{"id":10690,"date":"2017-10-26T10:50:37","date_gmt":"2017-10-26T17:50:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=10690"},"modified":"2017-10-26T10:50:37","modified_gmt":"2017-10-26T17:50:37","slug":"north-korea-knowns-and-unknowns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/north-korea-knowns-and-unknowns\/","title":{"rendered":"North Korea Knowns and Unknowns"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

We are in the middle, not at the end, of a long North Korean crisis.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

No one really knows all that much about North Korea\u2019s nuclear or conventional military capability or its strategic agenda. Are its nuclear missiles reliably lethal, are they as long-ranged and accurate as hyped, and are they under secure command and control?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Conventional wisdom states that Seoul would be destroyed in minutes by at least 10,000 North Korean artillery and rocket batteries that are now aimed from right across the Demilitarized Zone. Such guns are said to be capable of firing 500,000 rounds within a few minutes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

As a result, South Korea and its allies are supposed to be veritable hostages, with no strategic choices in countering North Korea\u2019s newly enhanced nuclear threat.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

But is Seoul really being held hostage, and would it be doomed if war broke out?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In fact, no one can be sure of the actual size, nature, and readiness of the North Korea arsenal \u2014 or the degree to which it is coordinated and effectively aimed. Much less does anyone know how well North Korea\u2019s guns have been pre-targeted by American and South Korean planes, counter-batteries, and missiles.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Seoul itself is a huge city of 10 million urban residents. Indeed, greater Seoul and its population of some 24 million are sprawled out over a vast area of more than 250 square miles. The idea that the North Korean military could destroy the world\u2019s third-most-populated metropolitan area in minutes with conventional weapons is unproven.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Take the example of Israel and its existential enemies. The Iranians now claim that their Hezbollah proxies in Lebanon have targeted 80,000 rockets at Tel Aviv. Israel\u2019s enemies brag that together they could bombard the tiny country with 200,000 rockets and missiles in a matter of minutes should Israel ever again go to war.
\n<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In the 2006 Lebanon war, Hezbollah and terrorist forces on the West Bank boasted that they had launched more than 8,000 rockets into Israeli cities. Israel claimed the number was closer to 4,000. The entire population of Israel in 2006 was then less than half of greater Seoul. Yet in total, some 40 to 50 Israelis lost their lives to rocket attacks in 2006. The rocket strategy of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas did not deter Israeli military operations, nor did it much affect Israel\u2019s strategic options.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Seoul may well be vulnerable to conventional artillery or rocket strikes. But the usual assessments that the city would be destroyed in minutes by North Korea and therefore the South Korean government is now held hostage in its strategic choices are probably not true.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

We are told that China has few choices in restraining North Korea\u2019s nuclear arsenal. But without Chinese money, trade, and technology, North Korea would today have no nuclear-tipped missiles.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Beijing enjoys playing dumb from time to time as it unleashes North Korea to threaten the West and consume American time, money, and military resources in Asia and the Pacific. In truth, China has as much leverage over North Korea as the United States would have over South Korea should it ever choose to set off missiles all over the South China Sea and brag about targeting nearby Chinese cities with nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The American options for pressuring the Chinese and the North Koreans, short of war, are said to be few. Most likely, they are almost endless.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The United States could expel rich elites of the Chinese Communist Party and their children from U.S soil and universities. It could ban Chinese citizens from buying U.S. property.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

America could ratchet up trade sanctions against China, and embargo (or blockade) all commerce with North Korea.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The U.S. could declare solidarity with India in its border disputes with China, organize South Pacific and Asian countries to resist China\u2019s illegal building of bases in the Spratly Islands, and triangulate with Russia over mutual worries about Chinese expansionism.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Massive new regional missile-defense efforts might result in neither China nor North Korea maintaining a first-strike capability over its neighbors.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The last-ditch lever is allowing Japan, South Korea, or perhaps even Taiwan to go nuclear. America\u2019s problems with North Korea would pale in comparison to China\u2019s dilemma of dealing with three democratic nuclear states nearby.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

It is not set in stone that either South Korea or the United States must spend the rest of eternity targeted with nuclear missiles by an unhinged dynasty in North Korea. There are economic, military, and diplomatic options other than all-out war that can dismantle North Korea\u2019s nuclear weapons \u2014 our strategic goal.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

We are in the middle, not at the end, of a long North Korean crisis. But we need to ensure that worries over how the crisis escalates will be all Chinese and North Korean \u2014 and not our own.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review   We are in the middle, not at the end, of a long North Korean crisis.   No one really knows all that much about North Korea\u2019s nuclear or conventional military capability or its strategic agenda. Are its nuclear missiles reliably lethal, are they as long-ranged and accurate as […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1136,275,346,1,102,393],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-2Mq","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":10977,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/whos-really-winning-the-north-korea-standoff\/","url_meta":{"origin":10690,"position":0},"title":"Who\u2019s Really Winning the North Korea Standoff?","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 15, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review There have been wild reports that the United States is considering a \u201cbloody nose\u201d preemptive attack of some sort on North Korea\u2019s nuclear arsenal. Such rumors are unlikely to prove true. Preemptive attacks usually are based on the idea that things will so worsen\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "North Korea"","block_context":{"text":"North Korea","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/north-korea\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10596,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/what-if-south-korea-acted-like-north-korea\/","url_meta":{"origin":10690,"position":1},"title":"What If South Korea Acted Like North Korea?","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 18, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"By Victor Davis Hanson National Review If it threatened to destroy its neighbor \u2014 China \u2014 the neighbor would act. Think of the Korean Peninsula turned upside down. Imagine if there were a South Korean dictatorship that had been in power, as a client of the United States since 1953.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China"","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/china\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10383,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/west-can-neither-live-with-nor-take-out-north-korean-nukes\/","url_meta":{"origin":10690,"position":2},"title":"West Can Neither Live with nor Take Out North Korean Nukes","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 13, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 It\u2019s time for the U.S. and its allies to prepare for a tough, messy confrontation. \u00a0 North Korea recently test-launched a long-range missile capable of reaching Alaska. \u00a0 When North Korea eventually builds a missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, it will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Putin"","block_context":{"text":"Putin","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/putin\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10414,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-korean-games-of-thrones\/","url_meta":{"origin":10690,"position":3},"title":"The Korean Games of Thrones","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 25, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 The time for pious American lectures is over. \u00a0 North Korea North Korea seeks respect on the cheap \u2014 and attention and cash \u2014 that it cannot win the old-fashioned way by the long, hard work of achieving a dynamic economy or an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "South Korea"","block_context":{"text":"South Korea","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/south-korea\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11078,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/our-long-history-of-misjudging-north-korea\/","url_meta":{"origin":10690,"position":4},"title":"Our Long History of Misjudging North Korea","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 23, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review There\u2019s a lot to learn from seventy years of failure to stop the Kim regimes\u2019 aggression. North Korea has befuddled the United States and its Asian allies ever since North Korean leader Kim Il-sung launched the invasion of South Korea in June 1950. Prior\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "MacArthur"","block_context":{"text":"MacArthur","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/macarthur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10453,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/is-kim-jong-un-an-evil-buffoon-or-an-evil-genius\/","url_meta":{"origin":10690,"position":5},"title":"Is Kim Jong-un an Evil Buffoon or an Evil Genius?","author":"victorhanson","date":"August 7, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The Corner The one and only. by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 Kim Jong-un has accomplished something that neither his grandfather nor father pulled off during the last 70 years: bringing an existential threat to the shores of the United States. North Korea\u2019s handful of missiles that are soon\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "North Korea"","block_context":{"text":"North Korea","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/north-korea\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10690"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10690"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10690\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10691,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10690\/revisions\/10691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}