{"id":12321,"date":"2020-04-22T10:00:58","date_gmt":"2020-04-22T17:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=12321"},"modified":"2020-04-20T16:11:15","modified_gmt":"2020-04-20T23:11:15","slug":"a-little-more-light-in-a-vast-sea-of-viral-darkness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/a-little-more-light-in-a-vast-sea-of-viral-darkness\/","title":{"rendered":"A Little More Light in a Vast Sea of Viral Darkness?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Almost every day, more studies, strange data<\/a>, anecdotal reporting, and theories emerge about the virus, many of which could change existing conventional wisdom. In discussions about the nature of any existing seroprevalence in California, and about how even apparently small<\/em> percentages of those already infected in the population could radically alter rates of epidemic and mortality modeling, this early abstract of a recent study<\/a> could be of interest. It was co-reported by a rather large team of 16 distinguished researchers conducting an early assessment of their recent antibody testing in Santa Clara County.66<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

They and their publisher cite customary caution due to the preliminary nature of the \u201cunrefereed preprint\u201d of their findings. e.g., \u201cThis article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review.\u201d (What does this mean?) \u201cIt reports\u00a0new medical research<\/a>\u00a0that has yet to be evaluated and so should\u00a0not\u00a0<\/em>be used to guide clinical practice.\u201d But the concluding paragraph of the abstract could become of interest in its implications for both state and federal policy, especially when the data of such research are finished being peer reviewed and, if substantiated, and the findings possibly replicated in future such studies:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold m<\/em>ore than the number of confirmed cases. <\/em>Conclusions: The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. <\/em>Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections. (Emphasis added.)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

If one were to use these parameters of cases to recalibrate with the known deaths in Santa Clara County from the SARS-CoV-2 virus (increased to 69 as of yesterday), or if their percentages represented the epidemic in the state at large, then the results in a variety of ways could <\/em>shed some light on, and context about, the ongoing mystery of California\u2019s supposed number of cases and apparent fatalities to the virus (28,000 cases and 973 deaths in a state of 40 million), while suggesting that perhaps many more coastal Californians, or Californians in general, or perhaps even Americans, have previously been infected by the virus than we had heretofore imagined (with many either unaware or not overly concerned by that fact).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Almost every day, more studies, strange data, anecdotal reporting, and theories emerge about the virus, many of which could change existing conventional wisdom. In discussions about the nature of any existing seroprevalence in California, and about how even apparently small percentages of those already infected in the population could radically alter rates […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-3cJ","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12313,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/yes-california-remains-mysterious-despite-the-weaponization-of-the-debate\/","url_meta":{"origin":12321,"position":0},"title":"Yes, California Remains Mysterious \u2014 Despite the Weaponization of the Debate","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 17, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review California\u00a0is touchy, and yet still remains confused, about incomplete data showing that the 40-million-person state, as of Sunday, April 12, reportedly had 23,777 cases of residents who have tested posted for the COVID-19 illness. The number of infected by the 12th includes 674 deaths,\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8373,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/why-californias-drought-was-completely-preventable\/","url_meta":{"origin":12321,"position":1},"title":"Why California\u2019s Drought Was Completely Preventable","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 30, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\u00a0\/\/ National Review Online The present four-year California drought is not novel \u2014 even if President Barack Obama and California governor Jerry Brown have blamed it on man-made climate change. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, California droughts are both age-old and common. Predictable California\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "California"","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/california\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Almaden Reservoir in San Jose, Calif. 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Democrat candidates successfully stoked fears that the Republicans would\u00a0end\u00a0coverage of pre-existing conditions. Despite repeated\u00a0assurances\u00a0from\u00a0President Trump\u00a0that pre-existing conditions were safe, almost\u00a060\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Donald Trump"","block_context":{"text":"Donald Trump","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/donald-trump\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3059,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/alligators-moats-and-other-such-nonsense\/","url_meta":{"origin":12321,"position":4},"title":"Alligators, Moats and Other Such Nonsense","author":"victorhanson","date":"May 23, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services President Obama gave what was billed as an important speech on immigration last week near the border in El Paso, Texas. Unfortunately, it was one of the most demagogic moments in recent presidential history. Nearly everything Obama said was either factually incorrect or\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Immigration"","block_context":{"text":"Immigration","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/immigration\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7090,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-anti-empirical-left\/","url_meta":{"origin":12321,"position":5},"title":"The Anti-Empirical Left","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 6, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Science is ignored when it doesn't support politically correct policy. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/\u00a0National Review Online President Obama entered office promising to restore the sanctity of science. Instead, a fresh war against science, statistics, and reason is being waged on behalf of politically\u00a0correct politics. After the Sandy Hook tragedy,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Global Warming"","block_context":{"text":"Global Warming","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/global-warming-2\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/599px-Aristotelesarp-300x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12321"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12321"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12321\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12323,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12321\/revisions\/12323"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}