{"id":10596,"date":"2017-09-18T13:29:20","date_gmt":"2017-09-18T20:29:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=10596"},"modified":"2017-09-26T07:53:01","modified_gmt":"2017-09-26T14:53:01","slug":"what-if-south-korea-acted-like-north-korea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/what-if-south-korea-acted-like-north-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"What If South Korea Acted Like North Korea?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Victor Davis Hanson
\nNational Review<\/em><\/p>\n

If it threatened to destroy its neighbor \u2014 China \u2014 the neighbor would act.<\/p>\n

Think of the Korean Peninsula turned upside down.<\/p>\n

Imagine if there were a South Korean dictatorship that had been in power, as a client of the United States since 1953.<\/p>\n

Imagine also that contemporary South Korea was not the rich, democratic home of Kia and Samsung. Instead, envision it as an unfree, pre-industrialized and impoverished failed state, much like North Korea.<\/p>\n

Further envision that the U.S. had delivered financial aid and military assistance to this outlaw regime, which led to Seoul\u2019s possessing several nuclear weapons and a fleet of long-range missiles.<\/p>\n

Next, picture this rogue South Korean dictatorship serially threatening to incinerate its neighbor, North Korea \u2014 and imagine that North Korea was ruled not by the Kim dynasty but by a benign government without nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

Also assume that the South Korean dictatorship would periodically promise to wipe out Chinese cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. The implicit message to the Chinese would be that the impoverished South Koreans were so crazy that they didn\u2019t care whether they, too, went up in smoke \u2014 as long a dozen of their nuclear-tipped missiles could blow up Chinese cities and paralyze the second-largest economy in the world. Assume that these South Korean threats had been going on without consequences for over a decade.<\/p>\n

Finally, in such a fantasy scenario, what if the United States falsely claimed ignorance of much of its South Korean client\u2019s nuclear capability and threats? America instead would plead that it regretted the growing tension and the reckless reactions of China to the nuclear threats against it. Washington would lecture China that the crisis was due in part to its support for its North Korean ally.<\/p>\n

For effect, the United States would occasionally issue declarations of regret and concern over the situation \u2014 even as it warned China not to do anything to provoke America\u2019s provocateur ally.<\/p>\n

In such a fantasy, American security experts and military planners would gleefully factor a roguish nuclear South Korea into U.S. deterrent strategy. The Pentagon would privately collude with the South Korean dictatorship to keep the Chinese occupied and rattled, while the U.S. upped shipments of military weaponry to Seoul and overlooked its thermonuclear upgrades.<\/p>\n

The American military would be delighted that China would be tied down by having an unhinged nuclear dictatorship on its borders, one that periodically threatened to kill millions of Chinese. South Korea would up the ante of its bluster by occasionally test-launching missiles in the direction of its neighbor.<\/p>\n

Question: How long would China tolerate having weapons of mass destruction pointed at its major cities by an unbalanced tyrannical regime?<\/p>\n

In response, would Beijing threaten a nuclear Seoul with a preemptory military strike, even though the Chinese would know that Seoul could first do a lot of nuclear damage?<\/p>\n

Would China conclude that the United States was the real guilty party because it tacitly sanctioned South Korea\u2019s possession of nuclear weapons?<\/p>\n

Would China then warn the U.S. to pressure Seoul to disarm?<\/p>\n

Would Beijing cease all trade with America? Would China boycott, embargo or blockade South Korea?<\/p>\n

Would China be furious that after ensuring that its own client, North Korea, remained non-nuclear and played by the rules, America had deliberately done exactly the opposite: empowering its dictatorial client, South Korea, to become a nuclear power in order to threaten China?<\/p>\n

In other words, if China and North Korea found themselves in the same respective positions of current America and South Korea, the world may well have already seen a preemptive Chinese attack on Seoul to remove its nuclear capability.<\/p>\n

The international community would already have seen China expel the conniving Americans from Chinese embassies, cut trade with the U.S., disrupt American banks, and threaten the use of force against the U.S. mainland.<\/p>\n

The truth of the North Korea missile crisis is not the boilerplate assumption that China is the key to the solution, but rather that China is by design the root of the problem.<\/p>\n

China did not fail to realize that North Korea was developing a nuclear arsenal. Rather, it calculated that North Korea would do exactly what it is now doing, and that such nuclear roguery would serve China\u2019s strategic interests on the Korean peninsula and in its rivalries with both the United States and with America\u2019s allies in Asia.<\/p>\n

In other words, if China were in America\u2019s position, we would have likely witnessed a tragically destructive war a long time ago.<\/p>\n

China should make the necessary corrections now, before things get even worse.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Victor Davis Hanson National Review If it threatened to destroy its neighbor \u2014 China \u2014 the neighbor would act. Think of the Korean Peninsula turned upside down. Imagine if there were a South Korean dictatorship that had been in power, as a client of the United States since 1953.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[275,909,346,846,116,285,1],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-2KU","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":10414,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-korean-games-of-thrones\/","url_meta":{"origin":10596,"position":0},"title":"The Korean Games of Thrones","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 25, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 The time for pious American lectures is over. \u00a0 North Korea North Korea seeks respect on the cheap \u2014 and attention and cash \u2014 that it cannot win the old-fashioned way by the long, hard work of achieving a dynamic economy or an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "South Korea"","block_context":{"text":"South Korea","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/south-korea\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10870,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/will-nuclear-north-korea-survive-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":10596,"position":1},"title":"Will Nuclear North Korea Survive 2018?","author":"victorhanson","date":"January 8, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 Given several rapidly developing geopolitical factors, North Korea may look much different by the end of the new year. \u00a0 For good or evil, we may see radical changes in North Korea in 2018. \u00a0 The beefed-up United Nations sanctions by midyear could\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Trump"","block_context":{"text":"Trump","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/trump\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10690,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/north-korea-knowns-and-unknowns\/","url_meta":{"origin":10596,"position":2},"title":"North Korea Knowns and Unknowns","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 26, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 We are in the middle, not at the end, of a long North Korean crisis. \u00a0 No one really knows all that much about North Korea\u2019s nuclear or conventional military capability or its strategic agenda. Are its nuclear missiles reliably lethal, are they\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Seoul"","block_context":{"text":"Seoul","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/seoul\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11078,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/our-long-history-of-misjudging-north-korea\/","url_meta":{"origin":10596,"position":3},"title":"Our Long History of Misjudging North Korea","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 23, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review There\u2019s a lot to learn from seventy years of failure to stop the Kim regimes\u2019 aggression. North Korea has befuddled the United States and its Asian allies ever since North Korean leader Kim Il-sung launched the invasion of South Korea in June 1950. Prior\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "MacArthur"","block_context":{"text":"MacArthur","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/macarthur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10383,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/west-can-neither-live-with-nor-take-out-north-korean-nukes\/","url_meta":{"origin":10596,"position":4},"title":"West Can Neither Live with nor Take Out North Korean Nukes","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 13, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 It\u2019s time for the U.S. and its allies to prepare for a tough, messy confrontation. \u00a0 North Korea recently test-launched a long-range missile capable of reaching Alaska. \u00a0 When North Korea eventually builds a missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, it will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Putin"","block_context":{"text":"Putin","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/putin\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5813,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/north-korean-mythologies\/","url_meta":{"origin":10596,"position":5},"title":"North Korean Mythologies","author":"victorhanson","date":"April 20, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson PJ Media Much of what is written about the North Korean crisis seems to me little more than fantasy. Let us examine the mythologies. 1) China is a responsible partner in checking North Korea and, of course, does not want war. It may well be true\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "North Korea"","block_context":{"text":"North Korea","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/north-korea\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10596"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10596"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10596\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10615,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10596\/revisions\/10615"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}