{"id":12279,"date":"2020-04-02T10:00:52","date_gmt":"2020-04-02T17:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=12279"},"modified":"2020-04-01T21:39:54","modified_gmt":"2020-04-02T04:39:54","slug":"coronavirus-the-california-herd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/coronavirus-the-california-herd\/","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus: The California Herd"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The&nbsp;bluest state\u2019s public officials have been warning for weeks that California will be overwhelmed, given federal-government unpreparedness and the purported inefficacy of the local, state, and federal governments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>California governor Gavin Newsom has assured his state that over half of the population \u2014 or, in his words, 56 percent \u2014 will soon be infected. That is, more than 25 million coronavirus cases are on the horizon, which, at the virus\u2019s current fatality rate of 1\u20132 percent (the ratio of deaths to known positive cases), would mean that the state should anticipate 250,000\u2013500,000 dead Californians in the near future. Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti predicted that this week Los Angeles would be short of all sorts of medical supplies as the epidemic killed many hundreds, as is the case in New York City.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s been well over two months since the first certified coronavirus case in the United States, so one might expect to see early symptoms of the apocalypse recently forecast by Governor Newsom. Yet a number of California\u2019s top doctors, epidemiologists, statisticians, and biophysicists \u2014 including Stanford\u2019s John Ioannides, Michael Levitt, Eran Bendavid, and Jay Bhattacharya \u2014 have expressed some skepticism about the bleak models predicting that we are on the verge of a statewide or even national lethal pandemic of biblical proportions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The skeptics may be right. As of this moment, California\u2019s cumulative fatalities attributed to coronavirus are somewhere over 140 deaths, in a state of 40 million. That toll is a relatively confirmable numerator (though coronavirus is not always the sole cause of death), as opposed to the widely unreliable denominator of caseloads (currently about 6,300 in the state) that are judged to be only a fraction of the population that has been tested. The Iceland study, for example, suggests that half of those who are infected show no symptoms. Currently, even with fluctuating statistics, California is suffering roughly about one death to the virus for every 250,000\u2013300,000 of its residents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-pandemic-california-herd-immunity\/\">Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review The&nbsp;bluest state\u2019s public officials have been warning for weeks that California will be overwhelmed, given federal-government unpreparedness and the purported inefficacy of the local, state, and federal governments. California governor Gavin Newsom has assured his state that over half of the population \u2014 or, in his words, 56 percent [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-3c3","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":167,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/its-hard-to-screw-up-california-but-we-try-our-best\/","url_meta":{"origin":12279,"position":0},"title":"It&#8217;s Hard to Screw Up California&#8211;But We Try Our Best","author":"victorhanson","date":"December 16, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson NRO's\u00a0The Corner There is a sort of upbeat\u00a0New York Timesarticle\u00a0arguing that California \u2014 in part, thanks to passing the highest sales and income taxes in the nation \u2014 might be coming back, a sort of recovery that can guide the rest of the US to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;California&quot;","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/california\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12313,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/yes-california-remains-mysterious-despite-the-weaponization-of-the-debate\/","url_meta":{"origin":12279,"position":1},"title":"Yes, California Remains Mysterious \u2014 Despite the Weaponization of the Debate","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 17, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review California\u00a0is touchy, and yet still remains confused, about incomplete data showing that the 40-million-person state, as of Sunday, April 12, reportedly had 23,777 cases of residents who have tested posted for the COVID-19 illness. The number of infected by the 12th includes 674 deaths,\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3316,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/failure-is-very-much-and-option\/","url_meta":{"origin":12279,"position":2},"title":"Failure Is Very Much and Option","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 24, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson NRO's\u00a0The Corner Lost in the furor over the\u00a0budget\u00a0is any discussion of the fact that, after a certain baseline point, redistributive payouts might be making things worse for those on the receiving end. Black middle-class flight from northern big cities, failing public schools like nearby Fresno City\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Budget&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Budget","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/politics\/budget\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9281,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-nihilism-of-sanctuary-cities\/","url_meta":{"origin":12279,"position":3},"title":"The Nihilism of Sanctuary Cities","author":"victorhanson","date":"May 2, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"By Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ Works and Days by PJ Media There are an estimated 300 or so jurisdictions -- entire states, counties, cities, and municipalities -- that since the early 1980s have enacted \u201csanctuary city\u201d laws, forbidding full enforcement of federal immigration law within their jurisdictions. Most of these\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Immigration&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Immigration","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/immigration\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"juan-francisco-lopez-sanchez-kate-steinle-7-19-15-1","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/pajamasmed.hs.llnwd.net\/e1\/victordavishanson\/user-content\/2\/files\/2015\/07\/juan-francisco-lopez-sanchez-kate-steinle-7-19-15-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":8742,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/can-california-be-saved\/","url_meta":{"origin":12279,"position":4},"title":"Can California Be Saved?","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 22, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\u00a0\/\/ National Review Online Crime is back up in California. Los Angeles reported a 20.6 percent increase in violent crimes over the first half of 2015 and nearly an 11 percent increase in property crimes. Last year, cash-strapped California taxpayers voted for Proposition 47, which so far\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;California&quot;","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/california\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"www.femtalks.com","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/bay-area-traffic-move-over-law.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":9376,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/will-california-ever-thrive-again\/","url_meta":{"origin":12279,"position":5},"title":"Will California Ever Thrive Again?","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 7, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"The state is sinking, and its wealthy class is full of hypocrites. By Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online There was more of the same-old, same-old California news recently. Some 62 percent of state roads have been rated poor or mediocre. There were more predications of huge cost overruns\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;California&quot;","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/california\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12279"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12279"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12279\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12284,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12279\/revisions\/12284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}