{"id":12243,"date":"2020-03-11T10:00:44","date_gmt":"2020-03-11T17:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=12243"},"modified":"2020-03-10T13:46:42","modified_gmt":"2020-03-10T20:46:42","slug":"iran-doesnt-understand-maximum-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/iran-doesnt-understand-maximum-pressure\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran Doesn\u2019t Understand \u2018Maximum Pressure\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Iran&nbsp;has misjudged not only the toxic effects of the Trump administration\u2019s \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d sanctions on the regime but also the entire psychology of U.S. policy toward Iran. The result is that Iranian unemployment is soaring, its gross domestic product is tanking, inflation is raging, oil prices are crashing, and its friends are fewer than ever \u2014 and for the first time in 40 years, the regime believes that it must do something quite radical before it implodes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2020 is not 1979, not 1983, not 1986, not 2004\u20132007, and not 2011 \u2014 all years when Iran variously pressured the U.S. by taking hostages, killing American personnel in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, threatening oil disruptions, and planning to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington, D.C. Now things are redefined for a variety of reasons, most of them apparently still underappreciated by the theocratic Iranian elite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1) As the world\u2019s largest oil and natural-gas producer, the U.S. is not vulnerable to cutoffs of oil from the Middle East. It, of course, cares about global free passage through the Straits of Hormuz, but not as much as do major importers such as Europe and exporters such as China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Americans today certainly would not go to war if oil-dependent nations did not themselves first confront Iran over any threatened denial of access through the straits. That said, most Americans would not wish their sons and daughters to die to keep Chinese trade \u2014 or even Europe\u2019s oil imports \u2014 safe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As far as the old Middle East \u201ctensions\u201d spiking oil prices and thereby harming consumers in the U.S. are concerned, such theoretical crises now offer a wash to America: Higher gas prices would also mean that the value of ascending U.S. daily oil production would increase by hundreds of millions of dollars every week, because consumers mostly pay fellow Americans for increased gas costs at the pump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/2020\/03\/iran-theocracy-usual-tactics-arent-working-against-arab-enemies-and-west\/\">Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Iran&nbsp;has misjudged not only the toxic effects of the Trump administration\u2019s \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d sanctions on the regime but also the entire psychology of U.S. policy toward Iran. The result is that Iranian unemployment is soaring, its gross domestic product is tanking, inflation is raging, oil prices are crashing, and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-3bt","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12135,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/irans-options-in-a-showdown-with-america-are-all-bad\/","url_meta":{"origin":12243,"position":0},"title":"Iran\u2019s Options in a Showdown with America Are All Bad","author":"victorhanson","date":"January 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review After losing its top strategist, military commander, and arch-terrorist, Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian theocracy is weighing responses. One, Iran can quiet down and cease military provocations. After attacking tankers off its coast, destroying an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, shooting down a U.S. drone,\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12012,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/keep-it-steady-and-cool-with-iran-america\/","url_meta":{"origin":12243,"position":1},"title":"Keep It Steady and Cool with Iran, America","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 2, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Expect more desperate Iranian efforts to prompt a U.S. military response in the Persian Gulf. Trump\u2019s sanctions have cut off 90 percent of Iran\u2019s oil revenues. Soon Tehran\u2019s shattered economy will be followed by more pent-up domestic unrest of the sort that Barack Obama\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8559,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/more-sanctions-wouldnt-have-stopped-iran\/","url_meta":{"origin":12243,"position":2},"title":"More Sanctions Wouldn&#8217;t Have Stopped Iran","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 22, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"But one measure would have. by Bruce S. Thornton \/\/ FrontPage Magazine Critics of President Obama\u2019s recent deal with Iran have rejected the president\u2019s assertion that the only alternative to his deal is war. They think that more aggressive sanctions could have changed Iran\u2019s behavior, given the economic costs the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Iran&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Iran","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/iran\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"iran-nuclear","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/iran-nuclear-500x281.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3546,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/dont-bomb-bomb-iran\/","url_meta":{"origin":12243,"position":3},"title":"Don&#8217;t Bomb, Bomb Iran","author":"victorhanson","date":"August 31, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"For now, we should avoid smoking Tehran. by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online There\u2019s been ever more talk on Iran. President Bush \u2014 worried about both Americans being killed by Iranian mines in Iraq, and Tehran\u2019s progress toward uranium enrichment \u2014 is ratcheting up the rhetoric. But so\u00a0mirabile dictu\u00a0is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;August 2007&quot;","block_context":{"text":"August 2007","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2007\/august-2007\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4165,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/tweaking-the-united-states\/","url_meta":{"origin":12243,"position":4},"title":"Tweaking the United States","author":"victorhanson","date":"January 9, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services As the Iranian nuclear threat continues to grow, neither the United States nor Israel are eager to be damned by the global community for sending in bombers to take out Tehran's dispersed and hard-to-find subterranean nuclear factories. Meanwhile, European diplomats will fail in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;January 2006&quot;","block_context":{"text":"January 2006","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2006\/january-2006\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1090,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/iran-on-the-brink\/","url_meta":{"origin":12243,"position":5},"title":"Iran on the Brink","author":"victorhanson","date":"January 11, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Bruce S. Thornton Defining Ideas Just in the last few months, events have hastened to a crisis in Iran\u2019s long confrontation with the West. The ongoing civil war in Syria looks more and more likely to end with the ouster of strongman Bashar al-Assad, one of Tehran\u2019s most stalwart\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Iran&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Iran","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/the-middle-east\/iran\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12243"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12243"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12243\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12244,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12243\/revisions\/12244"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12243"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12243"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12243"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}