis ultimately did when unleashed. But history demands not merely recognizing the truth post\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "February 2006"","block_context":{"text":"February 2006","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2006\/february-2006\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9457,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/a-hard-rain-is-going-to-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":2313,"position":5},"title":"A Hard Rain Is Going to Fall","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 28, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"World events seem relatively calm, but repeated appeasement has built up pressure across the globe, and someone has to be there when crisis erupts. By Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review This summer, President Obama was often golfing. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were promising to let the world be.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Campaign 2016"","block_context":{"text":"Campaign 2016","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/campaign-2016\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2313"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2313"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2313\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2314,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2313\/revisions\/2314"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}