{"id":12218,"date":"2020-02-27T10:00:55","date_gmt":"2020-02-27T18:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=12218"},"modified":"2020-02-27T20:19:42","modified_gmt":"2020-02-28T04:19:42","slug":"trumps-chances-for-reelection-are-looking-better-and-better","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/trumps-chances-for-reelection-are-looking-better-and-better\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Chances for Reelection Are Looking Better and Better"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Donald Trump&nbsp;has at least five strong historical arguments for his reelection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One, he is an incumbent. Incumbent presidents have won 14 of 19 reelection bids since 1900.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The few who lost did not enjoy positive approval ratings. In a Gallup poll from earlier this month, Trump enjoyed his highest approval rating since his inauguration, squeezing out a 49 percent favorable rating vs. 50 percent unfavorable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two, the public perception of the economy usually determines any presidential election \u2014 as incumbents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H. W. Bush, and Herbert Hoover learned the hard way. Currently, the U.S. is enjoying low inflation, low interest rates, positive economic growth, near-record low unemployment, rising workers\u2019 wages, and record gas and oil production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Three, unpopular optional wars derail incumbent presidencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The quagmire in Vietnam convinced Lyndon Johnson not to run for reelection in 1968. Jimmy Carter was tarnished by the seemingly never-ending Iranian hostage crisis of 1979\u20131981. The Iraq War drove down George W. Bush\u2019s second-term approval ratings and helped derail his would-be Republican successor, John McCain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/2020\/02\/2020-president-trump-reelection-chances-looking-better-and-better\/\">Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Donald Trump&nbsp;has at least five strong historical arguments for his reelection. One, he is an incumbent. Incumbent presidents have won 14 of 19 reelection bids since 1900. The few who lost did not enjoy positive approval ratings. In a Gallup poll from earlier this month, Trump enjoyed his highest [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-3b4","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":10718,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/whatever-doesnt-kill-trump-only-makes-him-stronger\/","url_meta":{"origin":12218,"position":0},"title":"Whatever doesn&#8217;t kill Trump only makes him stronger","author":"victorhanson","date":"November 7, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Los Angeles Times Victor Davis Hanson\u00a0 Former FBI Director James B. Comey attends a hearing before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence hearing in Washington on June 8. (Brendan Smialowsk \/ AFP\/Getty Images) Donald Trump presides as he campaigned. He is proving a Nietzschean figure in the sense that \u201cwhat\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Comey&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Comey","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/comey\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11461,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/could-trump-win-20-percent-of-the-african-american-vote-in-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":12218,"position":1},"title":"Could Trump Win 20 Percent of the African-American Vote in 2020?","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 19, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review The provocative Donald Trump certainly seems to be disliked by a majority of African-American professional athletes, cable-news hosts, academics, and the Congressional Black Caucus. Yet there are subtle but increasing indications that his approval among other African Americans may be reaching historic highs for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Donald Trump&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Donald Trump","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/donald-trump\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12037,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/anatomy-of-2020-weighing-issues-candidates-and-the-state-of-our-union\/","url_meta":{"origin":12218,"position":2},"title":"Anatomy of 2020: Weighing Issues, Candidates, and the State of Our Union","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 30, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review In the 20th century, no Congress brought impeachment proceedings against a first-term president facing a reelection. Both the Nixon and Clinton efforts were aimed at reelected presidents, perhaps on the theory that there was supposedly no other means of bringing them to account once\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10485,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-anti-trump-bourbons-learning-and-forgetting-nothing-in-time-for-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":12218,"position":3},"title":"The Anti-Trump Bourbons: Learning and Forgetting Nothing in Time for 2020","author":"victorhanson","date":"August 16, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"By Victor Davis Hanson| American Greatness Just seven months into Donald Trump\u2019s administration we are already bombarded with political angling and speculations about the 2020 presidential race. No one knows in the next three years what can happen to a volatile Trump presidency or his psychotic enemies, but for now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Conservatives&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Conservatives","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/conservatives\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/amgreatness.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/louisbourboncropped.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":12728,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/marching-into-georgia-with-the-senate-in-sight\/","url_meta":{"origin":12218,"position":4},"title":"Marching into Georgia, with the Senate in Sight","author":"victorhanson","date":"November 20, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review The\u00a0distortions in the campaign and voting\u00a0that we\u00a0saw on November 3 will likely be child\u2019s play compared with what will march through Georgia next January. If recounts don\u2019t change the November 3, 2020, result, the January 5, 2021, Georgia senatorial election becomes a black-swan event\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11939,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/will-2020-be-a-repeat-of-2004-for-democrats\/","url_meta":{"origin":12218,"position":5},"title":"Will 2020 Be a Repeat of 2004 for Democrats?","author":"victorhanson","date":"August 10, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Democrats by 2004 had become obsessed with defeating incumbent President George W. Bush. Four years earlier, in the 2000 election, Bush had won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote. Democrats were still furious that Bush supposedly had been \u201cselected\u201d by the Supreme\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12218"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12218"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12218\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12219,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12218\/revisions\/12219"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12218"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12218"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12218"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}