{"id":12320,"date":"2020-04-23T10:00:08","date_gmt":"2020-04-23T17:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=12320"},"modified":"2020-04-20T16:12:01","modified_gmt":"2020-04-20T23:12:01","slug":"an-informed-public-will-always-decide-on-the-virus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/an-informed-public-will-always-decide-on-the-virus\/","title":{"rendered":"An Informed Public Will Always Decide on the Virus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A number of NRO writers have offered today some valuable cautionary data about antibody testing and herd immunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Certainly, one cannot yet anticipate what ongoing and planned antibody testing in particular areas might reveal. Perhaps based on anecdotal new reports and a few samplings from abroad, we might expect anything: that from 0-3 percent of the population has been previously infected, to even 15 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I don\u2019t think anyone believes that the results will reveal absolute herd immunity, which can be defined by varying high percentages, according to the infectiousness and viability of particular viruses, is now on the immediate horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At least from their op-eds, interviews, and essays, many researchers who doubt the methodologies of pessimistic modeling believe that antibody testing could both correct flawed assumptions and offer some optimism \u2014 quite apart from the unlikely notion that a herd immunity of, say, 60-70 percent already exists, suggesting that the virus is just about kaput, at least for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A modern bad flu peters out often, due to the combination of 30-60 million getting infected, a few million on their own social distancing, another 150-170 million being vaccinated and thus, depending on the quality of the vaccination, perhaps resulting in some of them becoming immune or better equipped to endure the infection, some with existing immunity from dozens of past flu exposures, and with some help from warming weather and more people outdoors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/corner\/coronavirus-testing-accurate-data-on-immunity-vital\/\">Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review A number of NRO writers have offered today some valuable cautionary data about antibody testing and herd immunity. Certainly, one cannot yet anticipate what ongoing and planned antibody testing in particular areas might reveal. Perhaps based on anecdotal new reports and a few samplings from abroad, we might expect [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-3cI","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12305,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-power-of-media-ignorance\/","url_meta":{"origin":12320,"position":0},"title":"The Power of Media Ignorance","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 15, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Almost two weeks ago I offered at NRO a few\u00a0synopses\u00a0of various theories about why California \u2014 which, for a variety of reasons, had seemed so ripe for a New York\u2013style epidemic \u2014 had nonetheless strangely been exempt at least for a while from the\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12940,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/hitting-woke-herd-immunity\/","url_meta":{"origin":12320,"position":1},"title":"Hitting Woke Herd Immunity","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 8, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ American Greatness Two recent polls suggest wokism is beginning to recede on a variety of fronts,\u00a0from less trust in Black Lives Matter\u00a0and more confidence in the police, to suspicion that the Capitol\u00a0\u201cinsurrection\u201d account\u00a0is being used to unfairly suppress political expression while Antifa, increasingly, is seen\u00a0as a\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12952,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/hitting-woke-herd-immunity-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":12320,"position":2},"title":"Hitting Woke Herd Immunity?","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 12, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ American Greatness Two recent polls suggest wokism is beginning to recede on a variety of fronts,\u00a0from less trust in Black Lives Matter\u00a0and more confidence in the police, to suspicion that the Capitol\u00a0\u201cinsurrection\u201d account\u00a0is being used to unfairly suppress political expression while Antifa, increasingly, is seen\u00a0as a\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12312,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/our-new-post-virus-lexicon\/","url_meta":{"origin":12320,"position":3},"title":"Our New Post-Virus Lexicon","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 18, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Antibody\u00a0badges = surely a German import Antibody tests = It seems that nobody tests. AOC = See, emissions went down during shelter in place. Best and Brightest = being wrong on modeling, human infectiousness, test-kit availability, travel bans, masks, and anti-malarial drugs, without ever\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12310,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/we-are-approaching-covid-19-gut-check-time\/","url_meta":{"origin":12320,"position":4},"title":"We Are Approaching COVID-19 Gut-Check Time","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 17, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review We\u00a0are a few days away from a rendezvous with some tough conclusions about COVID-19. A number of concurrent developments are coming to a head. Most will bring light where so far there was only heat. Greater information about the virus might cause as much\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13081,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/optimism-inc\/","url_meta":{"origin":12320,"position":5},"title":"Optimism Inc","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 2, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ Private Papers THE MORE PESSIMISTIC the CDC, Dr. Fauci, and the Biden Administration sound on the pandemic, the more cautiously optimistic I become, albeit as a non-medical observer of the pandemic. I also do not mean that as a contrarian, but, after all, we are approaching\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/virus.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/virus.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/virus.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12320"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12320"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12320\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12324,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12320\/revisions\/12324"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}