{"id":11078,"date":"2018-03-23T11:02:31","date_gmt":"2018-03-23T18:02:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=11078"},"modified":"2018-03-23T11:03:47","modified_gmt":"2018-03-23T18:03:47","slug":"our-long-history-of-misjudging-north-korea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/our-long-history-of-misjudging-north-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"Our Long History of Misjudging North Korea"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"article-header__subtitle\">There\u2019s a lot to learn from seventy years of failure to stop the Kim regimes\u2019 aggression.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"drop\">N<\/span>orth Korea has befuddled the United States and its Asian allies ever since North Korean leader Kim Il-sung launched the invasion of South Korea in June 1950.<\/p>\n<p>Prior to the attack, the United States had sent inadvertent signals that it likely would not protect South Korea in the event of an unexpected invasion from the north. Not surprisingly, a war soon followed.<\/p>\n<p>General Douglas MacArthur, after leading a brilliant landing at Inchon in September 1950, chased the communists back north of the 38th parallel. In hot pursuit, MacArthur gambled that the Chinese would not invade, as he sought to conquer all of North Korea and unite the peninsula.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>As MacArthur barreled northward to the Chinese border during the fall of 1950, the landscaped widened. American supply lines lengthened. MacArthur\u2019s forces thinned. The weather worsened. The days shortened.<\/p>\n<p>Conventional wisdom had been that the Chinese would not invade, given America\u2019s near nuclear monopoly and likely air superiority. But in November 1950, what eventually would become nearly a million-man Chinese army did just that, pouring southward into the Korean peninsula.<\/p>\n<p>The Chinese and North Koreans pushed the American and United Nations forces past the Demilitarized Zone at the 38th parallel. In January 1951, the communists retook Seoul after forcing the longest American military retreat in U.S. history.<\/p>\n<p>With the arrival of military genius General Matthew Ridgway, the U.S. regrouped. In early 1951, Western troops retook Seoul and drove communist forces back across the 38th parallel. But despite continued success, Western forces chose not to reinvade the north and reunite the country.<\/p>\n<p>What followed the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War was a tense Cold War standoff between two antithetical Korean countries for the next 65 years. North Korean assassinations, kidnappings, and continual provocations continued throughout the \u201cpeace.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In 1994, the Bill Clinton administration gave massive aid to North Korea under the \u201cAgreed Framework\u201d deal, including heavy fuel oil. In exchange, North Korea promised to cease its ongoing nuclear proliferation.<\/p>\n<p>Predictably, North Korean leadership lied. It eagerly took the aid only to further fast-track its nuclear weapons program.<\/p>\n<p>The George W. Bush administration in 2003 arranged for \u201csix-party talks\u201d \u2014 China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the U.S. \u2014 to discourage North Korean nuclear proliferation. America and its allies once more provided aid and promised not to attack the Kim Jong-il regime. In exchange, Pyongyang agreed in writing to dismantle \u201call nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Once more, North Korea outsmarted Western naifs. It interpreted American concessions as weakness to be exploited rather than magnanimity to be reciprocated.<\/p>\n<p>In 2006, North Korea detonated a nuclear device.<\/p>\n<p>The Barack Obama administration learned nothing from the failures of the Clinton and Bush administrations. It followed the same old tired script of lecturing North Korea about its violations of international law. Then, predictably, Obama gave more aid to North Korea while pleading that it change its behavior and denuclearize. Obama\u2019s policy was called \u201cstrategic patience\u201d \u2014 a hope that if North Korea would not compromise, it at least would eventually collapse due to its corruption and malfeasance.<\/p>\n<p>Obama misjudged North Korea as every other president had since the end of the Korean War. North Korea only further expanded its nuclear arsenal. Pyongyang always figured it could feign one of its \u201ccrazy\u201d moods and then play on Western empathy for more money, all while China smiled and claimed ignorance.<\/p>\n<p>Soon after Donald Trump was elected, North Korea announced that it was now capable of using its nuclear weaponry to take out cities on America\u2019s West Coast. But this time around, the U.S. did not offer bribes. Instead, it issued its own threats to North Korea. Trump himself assumed the unhinged role the Kims usually played, denigrating Kim Jong-un as \u201cLittle Rocket Man\u201d and \u201cshort and fat.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But the Trump administration also lined up an international boycott of North Korea that is slowly squeezing the regime. Now, Kim Jong-un suddenly wants to talk. A collapsing North Korea once again claims it will denuclearize, but first it wants a historic photo-op with a U.S. president.<\/p>\n<p>What have we learned about North Korea in the past 65 years? North Korea\u2019s cunning usually trumps America\u2019s ideals of fair play and self-confidence. Empty threats do not work. Appeasement with infusions of food, cash, and fuel makes things worse.<\/p>\n<p>China finds its North Korea client useful. Russia is usually against anything we are for. South Korea appeases North Korea when it senses U.S. weakness. It stands firm only when America does.<\/p>\n<p>What should Trump do after seven decades of North Korean aggression?<\/p>\n<p>Ratchet up the embargo of North Korea. Do not give it any aid \u2014 no matter the pleas and threats. Put more pressure on China. Do not barter with Pyongyang until it is proven that it has no more nukes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review There\u2019s a lot to learn from seventy years of failure to stop the Kim regimes\u2019 aggression. North Korea has befuddled the United States and its Asian allies ever since North Korean leader Kim Il-sung launched the invasion of South Korea in June 1950. Prior to the attack, the United [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1176,1163,1],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-2SG","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":5813,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/north-korean-mythologies\/","url_meta":{"origin":11078,"position":0},"title":"North Korean Mythologies","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 20, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson PJ Media Much of what is written about the North Korean crisis seems to me little more than fantasy. Let us examine the mythologies. 1) China is a responsible partner in checking North Korea and, of course, does not want war. It may well be true\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;North Korea&quot;","block_context":{"text":"North Korea","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/north-korea\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5122,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/five-star-peacock\/","url_meta":{"origin":11078,"position":1},"title":"Five-Star Peacock","author":"victorhanson","date":"May 22, 2000","format":false,"excerpt":"A Review of\u00a0MacArthur's War by Victor Davis Hanson National Review MacArthur's War: Korea and the Undoing of an American Hero, by Stanley Weintraub (Free Press, 375 pp., $27.50) 'I WOULDN'T trade one Marshall for 50 MacArthurs,\" Dwight Eisen hower purportedly remarked. \"My God!\" he continued. \"That would be a lousy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Reviews&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Reviews","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/opinion\/reviews\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10870,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/will-nuclear-north-korea-survive-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":11078,"position":2},"title":"Will Nuclear North Korea Survive 2018?","author":"victorhanson","date":"January 8, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 Given several rapidly developing geopolitical factors, North Korea may look much different by the end of the new year. \u00a0 For good or evil, we may see radical changes in North Korea in 2018. \u00a0 The beefed-up United Nations sanctions by midyear could\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Trump&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Trump","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/trump\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3673,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/memory-and-conflict-in-iraq\/","url_meta":{"origin":11078,"position":3},"title":"Memory and Conflict in Iraq","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 5, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services Given all of this country's past wars involving intelligence failures, tactical and strategic blunders, congressional fights and popular anger at the president, Iraq and the rising furor over it are hardly unusual. Imagine if the House of Representatives had debated a resolution to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;March 2007&quot;","block_context":{"text":"March 2007","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2007\/march-2007\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":169,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wars-paradoxes-from-pearl-harbor-to-the-russian-front-to-the-38th-parallel\/","url_meta":{"origin":11078,"position":4},"title":"War&#8217;s Paradoxes: From Pearl Harbor to the Russian Front to the 38th Parallel","author":"victorhanson","date":"December 14, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson PJ Media From time to time, I take a break from opinion writing here at\u00a0Works and Days\u00a0[1] and turn to history \u2014 on this occasion, I am prompted by the 71st anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Here are a few of the most\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Retrospective&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Retrospective","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/opinion\/retrospective\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10596,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/what-if-south-korea-acted-like-north-korea\/","url_meta":{"origin":11078,"position":5},"title":"What If South Korea Acted Like North Korea?","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 18, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"By Victor Davis Hanson National Review If it threatened to destroy its neighbor \u2014 China \u2014 the neighbor would act. Think of the Korean Peninsula turned upside down. Imagine if there were a South Korean dictatorship that had been in power, as a client of the United States since 1953.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/china\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11078"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11078"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11078\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11082,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11078\/revisions\/11082"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}